Kazakhstan Mining Market Size and Share
Market Overview
| Study Period | 2021 - 2031 |
|---|---|
| Base Year For Estimation | 2025 |
| Forecast Data Period | 2026 - 2031 |
| Market Size (2026) | USD 32.33 Billion |
| Market Size (2031) | USD 51.81 Billion |
| Growth Rate (2026 - 2031) | 9.89% CAGR |
| Market Concentration | Medium |
Major Players *Disclaimer: Major Players sorted in no particular order Image © Mordor Intelligence. Reuse requires attribution under CC BY 4.0. | |
Kazakhstan Mining Market Analysis by Mordor Intelligence
The Kazakhstan Mining Market size is estimated at USD 32.33 billion in 2026, and is expected to reach USD 51.81 billion by 2031, at a CAGR of 9.89% during the forecast period (2026-2031). Electric-vehicle‐driven demand for copper and battery metals, government-backed uranium capacity additions, and lower freight costs on the Khorgos-Dostyk rail corridor are widening profit pools and drawing fresh capital. State incentives that blend 10-year tax holidays with 51% local-content requirements are accelerating downstream investments while shielding strategic minerals from spot-price swings. Digital technologies—autonomous haulage, real-time ore sorting, and predictive maintenance—are improving asset utilization, especially at surface coal and copper operations. Meanwhile, exploration spending is shifting toward polymetallic prospects in the Altai and lithium brines under the Caspian seabed, signaling a pivot from bulk commodities to value-added critical materials.
Key Report Takeaways
- By mineral type, copper led with 38.80% of Kazakhstan mining market share in 2025, while the non-ferrous metal segment is expanding at a 10.56% CAGR through 2031.
- By mining method, surface (open-pit) commanded 57.80% of volume in 2025, whereas in-situ leach is advancing at a 10.22% CAGR through 2031.
- By end-user industry, steel and alloy production absorbed 30.10% of mined output in 2025; the “Other End-user Industries” segment is forecast to grow at an 11.28% CAGR to 2031.
Note: Market size and forecast figures in this report are generated using Mordor Intelligence’s proprietary estimation framework, updated with the latest available data and insights as of January 2026.
Kazakhstan Mining Market Trends and Insights
Drivers Impact Analysis
| Driver | (~) % Impact on CAGR Forecast | Geographic Relevance | Impact Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|
| Surge in Global Copper Demand | +2.1% | Global, with strongest pull from China and EU battery-materials hubs | Medium term (2-4 years) |
| Government-Led Uranium Expansion Plans | +1.8% | National, concentrated in Turkestan and Kyzylorda oblasts | Long term (≥ 4 years) |
| Modernisation of Coal-Fired Power Fleet | +1.3% | National, with spillover to Central Asian power grids | Medium term (2-4 years) |
| Belt and Road Rail Upgrades Slash Export Costs | +2.4% | National, with direct impact on Khorgos-Dostyk corridor and Caspian transshipment | Short term (≤ 2 years) |
| Increasing Exploration of Mining Reserves | +1.5% | National, early gains in Pavlodar, East Kazakhstan, and Mangystau regions | Long term (≥ 4 years) |
| Source: Mordor Intelligence | |||
Surge in Global Copper Demand
Copper consumption for electric-vehicle wiring and grid upgrades is pulling 1.2 million tonnes of additional refined copper into the market by 2028. Kazakhstan’s Bozshakol and Aktogay mines produced 285,000 tonnes in 2025, ranking the country 11th worldwide. Rail electrification at Khorgos cut transit times to Chinese smelters from 21 days to 14 days, lowering landed costs by USD 120-150 per tonne and enabling sellers to capture a 3-4% price premium over seaborne cargoes. Newly drilled resources in the Balkhash basin add 4.8 million tonnes of inferred copper, supporting a moderate annual output hike through 2030.
Government-Led Uranium Expansion Plans
Kazatomprom approved USD 1.2 billion for six new in-situ leach wellfields and sulfuric-acid capacity, seeking 28,000 tonnes of uranium by 2028—roughly 43% of global supply. With 62 gigawatts of nuclear capacity under construction in China, India, and the UAE, long-term fuel contracts provide predictable demand. In-situ leach cuts capital intensity by up to 50% and slashes water use in the arid Chu-Sarysu basin. Capturing conversion margins at the Ulba Metallurgical Plant could add USD 400-500 million in annual export value by 2030.
Modernisation of Coal-Fired Power Fleet
Coal still supplies 68% of Kazakhstan’s electricity, yet average plant efficiency trails modern standards at just 32%. A USD 3.8 billion retrofit program launched in 2025 targets 12 gigawatts at Ekibastuz, Almaty, and Shardara, aiming for 15-18% lower coal burn per megawatt-hour. Stable demand at 38-40 million tonnes per year underpins volumes for Bogatyr Coal even as renewables scale. Co-firing upgrades act as a hedge against potential EU carbon border measures post-2028.
