Market Overview
| Study Period | 2019 - 2030 |
|---|---|
| Base Year For Estimation | 2024 |
| Forecast Data Period | 2025 - 2030 |
| Market Size (2025) | USD 64.18 Billion |
| Market Size (2030) | USD 68.52 Billion |
| Growth Rate (2025 - 2030) | 6.78% CAGR |
| Market Concentration | Medium |
Major Players
*Disclaimer: Major Players sorted in no particular order Image © Mordor Intelligence. Reuse requires attribution under CC BY 4.0. |
|
Mexico Commercial Real Estate Market Analysis by Mordor Intelligence
The Mexico commercial real estate market stood at USD 64.18 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach USD 68.52 billion by 2030, reflecting a steady 6.78% CAGR by 2030. Sustained nearshoring has elevated industrial and logistics assets, with border-city rents rising by double digits for three consecutive years as manufacturers replace Asian suppliers with Mexican capacity. Parallel growth in e-commerce is reshaping warehouse footprints toward smaller, urban-edge facilities that enable same-day delivery while embedding automation and AI-driven inventory systems. Hyperscale cloud operators are catalyzing a new wave of data-center construction, particularly in Querétaro, where robust fiber backbones and renewable-energy access support long-term power-hungry leases. Meanwhile, investors are navigating higher lending costs stemming from Banxico’s tight policy stance and construction-input inflation, prompting greater reliance on private debt, forward-purchase agreements and green-bond financing to keep projects moving Banco de México. Peso stability and digital fractional-ownership platforms are also bringing a growing pool of individual investors into play, diversifying the capital stack and reinforcing liquidity across core and secondary markets
Key Report Takeaways
- By property type, logistics facilities led with 32.1% of the Mexico commercial real estate market share in 2024. The Mexico commercial real estate market for this logistics segment is forecast to grow at an 8.02% CAGR between 2025-2030.
- By business model, sales transactions captured 66.0% of the Mexico commercial real estate market size in 2024. The Mexico commercial real estate market for the rental model is projected to expand at 7.46% CAGR between 2025-2030.
- By end-user, corporate and SME occupiers held a 71.0% share of the Mexico commercial real estate market size in 2024. The Mexico commercial real estate market for the individual/household segment is advancing at a 7.67% CAGR between 2025-2030.
- By geography, Mexico City maintained 22.0% of the Mexico commercial real estate market share in 2024. The Mexico commercial real estate market for Querétaro is poised for the fastest 7.21% CAGR between 2025-2030.
Mexico Commercial Real Estate Market Trends and Insights
Drivers Impact Analysis
| Driver | ( ~ )% Impact on CAGR Forecast | Geographic Relevance | Impact Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nearshoring-induced industrial demand along the US–Mexico border | +1.8% | Northern border states, Bajío region | Medium term (2–4 years) |
| E-commerce expansion boosting last-mile logistics | +1.2% | Mexico City, Guadalajara, Monterrey | Short term (≤ 2 years) |
| Data-center investments enabled by fiber upgrades | +0.9% | Querétaro, Mexico City | Long term (≥ 4 years) |
| Peso stability attracting foreign office investment | +0.7% | Mexico City, Monterrey | Medium term (2–4 years) |
| PPP transportation corridors raising retail footfall | +0.5% | Secondary cities, Bajío | Long term (≥ 4 years) |
| Rapid urbanization in the Bajío region | +0.6% | Querétaro, León, Aguascalientes | Long term (≥ 4 years) |
| Source: Mordor Intelligence | |||
Nearshoring-induced industrial demand along the US–Mexico border
Manufacturing migration from Asia to Mexico has produced structural demand for industrial stock that decouples from normal economic cycles. Mexico’s share of United States imports reached 15% in 2023, establishing a USD 1.3 trillion trade corridor under USMCA. Northern markets already hold 40% of national warehouse occupancy, with Monterrey leasing 50,000 m² in November 2024 and Saltillo taking 30,000 m². According to Macquarie, CHIPS and Science Act incentives are prompting semiconductor suppliers to co-locate in Mexico.Vacancy below 1% in core border nodes underscores constrained supply that should preserve pricing power through 2030. Consequently, logistics players continue to pre-lease new shells up to 18 months before delivery.
