Blue Hydrogen Market Size and Share
Market Overview
| Study Period | 2019 - 2030 |
|---|---|
| Market Volume (2025) | 4.11 Million tons |
| Market Volume (2030) | 5.91 Million tons |
| Growth Rate (2025 - 2030) | 7.56% CAGR |
| Fastest Growing Market | Asia-Pacific |
| Largest Market | Asia Pacific |
| Market Concentration | Medium |
Major Players
*Disclaimer: Major Players sorted in no particular order Image © Mordor Intelligence. Reuse requires attribution under CC BY 4.0. |
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Blue Hydrogen Market Analysis by Mordor Intelligence
The blue hydrogen market is currently valued at 4.11 million tons in 2025 and is forecast to reach 5.91 million tons by 2030, expanding at a 7.56% CAGR. Robust policy mandates on carbon emissions, a fast-maturing carbon capture and storage (CCS) project pipeline, and the ability to leverage existing natural-gas assets are the primary forces underpinning this growth[1]International Energy Agency, “Global Hydrogen Review 2024,” iea.org. Producers are also capitalising on cost reductions in carbon-capture technology as installed capacity scales, while end users in refining, chemicals, and heavy transport lock in long-term offtake agreements that de-risk new plants. Asia-Pacific continues to anchor demand thanks to proactive hydrogen roadmaps in Japan, South Korea, and China, whereas North America and Europe are accelerating project approvals through incentive programmes such as the U.S. 45V tax credit and the EU Hydrogen and Gas Market Directive. In parallel, synthetic e-fuel developers and steelmakers are surfacing as new customers, cementing a diverse demand base that supports the blue hydrogen market through 2030.
Key Report Takeaways
- By technology, Steam Methane Reforming (SMR) + CCS held 61.51% of blue hydrogen market share in 2024, while Autothermal Reforming (ATR) + CCS is poised to grow at a 12.17% CAGR through 2030.
- By end-user industry, the refining sector led with 39.19% revenue share in 2024; transportation is projected to post the fastest 7.91% CAGR to 2030.
- By geography, Asia-Pacific accounted for 38.19% of the blue hydrogen market size in 2024 and is advancing at a 9.21% CAGR between 2025 and 2030.
Global Blue Hydrogen Market Trends and Insights
Drivers Impact Analysis
| Driver | (~) % Impact on CAGR Forecast | Geographic Relevance | Impact Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|
| Surging Application of Blue Hydrogen in Fuel Cell Electric Vehicles | +1.80% | North America, Europe, Asia-Pacific | Medium term (2-4 years) |
| Rising Demand from the Chemical Sector | +2.10% | Global, Asia-Pacific focus | Short term (≤ 2 years) |
| Fast-growing CCS Project Pipeline Drives Cost Down | +2.40% | North America, Europe | Medium term (2-4 years) |
| Brown-field Reuse of Gas Grids & Salt-cavern Storage | +1.20% | Europe, North America | Medium term (2-4 years) |
| Synthetic e-fuel Demand from Shipping & SAF Blends | +1.50% | Global, Europe emphasis | Long term (≥ 4 years) |
| Source: Mordor Intelligence | |||
Surging application of blue hydrogen in FCEVs
Medium- and heavy-duty fleets are turning to hydrogen fuel cell electric vehicles, where battery range and charging times remain limiting. Energy modelling for Southern California’s drayage trucks shows a daily demand of 165 US tons of hydrogen at 25% FCEV penetration. Automakers such as Toyota and BMW continue to commercialise FCEV platforms, citing cold-weather reliability and sub-5-minute refuelling as decisive advantages. Higher fuelling throughput translates to attractive utilisation rates for prospective stations, reinforcing a positive demand loop for the blue hydrogen market.
Rising demand from the chemical sector
Low-carbon ammonia and methanol projects are multiplying as producers seek cleaner feedstocks. A supply deal between ExxonMobil and Marubeni for 250,000 tonnes per year of low-carbon ammonia to Japan’s Kobe Power Plant exemplifies long-term offtake certainty that unlocks project finance. Stable chemical offtake volumes give developers confidence to build large blue hydrogen facilities, widening the addressable blue hydrogen market.
Fast-growing CCS project pipeline drives cost down
Global CCS capacity is expected to jump tenfold to 1 billion t CO₂ by 2030, slicing capture costs by up to 40% through standardisation and learning curves. Advances such as piperazine solvents and advanced flash strippers reduce the energy penalty of capture by 36.3% relative to conventional amines. These improvements strengthen plant economics and underpin the 7.56% CAGR forecast for the blue hydrogen market.