Belt and Road Rail Upgrades Slash Export Costs
Completion of the Khorgos-Almaty double-track line in 2024 reduced average dwell time for concentrates from 72 hours to 18 hours and cut freight charges by 22%[1]China Railway Corporation, “Khorgos-Almaty Line Completion,” crchina.com . As a result, exports of copper, zinc, and lead concentrates to China jumped to 14.2 million tonnes in 2025 from 11.8 million tonnes in 2023. Equipment inflows from China now reach mine sites 30% faster, freeing working capital and accelerating project schedules. The Trans-Caspian route handled 1.9 million tonnes to Turkey and the Balkans in 2025, diversifying customer exposure.
Restraints Impact Analysis
| Restraint | (~) % Impact on CAGR Forecast | Geographic Relevance | Impact Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|
| Volatile Global Commodity Prices | -1.4% | Global, with acute exposure in copper and zinc export revenues | Short term (≤ 2 years) |
| Ageing Mine Infrastructure | -0.9% | National, concentrated in Karaganda, Pavlodar, and Kostanay legacy sites | Medium term (2-4 years) |
| Chronic Skilled-Labour Out-Migration | -1.1% | National, with spillover effects on project execution timelines | Long term (≥ 4 years) |
| Source: Mordor Intelligence | |||
Volatile Global Commodity Prices
Copper prices swung from USD 9,850 per tonne in Jan 2024 to USD 6,400 in Oct 2024 before rebounding to USD 8,900 by mid-2025, squeezing mid-tier margins[2]London Metal Exchange, “Historical Copper Prices,” lme.com . Only 18% of 2025 output was hedged, versus 35-40% for peers in Chile and Australia. Limited access to derivatives leaves smaller firms exposed to spot risk or burdensome tolling terms with Chinese smelters.
Ageing Mine Infrastructure
Equipment at Soviet-era sites averages 27 years old, causing downtime above 22% of scheduled hours in 2025. Replacement needs total USD 4.2 billion across the top 15 legacy mines, yet debt covenants and dividend commitments restrict capex. Productivity per worker-hour is 1.8 tonnes versus 3.2 tonnes in Australia, widening the competitiveness gap.
Segment Analysis
By Mineral Type: Non-Ferrous Momentum Overtakes Copper’s Lead
The copper segment captured 38.80% of revenue in 2025, but setting the stage for non-ferrous metal segment growth at a 10.56% CAGR through 2031. Kazzinc’s Ust-Kamenogorsk refinery is boosting zinc capacity to 360,000 tonnes by 2026, while Tau-Ken Samruk’s Zhairem discovery underpins a 1.2 million-tonne underground mine by 2029. Rare-earth commitments of USD 180 million in 2025 further diversify earnings as battery materials demand rises.
A second wave of investment targets manganese-lead-zinc ore in the Altai and Balkhash belts, underlining the pivot from bulk ferrous to specialty metals. Ferrous ores still feed 4.2 million tonnes of crude steel at ArcelorMittal Temirtau, but renewable power and rising scrap use constrain iron-ore upside. Coal output from Ekibastuz stabilizes electricity supply yet faces efficiency-driven demand plateaus.
By Mining Method: In-Situ Leach Accelerates in Uranium Belt
Surface (open-pit) accounts for 57.80% of 2025 share, reflecting coal’s scale and large copper porphyries. However, in-situ leach is outpacing, growing at 10.22% annually. The technology slashes upfront spending to USD 180-220 million for a 2,000-tonne unit and eliminates tailings dams, lowering permitting risk.
Underground methods service high-grade polymetallic and gold lodes in Ridder and Zyryanovsk, though costs run to USD 42 per tonne versus USD 28 for open-pit. Autonomous haulage at Vostochny lifted ore movement 11% and cut diesel use 9% in 2025, illustrating how digital adoption is narrowing cost differentials.
By End-User Industry: Nuclear Fuel and Chemicals Lead Growth
Steel and alloy production absorbed 30.10% of output in 2025, yet “Other End-user Industries” are advancing fastest at 11.28% CAGR through 2031. Uranium feedstock for Chinese, Russian, and French fuel fabricators anchors baseline demand, while zinc sulfate production at Ridder captures a 15-20% premium over commodity zinc. Construction materials supplied by limestone and gypsum quarries benefit from a 14% rise in 2025 government infrastructure spending.
Agricultural micronutrient markets, buoyed by demand for zinc fertilizers, and pharmaceutical uses for zinc sulfate diversify cash flows. Combined with stable coal burn at retrofitted power plants, these niches offset the cyclical swings of base-metal exports.
Geography Analysis
Pavlodar’s Ekibastuz basin produced 118 million tonnes of coal, while Kyzylorda and Turkestan delivered 87% of uranium via in-situ leach wells. East Kazakhstan’s copper and polymetallic hubs earned USD 4.8 billion in 2025 exports yet face 2-3% annual growth caps from labor shortages.
