Market Overview
| Study Period | 2019 - 2030 |
|---|---|
| Market Size (2025) | USD 27.26 Trillion |
| Market Size (2030) | USD 36.91 Trillion |
| Growth Rate (2025 - 2030) | 6.25% CAGR |
| Fastest Growing Market | Asia Pacific |
| Largest Market | North America |
| Market Concentration | Low |
Major Players
*Disclaimer: Major Players sorted in no particular order Image © Mordor Intelligence. Reuse requires attribution under CC BY 4.0. |
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Retail Industry Analysis by Mordor Intelligence
The Retail Industry is expected to grow from USD 27.26 trillion in 2025 to USD 36.91 trillion by 2030, at a CAGR of 6.25% during the forecast period (2025-2030).
This momentum signals an industry that has learned to thrive amid supply-chain shocks, inflation cycles, and shifting shopper expectations. AI-driven personalization, omnichannel fulfilment, retail-media monetization, and quick-commerce experimentation now underpin most growth strategies. At the same time, retailers must navigate stricter data-privacy laws, freight volatility, and an acute technology-talent gap that raises the cost of digital transformation.
Key Report Takeaways
- By product type, food, beverage & grocery led with 52.12% of global retail industry share in 2024, whereas pharmaceuticals & health are projected to accelerate at a 10.01% CAGR to 2030.
- By distribution channel, supermarkets/hypermarkets captured 36.63% of the global retail industry size in 2024, while online & mobile commerce is forecast to expand at an 11.31% CAGR through 2030.
- By geography, North America commanded 30.21% of the 2024 revenue pool, yet Asia-Pacific is the fastest-growing region in the retail market at a 9.19% CAGR to 2030.
- The five front-runners, Walmart, Amazon, Costco, Schwarz Group, and Alibaba, collectively account for a sizeable slice of industry sales, confirming a moderately concentrated landscape.
Global Retail Industry Trends and Insights
Drivers Impact Analysis
| Driver | (~) % Impact on CAGR Forecast | Geographic Relevance | Impact Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rise of E-commerce and Omnichannel Retailing | +1.8% | Global, with APAC and North America leading | Medium term (2-4 years) |
| Growing Urban Middle Class in Emerging Markets | +1.2% | APAC core, spill-over to Latin America and MEA | Long term (≥ 4 years) |
| AI-powered Personalisation and Retail Analytics | +0.9% | North America & EU, expanding to APAC | Short term (≤ 2 years) |
| Expansion of Quick-Commerce and Last-Mile Logistics | +0.7% | Urban centers globally, concentrated in APAC and North America | Medium term (2-4 years) |
| Retail-Media Network Monetisation Boom | +0.5% | North America and EU primarily | Short term (≤ 2 years) |
| Gen-Z "Shoppertainment" Social Commerce | +0.4% | Global, with strongest adoption in APAC and North America | Medium term (2-4 years) |
| Source: Mordor Intelligence | |||
Rise of E-commerce and Omnichannel Retailing
Same-day and next-day standards have become baseline expectations after Amazon fulfilled 9 billion rapid-delivery orders in 2024, 29% more than the prior year. Retailers are redesigning networks with micro-fulfilment nodes, unified stock views, and adaptive routing engines. Walmart’s USD 520 million robotics rollout exemplifies how legacy chains invest in automated fulfilment to match digital natives. The omnichannel push also monetises store fleets through services like buy-online-pick-up-in-store and curbside collection, though it raises complexity and capital intensity.
Growing Urban Middle Class in Emerging Markets
Rising disposable incomes fuel discretionary consumption across Asia-Pacific. India’s retail sales touched INR 82 lakh crore (USD 980 billion) in 2024, with projections surpassing INR 190 lakh crore (USD 2.3 trillion) by 2034. The urbanization trend creates density advantages for retailers, enabling efficient last-mile delivery networks and concentrated marketing investments. However, serving emerging market consumers requires localized assortment strategies and flexible payment options, including digital wallets and installment plans.
