Market Overview
| Study Period | 2020 - 2030 |
|---|---|
| Market Size (2025) | USD 0.91 Trillion |
| Market Size (2030) | USD 1.24 Trillion |
| Growth Rate (2025 - 2030) | 6.38% CAGR |
| Fastest Growing Market | Middle East and Africa |
| Largest Market | Asia Pacific |
| Market Concentration | Low |
Major Players
*Disclaimer: Major Players sorted in no particular order Image © Mordor Intelligence. Reuse requires attribution under CC BY 4.0. |
|
Fermented Drinks Market Analysis by Mordor Intelligence
The fermented drinks market size stands at USD 910 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach USD 1,239 billion by 2030, advancing at a 6.38% CAGR. Sustained momentum reflects a confluence of long-term shifts—ranging from growing interest in functional gut-health solutions to widespread sustainability commitments—that are broadening the category well beyond traditional alcohol consumption[1]Yingmanee Tragoolpua, “Functional metabolites and inhibitory efficacy of kombucha,” Nature, nature.com. Consumers are gravitating toward low- or no-alcohol alternatives, probiotics, and circular-economy product stories, allowing manufacturers to address multiple lifestyle priorities in one purchase. Precision-controlled fermentation enables superior flavor consistency and sugar reduction, letting brands comply with tightening front-of-pack rules without compromising taste. Meanwhile, relaxed regulations for beverages at or below 0.5% ABV are lowering barriers for innovators to introduce sophisticated, lightly fermented options that appeal to sober-curious audiences. On the supply side, investments in high-throughput microbial screening, CO₂ recovery systems, and waste-to-substrate conversion are enhancing cost efficiency, product quality, and environmental performance, reinforcing the sector’s resilience.
Key Report Takeaways
By beverage type, beer led with 63.28% share of the fermented drinks market in 2024, while kombucha is projected to expand at a 13.37% CAGR through 2030.
By distribution channel, off-trade retail held 71.59% share in 2024, while online sub-channels inside off-trade are forecast to grow at a 6.91% CAGR to 2030.
By packaging type, bottles accounted for 51.61% of the fermented drinks market size in 2024; cans are advancing at a 7.81% CAGR through 2030.
By geography, Asia-Pacific captured 32.17% of fermented drinks market share in 2024, while the Middle East and Africa region is poised for the fastest growth at a 7.20% CAGR to 2030.
Global Fermented Drinks Market Trends and Insights
Drivers Impact Analysis
| Driver | (≈) % Impact on CAGR Forecast | Geographic Relevance | Impact Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rising demand for probiotic-rich functional beverages | +1.8% | Global, strongest in North America & Europe | Medium term (2-4 years) |
| “Sober-curious” movement accelerating non-alcoholic options | +1.2% | North America & Europe core; APAC urban centers | Short term (≤ 2 years) |
| Craft fermentation tech enabling low-sugar, shelf-stable drinks | +1.0% | Global, led by developed markets | Long term (≥ 4 years) |
| Circular-economy upcycling of food waste into substrates | +0.8% | Europe & North America leading; APAC rising | Long term (≥ 4 years) |
| Regulatory relaxation for ≤0.5% ABV ready-to-drink products | +0.6% | North America & Europe; selective APAC | Medium term (2-4 years) |
| Precision-fermentation starter cultures for novel flavors | +0.4% | Global, innovation hubs | Long term (≥ 4 years) |
| Source: Mordor Intelligence | |||
Rising Demand for Probiotic-Rich Functional Beverages
Consumer focus on digestive wellness is spurring record demand for live-culture drinks. Research demonstrates that probiotic beverages improve absorption of bioactive compounds and provide measurable immune benefits, with kombucha exhibiting antimicrobial and anti-inflammatory effects. The United States Food and Drug Administration is clarifying structure-function claim wording, allowing brands to communicate probiotic counts and strain-specific advantages more confidently. Plant-based offerings such as water kefir and fermented fruit juices cater to lactose-intolerant and vegan consumers, broadening category reach while aligning with personalized-nutrition trends. As global functional beverage sales near USD 49 billion, fermented formulations remain at the forefront.
