Kazakhstan Renewable Energy Market Size & Share Analysis - Growth Trends And Forecast (2025 - 2030)

Kazakhstan Renewable Energy Market Trends and Insights

Large-scale Foreign Direct Investment Transforms Market Dynamics

Substantial capital inflows have significantly shifted Kazakhstan’s renewable energy trajectory. Masdar’s 1 GW wind project in Jambyl, paired with a 600 MWh battery system, stands as Central Asia’s largest single renewable energy commitment.^{[1]Enerdata, “Kazakhstan Electricity Market Overview,” enerdata.net} Simultaneously, Chinese developers have pledged 2.6 GW of additional wind and solar projects through agreements with Samruk-Energy, clustering new capacity around Zhambyl and Karaganda. These deals accelerate technology transfer, anchor regional supply chains, and signal that sovereign wealth capital views renewables as strategic rather than speculative. Shared transmission corridors lower interconnection costs, while local manufacturing accords meet rising content requirements and reduce currency-exchange exposure for foreign partners.

Auction Reforms Drive Storage Integration and Hybrid Development

Amended 2025 auction rules require storage capacity equal to 30% of contracted renewable output and a minimum two-hour dispatch duration. The framework forces developers to internalize the costs of intermittency, stimulating demand for battery energy storage systems and hybrid plants that co-locate wind, solar, and storage. Early pilots in the Almaty and Shymkent industrial zones have shown reduced curtailment and improved peak-shaving performance. Grid operator KEGOC plans EUR 6 million in efficiency upgrades that complement the storage rule. The policy aligns economic incentives with reliability outcomes, making storage a mainstream cost component rather than an optional add-on.

National Infrastructure Plan Establishes Clear Renewable Trajectory

The 2024-2029 National Infrastructure Plan outlines a target of 12.5% renewable energy share by 2029, up from 5.92% in 2023. The roadmap requires 150,000 additional jobs and targets South Kazakhstan and Zhambyl for priority execution, ensuring grid-ready corridors and straightforward land acquisition. Public-private consortia, including TotalEnergies, ACWA Power, and local partners, streamline permitting and financing. The integration of renewables into broader industrial modernization policies elevates clean power from an environmental objective to a core economic infrastructure, shielding the program from election-cycle policy swings.

Fossil-Fuel Subsidy Phase-out Encourages Tariff Reform

Coal subsidies accounted for 6% of GDP in 2021, distorting power prices and extending the payback periods of renewable projects. A progressive rollback of subsidies, combined with incentive-based tariffs, now narrows the price gap between renewables and coal. Urban centers such as Almaty and Nur-Sultan are most affected by higher retail rates and carbon-constrained export markets. Phased implementation protects social welfare, yet forward certainty improves bankability for renewable developers and lowers their cost of capital.

Ageing Transmission Grid Constrains Integration

More than 66% of Kazakhstan’s transmission assets were classed as deteriorated in 2023.^{[2]Columbia University Center on Global Energy Policy, “Modernizing Kazakhstan’s Grid,” columbia.edu} Grid segmentation into three islands prevents surplus southern solar from easing northern shortages, resulting in curtailment and lost revenue. KEGOC’s multi-year reinforcement plan will not fully close the deficit before 2027. East Kazakhstan and Pavlodar, with high industrial load, suffer most, forcing developers to relocate projects or add costly private lines.

Coal-Subsidised Tariffs Undermine Project Economics

Below-market electricity prices compress renewable margins. Although coal subsidies are scheduled for gradual removal, political resistance in northern regions delays reforms and prolongs policy risk for investors.^{[3]Research Institute for Sustainability, “Renewable Resource Potential in Kazakhstan,” research-institute-for-sustainability.de} Independent power producers face payback horizons that exceed loan tenors unless incentive tariffs materialize quickly. Distributed solar developers are most exposed because residential consumers benchmark their savings against static grid rates.

Segment Analysis

By Technology: Hydro Dominance Faces Bioenergy Disruption

Hydropower represented 51.6% of renewable capacity in 2024, led by Bukhtarma’s 675 MW and Shardara’s 126 MW dams, which provide a seasonally aligned baseload. Continued uprating of turbines added nearly 28 MW of net capacity between 2024 and 2025, illustrating a pivot toward efficiency gains rather than greenfield expansion, given the limited availability of untapped basins. The Kazakhstan renewable energy market size for hydro is forecast to increase modestly through 2030, as small run-of-river facilities come online; however, its share will decline as faster-growing segments scale. Bioenergy’s negligible 2024 base belies its explosive 65.7% CAGR potential: a Turkish-backed biogas plant announced in March 2025 will process 300,000 tons of manure and agricultural waste annually in Turkestan, while KazMunayGas is piloting agricultural-residue-derived sustainable aviation fuel that blends with Jet A-1 at its Pavlodar refinery. Wind captured 23% in 2024 and enjoys the largest absolute addition pipeline, with Masdar’s 1 GW flagship and ACWA Power’s 1 GW Zhetysu project already secured under 25-year PPAs. Solar, sitting at 20%, has a steady queue of 300-500 MW annual builds, such as China Energy Engineering’s 300 MW Turkestan PV due in 2026 

