Uzbekistan Power Market Size & Share Analysis - Growth Trends And Forecast (2025 - 2030)

Uzbekistan Power Market Trends and Insights

Government Renewable-Energy Targets & Competitive Auctions

Presidential Decree 60 of January 2024 created a feed-in premium and mandated 40% renewable capacity by decade-end, prompting USD 4.5 billion in signed agreements within 12 months.^{[3]Office of the President, “Presidential Decree 60 on Accelerating the Development of Renewable Energy,” president.uz} The auction design, a reverse bid with 25-year sovereign-backed PPAs, drove Masdar’s 1.5 GW Samarkand solar tariff to USD 0.0165 per kWh, 40% beneath marginal gas-fired costs. ACWA Power’s parallel 1.5 GW wind tranche in Bukhara and Navoi deepened variable output, nudging the grid operator toward storage pilots still unfunded. Absence of a renewable-certificate market limits corporate off-takers, yet bids for the 2025 round from Total Eren and SkyPower suggest the pipeline remains oversubscribed.^{[4]Total Eren, “Total Eren Selected to Develop 500 MW Solar Project in Uzbekistan,” total-eren.com}

Growing Electricity Demand from Population & Industrial Growth

Population climbed to 36.6 million in 2024, and GDP per capita rose 22% in real terms, pushing appliance ownership and air-conditioning penetration upward in urban zones. Industrial electricity use jumped 31% from 2020 to 2024, led by textile mills that quintupled consumption in the Fergana Valley. Mining in Navoi and Zarafshan now grabs 18% of the industrial load, operating around the clock and intensifying baseload requirements. The 2024-2026 Industrial Policy Framework anticipates 3.5 GW of captive capacity, though just 40% is financed. Subsidized tariffs averaging USD 0.03 per kWh dampen efficiency investments, a hurdle the Tashkent smart-meter pilot intends to overcome by 2026.

International Financing to Modernize Gas-Fired Fleet

The World Bank’s USD 500 million loan and Asian Development Bank’s USD 300 million concessional line are channeling capital toward grid and turbine overhauls that lift efficiency while trimming gas burn. Siemens Energy’s EUR 280 million SGT-800 package at Syrdarya aims to raise cycle efficiency to 58% and cut fuel use by 1.2 billion m³ per year. GE Vernova and Mitsubishi Heavy Industries pursue similar upgrades contingent on affordable gas imports from Turkmenistan. Domestic production slipped 6% in 2024, exposing plants to spot imports priced 30% above local wellhead levels.

High Solar-/Wind-Resource Potential Lowering LCOE

Bukhara and Navoi receive 2,800-3,100 kWh/m² annually, enabling bifacial modules to post 28% capacity factors without trackers. Panel prices fell 22% year-on-year to USD 0.11 per W in Q3 2024, trimming payback windows to 6-7 years. Wind speeds in Zarafshan average 7.5-8.2 m/s at 100 m hub height, supporting 35-38% capacity factors for modern turbines. Total Eren’s 500 MW hybrid plant couples 100 MWh of storage to smooth output and lower balancing fees by 18%.

Aging Grid Infrastructure & Technical Losses

Transmission and distribution losses averaged 15–20% in 2024, double peer benchmarks, due to corroded aluminum conductors and obsolete 110 kV lines. Sixty-two percent of the 38,000 km national network predates 1995 and lacks digital fault detection. Voltage sags above 10% in Fergana Valley force factories to buy private capacitor banks, adding USD 50–80 per kW to capex. The 2024-2028 Grid Modernization Plan earmarks USD 1.2 billion to upgrade 240 substations, yet procurement delays have pushed deployment to late 2025.

Exposure to Natural-Gas Price Volatility

Domestic output fell to 48 billion m³ in 2024 while imports from Russia cost USD 250 per 1,000 m³, compressing margins on gas-fired plants and triggering a 12% industrial tariff hike. Negotiations with Turkmenistan for 5 billion m³ annually stalled over pricing, anchoring fuel risk to geopolitics. Retrofitting projects priced on USD 200 gas now face potential overruns that could delay commissioning and dampen the Uzbekistan power market’s near-term investment cycle.

