Australia Luxury Residential Real Estate Market Size & Share Analysis - Growth Trends And Forecast (2025 - 2030)

Australia Luxury Residential Real Estate Market Trends and Insights

High preference for waterfront, branded, and heritage-upgraded residences

The demand for waterfront, branded, and heritage-upgraded residences continues to grow, reflecting evolving buyer preferences in the real estate market. Waterfront properties now command a 69% premium nationwide, with Sydney leading at a staggering 104.7% and Perth witnessing a notable rise to 61.1%, up from 53.6% before the pandemic. Almost 40% of super-prime transactions now feature direct water access, underscoring the shift of water proximity from a mere amenity to a vital necessity. The allure of a property intensifies when its architectural significance meets a prime location, exemplified by Sydney's Woolwich Vailele estate, which fetched a whopping USD 16.1 million (AUD 24 million). Branded developments, like Renzo Piano's One Sydney Harbour, are not just setting benchmarks but creating ripples throughout the market. Today's buyers are leaning towards distinctiveness, moving away from cookie-cutter luxury offerings.

Strong inflow of ultra-high-net-worth migrants

Australia continues to solidify its position as a preferred destination for ultra-high-net-worth individuals, driven by its stable political environment and exceptional quality of life. Australia, part of the elite "Safe Haven 8," continues to attract wealthy migrants who value political stability and a high quality of life. In 2025, while the influx of millionaires reached a historic low, the caliber of arrivals saw an upswing, thanks to new visa pathways that favor those with immediate purchasing power. Prime apartments in Sydney command an average of USD 22,700 per sq m. Meanwhile, Melbourne is becoming a hotspot for Asia-Pacific families, drawn by its diverse educational opportunities. The rise of off-market "stealth wealth" transactions, surpassing USD 60 million, highlights the sophisticated, publicity-averse strategies of this elite group. Even as overall migration trends downwards, this affluent demographic is poised to bolster property values.

Rising trend of sustainability and smart-home integration

The growing emphasis on sustainability and smart-home integration is reshaping the luxury housing market. Across the nation, energy-efficient luxury homes command a 17% premium, with Queensland leading at 28.9% and Victoria not far behind at 24%. In South Melbourne, Greystar's Gladstone tower, a USD 335 million (AUD 500 million) investment, boasts 5-star Green Star ratings and 6-star acoustic credentials, seamlessly blending ESG standards with opulence. For offshore owners grappling with vacancy levies, smart-home automation offers a solution, allowing for remote property oversight. With mandatory energy disclosures on the horizon, the valuation chasm between energy-efficient and traditional properties is set to widen. Developers who adopt green technologies early stand to reap significant rewards.

Government investor visas and foreign investment channels

Foreign investment policies and migration strategies are undergoing significant changes in 2024. In 2024, the introduction of the National Innovation Visa shifts the focus of migration towards talent, all while maintaining a strong demand for premium properties. While established-home purchases are off-limits to foreigners until 2027, opportunities remain in new builds and Build-to-Rent assets, subtly redirecting capital flows without a complete halt. Since 2020, over 25,000 Global Talent Independent visas have been granted, underscoring the state's commitment to attracting high-value migrants. Recent policy adjustments have expedited approvals for low-risk cases, indicating a refinement of approach rather than a pullback. As a result, select foreign funds persist in bolstering development finance.

High stamp duty and foreign-buyer surcharges

Australia has introduced significant tax measures targeting foreign property buyers. In New South Wales, surcharges surged to 9%, while Queensland saw an 8% increase. As a result, non-residents now face total duties exceeding 16% on premium transactions. The Treasury Laws Amendment (Foreign Investment) Act 2024 has retroactively endorsed these charges, eliminating any relief from double taxation. Starting in 2025, capital-gains withholding will rise to 15%. Additionally, foreign-owned homes that remain unused will incur vacancy charges, ranging between USD 28,100 and USD 84,600 each year. These taxes are likely to shrink net yields and may dissuade price-sensitive foreign buyers in the immediate future. In contrast, domestic buyers with established tax residences enjoy reduced costs, giving them a competitive edge^{[1]Revenue NSW, “Foreign Purchaser Duty Surcharge Changes 2024,” revenue.nsw.gov.au}.

Limited supply of prime land in major cities

The limited availability of prime land in major cities is significantly impacting urban development. In Sydney Harbour, Melbourne's Yarra precinct, and Brisbane's riverfront, stringent planning controls are capping density and driving up acquisition costs. Heritage overlays, coupled with community pushback, are extending approval timelines. For instance, Mirvac's ambitious USD 13.4 billion (AUD 20 billion) pipeline is now grappling with multi-year lead times. While construction costs have seen a recent dip, they remain elevated, squeezing margins for new projects. With fewer developable sites available, developers are increasingly turning to adaptive-reuse and air-rights schemes, both of which introduce heightened design and financing complexities. This constrained pipeline is bolstering appreciation for existing holdings due to scarcity, yet it's simultaneously stunting broader market growth.

