Crude Steel Market Size & Share Analysis - Growth Trends And Forecast (2025 - 2030)

Global Crude Steel Market Trends and Insights

Decarbonization-Linked Capex Race Among Top 20 Steelmakers

More than USD 200 billion has been earmarked for low-carbon furnace conversions, hydrogen-based direct-reduction units, and electrical-steel lines scheduled for completion before 2030^{[1]ArcelorMittal, “ArcelorMittal to Build Electrical Steel Plant in Alabama,” arcelormittal.com} . ArcelorMittal’s USD 1.2 billion electrical-steel plant in Alabama and thyssenkrupp’s tkH2Steel program targeting a 30% CO₂ cut by 2030 highlight the first-mover premium. Pilot operations scheduled for early 2026 are expected to validate cost parity with conventional routes once renewable electricity prices converge with fossil alternatives. Early adopters gain price-negotiation leverage with automotive and appliance buyers eager to shrink Scope 3 emissions, while late movers risk stranded blast-furnace assets under tightening carbon-border taxes.

Construction Super-Cycle in India and ASEAN Through 2030

India’s target of boosting installed crude-steel capacity to 500 million tons by 2047 anchors a regional boom in long and structural steel, underpinned by domestic iron-ore output that rose to 318 million tons in 2025. Parallel ASEAN megaprojects—such as Indonesia’s Nusantara capital and Thailand’s Eastern Economic Corridor—collectively require more than 50 million tons in the current decade. Regional investors led by SteelAsia are deploying PHP 65 billion across multiple EAF lines to shorten supply chains and capture value-added fabrication. Sustained growth rests on continued fiscal spending and foreign-direct-investment inflows, although interest-rate cycles and raw-material price swings pose downside risk.

Automotive Lightweighting Push Reviving Value-Added Flat Steel

Electric-vehicle penetration is reshaping sheet demand toward electrical-steel grades used in traction motors while reinforcing the need for advanced high-strength steels in crash structures. ArcelorMittal’s 150,000-ton annual capacity in Alabama directly targets U.S. automakers aiming to localize supply of non-grain-oriented electrical steel. Premiums of 20-30% over commodity hot-rolled coil enhance mill margins but require tight control of silicon and aluminum additions. Ultra-high-strength steels also allow designers to replace thicker conventional gauges, paradoxically increasing steel intensity per vehicle by merging weight savings with safety regulations.

Green-Hydrogen Project Pipelines Lowering Long-Run Power Cost

IEA modeling shows delivered green-hydrogen prices falling to USD 1.3–3.5/kg by 2030, at which point hydrogen-based sponge iron competes with coking-coal routes in jurisdictions exposing steel to carbon costs above USD 90/tCO₂. Steelmakers securing long-term power-purchase agreements for on-site electrolysis gain protection from future grid volatility and lock in a decarbonization narrative valued by capital markets. Renewable-rich locations such as Australia’s Pilbara or Spain’s Andalusia therefore attract integrated hydrogen-steel clusters, giving nearby mills a structural cost edge.

Slower-Than-Expected Chinese Real-Estate Recovery

Monthly new-home sales in China fell 37.7% year-on-year in September 2024, trimming residential-steel demand that had already halved from its 2019 peak of 296 million tons. The resulting export push by Chinese mills depresses regional prices and sparks trade friction, particularly in Southeast Asia. Long-term demand destruction is tied to demographic plateauing and higher vacancy rates, pointing to a structural rather than cyclical adjustment.

Trade-Remedy Proliferation Hampering Cross-Border Flows

The United States reinstated a 25% Section 232 tariff on steel in March 2025, and the EU expanded safeguard quotas to curb inflows by 15% starting April 2025. China, for its part, tightened export-tax rebate rules in April 2025, raising compliance costs for foreign buyers. These actions fragment a once-borderless commodity market, forcing downstream users to regionalize sourcing and eroding economies of scale in specialized long and flat products.

