Thailand Wind Energy Market Size & Share Analysis - Growth Trends And Forecast (2025 - 2030)

Thailand Wind Energy Market Trends and Insights

Government Renewable Capacity Targets to 2036

The Power Development Plan 2024 mandates 5.345 GW of cumulative wind additions by 2037, tripling the present fleet and positioning wind behind solar as the grid’s second-largest renewable source.^{[1]Ministry of Energy Thailand, “Power Development Plan 2024,” energy.go.th} Reducing dependence on imported liquefied natural gas underpins the policy, yet average site wind speeds of 2.8–4.0 m/s at 10 m hub heights demand tall turbines, inflating capex. Maintaining the THB 3.10 tariff through 2030 shields returns, and the September 2024 auction drew 12 bidders chasing 600 MW, underscoring confidence despite sub-30% capacity factors. Streamlined environmental reviews now close within 12 months for ≤90 MW projects, helping developers halve pre-construction time. The International Energy Agency lifted Thailand’s renewable forecast by 26% in 2024, chiefly on stronger wind delivery signals.

Competitive FiT / Auction Schemes Attracting IPP Capital

A two-track incentive, feed-in tariffs for sub-10 MW plants and auctions for larger arrays, mobilized THB 80 billion in committed wind outlays since 2022. The 25-year tariff stands 40% above wholesale prices, enabling IPPs to secure low-cost multilateral debt; for instance, the Asian Development Bank syndicated USD 820 million to Gulf Energy in November 2024.^{[2]Asian Development Bank, “Thailand Wind Atlas,” adb.org} Auction caps of 90 MW curb market dominance, yet joint ventures allow scale, as shown by Gulf’s 208 MW tie-up with Alpha Energy announced in September 2025. Non-firm dispatch clauses clip realized tariffs during solar midday peaks, trimming payouts by nearly 15 %. Ongoing litigation over bid scoring indicates investor sensitivity to transparent oversight.

Falling LCOE from Larger Turbines & Supply-Chain Scale

Levelized cost dropped from USD 0.095 /kWh in 2020 to USD 0.070 /kWh in 2024 for projects employing 3-6 MW machines at 80 m hub heights. Goldwind’s 286 MW order at roughly USD 0.85 million per MW underscores how Chinese makers underprice European rivals by 20 %. A 5 MW turbine with a 160 m rotor yields 35 % more annual energy than a 2.5 MW unit at identical sites, cutting cost per megawatt-hour by one-quarter.^{[3]International Renewable Energy Agency, “Renewable Cost Database 2024,” irena.org} Acciona Energía’s 436 MW pipeline indicates that international developers accept Thailand’s resource if towers top 100 m. Importing 120 m towers from Vietnam or China adds about 12 % to logistics bills, limiting further cost relief.

Corporate REC Demand & Green-PPA Boom

The Third Party Access framework, launched in March 2025, opened 2 GW for direct corporate PPAs, driving demand from export-oriented manufacturers in the Eastern Economic Corridor.^{[4]Energy Regulatory Commission, “Renewable Auction Rules,” erc.or.th} Wheeling charges of THB 1.07 per kWh inflate delivered tariffs, yet firms such as PTT Global Chemical accept 10-year contracts at THB 3.50 per kWh to secure renewable-energy certificates. Wind’s evening output profile balances solar, letting plants meet night-shift sustainability targets. Energy Absolute’s 50 MW bilateral deal in 2024 proved tariff headroom despite the wheeling premium. Mandatory 30% renewable procurement for state-owned entities by 2030 could triple REC demand within five years.

Low Average On-Shore Wind Speed Zones

National mean winds of 2.8–4.0 m/s at 10 m classify most sites as Wind Class 1, forcing 100 m hub heights and lifting capex by nearly 18% versus Class 3 sites in Vietnam. Capacity factors averaged 28 % in 2024, roughly 1,400 full-load hours below the global norm; hence, the Thailand wind energy market relies on tariffs 30 % above peers to attain 10–11 % equity returns. Central and southern zones exhibit sub-5 m/s winds even at 80 m, explaining why 85 % of projects cluster in the northeast. Ember’s 2024 review noted wind’s LCOE still trails solar’s by at least 25 % under Thai conditions.