“Sober-Curious” Movement Accelerating Non-Alcoholic Options
Health-minded younger adults are trimming alcohol intake, accelerating demand for sophisticated low- and no-alcohol ferments. United Kingdom retail value for these offerings is set to rise 56% between 2024 and 2029, indicating enduring momentum. Breweries are employing non-conventional yeasts to build flavor complexity without boosting ethanol and are recycling spent substrates to meet circularity targets. Premium pricing shields margins, proving that reduced alcohol content need not erode profitability.
Craft Fermentation Tech Enabling Low-Sugar, Shelf-Stable Drinks
High-throughput DNA sequencing and precision starter cultures let manufacturers tightly manage sugar metabolism, enabling compliance with looming 4 g/100 ml sugar-tax thresholds in markets such as the United Kingdom[2]UK Government, “Strengthening the Soft Drinks Industry Levy Consultation,” gov.uk. Oregon State University identified distinct SCOBY types that influence flavor trajectories and fermentation kinetics, giving producers a toolkit for targeted product development. As a result, artisanal profiles are now achievable at industrial volumes without sacrificing probiotic viability.
Circular-Economy Upcycling of Food Waste into Substrates
Brewer’s spent grain constitutes 85% of industry waste streams, yet conversion to biochar cuts associated emissions to 1.18 kg CO₂e per kg versus 3 kg CO₂e for landfilling. New valorization routes extract protein and fiber for plant-based drinks, turning cost centers into revenue generators. Start-ups such as Upgrain have secured regulatory approval for human-grade ingredients sourced from brewery sidestreams, aligning with consumer expectations for eco-positive products.
Restraints Impact Analysis
| Restraint | (≈) % Impact on CAGR Forecast | Geographic Relevance | Impact Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|
| Volatile supply of quality SCOBY & kefir grains | −1.4% | Global, acute in emerging markets | Short term (≤ 2 years) |
| Sugar taxes & front-of-pack labeling constraints | −0.8% | Europe & select APAC; expanding globally | Medium term (2-4 years) |
| Cold-chain dependence in emerging markets | −0.6% | Sub-Saharan Africa, Southeast Asia, Latin America | Long term (≥ 4 years) |
| Microbial-contamination recall risks | −0.4% | Global, higher in artisanal producers | Medium term (2-4 years) |
| Source: Mordor Intelligence | |||
Volatile Supply of Quality SCOBY & Kefir Grains
Commercial production relies on starter cultures whose microbial complexity resists standardization, making supply tight and prices volatile. Water-kefir grain viability fluctuates with substrate shifts, disrupting batch consistency and shelf-life performance. Small enterprises in emerging markets often depend on imported cultures, adding cost and supply-chain risk. Biotechnological solutions such as banked microbial libraries and controlled propagation facilities require capital outlays that many artisanal brewers cannot yet afford.
Sugar Taxes & Front-of-Pack Labeling Constraints
Producers of fermented beverages are facing rising compliance costs and market access challenges due to stricter regulations on sugar content and labeling. In 2024, the Netherlands increased its levy on non-alcoholic drinks to EUR 0.26 per liter, disadvantaging dairy alternatives while exempting traditional dairy products[3]U.S. Department of Agriculture. "Netherlands: The Netherlands Raises Levy on Non-Alcoholic Beverages." January 18, 2024. https://www.fas.usda.gov/data/netherlands-netherlands-raises-levy-non-alcoholic-beverages.. The UK is considering lowering the minimum sugar threshold in its Soft Drinks Industry Levy from 5g to 4g per 100ml and removing exemptions for milk-based drinks, which could impact naturally fermented products with residual sugars. In Australia, a proposed 20% tax on sugar-sweetened beverages is expected to reduce demand by 20% and generate AUD 1.4 billion in revenue, highlighting the market impact of fiscal policies. Front-of-pack labeling requirements are also adding compliance costs, with warning labels proving effective in reducing consumer interest in high-sugar beverages. These regulatory changes are pushing producers to reformulate products or risk reduced market access, particularly affecting traditional fermented beverages with naturally occurring sugars.
