Coffee Trade Analysis Market Size and Share
Coffee Trade Analysis Market Analysis by Mordor Intelligence
The global coffee trading market size reached USD 135.2 billion in 2025 and is on course to attain USD 179.8 billion by 2030, advancing at a 5.9% CAGR. A resilient supply base, rising disposable incomes in emerging economies, and premiumization trends are keeping demand ahead of climatically constrained output. Historic price volatility, including the record USD 5.1 per kg Vietnamese benchmark in February 2025, is prompting traders to strengthen hedging and inventory strategies. Technology-enabled direct-trade platforms are narrowing the distance between growers and roasters, while sustainability compliance costs reshape sourcing choices. Europe preserves its leading consumption position, yet Asia-Pacific is growing fastest as urban lifestyles tip beverage choices toward coffee and away from traditional tea. Climate-related yield swings in Brazil and Vietnam remain the single largest uncertainty for the global coffee trading market.
Key Report Takeaways
- By geography, Europe commanded 30.1% of 2024 revenue; Asia-Pacific shows the fastest growth at 7.3% CAGR through 2030.
Global Coffee Trade Analysis Market Trends and Insights
Drivers Impact Analysis
| Driver | (~) % Impact on CAGR Forecast | Geographic Relevance | Impact Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|
| Growing specialty-coffee demand in emerging economies | +1.2% | Asia-Pacific core, spill-over to the Middle East | Medium term (2-4 years) |
| Expansion of sustainable-certified coffee procurement | +0.8% | Global, with European leadership | Long term (≥ 4 years) |
| Rising per-capita coffee consumption globally | +1.0% | Global, concentrated in urban areas | Long term (≥ 4 years) |
| Blockchain-enabled traceability premiums | +0.4% | North America and Europe, expanding to Asia-Pacific | Medium term (2-4 years) |
| Climate-smart intercropping boosting yields | +0.6% | America, Africa | Long term (≥ 4 years) |
| Post-COVID revival of out-of-home channels | +0.7% | Global, led by developed markets | Short term (≤ 2 years) |
| Source: Mordor Intelligence | |||
Growing Specialty-Coffee Demand in Emerging Economies
Robust retail expansion underlies a structural uplift in Asia-Pacific demand, where China’s branded outlet count jumped to almost 50,000 units in 2024, and consumers increasingly favor single-origin pour-overs. India and Vietnam now show similar urban lifestyle patterns, diverting premium beans into domestic circuits and reducing export availability. Vietnamese export volumes fell 38.2% between October 2024 and January 2025, even as value rose 8.8%, illustrating supply tightness.
Expansion of Sustainable-Certified Coffee Procurement
European shoppers pay confirmed premiums for UTZ labels on a 250 g pack, proving the commercial logic for certified sourcing. Nonetheless, only 26% of beans grown under a Voluntary Sustainability Standard (VSS) actually enter the market as certified, which erodes value capture[1]Source: European Commission, “Regulation (EU) 2023/915 Establishing Maximum Contaminant Levels,” europa.eu. Traders capable of merging multiple labels or deploying proprietary responsibility programs are, therefore, winning shares. Certification complexity, once a barrier, is quickly turning into a differentiator for digitally enabled intermediaries.
Rising Per-Capita Coffee Consumption Globally
Saudi Arabia consumed 6.3 million 60 kg bags in 2023–24 and plans to expand domestic farming with USD 319 million investment, signaling a shift in traditional demand geographies[2]Source: International Transport Forum, “Container Shipping Outlook 2024,” itf-oecd.org. The Middle East and North Africa’s branded outlet base rose 11% to 11,163 units, highlighting café culture momentum. Ready-to-drink products cater to convenience-focused, younger demographics and are forecast to grow faster than roasted beans. Higher consumption levels put added pressure on upstream supply, reinforcing the importance of yield-boosting agronomy and long-term farmer finance.
Blockchain-Enabled Traceability Premiums
Blockchain pilots, such as ScanTrust on Hyperledger Sawtooth, allow roasters to prove provenance from farm to cup and command shelf-level premiums. In Colombia, 74% of surveyed growers said they would adopt smart contract platforms that automate settlement and provide price guarantees. Implementation hurdles remain high for smallholders without digital infrastructure, driving a market for service providers that bundle hardware, finance, and compliance.
