Cargo Shipping Market Size & Share Analysis - Growth Trends and Forecast (2026 - 2031)

Global Cargo Shipping Market Trends and Insights

E-Commerce-Led Demand for High-Frequency, Small-Lot Ocean Moves

In recent years, cross-border e-commerce transactions have experienced significant growth. This trend has pushed carriers to focus on increasing departure frequency rather than solely optimizing slot utilization. Consequently, traditional full-container-load models have shifted toward smaller, time-sensitive consignments. To adapt to this change, liner operators have introduced express loops between Asia and North America, significantly reducing port-to-port transit times compared to previous years. Additionally, several fulfillment centers have been established near major ports, enhancing door-to-port integration and enabling premium pricing for expedited services. While customs agencies are experimenting with pre-clearance protocols, inconsistent implementation across regions has added compliance challenges, particularly for smaller forwarders. These developments have created a divided freight landscape: commodity bulk remains cost-sensitive, whereas e-commerce shipments exhibit inelastic demand and command premium rates, providing carriers with a safeguard against spot market volatility.

Shifting Sourcing Patterns Boosting South-South Trade Lanes

Between 2020 and 2024, intra-developing-country flows experienced significant growth, surpassing the pace of North-South trade and redirecting capacity toward the China-Africa and South America-Asia corridors. By 2024, container traffic between China and Africa will have expanded notably, supported by Belt and Road infrastructure projects and increasing African consumption. Maersk’s new Santos-Shanghai service, launched in 2025, shaved four days off transit and circumvented Panama Canal congestion, highlighting carrier redeployment toward emergent lanes ^{[2]“Express Route Launches,” Maersk, maersk.com}. In 2024, the African Continental Free Trade Area's removal of tariffs on most internal goods led to a notable rise in demand for coastal short-sea services. This shift toward a more diverse range of cargoes, including electronics and perishables, has driven the need for greater investment in reefer capacity. These investments have increased capital intensity and created high-margin opportunities, presenting challenges for smaller market participants.

IMO Decarbonization Deadlines Accelerating Fleet Renewal Cycles

The IMO’s Carbon Intensity Indicator framework requires consistent annual efficiency improvements through 2030, with penalties imposed on vessels that fail to comply. In recent years, the demand for alternative-fuel ships has grown significantly, with a notable focus on methanol and ammonia propulsion systems. Leading companies in the shipping industry have made substantial investments in expanding their fleets with environmentally friendly vessels. At the same time, older ships are being retired at a steady pace, as the cost of retrofitting them to meet modern standards has become increasingly prohibitive. Current regulations favor compliant vessels with better market opportunities, while older, non-compliant ships are being relegated to less profitable routes, reducing their operational viability.

Rise of Multilateral and Plurilateral Trade-Agreement Pipelines

RCEP implemented measures that removed tariffs on a significant portion of goods within the region, driving growth in container volumes across the Asia-Pacific. Similarly, the CPTPP expanded its membership to include additional countries, which enhanced trade for Pacific-coast refrigerated goods. The AfCFTA's customs harmonization efforts improved border efficiency, leading to a reduction in logistics costs within the region. Carriers are increasingly deploying larger vessels for intra-regional routes to optimize operations. For example, COSCO introduced higher-capacity ships on the China-Southeast Asia routes, achieving cost efficiencies. However, fragmented rules of origin continue to require extensive digital documentation, favoring larger operators with advanced compliance platforms.

Volatile Bunker Fuel Prices and EU ETS Surcharges

In the first half of 2025, low-sulfur marine fuel prices experienced a significant increase compared to the previous year, influenced by production cuts from major oil producers. The implementation of ETS Phase IV has introduced substantial carbon charges for large vessels on Asia-Europe routes, with carriers passing a majority of these costs to customers through environmental surcharges. Despite a notable portion of the global fleet adopting scrubbers by 2025, the high installation costs continue to deter smaller operators, intensifying cost disparities within the industry. Contract negotiations now frequently include clauses for periodic rate reviews, transferring fuel cost risks to shippers. However, this shift reduces budget predictability and creates financial challenges for small and medium-sized enterprises.