Rural Grid Bottlenecks & Curtailment Risk

Northeastern 115 kV substations hit evening limits in 2024, curbing about 12 % of potential wind output. A THB 50 billion upgrade plan runs to 2029, leaving a near-term dispatch squeeze.^{[5]Provincial Electricity Authority, “Grid Status Report 2024,” pea.co.th} Non-firm PPAs empower EGAT to curtail wind during solar peaks without compensation, cutting realized tariffs to THB 2.65 /kWh. Storage uptake is scant, with <200 MWh installed nationally, magnifying curtailment risk.

Segment Analysis

By Location: Onshore Monopoly Persists as Offshore Awaits Economics

Onshore assets represented the entire Thailand wind energy market size of 1.54 GW in 2024, and onshore additions are slated to grow 7.1% CAGR to 2030 under the 600 MW second-phase auction. Offshore resource studies show 5.5–6.0 m/s winds in 50–80 m waters, but breakeven tariffs exceed THB 5.00 /kWh, well above current policy support. Northeastern onshore sites lie near 115 kV lines, keeping grid-tie costs at THB 8 million /MW compared with THB 25 million /MW for subsea cables. Acciona Energía’s 436 MW commitment underscores sustained developer preference for land-based projects that clear USD 0.070 /kWh LCOE at 80 m hub heights.

Developers anticipate a 200 MW offshore pilot in 2027, yet commercial deployment will likely trail the forecast window because floating foundations add USD 1.2 million /MW. Consequently, onshore capacity should still control at least a 95% Thailand wind energy market share by 2030 while offshore remains a policy aspiration.

Note: Segment shares of all individual segments available upon report purchase

By Turbine Capacity: Repowering Wave Shifts Fleet to Mid-Range Machines

Units ≤3 MW held 80.5% of Thailand's wind energy market share in 2024, reflecting early-2010s builds constrained by 90 MW contract caps. The 3-6 MW class is poised for 14.8% CAGR because larger rotors improve energy capture in 6 m/s wind regimes, driving LCOE down to roughly USD 0.070 /kWh. Goldwind's 286 MW supply deal confirms Chinese OEM pricing at 0.85 million USD /MW, 20 % below European quotes.

Turbines above 6 MW face logistical limits because blade lengths above 75 m exceed rural-road clearances, and 90 MW PPA caps curb unit counts, trimming economies of scale. Until rules evolve, mid-range machines will dominate new-build decisions, pushing the ≤3 MW fleet toward 60% of cumulative installed base by 2030 as repowering progresses.

By Application: Utility-Scale Dominance Reflects PPA Certainty

Utility-scale plants accounted for 90.9% of the Thailand wind energy market size in 2024, protected by 25-year EGAT PPAs that lock 4.5–5.5 % debt costs. Commercial–industrial projects formed about 8 % and battle wheeling fees of THB 1.07 /kWh, inflating delivered power by 35%. Community ventures remain niche at <20 MW, hamstrung by funding gaps despite a proposed THB 5 billion loan facility.

Utility-scale additions will keep a 9.7% CAGR through 2030 on the back of the 600 MW auction, whereas commercial buyers will selectively sign PPAs where evening wind output dovetails with production shifts. Community capacity could rise toward 80 MW by 2030, but will stay below 3 % Thailand's wind energy market share.

Note: Segment shares of all individual segments available upon report purchase

Geography Analysis

Wind development is heaviest in the northeastern provinces of Nakhon Ratchasima and Chaiyaphum, where average hub-height winds exceed 6 m/s and accessible ridgelines simplify crane operations. These two provinces alone host most commissioned capacity and pending licenses, underscoring their strategic significance within the Thailand wind energy market. Streamlined zoning and established service roads shorten construction cycles, although recent court-mandated reviews of agricultural-land leases create procedural delays.

Southern coastal provinces such as Nakhon Si Thammarat and Songkhla present the next frontier, with lidar studies confirming 1,374 MW of technical on-shore potential. Their proximity to petrochemical clusters offers embedded demand and short delivery corridors, which support offtake agreements with refinery and export-manufacturing tenants. Transmission expansion plans scheduled for completion by 2028 will allow bulk power transfers northward, extending market reach beyond provincial boundaries.

Central and western regions exhibit weaker wind regimes, generally below 5 m/s at 80 meters, limiting immediate commercial viability. Land-use conflicts also arise from dense agriculture and urban growth, prompting many developers to pivot toward rooftop solar in those zones. Nevertheless, industrial buyers around Bangkok still contract wind output aggregated from distant provinces through the emerging direct-purchase framework. This virtual offtake mechanism means all regions ultimately influence energy flows and price discovery across the Thailand wind energy market.