Western diversification is gaining momentum. Mangystau and Atyrau secured USD 340 million for lithium-brine exploration in 2024-2025 as assays suggest 18,000-22,000 tonnes of lithium carbonate equivalent by 2030. Turkestan’s proximity to Uzbekistan spurred a USD 280 million rare-earth separation facility slated for 2028. Kostanay’s Lisakovsk iron ore required USD 420 million in beneficiation in 2025 to offset grade decline from 32% to 28%.
Transport gaps drive cost disparities. The Khorgos-Almaty rail saves 18-22% versus trucking, but Aktau port congestion in the west adds 8-12 days and USD 35-50 per tonne to freight. A USD 1.6 billion Trans-Caspian upgrade aims to equalize access by 2029, potentially unlocking 2-3 million tonnes of new export capacity.
Competitive Landscape
The top five operators—Bogatyr Komir, Eurasian Resources Group, Kazatomprom, KAZ Minerals, and Kazakhmys—controlled 54% of 2025 output, giving the Kazakhstan mining market a moderate concentration profile. Kazatomprom’s 2024 purchase of 49% of Ulba Metallurgical Plant secures conversion margins as global nuclear demand rises. Eurasian Resources Group’s 14 autonomous trucks cut costs 7-9% in 2025, a gap mid-tiers struggle to match.
White-space growth centers on lithium, rare earths, and specialty metals where foreign partners invested USD 520 million during 2024-2025. Tau-Ken Samruk advanced 11 greenfields using its data edge and faster permits, while Ken Resources raised USD 53 million in early 2026 for Satpayev copper-gold. Regulatory shifts mandate 51% local content and joint ventures for lithium and rare earths, accelerating technology transfer but raising entry barriers for passive investors.
Digital adoption is uneven. Drone surveying, predictive maintenance, and automated drilling are standard at tier-one sites, yet Ridder’s mid-tier miners still rely on Soviet-era gear. With labor outflows persisting, automation investment is becoming a competitive necessity rather than a choice.
Kazakhstan Mining Industry Leaders
NAC Kazatomprom JSC
Kazakhmys Corporation LLC
Eurasian Resources Group
KAZ Minerals
Bogatyr Coal
- *Disclaimer: Major Players sorted in no particular order
Recent Industry Developments
- December 2025: Eurasian Resources Group increased its mining investments in Kazakhstan to nearly USD 1 billion. This represents an approximate 40% increase compared to the investment levels two to three years ago.
- November 2025: East Star Resources Plc and Endeavour Exploration formed a joint venture (JV) agreement to advance gold mining operations in Kazakhstan. The partnership focused on two proven yet underexplored mineral belts in the region.
Kazakhstan Mining Market Report Scope
Mining involves extracting valuable minerals and geological materials such as metals, coal, sand, and gravel from the Earth. This process employs techniques like surface mining (open-pit) and underground mining, which include land clearing, drilling, blasting, and processing to obtain raw materials used in construction, energy, and manufacturing.
The Kazakhstan mining market is segmented by mineral type, mining method, and end-user industry. By mineral type, the market is segmented into coal, ferrous metal, and non-ferrous metal. By mining method, the market is segmented into surface (open-pit), underground, and in-situ leach. By end-user industry, the market is segmented into power generation, steel and alloy production, non-ferrous smelting, construction materials, and other end-user industries (e.g., nuclear fuel cycle, chemical processing). For each segment, the market sizing and forecasts have been done on the basis of value (USD).
| Coal |
| Ferrous Metal |
| Non Ferrous Metal |
| Surface (Open-pit) |
| Underground |
| In-situ Leach |
| Steel and Alloy Production |
| Power Generation |
| Non-Ferrous Smelting |
| Construction Materials |
| Other End-user Industries (Nuclear Fuel Cycle, Chemical Processing, etc.) |
| By Mineral Type | Coal |
| Ferrous Metal | |
| Non Ferrous Metal | |
| By Mining Method | Surface (Open-pit) |
| Underground | |
| In-situ Leach | |
| By End-user Industry | Steel and Alloy Production |
| Power Generation | |
| Non-Ferrous Smelting | |
| Construction Materials | |
| Other End-user Industries (Nuclear Fuel Cycle, Chemical Processing, etc.) |
Key Questions Answered in the Report
How large is the Kazakhstan mining market in 2026?
The Kazakhstan mining market size is USD 32.33 billion in 2026 and projected to reach USD 51.81 billion in 2031, with a CAGR of 9.89%.
Which segment holds the largest share of mining revenue?
Copper is accounting for 38.80% of Kazakhstan mining market share in 2025.
What method is growing fastest for uranium extraction?
In-situ leach technology is expanding at a 10.22% CAGR through 2031, driven by Kazatomprom’s new wellfields.
Which end-user sector is set to grow most rapidly?
The “Other End-user Industries” segment is projected to grow at 11.28% CAGR to 2031.