Brown-field Reuse of Gas Grids & Salt-cavern Storage
The repurposing of natural gas infrastructure for hydrogen transport and storage is driving blue hydrogen market growth. The Netherlands is leading with a national hydrogen transmission network using converted natural gas pipelines, cutting costs and timelines. Salt cavern storage, previously for natural gas, is now adapted for hydrogen, with storage costs under 5% of total hydrogen production and distribution expenses. This reuse addresses the need for large-scale, seasonal storage to balance supply and demand. Northwest Europe is advancing this transition with projects like the Porthos CO2 transport and storage initiative in the Netherlands and Norway's Northern Lights facility, showcasing integrated hydrogen and CO2 management systems.
Restraints Impact Analysis
| Restraint | (~) % Impact on CAGR Forecast | Geographic Relevance | Impact Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|
| Loss of Energy During Hydrogen Production | -1.20% | Global | Medium term (2-4 years) |
| High Production Cost | -1.50% | Global, higher in high-gas-price regions | Short term (≤ 2 years) |
| Water-stress Permitting Hurdles for Mega-projects | -0.80% | Middle East, Asia-Pacific, North America | Medium term (2-4 years) |
| Source: Mordor Intelligence | |||
Loss of energy during hydrogen production
Current SMR + CCS configurations suffer a 15-25% energy penalty versus grey hydrogen routes. Novel process integration, such as the ECSB concept, trims the penalty by 36.3%, while ATR combined with liquefied oxygen pre-cooling lowers specific energy use by 6.6%. Despite progress, thermodynamic limits ensure that efficiency losses remain a structural restraint on the blue hydrogen market.
Water-stress permitting hurdles for mega-projects
Four in ten planned low-emission hydrogen projects are sited in water-stressed areas, complicating permits and extending timelines beyond 24 months. Developers are exploring non-potable water feeds and advanced recycling, yet uncertainty persists, trimming growth potential for the blue hydrogen market in arid regions.
Segment Analysis
By Technology: ATR ascendancy reshapes production economics
The blue hydrogen market size for ATR + CCS is on track to climb at a 12.17% CAGR from 2025 to 2030, reflecting carbon-capture efficiencies of up to 99%[2]Johnson Matthey, “Autothermal Reforming Hydrogen,” matthey.com . SMR + CCS, while dominant at 61.51% blue hydrogen market share in 2024, faces retrofit limits that temper future gains. Gas Partial Oxidation + CCS serves niche feedstock-flexible applications, whereas natural-gas pyrolysis draws interest for producing hydrogen with solid carbon by-product and 47.72% lower CO₂ intensity in integrated urea chains. Hybrid SMR-ATR designs that couple ATR with CO₂ electrolysis are emerging to balance capital intensity and capture rates, reinforcing technology diversity within the blue hydrogen industry.
Investment momentum is channelling toward ATR because its single-reactor layout reduces parasitic load, enabling lower levelised cost of hydrogen at scale. Project developers also value the ease of pairing ATR with saline-aquifer CO₂ storage, which is abundant in North America and the Middle East. Nonetheless, the extensive installed base of SMR units offers a retrofit pathway that keeps SMR relevant through the forecast period, especially where existing steam networks and skilled labour pools are available.
Note: Segment Share of all individual segments available upon report purchase
By End-user Industry: Refining leadership masks diversification trend
Refineries consumed 39.19% of blue hydrogen in 2024, largely for hydrocracking and desulfurisation. The blue hydrogen market size allocated to refining is projected to grow steadily as tightening fuel-sulphur standards in Asia fuel demand, although incremental growth is modest compared with emerging segments. Chemicals hold second place, with ammonia and methanol synthesis underpinning long-term offtake deals such as CF Industries’ Louisiana complex.
Transportation, the fastest-expanding segment at 7.91% CAGR, gains from fleet decarbonisation mandates for buses, trucks, and off-road equipment. Steelmakers are piloting hydrogen-based direct reduced iron processes that cut emissions by 90%, but abatement costs above USD 500/t CO₂ slow widespread uptake. Smaller industrial users in glass and food processing turn to blue hydrogen where high-temperature heat is hard to electrify, adding to demand diversity in the blue hydrogen market.