Rising Geopolitical Exposure of Key Chokepoints

In recent years, Houthi attacks on Red Sea routes have forced Asia-Europe services to reroute around the Cape of Good Hope. This adjustment has significantly extended voyage durations and increased fuel expenses for each trip. A temporary closure of the Strait of Hormuz earlier this year caused a notable rise in oil prices and disrupted LNG carrier schedules, emphasizing the risks associated with chokepoint disruptions. Piracy incidents in the Malacca Strait have escalated, leading to higher insurance premiums for shipments passing through the area. To address these challenges, carriers have increasingly employed armed guards on vessels operating in high-risk waters, which has further raised operational costs and security-related responsibilities.

Segment Analysis

By Ship Type: Bulk Dominance Meets Reefer Acceleration

Bulk carriers generated 42.45% of 2025 revenue, anchored by iron ore, coal, and grain volumes that exhibit low substitution elasticity. This dominance stabilizes the cargo shipping market because infrastructure projects in India and Southeast Asia maintain a firm demand for raw materials. LNG carrier utilization climbed in 2024, fueled by Europe’s pivot away from Russian pipeline gas. Container ships are shifting toward mega-vessels, with 24,000 TEU units delivering a lower slot cost than their 14,000 TEU predecessors on the Asia-Europe routes. General cargo and multipurpose orders have decreased, confirming shippers' shift to containers, even for project cargo. Reefer-equipped container vessels constitute a small base yet are expected to grow at a 6.12% CAGR through 2031 as biologics, vaccines, and perishable produce increase cold-chain ocean demand.

Fleet composition reflects a premiumization divide: compliant reefer and LNG vessels command rate premiums of 15-20%, whereas legacy bulkers chase volatile spot charters. Maersk’s order for several reefer-centric vessels signals intensified competition for pharmaceutical corridors. With a significant portion of global tonnage being older vessels, increased scrapping is improving the utilization of modern ships, further intensifying the pricing disparity within the cargo shipping market.

Note: Segment shares of all individual segments available upon report purchase

By Vessel Size Class: Panamax Workhorse Faces Neo-Panamax Challenge

Panamax tonnage claimed 38.04% revenue in 2025, serving secondary ports where beam and draft cap ship size. Still, post-Panamax and neo-Panamax tonnage is expanding at 4.94% CAGR, pivoting on slot-cost economies as carriers up-sweep Asia-Europe and transpacific loops. Handy and Handymax bulkers sustain reliable demand in shallow-draft regional routes. Ultra-large container vessels (over 20,000 TEU) face berth restrictions at all but a few global terminals, curbing the further escalation of vessel dimensions.

Rising neo-Panamax penetration exerts pressure on canal infrastructure; transit waits averaged 10 days mid-2024, prompting carriers to evaluate Suez or Cape of Good Hope options even without geopolitical triggers. With no new orders beyond 25,000 TEU placed in 2024, scale economics appear saturated, redirecting capital toward fuel efficiency and digital systems rather than sheer vessel size within the cargo shipping market.

By Cargo Type: Containerization Gains Ground

Dry bulk continued to dominate with a 75.12% share in 2025 as iron ore shipments grew and grain exports rebounded following Black Sea corridor reopening. Despite a decline in European coal imports, the liquid bulk segment experienced growth, driven by an increase in LNG trade. Containerized flows are accelerating at a 5.75% CAGR as e-commerce, automotive CKD kits, and perishables migrate from break-bulk to containers. Vehicle exporters have significantly increased the use of containers for Asia-Europe shipments compared to previous years. Reefer container volumes also saw notable growth, with pharmaceuticals accounting for a substantial share, reflecting a regulatory emphasis on compliant cold chain logistics.

Containerization requires carriers to upgrade monitoring technology; IoT-enabled reefers deliver real-time temperature logs that satisfy regulatory audits and elevate service premiums. Consequently, capex allocation skews toward container fleets—particularly those equipped for controlled atmospheres—indicating that the cargo shipping market size for reefer containers will continue to rise faster than that of conventional dry bulk.