AI-powered Personalization and Retail Analytics
Artificial intelligence has shifted from pilot projects to core infrastructure, with 56% of chains having used the technology for more than three years and 67% reporting measurable efficiency gains[1]Source: Phil Thompson, “Retailers Turn to AI for Efficiency Gains,” KPMG, kpmg.com. Predictive engines now guide demand planning, price optimization, and real-time promotions. The technology's evolution toward autonomous decision-making systems will likely reshape retail operations fundamentally, with early adopters gaining sustainable competitive advantages through superior customer insights and operational efficiency.
Expansion of Quick-Commerce and Last-Mile Logistics
India’s quick-commerce penetration could climb from 0.3% in 2023 to as high as 3% by 2028, implying a 60-80% CAGR. Operators add micro-fulfilment “dark stores,” deploy AI demand-sensing models, and rely on gig fleets to promise sub-30-minute service across bigger assortments such as electronics and beauty. Companies like Blinkit, Instamart, and Zepto are expanding beyond grocery categories to include consumer electronics and personal care products, broadening the addressable market. The sector's growth trajectory suggests that quick commerce will become a standard service offering rather than a premium option, forcing retailers to balance delivery speed with cost efficiency.
Restraints Impact Analysis
| Restraint | (~) % Impact on CAGR Forecast | Geographic Relevance | Impact Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|
| Supply-chain Disruptions and Freight Volatility | -0.8% | Global, with particular impact on import-dependent regions | Short term (≤ 2 years) |
| Margin Squeeze from Price Wars | -0.6% | Global, intensified in mature markets | Medium term (2-4 years) |
| Escalating Data-Privacy Regulation | -0.4% | EU and North America primarily, expanding globally | Long term (≥ 4 years) |
| Tech-Talent Shortage for Automation Roll-outs | -0.3% | Global, most acute in developed markets | Medium term (2-4 years) |
| Source: Mordor Intelligence | |||
Supply-chain Disruptions and Freight Volatility
Over-the-road trucking moves 72% of U.S. freight by weight but faces an expected driver gap of 1.2 million by 2030. Geopolitical flashpoints and port congestion compound volatility, forcing retailers to raise safety stocks and diversify suppliers, tying up working capital and compressing margins. The ongoing nature of these disruptions suggests that supply chain agility and redundancy will become permanent competitive advantages rather than temporary crisis responses.
Escalating Data-Privacy Regulation
The retail industry is increasingly constrained by tightening global data-privacy regulations. In 2024, California’s privacy watchdog fined fashion retailer Todd Snyder USD 345,178 for cookie-consent violations under the California Consumer Privacy Act (CCPA), underscoring stricter enforcement. From April 2025, the UK’s Digital Markets, Competition and Consumers Act empowers authorities to levy penalties of up to 10% of a company’s global turnover for non-compliance. These developments signal a shift toward greater accountability in data handling. As a result, retailers are compelled to increase legal and compliance spending, limiting their ability to use customer data freely for personalised marketing and digital engagement. This rising regulatory burden challenges traditional data-driven strategies and necessitates a reevaluation of how customer insights are gathered, stored, and applied in retail.
Segment Analysis
By Product Type: Health Segment Drives Premium Growth
Food, Beverage & Grocery retained a 52.12% slice of the global retail market share in 2024, cementing its status as the core revenue pillar for most chains. The category shows low elasticity across economic cycles, supported by frequent purchase rhythms and broad household penetration. Pharmaceuticals & Health, while smaller, is on track for a robust 10.01% CAGR to 2030, reflecting aging populations, wider in-store clinic footprints, and rising wellness consciousness. The segment’s prescription services, immunisation programs, and OTC assortment carry higher margins than staple groceries, improving overall mix. Retailers are redesigning shelf plans, dedicating more floor space to vitamins, beauty-adjacent nutraceuticals, and at-home diagnostic kits to capture that momentum.
