United States Dairy Desserts Market Size and Share

United States Dairy Desserts Market (2025 - 2030)
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United States Dairy Desserts Market Analysis by Mordor Intelligence

The United States dairy desserts market was valued at USD 21.85 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach USD 24.99 billion by 2030, registering a CAGR of 2.72%. The market is anticipated to grow steadily over the forecast period, although the performance of individual segments reveals significant variations. Frozen desserts are emerging as a standout category, experiencing much faster growth compared to traditional ice cream, driven by evolving consumer preferences and innovation in product offerings. On-trade channels, which were previously impacted, are now showing a robust recovery, reflecting a resurgence in consumer dining-out habits. Additionally, premium flavors such as nut-and-caramel combinations are resonating strongly with consumers, contributing to their increasing popularity. Unilever's strategic introduction of artificial intelligence (AI)-enabled freezers underscores the transformative potential of advanced distribution technologies in enhancing customer engagement, boosting sales, and driving overall market growth. The rising consumer demand for products that cater to specific dietary needs, such as high-protein, lactose-free, and glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1)-friendly options, is helping to counterbalance the stagnation observed in traditional product lines. Moreover, cold-storage grants provided by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) are playing a pivotal role in reducing spoilage and ensuring efficient distribution, thereby improving product availability across diverse regions.

Key Report Takeaways

  • By product type, ice cream held 80.11% of United States dairy desserts market share in 2024, while frozen desserts are advancing at a 4.01% CAGR through 2030. 
  • By packaging, cups and tubs commanded 40.21% of the United States dairy desserts market size in 2024 and are projected to grow at 3.99% through 2030.
  • By flavor, vanilla led with 43.43% revenue share in 2024; nuts and caramel are expected to register the fastest 4.34% CAGR to 2030.
  • By distribution channel, off-trade captured 81.40% volume in 2024; on-trade is recovering at a 3.81% CAGR through 2030.

Segment Analysis

By Product Type: Frozen Desserts Outpace Ice Cream

Mochi ice cream, Greek yogurt bars, and gelato are transforming the frozen desserts market, which is forecasted to grow at an annual rate of 4.01% through 2030. This growth rate is nearly double the market's baseline growth of 2.72%, indicating a significant shift in consumer preferences. Ice cream, while maintaining a commanding 80.11% market share in 2024, is growing at a slower pace due to market saturation and increasing consumer preference for healthier alternatives. Bubbies and My/Mochi have played a key role in driving the adoption of mochi ice cream by introducing three new flavors each in 2024. Bubbies launched Chocolate Peanut Butter, Churro, and Mint Chocolate Chip flavors, while My/Mochi's new flavors remain undisclosed. These brands focus on portion control, with each piece typically containing 80 to 110 calories, and visually appealing designs that resonate with Generation Z (Gen Z) and Millennial consumers. These younger demographics prioritize snackable and convenient formats over traditional pint-sized offerings, making mochi ice cream a popular choice.
Yasso's Greek yogurt bars, which provide 5 to 6 grams of protein per bar, have expanded their distribution network to over 15,000 retail locations by 2024. This positions frozen yogurt as a functional dessert that bridges the gap between indulgence and nutrition, appealing to health-conscious consumers seeking balanced options. Additionally, ice cream sandwiches and novelty bars have experienced growth through strategic licensed partnerships. For instance, Wells Enterprises introduced Nutella and Kinder Bueno lines, while Unilever launched the Breyers Campfire Collection, featuring s'mores bars with a toasted marshmallow core and Hershey's chocolate. These collaborations highlight the effectiveness of cross-category licensing in attracting households by offering familiar and trusted flavors in innovative formats. Such partnerships not only drive consumer interest but also encourage trial purchases, further expanding the reach of frozen dessert products.

United States Dairy Desserts Market: Market Share by Product Type
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By Packaging Type: Cups and Tubs Dominate Through Sustainability and Convenience

Cups and tubs held a 40.21% market share in 2024 and are expected to grow at a rate of 3.99% through 2030. This growth is driven by consumer demand for single-serve portion control, the increasing use of sustainable paperboard, and retailer preferences for stackable, shelf-stable formats that maximize freezer space. Wells Enterprises transitioned over 200 million gallons annually from polystyrene to polypropylene cups, improving recyclability and aligning with extended producer responsibility (EPR) mandates in states such as California, Maine, and Oregon.