Segment Analysis
By Beverage Type: Beer Dominance Meets Kombucha Innovation
Beer commanded 63.28% of the fermented drinks market size in 2024, underscoring its entrenched consumption patterns and expansive distribution footprint. Brewers are refurbishing plants—Krombacher’s EUR 100 million modernization is one example—to enable rapid SKU switching between classic lagers and alcohol-free extensions. Circular brewing initiatives recover CO₂ and repurpose spent grain into high-value ingredients, supporting premium positioning while trimming carbon impacts. In parallel, large groups such as Asahi are leveraging proprietary postbiotics to differentiate functional extensions within the core portfolio.
Kombucha, though currently a niche, is advancing at a 13.37% CAGR, the fastest among beverage types, and is broadening beyond tea bases into apple and black carrot juices with superior flavonoid and phenolic profiles. Investments in microbial mapping deliver batch-to-batch flavor reliability, supporting mainstream grocer listings. Shelf-stable variants reduce reliance on refrigerated distribution, further amplifying reach.
Note: Segment shares of all individual segments available upon report purchase
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By Distribution Channel: Off-Trade Retail Supremacy
Off-trade environments captured 71.59% fermented drinks market share in 2024 as supermarkets, hypermarkets, and convenience stores leveraged volume pricing and large product assortments. Within the channel, Online retailers made a way by empowering consumers to compare functional claims and flavor profiles before purchase. Suppliers exploit direct-to-consumer data loops to tweak formulations and target promotions. Retailers meanwhile are expanding chilled shelf space and rolling out in-store kombucha taps to elevate experiential appeal.
On-trade outlets are repositioning fermented selections as premium craft experiences, pairing food menus with low-alcohol flights and fermentation workshops. This strategy salvages margin after pandemic-era alcohol declines and attracts sober-curious patrons seeking social spaces that align with wellness goals.
By Packaging Type: Bottles Lead Sustainability Transition
In 2024, bottles lead the market with a 51.61% share, driven by consumer perceptions of premium quality and protective features for fermented beverages. Glass bottles preserve flavor and prevent contamination, essential for probiotic drinks requiring longer shelf life. While benefiting from established recycling systems and consumer trust, sustainability concerns are prompting innovations in lighter designs and increased recycled content. Bottle-packaged products, often seen as premium, command higher prices, aiding brand differentiation in competitive markets.
Cans are the fastest-growing packaging format, with a 7.81% CAGR projected through 2030, driven by sustainability benefits and production efficiencies. Aluminum cans, being lighter than glass, offer better recyclability and lower transportation costs. The EU's directive for a 65% recycling rate by 2025 is encouraging environmentally-conscious brands to adopt cans. Volume reduction technologies in deposit return systems can cut CO2 emissions from aluminum waste by 50%, supporting sustainability goals and reducing logistics costs. Advances in can liner technologies are addressing flavor preservation issues, expanding their use for sensitive fermented beverages.
Note: Segment shares of all individual segments available upon report purchase
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Geography Analysis
Asia-Pacific leads the fermented products market due to cultural ties and robust domestic supply chains. Himalayan residents rely on fermented beverages for high-altitude nutrition, a practice supported by clinical studies highlighting cardiometabolic benefits. Urban millennials are adopting kombucha, blending ancient traditions with modern wellness trends. Governments in India, Thailand, and Vietnam are fostering rural employment and product innovation through grants to micro-processors.
In the Middle East and Africa, population growth and an underdeveloped retail network create opportunities for fermented drinks. Gulf consumers, with high disposable incomes, favor premium products, prompting brands to explore unique flavors like saffron-infused kefir. Sub-Saharan Africa faces cold-chain limitations, driving demand for shelf-stable or powdered probiotic formats. In Europe and North America, mature retail markets push brands to differentiate through functional claims such as immune support, energy, or beauty benefits, supported by transparent strain labeling. Regulatory changes like the expanded Soft Drinks Industry Levy are shaping formulations, promoting precision-controlled fermentation to reduce taxable sugar levels.