Restraints Impact Analysis
| Restraint | (~) % Impact on CAGR Forecast | Geographic Relevance | Impact Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arabica price volatility | -0.9% | Global, concentrated in import-dependent regions | Short term (≤ 2 years) |
| Stricter pesticide-residue limits | -0.6% | European Union and developed markets, expanding globally | Medium term (2-4 years) |
| Higher Red-Sea route insurance premiums | -0.4% | Global shipping routes, particularly the Europe-Asia trade | Short term (≤ 2 years) |
| Origin-country farm-labor shortages | -0.3% | Africa, Southeast Asia | Medium term (2-4 years) |
| Source: Mordor Intelligence | |||
Arabica Price Volatility
Brazilian arabica production is projected to drop 12.4% to 34.7 million bags in the 2025–26 harvest, causing spot prices to spike and exposing roasters that reduced hedging cover. Industry leaders, including JDE Peet’s and Starbucks, face higher procurement costs that ultimately flow into retail prices. The C-price benchmark also diverges from on-farm costs, prompting growers to bypass cooperatives and sell to intermediaries when prices soar, undermining fair-trade structures.
Stricter Pesticide-Residue Limits
The EU Deforestation Regulation, effective December 2025, obliges traders to prove beans are deforestation-free. Compliance will be expensive for the 70–80% of global coffee produced by smallholders, many of whom lack traceability systems[3].Source: Specialty Coffee Association, “EU Deforestation Regulation: Industry Guidance,” sca.coffee Supply chains unable to provide geolocation data risk exclusion from a market that absorbs 44% of coffee-related deforestation. Larger exporters with embedded laboratory capacity are positioned to fill any shortfall, potentially concentrating on the upstream segment.
Geography Analysis
Europe remained the largest regional buyer with a 30.1% share in 2024, anchored by sophisticated sustainability preferences and mature retail infrastructure. The EU Deforestation Regulation enters force at the end of 2025, positioning the bloc as a global compliance trend-setter while tightening market entry rules. Coffee-shop formats in Western Europe keep evolving, blending premium single-origin brews with value lunch combinations that shelter operators from price fatigue.
Asia-Pacific is the growth engine of the global coffee trading market, expanding at a 7.3% CAGR by 2030. China’s outlet boom underscores a swift cultural shift toward coffee and signals reduced sensitivity to foreign exchange swings as domestic consumption rises. India’s café culture is still at an early phase, but already shows robust same-store sales, while Vietnam’s dual role as producer and consumer tightens export flows. Instant formats dominate in many Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) economies because they suit on-the-go habits and humid climates where refrigeration is costly.
North America benefits from deep futures markets that smooth procurement but faces labor constraints in specialty retail. Large roasters hedge exposure with diversified origin baskets, balancing South American arabica with African and Asian Robusta. South America’s dual identity as the main supply hub and a growth consumption region test logistical networks, especially during harvest peaks when port congestion lengthens transit times. Middle Eastern governments allocate capital to local farming, aiming to capture more of the value chain and lessen import bills.
Note: Segment share of all individual segments available upon report purchase
Recent Industry Developments
- June 2025: Nestlé announced a USD 1.3 billion investment plan to expand coffee processing capacity in Brazil, underscoring confidence in origin-based manufacturing.
- June 2025: TYPICA Holdings secured a 3 billion yen direct-trade agreement targeting long-term fixed pricing for growers.
- March 2025: Ethiopia recorded USD 1.226 billion in coffee export earnings within eight months of the 2024-25 fiscal year.
- December 2024: Sojourner Consumer Partners bought a stake in Hawaii Coffee Company to boost North American packaged lines.
Research Methodology Framework and Report Scope
Market Definitions and Key Coverage
Mordor Intelligence defines the coffee trade market as the annual value generated when green, roasted, or decaffeinated coffee beans physically move across customs borders and are recorded by trade statistics in USD terms at free-on-board or cost-insurance-freight prices. All intra-regional re-exports are counted once to avoid double booking, and volumes are normalized to 60 kg bag equivalents.
Scope Exclusions: Soluble coffee, ready-to-drink beverages, coffee machines, and non-commercial humanitarian shipments are left outside the study.