Berry Global introduced Twist pints, made from recyclable polypropylene and high-density polyethylene (HDPE), which were launched at Walmart, Kroger, and Publix for Blue Bunny in 2024. This demonstrates that sustainable packaging can achieve nationwide distribution while maintaining cost efficiency and essential barrier properties. Additionally, Huhtamaki's Icon packaging, composed of 95% bio-based materials, entered pilot programs with mid-sized creameries aiming to stand out through environmental credentials and appeal to the 73% of consumers who prioritize recyclable packaging.

By Flavor: Nuts and Caramel Surge as Premiumization Accelerates

Vanilla held a 43.43% market share in 2024, driven by its adaptability as a base for mix-ins and its widespread appeal across different age groups. Its popularity underscores its role as a staple flavor in the market. On the other hand, nuts and caramel flavors are emerging as the fastest-growing segment, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.34% expected through 2030. This growth is supported by the inclusion of ingredients like salted caramel, hazelnut, and pecan, which enhance texture and offer a premium positioning to products.

Examples such as Coolhaus' balsamic fig and mascarpone pint and Talenti's hazelnut chocolate chip demonstrate how sophisticated flavor combinations—often inspired by European patisserie—are moving from niche offerings to mainstream acceptance. This shift is largely driven by Millennial and Generation X consumers who are increasingly seeking retail products that deliver restaurant-quality experiences.

United States Dairy Desserts Market: Market Share by Flavors
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By Distribution Channel: On-Trade Recovery Outpaces Off-Trade Growth

Off-trade channels, including supermarkets, hypermarkets, convenience stores, and online retail platforms, accounted for 81.40% of the total volume in 2024. Prominent retailers such as Walmart, Kroger, Albertsons, and regional chains collectively represented 60% of grocery sales in the United States, underscoring the significant role of off-trade channels in shaping the frozen dessert market. Furthermore, the Census Bureau of the Department of Commerce reported that estimated United States retail e-commerce sales for the second quarter of 2025, adjusted for seasonal variation but not for price changes, increased by 1.4% (±0.9%) compared to the first quarter of 2025 [3]Source: United States Census Bureau, "Quarterly Retail E-Commerce Sales," census.gov.

On the other hand, on-trade outlets, such as restaurants, quick-service restaurants (QSRs), and foodservice establishments, are steadily recovering, with an annual growth rate of 3.81% projected through 2030. This recovery is being driven by the reintroduction of dessert menus and limited-time offerings as businesses adjust to the post-pandemic environment. The National Restaurant Association reported that total off-premises foodservice sales, including delivery and takeout, were 49% higher than in 2019, with delivery alone increasing by 65%. This indicates a growing opportunity for frozen desserts tailored for delivery, such as individually wrapped bars, cups, and sundae kits, to meet the evolving consumer demand beyond traditional dine-in experiences.

Geography Analysis

The United States dairy desserts market is shaped by regional preferences and infrastructure, influencing growth patterns across the country. The West Coast, including California, Oregon, and Washington, leads in sustainable packaging and premium flavor innovation. Companies such as Clover Sonoma have transitioned to paperboard cups, Straus Family Creamery is piloting electric heat pumps, and Tillamook is making packaging decisions based on life-cycle assessments. These efforts are driven by regulatory requirements, such as California's Senate Bill 54 (SB 54), and increasing consumer demand for environmentally responsible products. Meanwhile, the Northeast, including New York, Pennsylvania, and Massachusetts, is seeing strong recovery in on-trade channels. New York City's high density of restaurants and tourism has resulted in frozen dessert consumption being 15-20% higher per capita than the national average. Brands like Jeni's Splendid Ice Creams and Van Leeuwen Ice Cream are leveraging flagship scoop shops in Manhattan and Brooklyn to attract foot traffic and build brand recognition before expanding into grocery retail channels.

The Midwest, covering states like Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, and Wisconsin, benefits from its proximity to dairy farms and processing facilities. In 2024, three new ice cream production facilities became operational in Illinois, Indiana, and Texas, with additional capacity planned in Idaho and New York for 2025. These developments help reduce transportation costs and minimize temperature fluctuations, which can lead to spoilage during distribution. In the South, which includes Texas, Florida, and Georgia, year-round warm weather drives 40% higher summer demand than the national average. However, heat waves exceeding 100 degrees Fahrenheit increase refrigeration energy costs by 20-30% and elevate spoilage risks during loading and unloading. To address these challenges, distributors are investing in insulated blankets, dry ice, and expedited transit solutions. Additionally, the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) awarded USD 6.3 million to Virginia and USD 5.2 million to Iowa in 2024 for cold storage and flash-freezing expansions, enhancing regional logistics capacity for ice cream and frozen desserts while reducing spoilage rates in rural areas by an estimated 15-20%.