Personal & Household Care enjoys incremental tailwinds from premiumisation—consumers trade up to eco-certified detergents and refillable packaging formats that command thicker margins. Apparel, Footwear, & Accessories remain pressured by fast-fashion rivals and a consumer pivot toward experiences, though differentiated collaborations such as Target’s 500-item Champion launch in August 2025 aim to reignite traffic. Consumer Electronics and Appliances face uneven replacement cycles; chains offset volatility through warranties and trade-in programs. Furniture and Home Décor ride remote-work renovation waves yet feel interest-rate sensitivity. Toys, Hobby & Leisure persists on the back of gaming, collectibles, and community-driven launches that lean heavily on social amplification.
Note: Segment shares of all individual segments available upon report purchase
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By Distribution Channel: Digital Acceleration Reshapes Retail Landscape
Supermarkets and Hypermarkets remained the largest conduit, holding 36.63% of global retail market size in 2024. Their wide assortments and supply-chain scale still anchor weekly grocery trips. Nonetheless, Online & Mobile Commerce will experience an 11.31% CAGR through 2030, underlining a structural migration to digital carts, frictionless checkout, and doorstep fulfilment. Rapid improvements in last-mile density and embedded financing spur adoption even in rural areas. Retailers invest in headless commerce stacks, smart-cart sensors, and AI chatbots to replicate store assistant discovery in virtual aisles.
Convenience and Discount Stores ride urbanisation and compressed shopper timetables, with front-end remodels to speed grab-and-go missions. Specialty Stores counter online risk by curating deep expertise, exclusive SKUs, and service-led experiences. Department Stores struggle to reassert relevance, often converting upper floors to fulfilment zones or co-working hubs. Quick-commerce platforms, the newest entry, harness micro-warehouses and gig couriers to promise 15-minute delivery on SKUs beyond grocery staples. Sam’s Club’s decision to remove manned checkouts across 600 clubs and rely on Scan & Go demonstrates how physical formats are shedding friction.
Note: Segment shares of all individual segments available upon report purchase
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Geography Analysis
North America generated 30.21% of global retail industry revenue in 2024. The United States drives regional heft through powerful retail-media networks, AI-optimised supply chains, and high average-order values. Canada leverages cross-border synergies, while Mexico benefits from near-shoring trends that uplift formal consumption. Innovation remains intense: FairPrice Group trialled AI-powered carts and computer-vision analytics in partnership with Google Cloud, compressing checkout to under two minutes. Sustaining growth will rest on extending value-added services, improving labour productivity, and further integrating physical assets with digital engagement.
Asia-Pacific is the momentum engine in the retail market: its 9.19% CAGR to 2030 far outpaces developed regions, driven by youthful demographics, urban densification, and mobile-first consumer behaviour. India’s retail value reached Rs 82 lakh crore (USD 980 billion) in 2024 and is poised to more than double by 2034, thanks to pro-digital policy support and rising wallet sizes. China’s ecosystem remains a bellwether for livestreaming, social-commerce, and warehouse robotics that increasingly set global benchmarks. Southeast Asian economies such as Indonesia and Vietnam offer green-field potential but require nuanced localisation around payments, languages, and regulation.
Europe shows uneven performance in the retail market. The UK eked out 0.7% retail sales growth in 2024 as cost-of-living pressures linger, though e-commerce now tops 27% of total retail turnover. Germany’s discounters Lidl and Kaufland maintain share by scaling private labels and refining cost discipline, while France and Spain benefit from tourist resurgence and hybrid luxury-mass propositions. The Middle East and Africa register growing grocery footprints—Saudi Arabia’s sector is valued at USD 62 billion—with public-sector diversification plans stimulating modern trade formats
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Competitive Landscape
The global retail industry displays moderate concentration: Walmart, Amazon, Costco, Schwarz Group, and Alibaba together capture a meaningful sales portion and exert supply-chain influence. Amazon may out-sell Walmart for the first time on a quarterly basis in Q4 2024, targeting USD 187 billion versus USD 180 billion for its rival. Leaders wield economies of scale, proprietary tech stacks, and deep data lakes that drive algorithmic pricing, endless aisle assortment, and fast fulfilment.
