Small Caliber Ammunition Market Size & Share Analysis - Growth Trends & Forecasts (2025 - 2030)

The Small Caliber Ammunition Market Report is Segmented by Caliber (5. 56 Mm, 6. 8 Mm, 7. 62 Mm, 9 Mm, 12. 7 Mm, and Other Calibers), Weapon Platform (Handguns, Rifles, Light Machine Guns, Sub-Machine Guns, and Shotguns), Bullet Type (Brass, Copper, and More), Lethality (Lethal and Less Lethal), End-Use (Military, and More), and Geography (North America, Europe, and More). The Market Forecasts are Provided in Terms of Value (USD).

Small Caliber Ammunition Market Size and Share

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Small Caliber Ammunition Market Analysis by Mordor Intelligence

The small caliber ammunition market generated USD 8.90 billion in 2025 and is forecasted to reach USD 10.35 billion by 2030 at a 3.06% CAGR. Current growth rests on steady defense procurement, a rising civilian shooting base, and the US Army decision to move from 5.56 mm to 6.8 mm ammunition. This shift is already influencing NATO partners and global supply chains. Near-term demand is underpinned by higher munition budgets in North America and Europe, while Asia-Pacific demand rises fastest as India and other regional militaries seek self-sufficiency. Civilian consumption remains resilient thanks to sustained hunting and target-shooting participation in the United States. Production, however, faces raw-material shortages after Chinese export controls on nitrocellulose and antimony, creating pressure on Western manufacturers to diversify sourcing. Environmental policy is another structural driver, pushing producers toward lead-free bullets and polymer cases.

Key Report Takeaways

  • By caliber, 5.56 mm retained 26.76% of the small caliber ammunition market share in 2024, while the emerging 6.8 mm segment is poised for a 7.89% CAGR to 2030.
  • By weapon platform, rifle ammunition held 32.77% of the small caliber ammunition market size in 2024, yet sub-machine gun rounds are projected to grow at 5.12% CAGR through 2030.
  • By bullet type, brass rounds accounted for 59.88% revenue in 2024; copper-based products will advance at a 5.66% CAGR to 2030.
  • By lethality, lethal rounds controlled 88.90% of global revenue in 2024, but less-lethal options are expanding at 5.01% CAGR through 2030.
  • By end-use, military customers represented 60.11% of 2024 sales, while civilian demand is growing at 4.24% CAGR on the back of 47 million active US recreational shooters, according to the US Fish and Wildlife Service.
  • By geography, North America led with 29.89% revenue share in 2024, whereas Asia-Pacific is the fastest-growing region with a 4.90% CAGR to 2030.

Segment Analysis

By Caliber: 6.8 mm Innovation Drives Transformation

The small caliber ammunition market size for 5.56 mm stood at 26.76% of global revenue in 2024 and remains significant due to widespread inventory and legacy weapon systems. However, 6.8 mm cartridges will expand at 7.89% CAGR through 2030 as US and allied militaries field new rifles. This growth layer compensates for the tapering procurement of older calibers. Over the forecast window, many NATO members will dual-source 5.56 mm and 6.8 mm ammunition, cushioning any abrupt logistical shift.

SIG Sauer’s hybrid-case design illustrates why 6.8 mm is central to future lethality, offering higher chamber pressures without excessive weight or heat. Nordic testing programs and the British Army’s caliber evaluations exemplify broader interest in next-generation ballistics. The segment, therefore, splits into legacy-maintenance and future-proof lines, creating rich demand for flexible producers.

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Note: Segment shares of all individual segments available upon report purchase

By Weapon Platform: Rifle Dominance Amid SMG Acceleration

Rifle ammunition formed 32.77% of 2024 global sales and remains indispensable for infantry operations and precision sport shooting. Even so, the small caliber ammunition market notices rising orders for compact rounds used in sub-machine guns, projected at a 5.12% CAGR to 2030. Urban counter-terror missions and police units value the shorter barrels and agility these platforms offer.

India’s adoption of the Asmi machine-pistol signals the trend among militaries to complement rifles with lighter weapons that retain lethal stopping power. Ammunition companies respond by engineering cartridges with optimized burn rates to match shorter barrels, ensuring reliable cycling and terminal energy.

By Bullet Type: Brass Legacy Meets Copper Innovation

Brass-cased rounds held a 59.88% share in 2024 because of cost efficiency and mass-production familiarity. Environmental mandates, though, push copper projectiles and polymer casings to the fore, giving the bullet-type segment a technological twist. Copper-based rounds are expected to expand at a 5.66% CAGR to 2030.