Rural and suburban markets are also benefiting from the expansion of e-commerce. For example, Dippin' Dots' nationwide direct-to-consumer shipping and Milk Bar's entry into 3,500 grocery stores in 2024 demonstrate how heritage brands can scale distribution without compromising artisanal positioning. Furthermore, innovations such as Robomart's autonomous mobile ice cream stores and Flytrex's drone delivery pilots are testing last-mile solutions. These advancements aim to redefine competitive advantage in dense urban markets, where speed and convenience are critical to purchase decisions.

Competitive Landscape

The United States Dairy Desserts Market shows moderate consolidation, creating opportunities for regional businesses and niche players to expand their presence through unique product positioning, innovative distribution channels, and strategic collaborations. Unilever's decision to separate its ice cream division—generating EUR 7.5 billion (approximately USD 8.2 billion) in revenue—is expected to reshape the competitive landscape. The newly independent entity plans to focus on forming partnerships, expanding geographically, and streamlining its product portfolio without the limitations of operating within a larger conglomerate. Similarly, General Mills' sale of its North American yogurt portfolio, including brands like Yoplait, Go-Gurt, and Oui, to Lactalis and Sodiaal for USD 2.1 billion in September 2024, along with Campbell Soup Company's acquisition of Sovos Brands, which owns Noosa, for USD 2.7 billion in March 2024, reflects a strategic shift toward core dairy dessert offerings. These transactions aim to capitalize on existing distribution networks and manufacturing capabilities to drive operational efficiencies.

Adopting advanced technology is further enhancing the competitive edge of major manufacturers. By 2025, Unilever deployed 350,000 artificial intelligence (AI)-enabled freezers across the United States, achieving a 12 percent increase in sales through inventory optimization using image-capture technology and real-time restocking alerts. Such technological advancements are difficult for smaller brands to replicate without substantial financial investments.

These developments underscore the evolving dynamics of the United States Dairy Desserts Market, where strategic realignments and technological innovations are shaping the competitive environment. While large manufacturers leverage their resources to strengthen their market position, regional and niche players have opportunities to differentiate themselves through innovation and targeted strategies.

United States Dairy Desserts Industry Leaders

  1. Blue Bell Creameries, Inc.

  2. Conagra Brands Inc.

  3. Dairy Farmers of America Inc.

  4. Froneri International Limited

  5. Gifford's Dairy Inc.

  6. *Disclaimer: Major Players sorted in no particular order
United States Dairy Desserts Market Concentration
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Recent Industry Developments

  • January 2025: Unilever unveiled its 2025 United States ice cream lineup across Talenti, Breyers, Popsicle, Good Humor, Magnum, and Klondike, introducing over 20 new products including Talenti Gelato Layers (Chocolate Chip Cookie Batter, Italian Tiramisu, Snickerdoodle Cookie), Breyers Campfire Collection (toasted marshmallow, graham cracker, Hershey's chocolate), and Carb Smart bars (strawberry, rocky road), demonstrating continued assortment diversification and targeting of dietary niches.
  • October 2024: Prairie Farms Dairy acquired SmithFoods, an Ohio-based manufacturer of milk, sour cream, cottage cheese, ice cream, and custard mixes, for an undisclosed sum; the acquisition complements Prairie Farms' network of dairy plants, expands its Ohio footprint, and aims to return value to its 600-plus dairy farm families, with seamless integration and no disruption to manufacturing or delivery
  • April 2024: Rich Products launched the Specialty Treat Shop Turtle Cheesecake Mousse Parfait, a grab-and-go single-serve dessert combining cheesecake mousse with turtle-style inclusions (chocolate, caramel, nuts), aimed at foodservice retailers and convenience channels to capture impulse purchases and premium indulgence occasions .

