Africa Two-Wheeler Market Size & Share Analysis - Growth Trends and Forecast (2026 - 2031)

Segment Analysis

By Vehicle Type: Motorcycles Anchor Commercial Demand

Motorcycles captured 73.18% of the African two-wheeler market share in 2025 as their cargo capacity and ruggedness align with delivery and taxi operations. Commercial riders average more than 100 km daily, reinforcing replacement demand cycles every 28-30 months. Scooters trail but register an 8.12% CAGR to 2031, propelled by urban riders valuing automatic transmissions and nimble parking. Women and first-time riders are drawn to scooters as safety features, such as leg shields, broaden their appeal. Manufacturers tailor their marketing around lifestyle imagery while maintaining price parity with entry-level motorcycle tiers.

In rural zones, motorcycles dominate because dirt-road resilience outweighs scooter ease of use. Yet, growing gig-economy income prospects in tier-2 cities shift incremental volume toward scooters, widening OEM segment targeting. Component sharing across both formats permits supply-chain efficiencies that safeguard gross margins.

By Propulsion: ICE Still Rules but Electric Gains Momentum

Internal combustion engines account for 89.21% of the African two-wheeler market size in 2025, aided by ubiquitous fueling networks and mechanic familiarity. Electric motorcycles, however, are projected to post a 9.21% CAGR amid donor-financed pilot fleets and breakthroughs in battery swapping. Encouraged by studies showing lower total costs per kilometer, couriers are making the switch, even if it means facing higher upfront prices. In Ethiopia, municipal bans on gasoline motorcycles within city limits are not just pushing for a quicker adoption of electric vehicles but also hinting at favorable regulatory changes for the broader region.

Infrastructure development is focusing on containerized swap stations, enabling quick turnarounds and alleviating peak loads on national grids. Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEMs) are not just selling vehicles but bundling them with swap subscriptions, creating a steady revenue stream and easing concerns about range. Meanwhile, platforms reliant on Internal Combustion Engines (ICE) are upgrading with fuel-injection systems and ensuring compatibility with alternative fuel blends to maintain their presence in areas where charging infrastructure remains limited.

By Engine Capacity: Entry-Level 110 cc Leads Volume

Engine classes up to 110 cc account for 28.16% of the 2025 volume, as cash-flow-constrained customers prioritize fuel economy. Electric classes rated 1.1–3.0 kW notch a 7.52% CAGR, mirroring cost-down battery packs and rising donor grants. Mid-range 111–150 cc engines serve peri-urban couriers needing higher torque for hilly routes, reinforcing their relevance despite electrification narratives.

OBD-II mandates and onboard telematics rollouts drive incremental cost but also enable preventive maintenance, appealing to fleet managers. Premium 250 cc-plus models remain niche, yet localized production of adventure bikes hints at future growth in the leisure segment once disposable incomes further strengthen.

By Price Band: Sub-USD 1,000 Dominance, Mid-Range Surge

Units priced up to USD 1,000 form 36.62% of the African two-wheeler market size in 2025, underscoring the central role of affordability. Still, the USD 1,501–2,000 band grows fastest at a 7.28% CAGR as micro-leases spread ownership over two- to three-year horizons. Duty rebates allow assemblers to upgrade features—LED lamps, disc brakes—without breaching psychological price ceilings.

Currency fluctuations drive the periodic reclassification of models between bands, complicating year-on-year comparisons. OEMs hedge by stocking SKD kits, configuring to rapidly meet adjacent price points, trimming inventory risk.

Note: Segment shares of all individual segments available upon report purchase

By End User: B2C Core Meets B2B Upside

B2C applications are expected to hold a 65.61% share in 2025, driven by personal mobility aspirations and the purchasing power of millennials. Yet, B2B delivery and logistics growth climbs at an 8.72% CAGR through 2031, making fleet procurement a strategic battleground. Platforms negotiate volume discounts and service-level agreements, promoting standardized models simplifying parts stocking.

Corporate social responsibility programs in healthcare and education also drive institutional fleet orders, albeit at lower margins. OEMs cultivate after-sales contracts that guarantee uptime, embedding revenue streams beyond the initial sale.

By Sales Channel: Offline Remains King, Online Accelerates

Offline dealerships accounted for 91.87% of sales in 2025, as test rides and service reassurance remain indispensable for first-time buyers. Online channels, currently at 8.13% today, are expected to expand at an 8.28% CAGR, driven by fintech-enabled credit scoring and doorstep delivery. Hybrid “click-and-collect” models enable consumers to reserve online and finalize their purchase in-store, bridging trust gaps. Mobile USSD codes, used in Spiro’s Airtel partnership, broaden reach among feature-phone users, further democratizing digital sales.

Geography Analysis

Nigeria remained the cornerstone of the African two-wheeler market, accounting for 42.61% of the volume in 2025. Across Lagos, Kano, and Port Harcourt, a significant number of okada riders are active. Even with state-level bans limiting passenger transport in certain areas, a blend of informal logistics and rural connectivity sustains a robust demand. CKD plants, operated by Bajaj, Honda, and various Chinese brands, not only reduce lead times but also provide a buffer against fluctuations in the naira. However, severe depreciation has tightened the grip on consumer purchasing power. While fintech leasing offers some relief, a fragmented regulatory landscape compels OEMs to customize their compliance and advocacy strategies on a state-by-state basis.

South Africa, while smaller in unit terms, is forecast to deliver the fastest major-market growth at an 8.86% CAGR to 2031. E-commerce revenue experienced significant growth recently. GreenCape anticipates a substantial increase in electric two-wheeler sales in the coming years. A relatively high ratio of paved roads and a stable currency support the adoption of premium motorcycles and scooters. However, challenges such as power outages and theft risks are driving up operating costs. Fleet operators are increasingly adopting private charging and security systems to maintain operational efficiency.

Kenya is establishing itself as a key region for testing electrification in East Africa. The removal of VAT on e-bikes and the establishment of numerous swap-network stations allow riders to travel urban routes without concerns about range. The large number of registered boda-boda riders ensures consistent demand for entry-level motorcycles. Additionally, worsening traffic congestion in Nairobi is encouraging commuters to shift towards scooters and electric vehicles.

North Africa exhibits varying trends. Egypt’s rural areas favor affordable motorcycles, while urban congestion in Cairo is boosting the popularity of scooters. Morocco is leveraging its automotive industry to develop two-wheeler assembly for export, with a focus on increasing the content of electric vehicles. Other African markets, including Tanzania, Uganda, Ghana, Rwanda, and Ethiopia, are experiencing strong growth, supported by donor-funded initiatives and emerging battery swap infrastructures. Ethiopia’s restrictions on internal combustion engines are driving consumers directly toward electric models, despite limited charging infrastructure.