Note: Segment Share of all individual segments available upon report purchase
Geography Analysis
Asia-Pacific commanded 38.19% of the blue hydrogen market in 2024 and is set to lead with a 9.21% CAGR through 2030. Japan’s Hydrogen Society Promotion Act earmarks JPY 3 trillion to secure 3 million t of clean hydrogen by 2030. South Korea and China are scaling similar subsidy frameworks, while state-owned enterprises co-invest in CCS hubs. This policy cohesion, coupled with rising demand for synthetic fuels in Asia’s shipping corridors, anchors regional growth for the blue hydrogen market.
North America leverages abundant shale gas and supportive policy. The United States has announced USD 107 billion of hydrogen capital expenditure across 127 projects, 64% of which target blue hydrogen. ExxonMobil’s Baytown scheme alone will supply 1 billion scf per day of low-carbon hydrogen and capture 7.5 million t CO₂ annually. Canada supports more than 80 production projects worth over USD 100 billion[3]Natural Resources Canada, “Hydrogen Strategy for Canada: Progress Report,” natural-resources.canada.ca .
Europe is building an integrated hydrogen network that combines offshore CO₂ storage with repurposed gas grids. The Netherlands plans 4 GW of electrolyser capacity alongside large blue hydrogen hubs and salt-cavern storage. The EU Hydrogen and Gas Market Directive mandates infrastructure unbundling and transparent tariffs to spur cross-border trade. These measures, paired with regional CO₂ transport projects like Porthos, sustain long-term demand for the blue hydrogen market.
Competitive Landscape
The blue hydrogen market is moderately fragmented, with oil majors and industrial gas suppliers accounting for approximately 36% of its capacity. Companies such as ExxonMobil, Air Products, Air Liquide, and Saudi Aramco have integrated upstream gas, reforming technology, CCS infrastructure, and offtake agreements into unified portfolios. For example, Aramco and Air Products Qudra established the Blue Hydrogen Industrial Gases Company to supply Saudi Arabia’s Eastern Province. Additionally, Air Liquide’s support for two of the six U.S. hydrogen hubs most likely to secure funding highlights its disciplined approach to capital allocation.
Technological innovation serves as a critical differentiator in the market. Johnson Matthey’s LCH-based ATR, combined with gas-heated reforming, achieves CO₂ capture rates of up to 99% and delivers the lowest levelised cost in the market. Demonstrating vertical integration, Linde’s USD 2 billion Alberta plant will supply blue hydrogen directly to Dow’s plastics complex.
Blue Hydrogen Industry Leaders
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Air Liquide
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Air Products and Chemicals, Inc.
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Equinor ASA
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Linde PLC
-
Shell plc
- *Disclaimer: Major Players sorted in no particular order
Recent Industry Developments
- March 2025: Saudi Aramco, in partnership with Air Products Qudra, has acquired a 50% stake in Blue Hydrogen Industrial Gases Company (BHIG) to enhance the production and supply of blue hydrogen in Saudi Arabia's Eastern Province. This strategic move is expected to strengthen the blue hydrogen market by increasing availability and supporting the region's transition to cleaner energy solutions.
- August 2024: Linde has approved a USD 2 billion investment for a blue hydrogen plant in Alberta, Canada, which will supply Dow's net-zero petrochemical complex. This development is expected to strengthen the blue hydrogen market by driving advancements in sustainable energy solutions and supporting the transition to low-carbon industrial operations.
Research Methodology Framework and Report Scope
Market Definitions and Key Coverage
Our study defines the blue hydrogen market as all hydrogen that is generated from natural-gas reforming routes, principally Steam Methane Reforming and Autothermal Reforming, where at least 90 % of the process CO₂ is captured and permanently stored or utilized.
Scope Exclusion: Production routes without carbon capture (gray hydrogen) and renewable electrolysis routes (green hydrogen) are excluded.
Segmentation Overview
- By Technology
- Steam Methane Reforming (SMR) + CCS
- Autothermal Reforming (ATR) + CCS
- Gas Partial Oxidation (GPOX) + CCS
- Natural-Gas Pyrolysis / NGD
- Integrated SMR–ATR Hybrid
- By End-user Industry
- Refining
- Chemicals
- Iron and Steel
- Transportation
- Other Industries (Cement, Glass, Food, etc.)