Strategic themes hinge on omnichannel orchestration, private-label penetration, and diversification into services, from retail media to healthcare clinics. Roughly 81% of U.S. retail executives channel capital into AI for demand forecasting and warehouse automation. Quick-commerce, social shopping, and sustainability offer a runway for differentiated value, although profitability remains contingent on order density and efficient reverse logistics.
Emerging disruptors include direct-to-consumer micro-brands, creator-led merchandise, and venture-backed quick-delivery specialists that chip at incumbent wallet share. Incumbents respond by acquiring technology assets—Symbolics’ purchase of Walmart’s Advanced Systems unit for USD 200 million plus earn-outs[3]Source: Symbotic Inc., “Symbotic Acquires Walmart Advanced Systems & Robotics Business,” Symbotic Investor Relations, symbotic.com. Long-term winners will be those that couple automation with human-centric service, monetize first-party data responsibly, and institutionalize agile operating models that iterate as consumer behavior evolves.
Retail Market Leaders
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Walmart Inc.
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Amazon Inc.
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Costco Wholesale Corporation
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Schwarz Group
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Alibaba Group
- *Disclaimer: Major Players sorted in no particular order
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Recent Industry Developments
- June 2025: Coinbase introduced a stablecoin payments platform aimed at the USD 6 trillion e-commerce arena, potentially bypassing incumbent card rails.
- June 2025: Ocado began building a robotic fulfilment centre in Catalonia for Bon Preu, extending its automation tech deeper into Europe.
- June 2025: Starbucks rolled out the “Green Dot Assist” Azure OpenAI tool in 35 stores to trim drink prep times to four minutes.
- May 2025: Dick’s Sporting Goods agreed to acquire Foot Locker for USD 2.4 billion, creating a 2,400-store global sports retailer.
Research Methodology Framework and Report Scope
Market Definitions and Key Coverage
Our analysts treat the global retail industry as the total invoiced value of finished goods sold to final consumers through store-based, non-store, and omnichannel formats, covering food, beverage, apparel, consumer durables, and everyday essentials. We count sales booked in the country where the transaction takes place, net of returns and inclusive of taxes.
Scope exclusion: pure wholesale trade and strictly B2B online marketplaces are not included.
Segmentation Overview
- By Product Type
- Food, Beverage and Grocery
- Personal and Household Care
- Apparel, Footwear and Accessories
- Consumer Electronics and Appliances
- Furniture and Home Decor
- Toys, Hobby and Leisure
- Pharmaceuticals and Health
- By Distribution Channel
- Supermarkets / Hypermarkets
- Convenience and Discount Stores
- Specialty Stores
- Department Stores
- Online and Mobile Commerce
- Quick-Commerce Platforms
- By Geography
- North America
- Canada
- United States
- Mexico
- South America
- Brazil
- Peru
- Chile
- Argentina
- Rest of South America
- Asia-Pacific
- India
- China
- Japan
- Australia
- South Korea
- South-East Asia (Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand, Indonesia, Vietnam, Philippines)
- Rest of Asia-Pacific
- Europe
- United Kingdom
- Germany
- France
- Spain
- Italy
- BENELUX (Belgium, Netherlands, Luxembourg)
- NORDICS (Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway, Sweden)
- Rest of Europe
- Middle East & Africa
- United Arab Emirates
- Saudi Arabia
- South Africa
- Nigeria
- Rest of Middle East & Africa
- North America
Detailed Research Methodology and Data Validation
Primary Research
Senior merchandisers, real-estate heads, and digital-commerce leads across North America, Europe, Asia-Pacific, the Gulf, and Latin America were interviewed or surveyed. Their inputs refine price-point ladders, promotional intensity, and the pace at which cashless and same-day delivery options permeate each region, letting us adjust assumptions that pure desk work cannot surface.