E-commerce expansion boosting last-mile logistics space
Mexican online retail penetration keeps climbing, pressing couriers to re-engineer distribution footprints for speed and urban coverage[1]Mexico Business News, “Logistics Real Estate Sees Record Pipeline,” mexicobusiness.news. Kerry Logistics’ 20,000 m² hub in Tepotzotlán, built for same-day deliveries, will scale to 50,000 m² and is mirrored by builds in Guadalajara and Monterrey. Smaller cross-dock warehouses close to population centers are replacing single mega-sheds on the city fringe, reshaping land-use priorities. Automated sortation and AI-driven inventory routing, though costlier to install, are improving cycle times and lowering return ratios. Developers are therefore layering micro-fulfillment nodes into mixed-use schemes that also house retail and office functions, maximizing site yields.
Expansion of data-center investments fueled by fiber upgrades
Cloud adoption and AI workloads are casting Mexico as a continental data center bridge. ODATA has energized 200 MW of its Querétaro campus, with a USD 3.3 billion plan for 400 MW total capacity. Microsoft’s multiregional cloud program is adding construction and permanent jobs while mandating 100% renewable energy by 2025. Upgraded fiber backbones have eased latency concerns for latency-sensitive applications, elevating Querétaro to a top-five Latin American data-center node. High electrical loads and redundancy demands are driving premiums well above conventional industrial rent, locking tenants into 10- to 15-year leases. Spillover demand for adjacent offices and logistics bays is emerging, as suppliers need local staging and maintenance facilities.
Peso stability is attracting foreign institutional investors to offices
A relatively steady peso has curbed hedging costs that previously eroded foreign returns, rekindling appetite for prime offices. Mexico City vacancies touched 20% in 2024, yet well-located Class A towers with ESG credentials are still achieving premium rents. Aberdeen Investments reports renewed allocations by Asian pension funds, citing currency hedging savings approaching 120 bps versus 2019 levels. Tenants from technology and financial services are leading the absorption of flexible, hybrid-ready space, while older stock struggles. Green certifications such as LEED and EDGE have become gatekeepers for international capital, giving compliant assets a competitive edge.
Restraints Impact Analysis
| Restraint | ( ~ )% Impact on CAGR Forecast | Geographic Relevance | Impact Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|
| Banxico’s tight monetary stance raising borrowing costs | -1.4% | National, high impact in Mexico City & Guadalajara | Short term (≤ 2 years) |
| Prolonged zoning approval timelines in Mexico City | -0.8% | Mexico City Metropolitan Area | Medium term (2–4 years) |
| Construction-input inflation compressing margins | -1.1% | National, major metros | Short term (≤ 2 years) |
| Security concerns deterring international tenants | -0.6% | Northern border states | Medium term (2–4 years) |
| Source: Mordor Intelligence | |||
Banxico’s tight monetary stance raising borrowing costs
The central bank held policy rates at restrictive levels through 2024 as headline inflation averaged 4.55. Higher reference rates lifted real-estate lending spreads, squeezing developer balance sheets and delaying groundbreakings. Commercial banks shifted toward shorter-tenor manufacturing credit, shrinking long-term construction lines, while traditional deposits grew just 4% year-on-year. With Banxico not expected to achieve its 3% inflation target until late 2026, elevated financing costs will linger, pushing more sponsors toward private debt and structured equity.
Construction-input inflation compressing development margins
Material costs climbed 12% in 2024, including a 32.4% jump in aluminum and a 13.5% rise in specialized machinery. Profit margins on residential and commercial builds slid to roughly 7% versus historical highs above 15%[2]Cámara Mexicana de la Industria de la Construcción, “Construction Cost Index 2024,” cmic.org. Developers face a strategic choice: absorb cost shock, eroding profitability, or pass increases to buyers and risk dampening presales. Some are adopting modular construction and long-lead hedging contracts to mitigate volatility.