- Geography
- Asia-Pacific
- China
- India
- Japan
- South Korea
- Rest of Asia-Pacific
- North America
- United States
- Canada
- Mexico
- Europe
- Germany
- United Kingdom
- France
- Italy
- Rest of Europe
- South America
- Brazil
- Argentina
- Rest of South America
- Middle East and Africa
- Saudi Arabia
- South Africa
- Rest of Middle-East and Africa
- Asia-Pacific
Detailed Research Methodology and Data Validation
Primary Research
Discussions were held with reformer licensors, carbon-transport operators, and procurement leads at refineries and chemical complexes across North America, Europe, the Gulf, and East Asia. These conversations clarified current capture rates, realistic capacity factors, and price pass-throughs, helping us reconcile desk findings and calibrate regional assumptions.
Desk Research
Mordor analysts began with public datasets such as the IEA Hydrogen Projects Database, US EIA natural-gas balances, Eurostat emission registries, and CCUS capacity ledgers published by the Global CCS Institute, followed by trade-group digests from the Hydrogen Council and the Asia Natural Gas and Energy Association. Company 10-Ks, refinery turnaround reports, and government tender portals added facility-level context. Subscription resources, including D&B Hoovers for company financials and Dow Jones Factiva for deal flow, were consulted to validate ownership structures and commissioning timelines. The sources listed illustrate the evidence base; many additional documents were consulted during data collection and cross-checks.
Market-Sizing and Forecasting
A top-down build triangulated national natural-gas reforming capacity, blue-conversion ratios, and weighted capacity utilization. Selective bottom-up checks, announced project roll-ups and sampled contract ASP × volume, were used to fine-tune totals. Key variables driving the model include reformer nameplate capacity, average capture efficiency, regional natural-gas spreads, 45V/ETS incentive values, and industrial hydrogen off-take growth. Forecasts to 2030 employ multivariate regression that links the variables above to expected blue-hydrogen output, with scenario bounds vetted by interviewees.
Data Validation and Update Cycle
Outputs pass three layers of variance testing before sign-off. We compare modeled volumes with pipeline-grade CO₂ injection data and ammonia refinery hydrogen demand, re-querying experts where deviations exceed thresholds. Reports refresh annually and are re-checked for material project or policy shifts before dispatch.
Why Our Blue Hydrogen Baseline Commands Reliability
Published estimates often diverge because firms mix production routes, apply contrasting price decks, or freeze project lists for long periods.
Key Gap Drivers here stem from (i) Mordor's volume-first scope that strips out gray and by-product hydrogen, (ii) our real-time project ledger that is updated each quarter, and (iii) currency neutrality which avoids volatile ASP multipliers that can swing revenue values by double digits year on year.
Benchmark comparison
| Market Size | Anonymized source | Primary gap driver |
|---|---|---|
| 4.11 million tons (2025) | Mordor Intelligence | - |
| USD 18.2 billion (2022) | Global Consultancy A | Blends gray and blue volumes and applies average spot hydrogen prices without CCS cost adders |
| USD 7.0 billion (2025) | Industry Journal B | Focuses on OECD regions only and counts captive refinery output at historical utilization rates |
| USD 2.51 billion (2025) | Trade Publication C | Uses conservative project pipeline, excludes transportation end-use, and applies 2023 currency rates |
In summary, differing scopes, price assumptions, and refresh cadences explain the wide spread of published figures. By anchoring our baseline to verified capacity, capture efficiency, and contemporaneous policy signals, Mordor Intelligence delivers a transparent, repeatable benchmark that decision-makers can trust.
Key Questions Answered in the Report
What is the current blue hydrogen market size and projected growth?
The market stands at 4.11 million tons in 2025 and is forecast to reach 5.91 million tons by 2030, reflecting a 7.56% CAGR.
Which region leads the blue hydrogen market?
Asia-Pacific held 38.19% share in 2024 and is expected to remain dominant with a 9.21% CAGR through 2030, driven by aggressive decarbonisation policies.
What technology is growing fastest in blue hydrogen production?
ATR + CCS is projected to expand at a 12.17% CAGR because it can capture up to 99% of CO₂ emissions.
Which end-user segment will grow quickest?
Transportation is the fastest-growing end-user, advancing at a 7.91% CAGR as hydrogen fuel cell vehicles penetrate heavy-duty fleets.
How are costs for blue hydrogen expected to change?
CCS scale-up is forecast to cut capture costs by 30-40% by 2030, narrowing the cost gap versus grey hydrogen, especially in regions with supportive incentives.
What are the main barriers to blue hydrogen deployment?
High production costs, energy efficiency penalties, and water-stress permitting hurdles for mega-projects remain key challenges limiting rapid scale-up.
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