True Velocity’s polymer composite case, now delivered at scale, demonstrates weight savings that appeal to soldiers and competitive shooters. EU proposals for a full lead ban in hunting ammunition further tilt demand toward non-lead compositions, compelling producers to master alternative alloys and heat-treatment processes.

Small Caliber Ammunition Market_By Bullet Type
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Note: Segment shares of all individual segments available upon report purchase

By Lethality: Less-Lethal Growth Amid Lethal Dominance

Lethal cartridges still account for 88.90% of spending, reflecting requisite battlefield and personal-defense needs. Nonetheless, less-lethal products, including rubber rounds and pepper projectiles, are gaining acceptance among law-enforcement agencies. This niche should log a 5.01% CAGR through 2030.

Police departments seek tools that reduce fatal encounters but insist on predictable accuracy and reliability. Thus, manufacturers invest in materials that deform on impact without penetrating skin and cartridges that generate lower muzzle energy to limit injury.

By End-Use: Military Leadership with Civilian Momentum

Military buyers controlled 60.11% of global revenue in 2024, a dominance reinforced by strategic stockpiling after the Ukraine war’s intense ammo burn rate. Civilian users post a 4.24% CAGR to 2030 as hunting, competitive shooting, and personal protection continue to expand in large markets such as the United States.

The dual-track demand structure shields producers from single-channel volatility. Many firms operate government and commercial production lines side by side, switching volume between them to keep plants fully utilized.

Geography Analysis

North America led with a 29.89% revenue share in 2024, powered by the United States' USD 849.8 billion defense budget and a vibrant civilian shooting culture. Lake City Army Ammunition Plant alone supplies about 85% of the US military's small-caliber requirements while selling commercial overruns to the market. Federal and state programs promoting lead-free hunting keep product diversity high, forcing local producers to allocate R&D funds toward non-toxic formulas.

Asia-Pacific shows the fastest trajectory at a 4.90% CAGR to 2030. India's Atmanirbhar Bharat policy has directed substantial investment toward indigenous ammunition lines, and procurement delays from traditional suppliers push New Delhi to widen its vendor base. Regional flashpoints in the South and East China Seas further motivate nations to expand stockpiles. South Korea, for instance, maintains one of the world's largest 105 mm inventories and has signaled its willingness to provide ammunition to partners.[2]Center for Strategic and International Studies, “South Korean Munitions Supply Assessment,” csis.org

Europe is retooling its industrial base after the Ukraine conflict exposed supply shortfalls. Rheinmetall has raised annual artillery shell output by an order of magnitude, and the nine-country SAAT initiative seeks a harmonized ammunition standard to safeguard interoperability. At the same time, the European Chemicals Agency's lead-restriction roadmap compels European manufacturers to retrofit lines for copper-based bullets.

Small Caliber Ammunition Market_Growth Rate by region
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Competitive Landscape

The small caliber ammunition market presents moderate concentration. Olin Corporation’s Winchester division benefits from its Lake City operating contract, placing the company at the center of the US military supply. Vista Outdoor has agreed to sell its Kinetic Group to Czechoslovak Group, a deal that could reshape the US commercial and government channels once regulatory review concludes.

Strategic emphasis is on capacity expansion, material innovation, and forward integration into components. BAE Systems plc, for example, invested GBP 8.5 million (USD 11.56 million) in continuous-flow explosive processing to streamline propellant formulation.[3]BAE Systems, “Continuous Flow Processing Investment,” baesystems.com Patent filings also show activity in smart fuzes and adaptive projectiles, hinting at future value-added niches.

Supply risk reshapes sourcing strategy. Western producers now negotiate multi-year offtake agreements for antimony and nitrocellulose outside China. Firms with vertically integrated primer or propellant capabilities gain a hedge against raw-material squeezes. Meanwhile, niche specialists in polymer casings or non-lead hunting rounds are attracting venture and defense-innovation funding, challenging incumbents on agility and cost per round.

Small Caliber Ammunition Industry Leaders

  1. Olin Corporation

  2. CBC Global Ammunition

  3. Nammo AS

  4. Northrop Grumman Corporation

  5. Elbit Systems Ltd.

  6. *Disclaimer: Major Players sorted in no particular order
Small Caliber Ammunition Market  Concentration
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Recent Industry Developments

  • May 2025: Nammo secured a SEK 1.8 billion (USD 0.19 billion) contract with the Swedish Defence Materiel Administration for the supply of small-caliber ammunition, marking its largest Swedish agreement. Deliveries under the 10-year framework will occur between 2026 and 2028.
  • February 2025: The US Army initiated construction of a 450,000-square-foot ammunition facility at Lake City Army Ammunition Plant in Missouri. Operated by Olin Winchester, it will produce 385 million cartridges and 490 million projectiles annually for Next Generation Squad Weapons.
  • January 2025: FN Herstal launched the SAAT project with EUR 8.3 million (USD 9.63 million) in funding across nine European states to develop common small-arms ammunition standards, including advanced projectile prototypes.