Table of Contents for United States Dairy Desserts Industry Report

1. INTRODUCTION

  • 1.1 Study Assumptions and Market Definition
  • 1.2 Scope of the Study

2. RESEARCH METHODOLOGY

3. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

4. MARKET LANDSCAPE

  • 4.1 Market Overview
  • 4.2 Market Drivers
    • 4.2.1 Growing health-conscious consumer base demanding reduced-fat, no-sugar, and lactose-free dairy desserts
    • 4.2.2 Increasing demand for premium and innovative dairy dessert products with novel ingredients and flavors
    • 4.2.3 Strong cold chain infrastructure ensuring product quality and availability across regions
    • 4.2.4 Rising interest in sustainable packaging and environmentally friendly products
    • 4.2.5 Expanding distribution networks, including supermarkets, hypermarkets, and online retailers
    • 4.2.6 Rising demand for flavored and variety options such as chocolate, strawberry, and cheesecake
  • 4.3 Market Restraints
    • 4.3.1 Health concerns related to high sugar and fat content in traditional dairy desserts
    • 4.3.2 Stringent regulations on food safety, labeling, and quality compliance
    • 4.3.3 Potential product spoilage risk during transportation and storage
    • 4.3.4 Seasonal demand fluctuations causing variable sales volumes
  • 4.4 Supply Chain Analysis
  • 4.5 Regulatory Outlook
  • 4.6 Porter’s Five Forces
    • 4.6.1 Threat of New Entrants
    • 4.6.2 Bargaining Power of Buyers/Consumers
    • 4.6.3 Bargaining Power of Suppliers
    • 4.6.4 Threat of Substitute Products
    • 4.6.5 Intensity of Competitive Rivalry

5. MARKET SIZE AND GROWTH FORECASTS (VALUE AND VOLUME)

  • 5.1 By Product Type
    • 5.1.1 Cheesecakes
    • 5.1.2 Frozen Desserts
    • 5.1.3 Ice Cream
    • 5.1.4 Mousses
    • 5.1.5 Others
  • 5.2 By Packaging Type
    • 5.2.1 Cups and Tubs
    • 5.2.2 Sticks and Bars
    • 5.2.3 Others
  • 5.3 By Flavor
    • 5.3.1 Vanilla
    • 5.3.2 Chocolate
    • 5.3.3 Fruit-Based
    • 5.3.4 Nuts and Caramel
    • 5.3.5 Others
  • 5.4 By Distribution Channel
    • 5.4.1 Off-Trade
    • 5.4.1.1 Convenience Stores
    • 5.4.1.2 Online Retail
    • 5.4.1.3 Specialist Retailers
    • 5.4.1.4 Supermarkets and Hypermarkets
    • 5.4.1.5 Others
    • 5.4.2 On-Trade

6. COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE

  • 6.1 Market Concentration
  • 6.2 Strategic Moves
  • 6.3 Market Ranking Analysis
  • 6.4 Company Profiles (includes Global-level Overview, Market-level Overview, Core Segments, Financials (if available), Strategic Information, Market Rank/Share, Products and Services, Recent Developments)
    • 6.4.1 Blue Bell Creameries, Inc.
    • 6.4.2 Conagra Brands Inc.
    • 6.4.3 Dairy Farmers of America Inc.
    • 6.4.4 Froneri International Limited
    • 6.4.5 Gifford's Dairy Inc.
    • 6.4.6 HP Hood LLC
    • 6.4.7 Mondelez International Inc.
    • 6.4.8 Unilever PLC
    • 6.4.9 Wells Enterprises Inc.
    • 6.4.10 Nestlé USA Inc.
    • 6.4.11 Danone S.A.
    • 6.4.12 General Mills Inc.
    • 6.4.13 Rich Products Corporation
    • 6.4.14 Tillamook County Creamery Association
    • 6.4.15 Perry's Ice Cream Company, Inc.
    • 6.4.16 Turkey Hill Dairy
    • 6.4.17 Dean Foods Company
    • 6.4.18 Friendly’s Manufacturing & Retail, LLC
    • 6.4.19 Eden Creamery LLC
    • 6.4.20 Jeni’s Splendid Ice Creams LLC

7. MARKET OPPORTUNITIES AND FUTURE OUTLOOK

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United States Dairy Desserts Market Report Scope

Cheesecakes, Frozen Desserts, Ice Cream, Mousses, Others are covered as segments by Product Type. Off-Trade, On-Trade are covered as segments by Distribution Channel.
By Product Type
Cheesecakes
Frozen Desserts
Ice Cream
Mousses
Others
By Packaging Type
Cups and Tubs
Sticks and Bars
Others
By Flavor
Vanilla
Chocolate
Fruit-Based
Nuts and Caramel
Others
By Distribution Channel
Off-Trade Convenience Stores
Online Retail
Specialist Retailers
Supermarkets and Hypermarkets
Others
On-Trade
By Product Type Cheesecakes
Frozen Desserts
Ice Cream
Mousses
Others
By Packaging Type Cups and Tubs
Sticks and Bars
Others
By Flavor Vanilla
Chocolate
Fruit-Based
Nuts and Caramel
Others
By Distribution Channel Off-Trade Convenience Stores
Online Retail
Specialist Retailers
Supermarkets and Hypermarkets
Others
On-Trade
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Market Definition

