Offshore Drilling Rigs Market Size & Share Analysis - Growth Trends and Forecast (2026 - 2031)

Global Offshore Drilling Rigs Market Trends and Insights

Increasing Global Energy Demand

Oil and gas are expected to retain a combined 52% share of the global energy mix through 2030, creating a durable baseload for offshore drilling campaigns.^{[1] International Energy Agency, “World Energy Outlook 2025,” iea.org} ADNOC Drilling plans to grow its fleet to 125 rigs by 2028 to help the UAE hit 5 million bpd production capacity, illustrating how national oil companies backstop demand.^{[2]ADNOC Drilling, “Fleet Expansion Announcement,” adnocdrillingir.ae} India’s ONGC is extending jack-up charters in the Krishna-Godavari basin to preserve output from aging wells, reinforcing the shallow-water importance in energy-hungry emerging economies. Petrobras secured 12 drillships for pre-salt operations, signaling that state-backed operators can sustain drilling through price cycles.^{[3]Petrobras, “Pre-Salt Drilling Program Update,” investidorpetrobras.com.br} This bifurcation, OECD efficiency versus non-OECD expansion, results in a two-tier demand pattern where jack-ups cater to incremental volumes in Asia while premium floaters chase frontier deepwater barrels.

Exploration of Untapped Offshore Reserves

Namibia’s Orange Basin holds an estimated 10 billion barrels of recoverable resources, with TotalEnergies and Shell collectively deploying four drillships during 2024-2025. Guyana’s Stabroek block surpassed 11 billion barrels discovered, requiring a continuous fleet of six drillships to sustain its ramp-up past 640,000 bpd. These successes are lowering perceived risk and supporting well costs above USD 100 million when success probabilities rise. Angola’s USD 6 billion Kaminho project will use two drillships over four years, highlighting the willingness to fund frontier deepwater when breakevens sit near USD 35 per barrel. Modern drillships capable of 10,000-foot water depths and 20,000-psi HPHT ratings thus form the growth engine of the offshore drilling rigs market.

Rising Deep- & Ultra-Deepwater Discoveries in South America & Africa

Brazil’s Atapu and Sépia fields reached a combined 500,000 bpd in 2025, underpinned by eight active drillships in up to 7,000-foot waters. Mozambique’s Coral Sul FLNG now exports gas from a 450 billion-cubic-meter resource, with more floating LNG trains planned. Namibia’s momentum signals that South America and Africa will collectively account for 40% of ultra-deepwater rig demand by 2026. The commercial viability of these plays has lowered pre-salt breakevens to USD 35 per barrel, rivaling onshore Middle East assets and making ultra-deepwater a mainstream portfolio component. Drillship utilization has therefore climbed above 90%, underpinning day rates near USD 500,000 for leading-edge units.

Decommissioning Backlog Driving Rig-Repurposing Demand

The North Sea faces a GBP 20 billion (USD 25 billion) decommissioning liability, opening multi-year contracts for jack-ups and heavy-lift vessels. The Gulf of Mexico holds 3,800 idle wells, prompting new bonding rules that accelerate plug-and-abandon work. Semi-submersibles are being retrofitted for CCS injection, exemplified by Equinor’s Northern Lights project that sequesters 1.5 million t of CO₂ annually. The retrofit niche extends asset life while addressing emissions mandates, allowing contractors to diversify revenue streams beyond hydrocarbon extraction. As regulators tighten removal deadlines, a steady pipeline of end-of-life wells supports baseline demand for adaptable rigs.

Environmental Concerns & Stricter ESG Regulation

From 2025, the EU’s Emissions Trading System extends to offshore vessels, adding up to USD 10 million per year in carbon costs for rigs lacking abatement technology. The U.S. EPA also tightened drilling-fluid discharge norms, increasing equipment spend by 15-20%. These mandates prompted Transocean to cold-stack three legacy semi-subs that were uneconomical to upgrade. Contractors with hybrid power packs and real-time emissions monitoring now enjoy bidding advantages as operators integrate ESG metrics into sourcing. Norway’s Petroleum Safety Authority has introduced continuous methane monitoring requirements, adding further compliance layers for North Sea rigs.

Crude-Oil Price Volatility Impacting CAPEX Cycles

Brent oscillated between USD 70-90 per barrel during 2024-2025, leading majors to defer 15 offshore FIDs worth USD 40 billion. Independent E&Ps cut offshore drilling spend by 12% in 2025, instead favoring short-cycle shale. Saudi Aramco released eight jack-ups in 2024 amid revised production targets, demonstrating even state players’ responsiveness to OPEC+ quotas. Although national oil companies continue multiyear programs, the investment stop-start among independents injects scheduling uncertainty for contractors and complicates fleet-planning decisions.