Segment Analysis

By Business Model: Sales Transactions Anchor Market Scale

Sales held 80.1% of the Australia luxury residential real estate market share in 2024, underscoring the nation’s ownership-centric wealth strategies. The segment’s depth is reinforced by the absence of inheritance tax, encouraging intergenerational title transfer and bolstering the Australia luxury residential real estate market size. Pre-sale performance illustrates liquidity; Lendlease secured 89% commitments at One Sydney Harbour before completion. Domestic buyers now dominate, offsetting a softer offshore cohort following the April 2025 temporary ban on established-home purchases. Asset managers continue to view prime freehold as a hedge against currency fluctuations and volatility in listed equities.

Rental assets, though representing a smaller base, are forecast to grow at an 8.21% CAGR, propelled by institutional Build-to-Rent pipelines that deliver hotel-style amenity with lease flexibility. Greystar’s Gladstone opening offers 700 units with premium shared spaces, signalling how the Australia luxury residential real estate market can diversify into service-oriented occupancy models. The emerging tenancy class values turnkey living and ESG assurance over capital gains. While sales will remain dominant, the rental play will widen the market’s appeal to transient executives and expatriates wary of transaction costs.

By Property Type: Apartments Maintain Lead While Villas Accelerate

Apartments and condominiums captured 59.9% of 2024 value, reflecting urban density and concierge-driven convenience that appeals to international and time-poor executives. The Australia luxury residential real estate market size for high-rise formats benefits from land scarcity and skyline cachet; Renzo Piano’s glass-walled One Sydney Harbour sets a USD 34,000 per sq m record. Developers are upsizing internal footprints to 3- and 4-bedroom layouts to siphon demand from villas. Heritage conversions, such as Mirvac’s Harbourside Residences, blend apartment efficiency with prestige location, widening the buyer funnel.

Villas and landed houses, though smaller in share, are projected to post an 8.55% CAGR as post-pandemic preferences tilt toward outdoor space and privacy. Perth’s Attadale suburb sees trophy homes selling for USD 4.7 million (AUD 7 million), a material leap on pre-2023 benchmarks. Waterfront villas consistently reap the strongest appreciation, with Sydney assets transacting at more than double inland equivalents. Customization potential and multigenerational layouts lend durability to this momentum, making villas the market’s fastest-rising star.

By Mode of Sale: Secondary Market Dominance Signals Depth

Secondary-home resales controlled 60.3% of turnover in 2024, demonstrating liquidity and depth across established precincts. The Australia luxury residential real estate market share held by secondary stock is set to expand further as the foreign-buyer ban constrains fresh offshore acquisition avenues, intensifying competition among domestic purchasers. High-value transactions are increasingly conducted off-market to preserve privacy; several USD 60 million-plus homes changed hands in 2024 without public listing.

Primary sales will benefit from redirected international capital, as foreign investors retain access to new builds; this regulatory niche supports developers’ financing models. The Australia luxury residential real estate market size attributable to primary releases is poised to widen once projects now in planning reach completion after 2027. Pre-sale velocity remains brisk: Mirvac reported a USD 950 million residential pre-sale book in December 2024, providing earnings visibility. Yet, given planning lags and land constraints, secondary deals are expected to remain the bellwether for price discovery.

Geography Analysis

In 2024, Sydney retained its 38.7% share of the national value, despite a 0.7% decline in headline prices. Local ultra-high-net-worth individuals and returning expatriates leveraged favorable currency conditions and global value perceptions, ensuring steady absorption rates. Waterfront properties commanded a significant 104.7% premium. Additionally, Lendlease completed developments worth USD 8.2 billion in FY24, reflecting long-term confidence in Sydney's appeal. While regulatory measures may temporarily limit offshore purchases, strong domestic wealth creation and restricted land availability are expected to support consistent demand.

Melbourne experienced a 2.1% price decline but continues to attract family-focused investments due to its leading universities and cultural infrastructure. The USD 2.75 billion Jam Factory redevelopment, led by Gurner and Qualitas, demonstrates sustained developer interest in premium mixed-use developments. Prime properties in the Yarra corridor average USD 15,800 per sq m, with branded offerings helping to maintain price stability^{[2]Architecture & Design, “Jam Factory Redevelopment Details,” architectureanddesign.com.au}.

Brisbane is projected to be the fastest-growing city, with a 9.03% CAGR through 2030. Interstate migration from southern capitals and increased infrastructure investments ahead of the 2032 Olympic Games are driving demand. Riverfront properties achieve a 47.4% premium, with recent super-prime sales reaching USD 11.8 million (AUD 17.6 million). Strong population growth and relatively affordable luxury pricing indicate further growth potential.

Perth recorded a 3.8% price increase, ranking it 16th globally. The city's mining-driven economic growth and waterfront prices below USD 6,700 per sq m have attracted buyers from the east coast, expanding the luxury market westward. Beyond the major cities, coastal lifestyle destinations such as Byron Bay and the Gold Coast continue to attract discretionary spending, reflecting a maturing and geographically diverse premium market.