Segment Analysis

By Power Source: Renewables Surge Reshapes Dispatch Merit Order

Installed renewables expanded at a 20.3% CAGR between 2024 and 2030, the fastest pace across fuel groups, lifting their contribution to 40% of projected capacity and compressing gas dispatch during daylight hours. The Uzbekistan power market size for renewables is set to overtake coal and approach gas volumes by 2028. Thermal assets, still holding 74.6% of installed capacity in 2024, confront aging turbines and rising imported fuel costs that erode their Uzbekistan power market share during peak solar generation.^{[5]Asian Development Bank, “Uzbekistan: Power Sector Development Project,” adb.org} Hydropower’s 2.1 GW footprint suffers seasonal curtailment, while Rosatom’s 2.4 GW nuclear plant plus a 330 MW SMR will bolster nighttime baseload after 2030.

A second-order shift lies in hybrid solar-wind-storage arrays such as Total Eren’s 500 MW Karakalpakstan complex, which achieves a 65% capacity factor and displaces diesel peakers in remote zones. Coal’s lone 600 MW Angren unit is slated for retirement by 2028 under the decarbonization roadmap, freeing transmission bandwidth for variable renewables. Consequently, the Uzbekistan power market is pivoting toward a flatter merit order that rewards flexibility services such as battery storage and demand response.

Note: Segment shares of all individual segments available upon report purchase

By End User: Commercial & Industrial Segment Outpaces Utilities

Utilities absorbed 72.5% of electricity in 2024, yet commercial and industrial buyers are growing 2.3 percentage points faster, embodying the Uzbekistan power market’s structural shift toward value-added exports. Textile mills in the Fergana Valley and Andijan alone quintupled their load between 2020 and 2024, while mining sites in Navoi and Zarafshan now represent 18% of industrial demand. The Uzbekistan power market size dedicated to C&I could jump once open-access rules allow direct purchases from renewable developers; lobbying efforts focus on achieving this by 2026.

Residential consumption averages 1,800 kWh per capita, 40% lower than in Kazakhstan, implying latent upside once income growth and tariff reform stimulate appliance penetration. The smart-meter pilot in Tashkent is expected to migrate 500,000 households to cost-reflective pricing by 2026, trimming peak load and freeing headroom for industrial expansion. Captive solar-plus-storage solutions pitched by SkyPower Global and Helios Energy are poised to accelerate once legal clarity on wheeling charges emerges.

Note: Segment shares of all individual segments available upon report purchase

Geography Analysis

Tashkent and the Fergana Valley collectively consume 52% of national electricity yet occupy just 38% of the land area, underscoring the spatial mismatch between supply and load centers. Tashkent’s data centers and offices generate 28% of total demand and strain 220 kV feeders past design capacity during summer heat. Fergana Valley’s textile clusters, spread across Fergana, Andijan, and Namangan, face chronic voltage drops due to antiquated substations.

Samarkand and Bukhara, once agricultural strongholds, are morphing into renewable hubs thanks to Masdar’s 1.5 GW solar buildout and ACWA Power’s 1.5 GW wind tranche that will export 4.2 TWh annually by 2027. Karakalpakstan’s sparse load obliges 500 kV line upgrades so that Total Eren’s hybrid complex can flow power to Tashkent. Water scarcity in the Aral Sea basin has already forced a 12% hydro curtailment during summer 2024, illustrating the climate-sensitivity of dispatch.

Regional trading corridors amplify system resilience. CASA-1000 will enable 1,000 MW of bidirectional trade by 2027, and talks with Kazakhstan aim to unlock Russia’s Unified Energy System for winter imports and summer exports, potentially trimming 8-10% off reserve-margin needs. Uzbekistan exported 1.2 TWh to Afghanistan in 2024, earning USD 72 million, though ongoing payments risk constrains expansion.