Ammunition Market Size & Share Analysis - Growth Trends and Forecast (2026 - 2031)

Global Ammunition Market Trends and Insights

Intensified NATO Stockpile Replenishment Post-Ukraine War

European nations transferred approximately EUR 800 million (USD 938.59 million) in shells to Kyiv, highlighting inadequate peacetime production rates. Rheinmetall’s decision to expand annual output from 70,000 to 700,000 rounds by 2024 illustrates the emergency scaling underway.^{[1]Rheinmetall Press Office, “Artillery Ammunition Capacity Expansion in Germany,” Rheinmetall, rheinmetall.com} Multi-year contracts lock in capacity, moving the ammunition market away from spot buying and toward strategic stockpiling. Budget reallocations now favor ammunition over new platforms because advanced weapons deliver little value without a sustained supply of ammo. This pivot establishes a dependable revenue base for producers that can quickly ramp up production of explosives, fuzes, and energetic materials.

Increased Defense Spending and Modernization Driving Market Growth

Global defense outlays reached record highs in 2024, and ammunition procurement is claiming a larger share due to aging Cold War stocks and overlapping replacement cycles with platform upgrades. Japan’s 2024 budget increased allocations for munitions and stockpiles, while India approved emergency buys of 155 mm ammunition to address readiness requirements. Modernization includes the migration to polymer-cased designs in select programs, which reduces the logistical burden and prompts retooling of lines independent of battlefield consumption. Gulf buyers are embedding offsets that co-fund domestic ammunition plants with Western OEMs in exchange for long-term volume commitments that lock in demand past 2030. These patterns reinforce a durable spending base for the ammunition market across both advanced and emerging defense economies.

Rising Civilian Concealed-Carry Adoption Driving Ammunition Demand

The US commercial channel remains a meaningful stabilizer for small-caliber lines as constitutional carry laws expand the base of active handgun owners who purchase practice and defensive loads. Industry data and retail indicators indicate sustained handgun-caliber demand above pre-pandemic baselines, with the 9 mm caliber leading store-level sales. Olin’s Winchester business reported continued year-over-year growth in commercial small-arms revenue in 2024, driven by repeat purchasing behavior from new and returning owners.^{[2]Olin Corporation, “Winchester Commercial Performance 2024,” Olin Corporation, olin.com} The geographic mix skews towards large states that have adopted permitless concealed carry frameworks, which lower the friction costs of ownership and range training. This backdrop supports continued volume in the ammunition market even as public-safety budgets face cycles.

Growing Demand for Modern Artillery Propellant Systems

Modular artillery charges and insensitive-munitions-compliant propellants are replacing legacy single-base powders to improve safety, barrel life, and range control. NATO buyers have placed large orders for modular charge systems that enable velocity tailoring without changing projectiles, helping gunners deliver first-round effects at long ranges. Suppliers like Nammo AS have ramped up deliveries since 2023 to meet NATO needs as armies standardize on IM-compliant solutions for storage and transport safety.^{[3]Nammo, “Modular Artillery Charges and Deliveries,” Nammo, nammo.com} Select defense research bodies report reduced thermal stress and improved hit probabilities with new propellant architectures, adding a performance case to the safety and logistics benefits. These upgrades enhance average selling prices and complexity in the artillery value chain of the ammunition market.

DoD and MoD Budget Re-Prioritization Toward Uncrewed Systems

US budget submissions for FY2025 expand funding for autonomous systems and loitering munitions under initiatives like Replicator, while trimming select lines in small-arms procurement.^{[4]U.S. Department of Defense, “Replicator Initiative and FY2025 Budget,” U.S. Department of Defense, defense.gov} The stated doctrine emphasizes distributed, attributable effects against peer adversaries, which tilts some resources away from legacy volumes and toward precision and autonomy. European ministries mirror this emphasis, with France’s military programming law lifting unmanned-systems outlays while holding conventional ammunition near flat in real terms. The effect is not demand destruction, but a re-weighting within munitions categories that can cap growth in mature small-caliber lines. Over time, this can nudge mix from bulk ball ammunition toward precision kits and drone-delivered effects.

Soaring Nitrocellulose Prices Due to Cotton Supply Shocks

The global cotton harvest stress in 2023 tightened linter supply and raised nitrocellulose prices through mid-2024, pressuring propellant costs for ammunition manufacturers. Firms hedge raw materials, but extended price elevation eroded those buffers and forced pass-throughs or margin compression in the near term. Public disclosures by leading contractors in 2024 noted headwinds from raw-material inflation tied to propellant inputs. Research into alternative chemistries continues, yet defense qualification cycles mean that nitrocellulose remains the standard for the medium term and is a near-term margin drag across the ammunition market’s small and medium-caliber segments. 