Pumped-storage hydro remains a long-cycle dream: feasibility studies for 800 MW of reversible units in the Irtysh-Zaisan basin received lukewarm lender feedback because of 12-year payback projections. Still, run-of-river micro-plants totaling 20.7 MW cleared the June 2024 auction, exploiting simplified permits that bypass reservoir-related environmental objections. The Kazakhstan renewable energy market share for bioenergy is expected to surpass 5% by 2030, provided all announced anaerobic digestion and biomass gasification projects are realized. Geothermal and tidal energy outlooks remain negligible due to the country’s landlocked geography and absence of high-enthalpy resources, although district-heating pilots in East Kazakhstan are exploring shallow geothermal loops for school buildings.

Note: Segment shares of all individual segments available upon report purchase

By End-User: Utilities Dominate, Residential Awakens

Utilities purchased 92.6% of renewable electrons in 2024 under the single-buyer Financial Settlement Center model that staples 20-year PPAs to sovereign backing. Independent power producers prefer the framework because it minimizes merchant risk and qualifies for export-credit guarantees. Commercial and industrial demand is the fastest-growing subsegment by absolute megawatt additions. A hyperscale data center in Zhetysu is rolling out a 110 MW solar-plus-storage system that co-locates generation with its server farm, beating grid tariffs by 18% on a levelized basis. Oil major KazMunayGas is building a 77 MW wind and 50 MW solar hybrid plant in Mangystau to power extraction pumps, reinforcing its corporate decarbonization commitments and reducing carbon-price exposure under future EU CBAM extensions. The Kazakhstan renewable energy market size for self-generation by corporates could hit 2 GW by 2030 once wheeling rules permit virtual PPAs, although regulators have yet to finalize tariff methodologies.

Residential capacity is currently small, yet it is projected to grow at a 16.7% CAGR as rooftop economics improve in tandem with the removal of subsidies and concessional EBRD loans. The Kazakhstan renewable energy market share for utilities is expected to taper to roughly 88% by 2030, as households and firms increase their participation. Electric-vehicle registrations rose 150% in 2024 to 7,500 units, introducing a new nighttime load that rooftop PV and behind-the-meter batteries can arbitrage. Still, the absence of smart metering and demand-response protocols limits dynamic-pricing benefits that normally complement distributed generation. Widespread adoption of rooftop solar hinges on local banks gaining confidence in homeowner repayment capacity, a hurdle that may soften as EBRD credit guarantees expand beyond current pilots.

Note: Segment shares of all individual segments available upon report purchase

Geography Analysis

The southern and western provinces host the bulk of newbuilds because they combine wind speeds of 7–9 m/s with solar irradiation above 1,600 kWh/m²/year. Zhambyl alone secured more than 3 GW of announced capacity, including TotalEnergies' USD 1.4 billion Mirny wind farm, China Power's 1 GW cluster, and SANY's manufacturing-linked project. Zhetysu follows as a storage hub, after ACWA Power's 1 GW plant incorporated a 30% battery slice in line with auction rules, and a hyperscale data center setup integrates 20 MW of lithium-ion storage. Mangystau anchors Hyrasia One's USD 50 billion green-hydrogen scheme, which will utilize 40 GW of wind and solar energy to export 2 million tons of H2 annually by 2032, positioning the province as a future hydrogen corridor.

Northern territories, such as Akmola and Pavlodar, offer inferior irradiation; however, the Asian Development Bank's backing for China Power's 220 MW wind portfolio indicates a growing appetite to spread resource risk and tap grid headroom that is currently unused by hydro assets in that region.^{[4]Asian Development Bank, “Kazakhstan: Renewable Energy Sector Assessment,” adb.org} Eastern Kazakhstan emphasizes run-of-river micro projects to harness mountain rivers, although protracted environmental hearings delay bankability assessments. The National Infrastructure Plan allocates 60% of the additional capacity to Zhambyl, Zhetysu, Turkestan, and Mangystau, raising concerns about regional inequality in electricity access and reinforcing the need for cross-provincial transmission upgrades to relay surplus power to Almaty and Astana load centers.. Curtailment episodes that shaved 20% off wind farm revenue in 2024 make capacity-evacuation lines and synchronous condensers urgent budget items for KEGOC.