Desk Research
We first map the demand pool using publicly available macro and trade statistics drawn from agencies such as the UN Statistics Division, the US Census Monthly Retail Trade Survey, Eurostat's retail turnover index, China's National Bureau of Statistics, and the WTO's customs data, which anchor national sales and cross-border flows. According to Mordor analysts, supplemental trend signals are pulled from OECD household-consumption tables, the National Retail Federation, and regional retail councils, giving us an up-to-date view on channel mix and shopper behavior.
Company 10-Ks, investor decks, and selected media coverage housed in Dow Jones Factiva and D&B Hoovers flesh out format economics, gross margins, and store-count additions that secondary sources often leave blank. The sources named here illustrate our wider evidence set; many other verified documents were consulted to round out the picture.
Market-Sizing & Forecasting
The model begins with a top-down reconstruction of national retail sales, converting official local-currency series to USD and aligning them with household spending and disposable-income growth. These totals are then pressure-tested through selective bottom-up checks on listed retailers' revenue, sample average-selling-price × volume math, and mall floor-space additions before the final number is locked. Key variables like e-commerce penetration, wage inflation, food price shifts, urban population share, and store-opening pipelines feed a multivariate regression, while scenario analysis captures policy or supply-chain shocks.
Where bottom-up gaps appear (for example, in markets with sparse reporting), we apply region-specific penetration ratios that have been validated during expert calls, thereby preventing over or under estimation.
Data Validation & Update Cycle
Outputs pass a three-layer review that screens for variance against historical run rates, peer ratios, and external economic indicators. Any anomaly loops back to source re-checks before sign-off. Reports refresh every twelve months, and material events, such as currency moves, tax shifts, or major M&A, trigger an interim update so clients receive the latest calibrated view.
Why Mordor's Retail Industry Size & Share Analysis Baseline Commands Reliability
Published figures often diverge because researchers choose different channel scopes, currency conversions, and refresh cadences, and because some models lean heavily on untested assumptions.
Key gap drivers include whether informal kiosks are counted, how online cross-border sales are apportioned, and if aggressive same-store-sales multipliers are applied for fast-growing regions. Mordor's study fixes exchange rates at the average of the reporting year, excludes wholesale pass-through revenue, and rolls forecasts every quarter, minimizing drift.
Benchmark comparison
| Market Size | Anonymized source | Primary gap driver |
|---|---|---|
| USD 27.26 trillion | Mordor Intelligence | - |
| USD 34.86 trillion | Regional Consultancy A | Includes business-to-business resale and applies static 2022 exchange rates |
| USD 25.00 trillion | Global Consultancy B | Omits online cross-border transactions and uses conservative e-commerce growth multipliers |
These contrasts show that, by selecting a balanced scope and refreshing inputs frequently, Mordor Intelligence delivers numbers clients can trace to transparent variables and reproduce with confidence.
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Key Questions Answered in the Report
How big is the Retail Industry?
The retail industry size is expected to reach USD 35.18 trillion in 2025 and grow at a CAGR of 7.65% to reach USD 50.86 trillion by 2030.
Which product category is growing fastest?
Pharmaceuticals & Health is on track for a 10.01% CAGR through 2030, outpacing all other categories.
How large is online commerce compared with physical formats?
Supermarkets/Hypermarkets hold 36.63% of global retail market size in 2024, but Online & Mobile Commerce will expand at an 11.31% CAGR, the fastest among all channels.
Which region contributes the most to retail sales growth?
Asia-Pacific posts the highest regional CAGR at 9.19% to 2030, driven by urbanisation, mobile adoption, and rising middle-class income.
Who are the top competitors in global retail?
Walmart, Amazon, Costco, Schwarz Group, and Alibaba collectively dominate sales and set technological benchmarks for the broader market.
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