Segment Analysis

By Caliber: Small Caliber Commands Volume, Yet All Sizes Surge

Small caliber held 43.00% of the category in 2025 and is projected to grow at a 6.25% CAGR through 2031, reflecting sustained training rhythms, replacement cycles, and a durable US commercial base. This performance aligns with the role of rifle, pistol, and light machine gun ammunition in day-to-day readiness, where training quotas consume large quantities of ammunition, even in peacetime. Heavy replenishment cycles following 2022–2024 transfers to Ukraine add institutional demand for NATO specs. Civilian demand in the US remains resilient as constitutional carry expands the active shooter base that purchases defensive and practice ammunition at steady intervals. These factors keep small-caliber lines as volume anchors for the ammunition market.

Medium-caliber rounds support infantry fighting vehicles and close-in weapon systems, benefiting from fleet modernization and platform upgrades. As armies recapitalize tracked and wheeled formations, demand for autocannon munitions expands on a multi-year basis. Large-caliber rounds, including 105 mm tank, 155 mm artillery, and naval gun ammunition, contribute a smaller unit count but command premium pricing, particularly for guided projectiles and course-corrected fuzes used in urban settings. Standardization efforts under NATO and UN technical guidelines support interoperability and reduce certification barriers for cross-border supply. This wide spectrum sustains a balanced growth profile across calibers in the ammunition market as modernization blends with replenishment. 

Note: Segment shares of all individual segments available upon report purchase

By Product: Bullets and Cartridges Dominate, Yet Artillery Shells See Steepest Growth Acceleration

Bullets and cartridges accounted for 60.76% of the category in 2025 and are set to expand at a 6.13% CAGR through 2031, underpinned by continuous training usage and stock rotation every 10–15 years. This segment encompasses military, law enforcement, and civilian channels, benefiting from extensive manufacturing footprints and standardized specifications. A consistent replacement cycle establishes a demand floor that is independent of operational surges, thereby stabilizing planning for integrated players in the ammunition market. Premium loads for competition and hunting offer mixed benefits in the commercial channel, which lift average selling prices.

Artillery shells and mortars show the sharpest procurement acceleration as NATO programs prioritize 155 mm stockpiles and guidance kits. Multi-year European frameworks and national orders anchor production ramps at plants in Germany, Norway, and Finland that supply NATO-standard howitzers. Retrofit kits, such as precision guidance fuzes, offer a middle path for users who seek precision without requiring complete projectile replacement. Aerial bombs and grenades remain in smaller niches defined by mission profiles but benefit from programmable fuze technology for standoff and urban applications. These dynamics elevate the content per round and capital intensity for suppliers serving artillery and specialty products within the ammunition industry.

By Guidance: Unguided Munitions Retain Share, Yet Precision Demand Reshapes Margins

Unguided ammunition held 92.1% of the ammunition market share in 2025 and is forecast to grow at a 5.99% CAGR to 2031, a pace that trails the overall average as procurement mixes shift toward precision effects. The core use cases of suppressive fire, area denial, and harassment remain volume-heavy and cost-sensitive, which keeps unguided rounds central to operations. However, precision systems that incorporate GPS or course correction are advancing faster on a percentage basis, as users target lower collateral damage and increased logistics efficiency. This mix change reallocates spending toward higher-value components, such as guidance kits and fuzes. The long-run baseline for unguided volumes remains firm because electronic-warfare conditions can degrade GPS and favor legacy fire missions.

Guided munitions are projected to experience a significant growth rate as armies expand precision artillery, proximity fuzes, and laser- or GPS-aided effects. Programs like precision guidance kits, which retrofit existing 155 mm shells, offer a cost-effective path to improved accuracy for a broad installed base. Procurement choices balance the higher unit cost of full-up guided rounds against the need for inventory reach and mission requirements. In parallel, affordable glide and course-correction kits are reshaping minimum viable precision thresholds for mass fire support. This evolution raises average selling prices and R&D intensity across the ammunition industry.