Segment Analysis
By Property Type: Logistics drives industrial transformation
Logistics assets represented 32.1% of the Mexico commercial real estate market size in 2024 and are forecast to expand at an 8.02% CAGR through 2030, solidifying their role as the prime growth engine. Industrial rents in Tijuana and Saltillo climbed 18.2% and 26.5%, respectively, during 2024, reflecting outsized nearshoring demand. Office space is contending with 20% vacancy in Mexico City, though technology-centric corridors are bucking the trend as firms prioritize ESG-compliant, flexible footprints.
Logistics’ dominance is accelerating spillover investment into supporting cold-chain and reverse-logistics facilities. Retail schemes now annex micro-fulfillment nodes to meet same-day delivery expectations, blending showroom and warehouse functions under one roof. Meanwhile, hospitality assets are reviving in leisure destinations as air traffic normalizes and peso strength boosts domestic tourism spending. Industrial park developers have 20 million m² under planning, of which 19% targets manufacturing and 19% logistics, signaling balanced supply for mid-term demand. The Mexico commercial real estate market continues to reallocate capital toward usage categories aligned with export manufacturing, digital infrastructure, and urban consumption.
Note: Segment shares of all individual segments available upon report purchase
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By Business Model: Sales dominance faces rental market evolution
Sales still command 66% of the Mexico commercial real estate market size, underscoring cultural preferences for outright ownership. Yet the rental segment, benefitting from a 7.46% CAGR outlook, is eroding this dominance as investors seek yield without navigating Mexico’s complex land-title protocols. Institutional capital favors stabilized rent rolls and can now hedge peso exposure more efficiently, improving the attractiveness of income structures.
Recent Mexico City regulations capping rent hikes to inflation and requiring digital lease registration may dampen rental yields in the capital, pushing developers to focus on secondary markets with lighter oversight. Corporates opt for leases to maintain balance-sheet agility during economic uncertainty, while digital payment platforms and AI-based credit checks are streamlining tenant onboarding. Consequently, the Mexico commercial real estate market is witnessing a gradual shift from build-to-sell toward build-to-rent, especially within logistics and multifamily subsegments.
Note: Segment shares of all individual segments available upon report purchase
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By End-User: Corporate demand drives individual investment interest
Corporate and SME occupiers held 71% share of the Mexico commercial real estate market size in 2024, anchored by export manufacturers and technology firms scaling up in anticipation of US demand. Chinese enterprises quintupled their Mexican industrial footprint between 2019 and 2023, underlining a structural East-to-North America supply shift. In parallel, the individual/household buyer base is expected to accelerate at 7.67% CAGR, buoyed by fractional-ownership apps and rising middle-class savings.
Corporate tenants increasingly request automation-ready warehouses, on-site renewable power, and data-rich building management systems. Individual investors gravitate toward high-yield strata retail pods and small offices in secondary towns where cap rates remain attractive. Government entities and pension funds, grouped in the ‘Others’ category, allocate to specialty assets such as data centers and healthcare facilities to match long-duration liabilities. As diversified capital pools deepen, the Mexico commercial real estate industry gains resilience against cyclical swings.
Geography Analysis
Mexico City retained 22% Mexico commercial real estate market share in 2024, supported by its 23% contribution to national GDP and USD 12 billion FDI inflows[3]OECD, “Metropolitan Outlook: Mexico City,” oecd.org . Prime submarkets experienced annual price gains up to 30%, although housing affordability remains strained after average residential prices rose 36% since 2019. Ongoing infrastructure projects such as Felipe Ángeles International Airport and Metro extensions aim to ease congestion and unlock peripheral growth.
Nuevo León continues to anchor northern industrial expansion. Monterrey registered 50,000 m² of warehouse demand in November 2024 alone as automotive and electronics suppliers seek near-border proximity. Jalisco, branded the nation’s technology hub, exported USD 42.5 billion in 2024 and holds 20 industrial parks, leading to an 18.3% surge in property values. Querétaro tops the growth leaderboard with a forecast 7.21% CAGR, powered by ODATA’s hyperscale campus and abundant renewable power options.