Competitive Landscape
The fermented drinks market is moderately fragmented, with none of the top five players holding more than a 10% share globally, resulting in a market concentration score of 3 out of 10. Key strategies include vertical integration into starter-culture bio-manufacturing, acquiring niche functional brands, and forming R&D alliances for precision fermentation. PepsiCo's USD 1.95 billion acquisition of Poppi highlights the premium valuations of gut-health sodas, granting PepsiCo access to innovative prebiotic formulations and expertise in direct-to-consumer marketing. Danone is expanding its Oikos Protein Shakes line, leveraging its high-protein dairy expertise to strengthen its position in fermented functional beverages. Established brewers are diversifying with postbiotic-enhanced lagers and sugar-reduced radlers to counter kombucha's growing popularity, while contract manufacturers like FedUp Foods are scaling private-label production for retailers, enabling assortment expansion without significant capital investment.
In 2024, patent filings rose 18% year-over-year, focusing on flavor-stabilizing microbial consortia, waste-substrate valorization, and CO₂ recapture technology, underscoring the race for intellectual property. In the Asia-Pacific, Grape King Bio is consolidating its domestic channels while collaborating with Western brands for cross-border launches. Meanwhile, Middle Eastern start-ups are honing in on halal certification and local botanicals, drawing in venture capital as Gulf Cooperation Council nations emphasize diversifying their food systems.
Fermented Drinks Industry Leaders
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Anheuser-Busch InBev SA/NV
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Heineken N.V.
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Danone SA
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PepsiCo Inc.
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The Coca-Cola Company
- *Disclaimer: Major Players sorted in no particular order
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Recent Industry Developments
- March 2025: In a strategic move, Lipton, a member of the Carlsberg Britvic group, debuted its inaugural kombucha line in the UK. This entry taps into the burgeoning kombucha market, presenting a revitalizing fusion of naturally fermented tea and authentic fruit essences. The newly unveiled range boasts three enticing flavors: Strawberry Mint, Raspberry, and Mango Passionfruit. Each variant promises a refreshing experience with its low-sugar, low-calorie profile and effervescent bubbles.
- February 2025: Fermenthe, hailing from Thailand, has unveiled a ready-to-drink (RTD) kombucha line. This kombucha proudly features a world-leading 22% tea concentrate, artfully combining fermented black and green teas. Distinctively, it's sugar-free, deriving its sweetness from honey, and is tailored for calorie-conscious consumers prioritizing beauty and weight management.
- November 2024: Bliss Body, a prominent player in India's functional nutrition landscape, has unveiled the nation's inaugural range of millet-fermented functional beverages. This groundbreaking lineup boasts a sugar-free formulation, presented in three distinctive flavors: Pineapple, Mango, and Orange. These beverages not only deliver naturally sweet taste profiles but also champion wellness, harnessing the power of nutrient-dense ancient ingredients.
Global Fermented Drinks Market Report Scope
Fermented beverages include beverages that have undergone bacterial and yeast oxidation, wherein sugars are broken down during fermentation and transformed into various gases and ethanol. All fermented drinks produce beneficial bacteria that enhance intestinal health when consumed raw.
The fermented beverages market is segmented based on type, distribution channel, and geography. By type, the market has been segmented into alcoholic and non-alcoholic beverages. The non-alcoholic drinks are further bifurcated into probiotic drinks such as kombucha, kefir, and others. Based on the distribution channel, the market is segmented into on-trade and off-trade. The off-trade segment comprises supermarkets/hypermarkets, specialty retail stores, convenience stores, and other sales channels. The study also analyzes the market studied in emerging and established geographical regions, covering North America, Europe, Asia-Pacific, South America, Middle East and Africa. The report offers market size and forecasts for the fermented drinks market in value (USD million) for all the above segments.