Segment Analysis

By Composition: Killed Steel Dominates Continuous Casting Applications

Killed steel captured 54.61% of the crude steel market share in 2024, reflecting its indispensability to continuous casting lines that account for nearly all modern slab production. Aluminum and silicon deoxidizers suppress gas evolution, which minimizes surface voids and improves yield. Semi-killed grades are expected to outpace overall growth at a 4.96% CAGR through 2030 as automakers seek controlled chemical segregation for lightweight chassis components. Rimmed and capped steels continue to serve niche sheet and strip use cases but remain in structural decline as integrated mills prioritize yield and cleanliness. 

EAF operators increasingly specify killed grades to maximize alloy recovery and reduce rework, reinforcing the segment’s predominance. Meanwhile, semi-killed steel’s rising profile aligns with automakers’ transition to advanced high-strength steels requiring precise micro-alloying. Regulatory factors exert minimal direct influence on composition choice, though energy-intensity considerations encourage mills to streamline deoxidation practices and recover aluminum additions for economic gain.

By Manufacturing Process: EAF Growth Challenges BOF Dominance

BOF routes held a commanding 74.59% of 2024 output but face relentless share erosion as EAF installations log a 5.14% CAGR to 2030. JFE Steel’s USD 2.26 billion large-EAF project and Hyundai Steel’s USD 5.8 billion Louisiana mill illustrate the capital reallocation toward scrap-based, lower-carbon production. Carbon-adjusted cost models show EAF emitting roughly 75% less CO₂ per ton versus BOF, a gap that widens under carbon-border levies. 

EAF’s modularity also lets producers add capacity in 500,000-ton increments, aligning supply with regional demand without multibillion-dollar blast-furnace overbuilds. BOF retains a foothold in ultra-low-residual grades for cans, transformers, and pipeline steel, yet hydrogen-based direct-reduction furnaces coupled with EAF melting threaten even that last redoubt. Over the forecast horizon, hybrid operations blending EAF melt shops with BOS converters may emerge as a transitional architecture before full blast-furnace retirements.

By End-User Industry: Construction Drives Volume Growth

Building and construction applications absorbed 53.11% of global tonnage in 2024 and are forecast to grow at 5.06% annually through 2030, underpinning the crude steel market size expansion. India’s highway, metro, and green-energy corridors account for a large proportion of the incremental demand, while ASEAN governments bankroll urban-transit and logistics-hub agendas. Transportation ranks second, fueled by vehicle electrification and rail-network upgrades that prefer high-tensile flat and long products. 

Machinery and equipment segments benefit from factory automation and renewable-energy component orders, whereas consumer goods remain steady in white-goods and electronics casings. Energy applications accelerate via wind-tower fabrication and grid-expansion steels, especially in offshore installations requiring heavy plate. As economies mature, the demand mix is projected to lean toward transportation and high-value energy infrastructure, though base construction volumes will still anchor order books for most regional producers.

Note: Segment shares of all individual segments available upon report purchase

Geography Analysis

Asia-Pacific accounted for 74.09% of 2024 shipments and is projected to grow at 4.93% CAGR to 2030, supported by India’s planned scale-up to 500 million tons of annual capacity and ASEAN construction pipelines. China’s housing-driven soft patch generates a surplus that increasingly targets export markets, prompting anti-dumping actions across South Asia and Latin America. Japan and South Korea shift focus to electrical-steel specialisms and hydrogen-ready furnaces backed by strong governmental subsidies. 

North America’s demand outlook brightens under the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law and the Inflation Reduction Act, though the region’s supply side is consolidating around headline deals such as Nippon Steel’s USD 14.9 billion take-over of U.S. Steel^{[2]Nippon Steel Corporation, “Integration Plan for U.S. Steel,” nipponsteel.com} . Abundant scrap and renewable electricity create fertile ground for EAF capacity, with Canada leveraging hydro-powered grids and Mexico capturing reshoring-induced auto-steel orders. 

Europe combats energy-price headwinds via efficiency upgrades, EU steel fund grants, and carbon-border tariffs aimed at leveling imports. South America and Middle East-Africa present mid-single-digit growth rooted in infrastructure and resource-processing plants, though financing constraints limit project pipelines. Regionalization of supply chains, triggered by freight-cost inflation and Scope 3 accounting, is a unifying theme influencing mill location and product-mix decisions worldwide.