  • Butter - Butter is a yellow-to-white solid emulsion of fat globules, water, and inorganic salts produced by churning the cream from cows’ milk
  • Dairy - Dairy product include milk and any of the foods made from milk, including butter, cheese, ice cream, yogurt, and condensed and dried milk.
  • Frozen Desserts - Frozen dairy dessert means and includes products containing milk or cream and other ingredients which are frozen or semi-frozen prior to consumption, such as ice milk or sherbet, including frozen dairy desserts for special dietary purposes, and sorbet
  • Sour Milk Drinks - Sour milk is thick, curdled milk, with a sour taste, obtained from the fermentation of milk. Sour milk drinks such as kefir, laban, buttermilk have been considered in the study
Keyword Definition
Cultured Butter Cultured butter is prepared by having the raw butter go through chemical processing and has been added with certain emulsifiers and foreign ingredients.
Uncultured Butter This type of butter is one which has not been processed in any way
Natural Cheese The type of cheese in its most natural form. It is made from natural and simple products and ingredients, including fresh and natural salts, natural colors, enzymes, and high-quality milk.
Processed Cheese Processed cheese undergoes the same processes as natural cheese; however, it requires more steps and many different forms of ingredients. Making processed cheese involves melting natural cheese, emulsifying it, and adding preservatives and other artificial ingredients or colorings.
Single Cream Single cream contains around 18% fat. It’s a single layer of cream that appears over boiled milk.
Double Cream Double cream contains 48% fat, more than double the amount of fat of single cream. It’s heavier and thicker than single cream
Whipping Cream This has a much higher fat percentage than single cream (36%). Used to top cakes, pies, and puddings and as a thickener for sauces, soups, and fillings.
Frozen Desserts Desserts that are meant to be eaten in frozen condition. E.g., sherbets, sorbets, frozen yogurts
UHT Milk (Ultra-high temperature milk) Milk heated at a very high temperature. Ultra-high-temperature processing (UHT) of milk involves heating for 1–8 sec at 135–154°C. which kills the spore-forming pathogenic microorganism, resulting in a product with a shelf-life of several months.
Non-dairy butter/Plant-based butter Butter made from plant-derived oil such as coconut, palm, etc.
Non-dairy Yogurt Yogurt made from typically made from nuts, like almonds, cashews, coconuts, and even other foods like soybeans, plantains, oats, and peas
On-trade It refers to restaurants, QSRs, and bars.
Off-trade It refers to supermarkets, hypermarkets, on-line channels, etc.
Neufchatel cheese One of the oldest kinds of cheese in France. It is a soft, slightly crumbly, mold-ripened, bloomy-rind cheese made in the Neufchâtel-en-Bray region of Normandy.
Flexitarian It refers to a consumer preferring a semi-vegetarian diet, that is centered on plant foods with limited or occasional inclusion of meat.
Lactose Intolerance Lactose intolerance is a reaction in digestive system to lactose, the sugar in milk. It causes uncomfortable symptoms in response to the consumption of dairy products.
Cream Cheese Cream cheese is a soft and creamy fresh cheese with a tangy taste made from milk and cream.
Sorbets Sorbet is a frozen dessert made using ice combined with fruit juice, fruit purée, or other ingredients, such as wine, liqueur, or honey.
Sherbet Sherbet is a sweetened frozen dessert made with fruit and some sort of dairy product such as milk or cream.
Shelf stable Foods that can be safely stored at room temperature, or "on the shelf," for at least one year and do not have to be cooked or refrigerated to eat safely.
DSD Direct Store Delivery is the process in supply chain management wherein the product is delivered from manufacturing plant directly to the retailer.
OU Kosher Orthodox Union Kosher is a kosher certification agency based in New York City.
Gelato Gelato is a frozen creamy dessert made with milk, heavy cream and sugar.
Grass-fed Cows Grass-fed cows are allowed to graze in pastures, where they eat a variety of grasses and clover.
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Research Methodology

Mordor Intelligence follows a four-step methodology in all our reports.

  • Step-1: Identify Key Variables: In order to build a robust forecasting methodology, the variables and factors identified in Step 1 are tested against available historical market numbers. Through an iterative process, the variables required for market forecast are set, and the model is built on the basis of these variables.​
  • Step-2: Build a Market Model: Market-size estimations for the forecast years are in nominal terms. Inflation is not a part of the pricing, and the average selling price (ASP) is kept constant throughout the forecast period for each country.​
  • Step-3: Validate and Finalize: In this important step, all market numbers, variables, and analyst calls are validated through an extensive network of primary research experts from the market studied. The respondents are selected across levels and functions to generate a holistic picture of the market studied.​
  • Step-4: Research Outputs: Syndicated Reports, Custom Consulting Assignments, Databases & Subscription Platforms
research-methodology
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