India Aviation Market SIZE & SHARE ANALYSIS - GROWTH TRENDS & FORECASTS UP TO 2030

India Aviation Market Analysis

The India Aviation Market size is estimated at 14.78 billion USD in 2025, and is expected to reach 26.08 billion USD by 2030, growing at a CAGR of 12.03% during the forecast period (2025-2030).

India's aviation sector has emerged as one of the fastest-growing industries, with the commercial aviation industry contributing USD 30 billion to India's GDP in 2021. The country's ambitious infrastructure expansion plans include opening 100 additional airports by 2024, significantly enhancing aviation infrastructure across regions. The government's focus on ease of doing business in aviation has led to strategic policy changes, such as reducing customs duty from 2.5% to 0% on aircraft components for public sector defense manufacturing units. This comprehensive approach to growth in the aviation sector has positioned India to become the world's third-largest domestic aviation market by 2024, with projections indicating the air fleet size will double from 600 to 1,200 aircraft during the same period.

The Make in India initiative has catalyzed significant transformations in the domestic aviation manufacturing landscape. A notable example is the establishment of the Tata Boeing Aerospace Limited (TBAL) facility, which demonstrates the country's growing capabilities in indigenous aircraft production. The initiative has attracted major international manufacturers to establish production facilities in India, creating a robust aerospace industry ecosystem. The government's emphasis on self-reliance has led to the development of indigenous aircraft programs, with Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL) spearheading several key projects, including the development of the Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft.

The commercial aviation sector in India has witnessed unprecedented expansion through strategic international partnerships. India has established air bubble arrangements with 35 countries, providing connectivity to more than 100 countries worldwide. This international connectivity expansion is complemented by the Regional Connectivity Scheme, which aims to make air travel accessible to a broader demographic. The industry's growth trajectory is further evidenced by projections indicating India will have 480 million flyers by 2036, surpassing the combined air traffic of Japan and Germany.

Recent developments in fleet modernization have marked a significant turning point for Indian aviation. In March 2023, Air India placed one of the largest aircraft orders in commercial aviation history, comprising orders for 470 aircraft from Airbus and Boeing. This massive fleet expansion plan includes a mix of narrow-body and wide-body aircraft, demonstrating the industry's confidence in long-term growth in aviation prospects. The modernization extends beyond commercial aviation, with India being the fourth-largest defense spender globally and the second-largest in the Asia-Pacific region, driving significant investments in military aviation capabilities and indigenous defense manufacturing programs.

India Aviation Market Trends

Ease of restrictions and rising air passenger travel are driving the market demand

• In 2022, nearly 123.2 million passengers traveled by air. This was 47% more than the passenger numbers in 2021. The year closed with IndiGo retaining the market share crown at almost 55%, with others trailing far behind. Vistara and Air India were both a distant second in December with a market share of 9.2% each, followed by SpiceJet and AIX Connect (AirAsia India) with 7.6% each. Go First recorded a share of 7.5%, while Akasa Air ended the year with 2.3%.
• By carrying 69 million passengers in 2022, IndiGo improved its 2019 performance by a million when it carried almost 68 million passengers. This is after the company suffered from reduced capacity following the grounding of several of its planes. Domestic air passenger traffic grew 15 percent year-on-year to around 129 lakhs in December 2022 but remained 1 percent lower than the pre-pandemic level (December 2019). According to ICRA, the domestic aviation industry operated at an estimated passenger load factor of around 91% in December 2022 against approximately 80% in December 2021 and about 88% in December 2019.
• A total of 24.8 million passengers were carried by domestic airlines in India between January and March 2022, compared to 23.38 million during the same period in 2021. In March 2022, India resumed its scheduled international flights, leading to a surge in international passenger traffic. As a result, in April 2022, Indian carriers reached 1.85 million passengers, slightly surpassing the traffic recorded in April 2019, which was 1.83 million international passengers. As of January 2022, the country had air bubble arrangements with 35 countries aimed at restarting international travel. These air bubble arrangements will provide direct/indirect connectivity to more than 100 countries.