Segment Analysis

By Rig Type: Drillships Lead Growth Despite Jack-Up Dominance

Jack-ups controlled 43.9% of the offshore drilling rigs market share in 2025, supported by high utilization in the Persian Gulf, Southeast Asia, and the Gulf of Mexico. In contrast, drillships are forecast to post a 7.2% CAGR through 2031, pushing the offshore drilling rigs market size for this segment to an expected USD 18 billion by the end-year window. Premium units fetch USD 500,000-day rates when equipped for 20,000-psi HPHT wells, such as Transocean’s Deepwater Atlas, which began a three-year Equinor contract in 2025.^{[4]Equinor, “Deepwater Atlas Contract,” equinor.com} Semi-submersibles filled mid-water campaigns with 78% utilization in 2025, largely for appraisal work in West Africa and the Far North Sea. The continuing retirement of vintage rigs concentrates demand on high-specification assets, promoting stronger pricing power for contractors that modernize their fleets.

The offshore drilling rigs market trajectory underscores a pivot toward fleet standardization and digital enablement. Samsung Heavy Industries delivered two newbuild drillships in 2024-2025 that immediately entered Petrobras’ pre-salt pool, evidencing thin slack in the premium floater segment. Conversely, jack-up oversupply in Southeast Asia pressured Borr Drilling to redeploy four units to the Middle East in 2025, chasing rates 25% higher than in Thailand. Global jack-up utilization was 82% in late 2025 versus 91% for floaters, confirming that shallow-water capacity is absorbing the demand upswing more slowly than deepwater.

Note: Segment shares of all individual segments available upon report purchase

By Water Depth: Ultra-Deepwater Outpaces Shallow

Shallow-water programs contributed 52.5% of 2025 revenue, yet the ultra-deepwater segment is set to outgrow it at a 9.8% CAGR. That trajectory would lift ultra-deepwater’s offshore drilling rigs market size past USD 20 billion by 2031. Anchor, Chevron’s 20,000-psi Gulf of Mexico development, became the first HPHT field in 5,000-foot water, showcasing technical advances that unlock extreme regimes. Deepwater projects between 400 and 5,000 feet are transitioning toward subsea tiebacks to existing hubs, reducing new-well counts but extending rig campaigns via workovers. Shell’s Whale field connected fifteen wells to a legacy platform through a 27-mile flowline, cutting capital intensity by 30%.

Ultra-deepwater’s rapid growth is anchored in reserve quality. Petrobras’ Bacalhau field, which hit first oil in 2024 and is forecast to plateau at 220,000 bpd, equals 10% of Brazil’s offshore output. Namibia’s Venus appraisal results could yield a multi-train FPSO development that sustains four drillships through 2030. Across these plays, well productivity offsets higher rig-day economics, resulting in a durable demand channel that compensates for the more mature shallow-water landscape.

Note: Segment shares of all individual segments available upon report purchase

Geography Analysis

Asia-Pacific retained 37.6% revenue in 2025 thanks to Thailand, Vietnam, and India, and remains the fastest-growing region at 4.1% CAGR through 2031. PTTEP awarded three jack-up contracts in 2025 to extend life in the Gulf of Thailand, while PetroVietnam kept five rigs active on Bach Ho and Cuu Long, compensating for territorial constraints that slow frontier exploration. India’s ONGC extended multiple jack-ups to guard against import dependence, backing the government’s 1 million bpd domestic output goal by 2030. China’s CNOOC deployed six floaters to South China Sea gas fields to feed the Greater Bay Area’s industrial demand, while Woodside advances the Scarborough gas tieback that could enter final investment decision in 2026.

North America showed divergent trends. The U.S. Gulf of Mexico focused on subsea tieback projects, flattening rig demand, whereas Mexico’s Pemex secured three jack-up contracts in 2024-2025 to stabilize 1.8 million bpd output. South America remained dominated by Brazil and Guyana. Petrobras operated twelve drillships to hold production above 3 million bpd, while Guyana’s Stabroek block kept six floaters busy across development and exploration wells. Trinidad’s shallow-water gas wells support Atlantic LNG throughput, sustaining moderate jack-up utilization.

Europe’s activity centered on Norway, where Equinor deployed digital twins on Johan Sverdrup to shave 15% off non-productive time. The UK Continental Shelf prioritized decommissioning, letting four jack-ups work well-abandonment campaigns. The Middle East maintained high shallow-water intensity: ADNOC Drilling’s 125-rig program underpins a 5 million bpd target, Qatar’s North Field East gas expansion required six jack-ups in 2025, and Saudi Aramco’s rig count fluctuated with OPEC+ output ceilings. Africa’s ultra-deepwater frontier surged, led by Namibia and Angola. TotalEnergies’ Kaminho development and Nigeria’s Bonga Southwest appraisal reinforced the continent’s longer-term rig demand profile.