The Bajío corridor benefits from lower land costs, generous state incentives, and improving road grids, positioning it for mixed-use town-center projects. Northern border cities collectively occupy 40% of national warehousing, yet vacancy is inching upward as speculative deliveries hit the market; Tijuana now has 300,000 m² under construction and a 3.6% vacancy, up from historic lows. Emerging nodes in México State capture spillover demand from the capital, while secondary inland cities leverage PPP corridors to attract retail and hospitality investment.
Competitive Landscape
The Mexico commercial real estate market is fragmented, with industrial holdings concentrated among leading FIBRAs and retail and office assets dispersed across regional players. Leading industrial holdings are dominated by top FIBRAs such as Fibra Uno, Fibra Prologis, and Terrafina. In contrast, retail and office assets remain dispersed across regional players. Fibra Uno boasts a portfolio of 613 assets, achieving an impressive 95.3% occupancy rate. Furthermore, its proposed merger with Terrafina and the Jupiter portfolio aims to consolidate nearly 490 properties, unlocking a development potential of 5.4 million m². This strategic move highlights a broader industry trend: the quest for economies of scale to reduce funding costs and enhance tenant offerings.
Technology is a principal differentiator: AI-driven energy monitoring, digital leasing workflows, and ESG dashboards attract global tenants demanding transparency. Fibra Danhos posted 11.9% revenue growth in Q1 2025, crediting smart-building retrofits across its retail centers. International logistics specialists, including Prologis, deploy rooftop solar and EV-truck charging to secure long-duration leases from e-commerce giants.
White-space opportunities persist in secondary metros where international capital is sparse, and in niche formats such as cold storage and life-science labs. Alternative lenders, crowdfunding vehicles, and green bonds are widening funding avenues, intensifying competition for core sites. Heightened M&A chatter suggests further consolidation as sponsors chase operational scale and data-center exposure.
Mexico Commercial Real Estate Industry Leaders
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Fibra Uno (FUNO)
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Prologis México (FIBRA Prologis)
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Terrafina
-
Vesta
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GICSA
- *Disclaimer: Major Players sorted in no particular order
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Recent Industry Developments
- March 2025: ODATA energized 200 MW at its DC QR03 campus in Querétaro, part of a USD 3.3 billion build-out to 400 MW total capacity.
- March 2025: Kerry Logistics completed a 20,000 m² last-mile warehouse in Tepotzotlán, with a roadmap to 50,000 m² and concurrent sites in Guadalajara, Monterrey, and the Bajío
- January 2025: Fitch Ratings assigned a BBB- rating to Fibra Uno’s planned USD 800 million senior notes, supporting debt-maturity extension.
- December 2024: Corporación Inmobiliaria Vesta closed a USD 545 million global syndicated sustainable credit facility, marking one of Mexico’s largest green financings .
Research Methodology Framework and Report Scope
Market Definitions and Key Coverage
Our study defines Mexico's commercial real estate market as income-generating non-residential property, office, retail, logistics/industrial, hospitality, and mixed-use assets, valued at prevailing capital-market prices and tracked through transactions, completions, and stabilized stock. According to Mordor Intelligence, leasing-only fees, construction services, and purely residential assets lie outside this frame.
Scope Exclusion (clarity first): bare land trading that lacks development permits is not counted.
Segmentation Overview
- By Property Type
- Offices
- Retail
- Logistics
- Others (Industrial, Hospitality, etc.)
- By Business Model
- Sales
- Rental
- By End-User
- Individuals / Households
- Corporates & SMEs
- Others
- By States
- Mexico City (CDMX)
- Nuevo Leon
- Jalisco
- Queretaro
- Mexico State (Edomex)
- Rest of Mexico
Detailed Research Methodology and Data Validation
Primary Research
Fortnightly calls and surveys with developers, FIBRA managers, brokers, building-tech vendors, and credit officers across Mexico City, Monterrey, Guadalajara, Tijuana, and Queretaro let us verify achievable rents, fit-out costs, and nearshoring tailwinds that secondary data hinted at but did not quantify. Inputs from these interviews guided vacancy-take-up lags and cap-rate spreads used in the model.
