Poland Wind Energy Market Size & Share Analysis - Growth Trends And Forecast (2025 - 2030)

Poland Wind Energy Market Trends and Insights

Accelerated 2025–2027 CfD Auctions Pipeline

The December 2025 auction will award 4 GW of offshore contracts, each guaranteeing 25-year inflation-protected tariffs that derisk financing and stimulate early turbine orders.^{[1]Ørsted A/S, “Baltica Offshore Wind Farm Factsheet,” orsted.com} A staggered schedule through 2027 sustains visibility for OEM investments such as Vestas’ Szczecin plants. Auction rules demand pre-arranged grid-connection agreements, effectively filtering out speculative bids. Onshore baskets remain smaller because the 10H rule caps available land, yet reform discussions signal potential upside. The predictable auction cadence underpins the Poland wind energy market by smoothing revenue expectations and lowering the cost of capital.

EU Fit-for-55 and REPowerEU Compliance Pressure

Poland’s National Recovery and Resilience Plan pledges 5.9 GW offshore by 2030 and 11 GW by 2040, forcing state utilities to prioritize wind development over coal refurbishments.^{[2]Polskie Sieci Elektroenergetyczne, “Development Plan 2023–2032,” pge.pl} The European Commission links access to EU grants with renewable deployment milestones, ensuring that price caps in future auctions mirror true levelized costs. PSE’s USD 17 billion grid program, half funded by the Connecting Europe Facility, will add 4,850 km of 400 kV lines and a north–south HVDC link by 2030. New cross-border interconnectors with Germany and Lithuania widen arbitrage options for surplus wind. Regulatory pressure, therefore, accelerates manufacturing decisions, fosters technology transfer, and deepens market liquidity.

Declining LCOE of ≥5 MW Onshore Turbines

European onshore LCOE fell to USD 33–55/MWh in 2024 as developers adopted 5–6 MW platforms such as the Nordex N175/6.X with hybrid towers that cut civil costs 15–20%. Poland’s auction cap of PLN 319.04/MWh offers a comfortable margin for these machines once permitting barriers ease. Vestas’ 2025 acquisition of the Goleniów blade plant allows local manufacture of V172-7.2 MW blades, trimming logistics lead times and import fees. Turbine upsizing reduces foundation count per project, compressing construction schedules. Gains are contingent on modifying the 10H rule because larger rotors need wider setbacks, yet draft reforms promise designated acceleration zones with 12-month permit windows.

Grid-Balancing Revenues from Offshore-to-Hydrogen Pilots

PGE and Ørsted plan to pair 1 GW of electrolysis with Baltica 2 and 3, channeling curtailed power into hydrogen for Orlen’s Gdańsk refinery and improving project IRR by 1–2 percentage points. Direct coupling sidesteps coastal grid congestion and captures full price spreads between peak and off-peak hours. Equinor’s Bałtyk 1 is studying a similar configuration at Gdynia port. Early success could unlock a secondary revenue stream that stabilizes the Poland wind energy market during periods of negative pricing.

Chronic 400 kV Grid Bottlenecks

PSE rejected 83.6 GW of connection requests in 2023 because northern substations lack export capacity to demand centers in Warsaw and Silesia.^{[3]PGE Baltica, “Grid Connection Agreements for Offshore Projects,” pgebaltica.pl} Relief will arrive only after the HVDC backbone and 4,850 km of new 400 kV lines enter service between 2028 and 2030. Early offshore projects such as Baltica 2 secured slots before saturation, giving them superior economics. Later projects must co-locate storage or hydrogen to dodge curtailment, which inflates capital needs and slows build-out in the Polish wind energy market.

Zloty-Denominated Financing Volatility

Most local lenders price debt in Polish zloty, exposing projects without euro-pegged CfDs to currency swings that can widen interest spreads by 150–200 basis points. Developers hedge through cross-currency swaps that add 2–3 USD/MWh to levelized costs. The zloty has traded in a 12% band against the euro since 2023, and policy tightening cycles amplify volatility. Stable euro-denominated tariffs in forthcoming auctions could ease this funding headwind.

Segment Analysis

By Location: Offshore Momentum Versus Onshore Constraints

Offshore capacity will jump from zero to 6 GW by 2030, driven by flagship projects such as Baltica 2 at 1.5 GW and Baltic Power at 1.2 GW. The Poland wind energy market will therefore depend increasingly on seabed leases where central permitting bypasses municipal vetoes. Early offshore projects enjoy grid slots yet still plan 1 GW of electrolyzers to handle curtailment.

Onshore installations remain limited to the repowering of pre-2016 farms because the 10H rule excludes 99% of land. Draft reforms promise 12-month permits in acceleration zones, but final approval rests with local councils. Consequently, developers with strong municipal ties can unlock pockets of capacity, while others pivot offshore. The result is a bifurcated Poland wind energy market in which near-term growth concentrates at sea and onshore advances in step with regulatory clarity.

Note: Segment shares of all individual segments available upon report purchase

By Turbine Capacity: Rise of ≥6 MW Platforms

Turbines above 6 MW will command future orders as offshore developers install Siemens Gamesa 14 MW and Vestas V236-15 MW units that deliver capacity factors above 50% in Baltic conditions. The Poland wind energy market size for this segment is forecast to rise sharply once Baltica 2 deploys 107 machines by 2027.

Legacy 3-6 MW turbines still dominate the operating fleet with a 59.5% share in 2024, but will lose ground as repowering and offshore phases advance. Nordex’s 148 MW onshore contract in 2024 shows continuing demand for mid-range capacity where setback rules restrict tower heights. Local blade production in Szczecin strengthens the supply chain for larger units, shortening lead times and reducing transport costs.

By Application: Utility Scale Dominance and Community Upside

Utility-scale assets held 90.1% of 2024 applications, reflecting the capital strength of PGE, Orlen, and foreign partners such as Ørsted. Their projects align with national targets and secure CfDs that underpin bankability.

Community wind, while small, is the fastest-growing niche at 25.7% CAGR to 2030. Prosumer law reforms now let municipalities buy equity stakes and share revenues, boosting local acceptance. However, higher upfront costs and grid-access complexity slow uptake compared with rooftop solar. The Poland wind energy industry may see accelerated community participation once standard templates for co-investment and long-term offtake mature.

Note: Segment shares of all individual segments available upon report purchase

Geography Analysis

Northern voivodeships anchor growth thanks to Baltic Sea resources that yield offshore capacity factors above 50%. Szczecin and Gdańsk shipyards host new nacelle, blade, and substation factories that add 2,500 jobs by 2026. Grid congestion remains acute because 400 kV corridors were built for coal in the south, prompting hydrogen and battery pilots as interim relief.

Central regions such as Wielkopolskie and Łódzkie possess moderate wind speeds but face 10H setbacks. The February 2025 draft acceleration law seeks to pre-zone land where councils approve projects within one year, potentially unlocking 2–3 GW by 2030.^{[4]Dentons, “Poland’s Renewable Acceleration Areas Draft Act,” dentons.com}

Southern voivodeships lack wind resource yet will import offshore power via a north–south HVDC link by 2030. This infrastructure balances geographic disparities, enabling surplus Baltic output to feed industrial clusters in Katowice and Kraków. Cross-border lines with Germany and Lithuania further diversify offtake routes, improving price spreads for operators in the Polish wind energy market.