By Service Type: Liner Schedules Dominate

Fixed-day liner services accounted for 78.14% of the revenue in 2025 and are expected to grow at a 6.48% CAGR, benefiting from a significant share of surveyed shippers naming schedule reliability as their top selection criterion. Tramp charters remain vital for commodity trades but face lower 2024 Capesize earnings amid oversupply. Project and heavy-lift services, although niche, enjoy rate resilience due to their limited vessel count and specialized crane capabilities.

Maersk's Captain Peter platform exemplifies the impact of digitalization by significantly reducing manual workloads and incorporating dynamic yield management into its pricing strategy. As containerization continues to expand into project cargo and the automotive sector, liner operators are expected to strengthen their market share, further solidifying the advantages gained from consistent service patterns in the cargo shipping market.

Note: Segment shares of all individual segments available upon report purchase

By End-Use Industry: Pharma Outpaces Manufacturing

Manufacturing maintained its lead at 36.21% of the 2025 volume, driven by strong exports of electronics and vehicles in 2024. Yet, the pharmaceuticals and healthcare niche is accelerating at a 7.12% CAGR through 2031, as biologics and temperature-sensitive vaccines proliferate. Expanding reefer capacity and adherence to strict regulatory protocols have enhanced margins in this sector, offering carriers a reliable safeguard against bulk-rate fluctuations. The food and beverage industry, which heavily relies on reefer containers, continues to demonstrate stability. 

Additionally, electrical and electronics commodities are benefiting from the export momentum in the Asia-Pacific region, with notable growth in Vietnam's electronics shipments. The pharmaceutical sector's willingness to invest in GDP-compliant services ensures premium returns. This underscores the potential for specialized reefer assets and comprehensive visibility platforms, creating opportunities for carriers with advanced cold-chain capabilities to expand their market share in cargo shipping.

Geography Analysis

The Asia-Pacific region held a 47.13% share of the cargo shipping market in 2025 and is projected to grow at a 5.48% CAGR through 2031. China’s container throughput hit 330 million TEUs in 2024, anchored by mega-ports in Shanghai, Ningbo-Zhoushan, and Shenzhen ^{[3]“2024 Throughput Data,” China Ports & Harbours Association, chinaports.com}. Intra-regional volumes experienced significant growth due to RCEP tariff reductions. Vietnam's Hai Phong complex demonstrated strong performance, driven by the reshoring of electronics. Indonesia's Patimban Port has become a key player in supporting automotive exports, with substantial investments from Japanese OEMs for nearby assembly facilities. India's imports showed notable growth in 2024, supported by production-linked incentive schemes aimed at diversifying sourcing. To maintain their hub status, Japan and South Korea are upgrading berths with shore power and green fuel bunkering capabilities.

In 2025, North America and Europe demonstrated stable yet modest growth in trade volumes. The Los Angeles-Long Beach port remained a key hub, primarily handling imports of electronics, apparel, and furniture. Domestic EV production in the United States, driven by policy incentives, has reduced reliance on imports of EV components from Asia. In Europe, reshoring efforts contributed to increased container flows within the region, supported by an extensive short-sea network. Rotterdam continued to serve as a critical gateway for trade involving Germany and France, although labor disruptions posed significant challenges. Looking ahead, upcoming regulatory changes are expected to increase costs for imported goods, encouraging manufacturers to shift toward regional supply chains.

Meanwhile, South America, the Middle East, and Africa, though smaller in scale, are experiencing rapid growth. Brazil's primary port played a vital role in facilitating exports of agricultural and meat products, which formed a substantial portion of its outbound trade. Argentina's key port capitalized on rising demand for grain exports, particularly from Asia. In Africa, the implementation of a regional trade agreement significantly boosted short-sea shipping activity in both western and eastern regions. The major port in the United Arab Emirates leveraged its industrial zones to strengthen its position as a transshipment hub for East Africa. Despite maintaining its importance as a global trade route, the Suez Canal faced challenges as security concerns in the Red Sea prompted some ships to take alternative routes, impacting revenue. In Africa, Durban remained a leading port but continued to face operational inefficiencies due to aging infrastructure and labor-related issues.