Desk Research
We gathered macro and property-level signals from tier-one public sources such as Banco de Mexico rate releases, INEGI construction output, Secretaria de Economia FDI dashboards, AMPIP industrial-park directories, SAT trade statistics, and CBRE/SiiLA vacancy bulletins. Company 10-Ks, REIT filings, and reputable press helped us gauge pipeline funding and rent benchmarks. To enrich gaps, our analysts tapped Dow Jones Factiva for deal news and D&B Hoovers for issuer financials. This list is illustrative; many additional publications underpinned data checks.
A second pass linked freight flows from Aduanas, e-commerce turnover from Asociacion de Internet MX, and highway concession awards to sub-sector uptake, thereby validating demand curves for last-mile warehouses and border sheds. Historical absorption figures were reconciled with permits held in the Registro Unico de Vivienda to filter speculative announcements.
Market-Sizing & Forecasting
We begin with a top-down stock reconstruction. Certified floor space and transaction logs are multiplied by average realized prices, then adjusted for shadow inventory and currency conversion. Results are sense-checked through selective bottom-up rollups of major FIBRA portfolios and sampled sales-price-per-square-meter evidence. Key variables like industrial absorption, peso lending rates, e-commerce parcel volume, foreign direct investment, and construction-input inflation feed a multivariate regression that projects value through 2030. Where bottom-up data show gaps, we prorate volumes using occupancy trends from verified property managers before blending into the master series.
Data Validation & Update Cycle
Outputs pass a three-layer review: automated outlier scans, senior analyst cross-checks with external yardsticks, and a final reconciliation against new deals logged in Dow Jones Factiva. Reports refresh annually; material events such as tax reform or large IPOs trigger interim recalculations, ensuring clients receive an up-to-date view.
Why Mordor's Mexico Commercial Real Estate Baseline Commands Confidence
Published estimates often diverge because firms choose different asset baskets, price bases, or refresh cadences. Our disciplined scope, variable selection, and annual re-benchmarking mean stakeholders can rely on one coherent yardstick.
Key gap drivers include some publishers counting only brokered rentals, others folding residential and raw land into totals, several applying macro GDP elasticities without property evidence, and many freezing exchange rates for multi-year spans.
Benchmark comparison
| Market Size | Anonymized source | Primary gap driver |
|---|---|---|
| USD 64.18 B (2025) | Mordor Intelligence | - |
| USD 5.13 B (2024) | Regional Consultancy A | Narrow rental fee scope, limited property types, unvalidated multipliers |
| USD 269.62 B (2023) | Global Consultancy B | Blends residential and land, GDP-based scaling, no asset-level checks |
| USD 48.25 B (2023) | Industry Journal C | Transaction-only lens, excludes owner-occupied industrial stock, fixed FX rate |
In sum, Mordor Intelligence delivers a balanced, transparent baseline grounded in verifiable property data and refreshed assumptions, giving decision-makers numbers they can trace, test, and trust.
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Key Questions Answered in the Report
What is the current size of the Mexico commercial real estate market?
The Mexico commercial real estate market size was USD 64.18 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach USD 68.52 billion by 2030.
Which property type holds the largest share?
Logistics facilities captured 32.12% of 2024 revenue, the highest among all property types.
Why are logistics assets growing so quickly?
Nearshoring from Asia to Mexico, combined with e-commerce expansion, is creating sustained demand for modern warehouses along the US border and in major metros.
How will data-center growth influence commercial real estate?
Large hyperscale campuses in Querétaro and Mexico City are pushing rents higher, spurring demand for power-resilient sites and complementary office and logistics space.
What impact does Banxico’s monetary policy have on developers?
Elevated policy rates increase borrowing costs, delaying new starts and pushing sponsors toward alternative financing structures until rates normalize.
Is rental or sales the preferred business model going forward?
Sales still dominate, but the rental model is expected to grow faster at a 7.46% CAGR as institutional investors seek steady income streams and tenants favor balance-sheet flexibility.
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