Geopolitical threats are the driving factor for rising defense expenditure

• India is the fourth-largest defense spender in the world and the second largest in the Asia-Pacific region. In 2022, the country's defense spending was USD 81.4 billion, a growth of 6% compared to 2021. India proposed USD 72.6 billion in defense spending for the 2023-24 financial year, 13% up from the previous period's initial estimates, aiming to add more fighter jets and roads along its tense border with China. The total Indian defense budget is estimated at 2% of GDP. India plans to spend nearly INR 242 billion (USD 3 billion) for naval fleet construction and INR 571.4 billion (USD 7 billion) for air force procurements, including more aircraft.
• The country's expenditure on capital outlays, which funds equipment upgrades for the armed forces and the military infrastructure along its disputed border with China, amounted to 23% of total military spending in 2022. Personnel expenses (e.g., salaries and pensions) remained the largest expenditure category in the Indian military budget, accounting for around half of all military spending.
• Recently, allocations for specifically indigenous purchases were made. The Tejas Light Combat Aircraft (LCA) Mk-1A, Light Combat Helicopters (LCH), basic trainer HTT-40 aircraft, Arjun Mk-1A tanks, several missiles, and other weapons may receive significant funding. Increased defense production will pave the way for exports and help offset expenses. Foreign equipment manufacturers are more likely to establish joint ventures (JVs) and attract foreign direct investment in high technology fields (FDI). Some of these joint ventures are also expected to aid in defense exports.

OTHER KEY INDUSTRY TRENDS COVERED IN THE REPORT

• Increasing growth in the e-commerce industry is driving the development of this segment
• Rising economic growth might support the market's growth in the country
• Increasing air travel is a growth driver in the country
• The increase in inflation may hinder air travelers, but economic growth may have a positive effect
• Fleet modernization and rising modern warfare are driving factors in the market studied
• The rise in HNWIs is acting as the major growth driver for the market growth

Segment Analysis: Aircraft Type

Commercial Aviation Segment in India Aviation Market

Commercial aviation dominates the Indian aviation market, accounting for approximately 86% market share in 2024. This segment's strong position is driven by increasing air passenger traffic and its recovery to pre-pandemic levels. The segment is witnessing substantial growth through fleet expansion plans of major airlines like IndiGo, Air India, and Vistara. The procurement of new aircraft types, particularly narrowbody aircraft like the A320 family, continues to strengthen this segment's position. Major developments include Air India's massive order for commercial aircraft and the expansion plans of emerging carriers like Akasa Air, demonstrating the robust growth trajectory of commercial aviation in India.

Military Aviation Segment in India Aviation Market

The military aviation segment is experiencing rapid growth driven by India's ambitious defense modernization programs and increased defense spending. The segment is witnessing significant expansion through various procurement initiatives, including multi-role combat aircraft types, transport aircraft, and military helicopters. The Indian Air Force's plans to deploy 242 fixed-wing aircraft between 2024-2029, along with the procurement of advanced helicopters like Apache and Chinook, are major growth drivers. The government's focus on indigenous production through programs like the Tejas Light Combat Aircraft and partnerships with international manufacturers is further accelerating this segment's growth. The emphasis on self-reliance in defense manufacturing and the increasing defense budget allocation are creating substantial opportunities for market expansion.

Remaining Segments in Aircraft Type

The general aviation segment, while smaller in market share, plays a crucial role in India's aviation ecosystem. This segment encompasses business jets, training aircraft, and private aviation services, catering to corporate travel needs and pilot training requirements. The segment is benefiting from the increasing number of high-net-worth individuals in India and the growing demand for private aviation services. The government's initiatives to promote regional connectivity and the establishment of new flying training organizations are providing additional support to this segment's development. The expansion of business aviation services and increasing demand for pilot training are creating new opportunities in this segment.