Segmentation Overview
- By Geography (Import Analysis [Volume and Value] and Export Analysis [Volume and Value])
- North America
- United States
- Canada
- Mexico
- South America
- Brazil
- Colombia
- Peru
- Ecuador
- Europe
- Germany
- Italy
- France
- United Kingdom
- Spain
- Russia
- Asia-Pacific
- China
- Japan
- India
- Indonesia
- Philippines
- Vietnam
- Middle East
- Saudi Arabia
- United Arab Emirates
- Africa
- Ethiopia
- Kenya
- Uganda
- South Africa
- North America
Detailed Research Methodology and Data Validation
Primary Research
We spoke with exporters in Brazil, importers in Germany, logistics providers in Singapore, and green-coffee traders in Kenya. These discussions tested our secondary findings, revealed contract-grade pricing spreads, and clarified how sustainability rules are reshaping trade flows.
Desk Research
Our analysts first mapped official time series from sources such as the International Coffee Organization, UN Comtrade, the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service, International Trade Centre trade maps, and tariff schedules released by the World Customs Organization. We reviewed central-bank import bills, national statistics, and customs dashboards to capture price and volume shifts for every major origin-destination lane. Company filings, investor decks, reputable news wires, and academic journals then helped us spot policy changes, freight bottlenecks, and quality-related premiums. The sources cited above are illustrative only; many additional publications informed the data collection and validation process.
Market-Sizing & Forecasting
A top-down reconstruction begins with national export and import volumes, which are then valued using country-specific average unit prices before currency conversion. Supplier roll-ups and sampled average selling price times volume checks provide a selective bottom-up counterpoint that closes obvious gaps. Key model inputs include ICO composite price trends, differential freight rates, stock-to-use ratios, per-capita consumption growth, and tariff or quota revisions. Multivariate regression links these variables to historical trade receipts, and scenario analysis adjusts for weather shocks and policy swings. Where bottom-up checks diverge, we re-contact interviewees or adjust coefficients within documented tolerance bands.
Data Validation & Update Cycle
Models pass two rounds of peer review, anomaly flags trigger reruns, and variance above three percentage points prompts fresh expert calls before sign-off. Reports refresh each year, while material events such as export bans or currency swings can lead to interim revisions. An analyst re-verifies all numbers just before delivery.
Why Mordor's Coffee Trade Analysis Baseline Earns Trust
Published figures often differ because firms pick unlike product baskets, assume varied average prices, or refresh data on different cycles.
Key Gap Drivers include competitor models that merge soluble coffee with bean trade, apply flat price assumptions instead of lane-level averages, or project growth from consumer demand rather than observable customs flows, which inflates or deflates totals against Mordor's scope-pure baseline.
Benchmark comparison
| Market Size | Anonymized source | Primary gap driver |
|---|---|---|
| USD 135.20 B (2025) | Mordor Intelligence | - |
| USD 269.27 B (2024) | Global Consultancy A | Blends downstream beverages with bean shipments |
| USD 102.98 B (2025) | Regional Consultancy A | Uses limited price benchmarks and omits re-exports |
| USD 137.97 B (2024) | Industry Association B | Converts volume to value with single global average price |
The comparison shows that when scope clarity, multi-source prices, and annual refresh discipline converge, our baseline lands in the middle of external ranges, giving decision-makers a balanced and traceable starting point.
Key Questions Answered in the Report
What is the size of the global coffee trading market and how fast is it growing?
The market is valued at USD 135.2 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach USD 179.8 billion by 2030, reflecting a 5.9% CAGR.
Which region is expanding the fastest in coffee trading?
Asia-Pacific leads growth with a 7.3% CAGR through 2030, driven by urbanization, higher disposable incomes, and a shift toward coffee consumption.
What effect will the EU Deforestation Regulation have on coffee trade?
From December 2025, exporters must prove beans are deforestation-free, raising compliance costs for smallholders but opening opportunities for traceable, certified suppliers.
Why is blockchain technology gaining traction in coffee supply chains?
Platforms that record immutable provenance data let roasters prove origin, capture traceability premiums, and prepare for regulations such as the EU Deforestation Regulation.
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