By Beverage Type
| Alcoholic Fermented Beverages | Beer |
| Cider | |
| Sake | |
| Other Alcoholic | |
| Non-alcoholic Fermented Beverages | Kombucha |
| Kefir | |
| Fermented Dairy Drinks | |
| Other Non-alcoholic |
By Distribution Channel
| On-Trade | |
| Off-Trade | Supermarkets/Hypermarkets |
| Convenience/Grocery Stores | |
| Specialty Stores | |
| Online Retail Stores |
By Packaging Type
| Bottles (Glass & PET) |
| Cans |
| Tetra Packs/Cartons |
| Kegs & Barrels |
| Others |
By Geography
| North America | United States |
| Canada | |
| Mexico | |
| Rest of North America | |
| Europe | Germany |
| United Kingdom | |
| France | |
| Italy | |
| Spain | |
| Russia | |
| Netherlands | |
| Poland | |
| Belgium | |
| Sweden | |
| Rest of Europe | |
| Asia-Pacific | China |
| Japan | |
| India | |
| Australia | |
| South Korea | |
| Thailand | |
| Singapore | |
| Rest of Asia-Pacific | |
| South America | Brazil |
| Argentina | |
| Colombia | |
| Chile | |
| Peru | |
| Rest of South America | |
| Middle East and Africa | South Africa |
| Saudi Arabia | |
| United Arab Emirates | |
| Nigeria | |
| Egypt | |
| Morocco | |
| Turkey | |
| Rest of Middle East and Africa |
| By Beverage Type | Alcoholic Fermented Beverages | Beer |
| Cider | ||
| Sake | ||
| Other Alcoholic | ||
| Non-alcoholic Fermented Beverages | Kombucha | |
| Kefir | ||
| Fermented Dairy Drinks | ||
| Other Non-alcoholic | ||
| By Distribution Channel | On-Trade | |
| Off-Trade | Supermarkets/Hypermarkets | |
| Convenience/Grocery Stores | ||
| Specialty Stores | ||
| Online Retail Stores | ||
| By Packaging Type | Bottles (Glass & PET) | |
| Cans | ||
| Tetra Packs/Cartons | ||
| Kegs & Barrels | ||
| Others | ||
| By Geography | North America | United States |
| Canada | ||
| Mexico | ||
| Rest of North America | ||
| Europe | Germany | |
| United Kingdom | ||
| France | ||
| Italy | ||
| Spain | ||
| Russia | ||
| Netherlands | ||
| Poland | ||
| Belgium | ||
| Sweden | ||
| Rest of Europe | ||
| Asia-Pacific | China | |
| Japan | ||
| India | ||
| Australia | ||
| South Korea | ||
| Thailand | ||
| Singapore | ||
| Rest of Asia-Pacific | ||
| South America | Brazil | |
| Argentina | ||
| Colombia | ||
| Chile | ||
| Peru | ||
| Rest of South America | ||
| Middle East and Africa | South Africa | |
| Saudi Arabia | ||
| United Arab Emirates | ||
| Nigeria | ||
| Egypt | ||
| Morocco | ||
| Turkey | ||
| Rest of Middle East and Africa | ||
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Key Questions Answered in the Report
What is the current value of the fermented drinks market?
The fermented drinks market size is USD 910 billion in 2025.
How fast is kombucha expected to grow?
Kombucha is forecast to post a 13.37% CAGR between 2025 and 2030, the fastest among beverage types.
Which region leads in fermented drinks sales?
Asia-Pacific holds the largest share at 32.17%, thanks to strong fermentation heritage and rising health consciousness.
Why are cans gaining popularity for fermented beverages?
Aluminum cans support higher recyclability, lighter shipping, and new liner technologies that protect delicate probiotic flavors, fueling a 7.81% CAGR outlook.
What are the major risks facing producers?
Key challenges include volatile starter-culture supply, sugar-tax compliance costs, cold-chain gaps in emerging markets, and contamination-related recalls.
How fragmented is the competitive landscape?
The market is moderately fragmented, with no single company exceeding 10% global share, resulting in a concentration score of 3 / 10.
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