By End-User: Military Dominance Persists, Yet Civilian Segment Offers Margin Richness

The military end-user accounted for 82.73% of the ammunition market share in 2025 and is projected to grow at a rate of 6.22% through 2031, based on multi-year contracts that support stockpile rebuilding and training continuity. Defense buyers have shifted to long-dated framework agreements with option volumes that improve visibility for suppliers and justify capital expansion. The approach reduces volatility and aligns with strategic stock objectives inside NATO and allied partners. Procurement in this segment also encompasses transition to lead-free training loads in select markets, shaping product roadmaps for primes and their subsidiaries.

Law enforcement retains a stable base linked to training and qualification routines, while civil sports add mixed benefits due to premium hunting and match-grade loads. The commercial channel in North America remains resilient, as concealed-carry adoption sustains handgun ammunition purchases, and retailers report steady sales of 9 mm and similar calibers. Lead-free duty and training ammunition adoption is gaining traction as state requirements evolve and as range operators prioritize compliance. These elements position the civilian channel as a marginal contributor even if its share of the overall ammunition market is smaller than that of the military.

Note: Segment shares of all individual segments available upon report purchase

By Platform: Land Systems Command Share, Yet Naval and Airborne Segments Upgrade Faster

Land platforms represented 67.93% in 2025 and are set to grow at a 6.16% CAGR through 2031, reflecting the centrality of ground forces across conflict types. Infantry small arms, vehicle cannons, and towed or self-propelled artillery together drive substantial round counts for daily training and operations. Mechanization programs in several countries are expanding formations equipped with medium-caliber autocannons, which support a multi-year demand for 25-40 mm ammunition. These trends support a durable installed base for integrated primes and their partners, who are focused on land-systems consumption in the ammunition market.

Naval demand is transitioning in part to guided munitions for land attack and anti-ship roles. In contrast, airborne demand carries a higher value per munition due to the complexity of guidance and fuze systems. The rise of uncrewed aerial systems introduces new categories of expendable munitions that intersect the value chains of ammunition and robotics, reshaping how buyers classify and budget for effects delivered from air platforms. Platform diversification and the spread of uncrewed systems broaden the addressable scope of the ammunition industry beyond traditional definitions while keeping ground formations as the volume core.

Geography Analysis

North America held 47.44% of the market in 2025, primarily driven by the US's role as the most prominent military procurer and a leading civilian consumer in the ammunition market. The region's outlook indicates a moderate 4.80% CAGR to 2031, driven by budget rebalancing toward autonomous systems and a commercial base that has normalized from pandemic peaks, while remaining above pre-2020 levels for handgun calibers. The US budget documents reveal a steady munitions account that prioritizes precision long-range fires for Indo-Pacific scenarios, with a partial offset from reduced expenditures on small arms. Canada's handgun-sale freeze weighed on commercial volumes in 2024, prompting producers to rely more heavily on defense and law enforcement channels. Lead-free mandates and range-compliance investments are reshaping plant footprints as major OEMs retrofit lines for copper-core projectiles and modern primers.

Europe is the fastest-growing regional opportunity, with a 9.48% CAGR through 2031, as members rebuild their sovereign stockpiles and restore industrial depth after decades of consolidation. Germany's ramp in 155 mm capacity and Poland's co-funded facilities with European primes underscore the scale of artillery-focused expansion. The UK's current defense review includes multi-year munitions funding for 155 mm, 40 mm, and small-arms needs, reversing a long-standing peacetime decline in sustained procurement.^{[5]UK Ministry of Defence, “Strategic Defence Review and Munitions Funding,” UK Ministry of Defence, gov.uk} Baltic and Eastern European members utilize collective tenders to consolidate orders for small-caliber and artillery rounds, thereby shortening lead times and reducing unit costs. Supplier diversification in France and Italy, as well as the redirection of Russian production toward domestic consumption, creates market space for European and Asian suppliers across non-NATO demand. These shifts concentrate Europe's role as the growth engine of the ammunition market.

The Asia-Pacific region accounts for a sizable share and exhibits a heterogeneous profile, anchored by key countries such as India, South Korea, Japan, and Australia. India authorized emergency munitions procurements in 2024 and advanced its self-reliance targets, aiming to direct a majority of ammunition contracts to domestic sources by the end of the decade. South Korea's export-linked artillery programs expand its ammunition footprint across Europe, while Japan boosts munitions allocations and co-funds domestic capacity to reduce its reliance on imports. Australia's defense review prioritized sovereign ammunition production with multi-year funding slated for 155 mm, small-caliber, and naval gun lines. These national initiatives add a strong multi-year layer of demand and capacity, lifting the regional contribution to the global ammunition market.