Residential Real Estate Market in Scandinavian Countries - Growth, Trends, and Forecast (2020 - 2025)

The residential real estate market Scandinavia is segmented by Type (condominiums, villas, and others), key cities and other urban, suburban and rural markets.

Market Snapshot

Study Period:

2016-2025

Base Year:

2019

CAGR:

9.58 %

Major Players:

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Market Overview

Scandinavian capitals are growing rapidly and are projected to be among the fastest-growing cities in Europe in the coming years. Rising house demand has not been matched by construction over a longer time period due to taxes, regulation and lack/mismatch of incentives. However, the increase in population and immigration is expected to bring growth in the housing market in countries such as Sweden and Norway. 

The Swedish economy grew by about 2.3% in 2018. The country faced a declining demand in 2018 and the total number of new houses sold in the country declined by 4.9% year on year to 52,599 units. The outlook for 2019 doesn’t seem very bright as the country is like to witness a decrease in residential construction. Areas like the great Stockholm area saw a sharp decline of around 35% in the housing construction. However, Sweden is witnessing an increased interest from international investors for rental apartments.

Norway’s economy grew by about 1.8% in 2018 and is projected to grow by 2% in 2019. The residential market in Norway is shaped by a long-time policy goal of homeownership, and up to 85 percent of citizens own their own home, which is usually lightly taxed. Norway’s housing market has been witnessing a steady decline in housing prices; however, the Norwegian residential real estate market seems to be stabilizing since the last quarter of 2019 due to increasing interest rates and stricter mortgage rules. The country witnessed an increase of 4.6% in the residential property sales to 65,214 units in the first three quarters of 2019. The supply of new homes has varied, but the larger cities like Oslo have a fair supply of previously industrial sites being changed to new residential areas. Also, some municipalities bordering the big cities, especially Oslo, have zoned a lot of new residential land plots that attract a healthy demand.

In 2018, Denmark’s economy grew by around 1.2% and the economy is expected to expand by 1.6% in 2019. The country is currently facing a housing shortage and residential construction is not keeping up with the growing population. The problem is intense especially in cities such as Copenhagen. However, the country is experiencing a rising demand for purpose-built rented accommodation.

Scope of the Report

This report aims to provide a detailed analysis of the Scandinavian residential real estate market. It focuses on the market dynamics, technological trends, insights and government initiatives taken in the residential real estate sector. Also, it analyses the key players present in the market and the competitive landscape in the Scandinavian residential real estate market.

Key Cities
Sweden
Norway
Denmark

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Key Market Trends

Shortage of New Housing Units in Scandinavian Countries Likely to Increase Demand

The Scandinavian countries are facing a shortage in the housing units and the issue is more prominent in the Swedish housing market, primarily in its metropolitan regions. The level of additional new homes has been very low, while population growth has been high and, according to forecasts, this will continue. 

Housing prices in Sweden are decreasing due to strict mortgage requirements; deteriorating investor confidence and slowing economic growth. Sweden’s nationwide house price index fell by 1.53 during 2018, in contrast to year on year rises of 7.57% in 2017.

However, in Denmark, the house prices continue to rise, despite falling demand due to the introduction of tighter lending standards and slowing economic growth. The price index of one-family houses in Denmark increased by a modest 3.28% in 2018, after year on year increases of 4.01% in 2017.

Norway’s housing market is currently witnessing a stable demand, but the country has weak construction activity, stricter mortgage rules, and gradually rising mortgage rates. The country’s house price index increased by 2.27% during 2018, after year on year rises of 0.73% in 2017.

An increase in housing price indexes in these countries is likely to boost more investor confidence in the Scandinavian countries which is likely to increase demand for new housing construction. 

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Rising Demand for Rental Apartments in Denmark

Amongst the Scandinavian countries, Denmark has shown a rising trend for rental accommodation. Rental housing in Denmark serves different social groups, from low income to medium income levels.

Urban markets with restricted land resources and strict zoning regulations having housing shortages drive up rents and reduce accessibility to the social housing which is acting as a driver for the private rental housing sector for low- and middle-income groups.

In 2019 the average house rent for general housing in Denmark was 833 DKK per. m2 which is higher than that in 2018. The rental yields in Denmark have also recovered in Denmark in recent years, as rents have risen faster than house prices. The average gross rental yields in Copenhagen typically range from 4.84% to 5.31%, In general, family housing,  the average rent of houses increased to is DKK 811. per. m2 compared to DKK 802 per m2 in 2018. In ordinary older homes, the average rent has risen by 0.6% in 2018. In ordinary youth housing, the average rent has risen by 1.3% to DKK 928 per person. m2. By comparison, the average rental price levels witnessed an increase of nearly rose in 2018.

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Competitive Landscape

The residential real estate market in Scandinavian countries is competitive. Competition and pricing have increased strongly, and new investors and developers have entered the market and both demand and supply are increasing. Interest rates and financing terms are creating a very attractive investment environment for the companies.

Table Of Contents

  1. 1. Introduction

    1. 1.1 Study Assumptions

    2. 1.2 Scope of the Study

  2. 2. Research Methodology

  3. 3. Executive Summary

  4. 4. Market Insights

    1. 4.1 Current Economic Scenario and Consumer Sentiment

    2. 4.2 Residential Real Estate Buying Trends - Socioeconomic and Demogpaphic Insights

    3. 4.3 Government Initatives, Regulatory Aspects for Residential Real Estate Sector

    4. 4.4 Insights on size of real estate lending and loan to value trends

    5. 4.5 Insights on interest rate regime for general economy, and real estate lending

    6. 4.6 Insights on rental yields in residential real estate segment

    7. 4.7 Insights on captial market penetration and REIT presence in residential real estate

    8. 4.8 Insights on affordable housing support provided by government and public-private partnerships

    9. 4.9 Insights on real estate tech and startups active in real estate segment (broking, social media, facility management, property management)

    10. 4.10 Market Dynamics

      1. 4.10.1 Drivers

      2. 4.10.2 Restraints

      3. 4.10.3 Opportunities

      4. 4.10.4 Challenges

  5. 5. Market Segmentation

    1. 5.1 Quantitative and Qualitative Commentary on Supply and Demand (Condominiums, Villas, Others)

    2. 5.2 Quantitative and Qualitative Commentary on Supply and Demand (Key Cities)

    3. 5.3 Key Cities

      1. 5.3.1 Sweden

      2. 5.3.2 Norway

      3. 5.3.3 Denmark

    4. 5.4 Quantitative and Qualitative Commentary on Transaction Volumes (covering property types and key cities, other urban, sub-urban and key rural markets

  6. 6. Competitve Landscape

    1. 6.1 Overview (Market Concentration and Major Players)

    2. 6.2 Company Profiles

      1. 6.2.1 Riksbyggen Ek For

      2. 6.2.2 Fastighets AB Balder

      3. 6.2.3 L E Lundbergforetagen AB

      4. 6.2.4 Akelius Residential Property AB

      5. 6.2.5 Oscar Properties Holding AB

      6. 6.2.6 Danish Homes

      7. 6.2.7 EDC Maeglerne

      8. 6.2.8 Dades

      9. 6.2.9 A. Enggaard A/S

      10. 6.2.10 ELF Development A/S

      11. 6.2.11 Betonmastaehre AS

      12. 6.2.12 OBOS BBL

      13. 6.2.13 Veidekke ASA

      14. 6.2.14 Krogsveen Eiendomsmegling

      15. 6.2.15 Utleiemegleren

    3. *List Not Exhaustive
  7. 7. Future of the Market and Analyst Recommendations

  8. 8. Disclaimer

  9. 9. About Us

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