Table of Contents for Small Caliber Ammunition Industry Report

1. INTRODUCTION

  • 1.1 Study Assumptions and Market Definition
  • 1.2 Scope of the Study

2. RESEARCH METHODOLOGY

3. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

4. MARKET LANDSCAPE

  • 4.1 Market Overview
  • 4.2 Market Drivers
    • 4.2.1 Defense budget growth fueling sustained demand for operational and training rounds
    • 4.2.2 Rising civilian ownership and sporting interest sustaining commercial ammunition sales
    • 4.2.3 Military ammunition modernization anchored in high-performance calibers
    • 4.2.4 Environmental regulations accelerating transition to lead-free ammunition
    • 4.2.5 Lightweight polymer and hybrid casings driving multi-nation trials
    • 4.2.6 Simulation and indoor training demand boosting specialized rounds
  • 4.3 Market Restraints
    • 4.3.1 Stricter firearm and ammunition export controls limiting international trade flows
    • 4.3.2 Ongoing supply chain disruptions affecting primer and propellant availability
    • 4.3.3 Rising raw material costs for copper and antimony inflating manufacturing expenses
    • 4.3.4 Gradual defense pivot toward directed-energy weapons and unmanned system lethality reducing long-term demand
  • 4.4 Value Chain Analysis
  • 4.5 Regulatory Landscape
  • 4.6 Technological Outlook
  • 4.7 Porter's Five Forces Analysis
    • 4.7.1 Threat of New Entrants
    • 4.7.2 Bargaining Power of Buyers/Consumers
    • 4.7.3 Bargaining Power of Suppliers
    • 4.7.4 Threat of Substitute Products
    • 4.7.5 Intensity of Competitive Rivalry

5. MARKET SIZE AND GROWTH FORECASTS (VALUE)

  • 5.1 By Caliber
    • 5.1.1 5.56 mm
    • 5.1.2 6.8 mm
    • 5.1.3 7.62 mm
    • 5.1.4 9 mm
    • 5.1.5 12.7 mm
    • 5.1.6 Other Calibers
  • 5.2 By Weapon Platform
    • 5.2.1 Handguns
    • 5.2.2 Rifles
    • 5.2.3 Light Machine Guns (LMGs)
    • 5.2.4 Sub-machine Guns (SMGs)
    • 5.2.5 Shotguns
  • 5.3 By Bullet Type
    • 5.3.1 Brass
    • 5.3.2 Copper
    • 5.3.3 Steel
    • 5.3.4 Others
  • 5.4 By Lethality
    • 5.4.1 Less Lethal
    • 5.4.2 Lethal
  • 5.5 By End-Use
    • 5.5.1 Military
    • 5.5.2 Homeland Security
    • 5.5.3 Civilian
  • 5.6 By Geography
    • 5.6.1 North America
    • 5.6.1.1 United States
    • 5.6.1.2 Canada
    • 5.6.1.3 Mexico
    • 5.6.2 Europe
    • 5.6.2.1 United Kingdom
    • 5.6.2.2 Germany
    • 5.6.2.3 France
    • 5.6.2.4 Russia
    • 5.6.2.5 Rest of Europe
    • 5.6.3 Asia-Pacific
    • 5.6.3.1 China
    • 5.6.3.2 India
    • 5.6.3.3 Japan
    • 5.6.3.4 South Korea
    • 5.6.3.5 Rest of Asia-Pacific
    • 5.6.4 South America
    • 5.6.4.1 Brazil
    • 5.6.4.2 Rest of South America
    • 5.6.5 Middle East and Africa
    • 5.6.5.1 Middle East
    • 5.6.5.1.1 Saudi Arabia
    • 5.6.5.1.2 United Arab Emirates
    • 5.6.5.1.3 Rest of Middle East
    • 5.6.5.2 Africa
    • 5.6.5.2.1 South Africa
    • 5.6.5.2.2 Rest of Africa

6. COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE

  • 6.1 Market Concentration
  • 6.2 Strategic Moves
  • 6.3 Market Share Analysis
  • 6.4 Company Profiles (includes Global level Overview, Market level overview, Core Segments, Financials as available, Strategic Information, Market Rank/Share for key companies, Products and Services, and Recent Developments)
    • 6.4.1 Northrop Grumman Corporation
    • 6.4.2 Elbit Systems Ltd.
    • 6.4.3 Olin Corporation
    • 6.4.4 CBC Global Ammunition
    • 6.4.5 Nammo AS
    • 6.4.6 BAE Systems plc
    • 6.4.7 Beretta Holding S.A.
    • 6.4.8 Hornady Manufacturing, Inc.
    • 6.4.9 Fiocchi Munizioni S.p.A.
    • 6.4.10 Denel SOC Ltd.
    • 6.4.11 MESKO S.A.
    • 6.4.12 PT Pindad
    • 6.4.13 SIG SAUER, Inc.
    • 6.4.14 FN HERSTAL (FN Browning Group)
    • 6.4.15 Sellier & Bellot a.s. (Colt CZ Group SE)
    • 6.4.16 Barnaul Ammunition
    • 6.4.17 Prvi Partizan A.D.
    • 6.4.18 Rheinmetall AG

7. MARKET OPPORTUNITIES AND FUTURE OUTLOOK

  • 7.1 White-space and Unmet-need Assessment
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Global Small Caliber Ammunition Market Report Scope

The small caliber includes the range of ammunition in production and deployment that are below .50 caliber (12.7 mm), including 5.56 mm, 7.62 mm, 9 mm, 10- and 12-gauge, .22 caliber, .30 caliber, .38 caliber, .45 caliber, and .300 Winchester Magnum (WinMag). The report also includes ammunition used by military personnel and civilians. The military segment includes procurements by the military (army, navy, and air force), homeland security, local law enforcement agencies, border security forces, and special forces.

The small caliber ammunition market is segmented by end-user and geography. By end-user, the market is segmented into civilian and military. The report also covers the market sizes and forecasts for the small caliber ammunition market in major countries across different regions. For each segment, the market size is provided in terms of value (USD).

By Caliber 5.56 mm
6.8 mm
7.62 mm
9 mm
12.7 mm
Other Calibers
By Weapon Platform Handguns
Rifles
Light Machine Guns (LMGs)
Sub-machine Guns (SMGs)
Shotguns
By Bullet Type Brass
Copper
Steel
Others
By Lethality Less Lethal
Lethal
By End-Use Military
Homeland Security
Civilian
By Geography North America United States
Canada
Mexico
Europe United Kingdom
Germany
France
Russia
Rest of Europe
Asia-Pacific China
India
Japan
South Korea
Rest of Asia-Pacific
South America Brazil
Rest of South America
Middle East and Africa Middle East Saudi Arabia
United Arab Emirates
Rest of Middle East
Africa South Africa
Rest of Africa
By Caliber
5.56 mm
6.8 mm
7.62 mm
9 mm
12.7 mm
Other Calibers
By Weapon Platform
Handguns
Rifles
Light Machine Guns (LMGs)
Sub-machine Guns (SMGs)
Shotguns
By Bullet Type
Brass
Copper
Steel
Others
By Lethality
Less Lethal
Lethal
By End-Use
Military
Homeland Security
Civilian
By Geography
North America United States
Canada
Mexico
Europe United Kingdom
Germany
France
Russia
Rest of Europe
Asia-Pacific China
India
Japan
South Korea
Rest of Asia-Pacific
South America Brazil
Rest of South America
Middle East and Africa Middle East Saudi Arabia
United Arab Emirates
Rest of Middle East
Africa South Africa
Rest of Africa
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Key Questions Answered in the Report

What is the current value of the small caliber ammunition market?

The market is valued at USD 8.90 billion in 2025 and is expected to reach USD 10.35 billion by 2030 with a 3.06% CAGR.

Which caliber segment is growing fastest?

The 6.8 mm caliber segment is expanding at a 7.89% CAGR through 2030 due to adoption by the US Army and allied forces.

Why is Asia-Pacific the fastest-growing region?

India’s drive for indigenous production and rising regional security tensions push Asia-Pacific demand at a 4.90% CAGR.

How are environmental regulations affecting ammunition design?

Lead-free mandates in Europe and several US states are accelerating development of copper projectiles and polymer casings.

What supply-chain challenges does the industry face?

Export curbs on nitrocellulose and antimony, plus heavy reliance on single-source plants, raise primer and propellant scarcity risks.

Which companies lead the market today?

Key players include Northrop Grumman Corporation, Olin Corporation, CBC Global Ammunition, Nammo AS, and Elbit Systems Ltd. all of which are expanding capacity and investing in new materials.

Page last updated on: June 26, 2025

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