Middle East And Africa Chocolate Market Size & Share Analysis - Growth Trends And Forecast (2025 - 2030)

Middle East And Africa Chocolate Market Trends and Insights

Rising demand for premium and artisanal chocolates

In GCC cities and South African metros, affluent households are increasingly gravitating towards premium offerings. They're opting for single-origin bars, camel-milk recipes, and craft lines that follow the bean-to-bar philosophy. These premium products command a price premium of 30-50% over mainstream tablets. Brands bolster their authenticity through provenance storytelling and halal certification. This strategy has enabled premium labels to outpace the market average by 240 basis points. Take Mirzam, for example. They weave heritage narratives around Ethiopian or Tanzanian cocoa, securing duty-free listings in the process. Meanwhile, Al Nassma distinguishes itself by transforming camel milk into unique flavors, a feat that's challenging for global giants to replicate. This premium surge acts as a buffer for some manufacturers against commodity price spikes. Their loyal clientele willingly pays higher shelf prices for these limited-edition runs. In response, competitors are either making acquisitions or launching artisanal SKUs, strategically timed for seasonal gifting opportunities.

Gifting peaks during Ramadan, Eid and wedding seasons

In 2024, Ramadan and Eid accounted for 45-53% of the annual chocolate gifting in Saudi Arabia and the UAE^{[1]Source: Visa Foundation, " The bustling Ramadan night-time economy" , usa.visa.com}. This trend has heightened the urgency for manufacturers to stock up their inventories months in advance. Additionally, wedding seasons in the region trigger another surge in demand, as ornate favor boxes gain prominence as a social currency. While Patchi adeptly adjusts its production schedules and Arabic-calligraphy gift sets to align with these peak times, smaller brands grapple with the challenge of unsold stock, finding it difficult to repurpose their seasonal offerings. This cash-flow unpredictability compels companies to seek extended payment terms from retailers. In contrast, multinational corporations capitalize on their global supply networks, strategically dispersing excess inventory across various markets.

E-commerce apps’ dark-store model boosting impulse sales

Quick-commerce platforms like Talabat, Noon, and Checkers Sixty60 are turning late-night cravings into completed baskets with their promise of 15-minute delivery. This push has driven online penetration in the UAE, projecting chocolate transactions to hit 50% by 2024, a significant leap from the low single digits just five years prior. These platforms rely on dark stores, which are strategically located warehouses designed to stock high-velocity SKUs, ensuring faster delivery times and a seamless customer experience. This shift has moved product visibility from traditional physical shelves to app search results, fundamentally altering consumer purchasing behavior. In South Africa, the online grocery market is set to expand significantly, with its value projected to rise from USD 22.3 million in 2025 to USD 59.1 million by 2029. This growth highlights the scalability of the channel and its potential to capture a larger share of the grocery market. To adapt to this evolving landscape, brands are now investing in sponsored placements and optimizing metadata, extending their focus beyond just end-cap displays. These strategies are becoming essential for maintaining visibility and ensuring they remain top-of-mind for consumers in an increasingly digital marketplace.

Mandatory front-of-pack “high-sugar” labels in Saudi and UAE

Starting mid-2025, Saudi Arabia's SFDA and the UAE's climate ministry will mandate front-of-pack warning icons on products that exceed 15g of sugar per 100g^{[2]Source: United States Dairy Export Council, " Saudi Arabia Proposes Salt and Sugar Upper Limits in Foods" , usdec.org}. This regulation aims to address rising health concerns related to high sugar consumption and encourage healthier consumer choices. Following similar moves in Chile and the UK, which saw sugary snack sales plummet by double digits within the first that market's first 18 months of implementation, many brands are reformulating their products to comply with the new guidelines. In a strategic move, Ferrero and Lindt have rolled out 70% cocoa bars, positioning their dark chocolate lines as guilt-free indulgences to sidestep label penalties. However, brands that can't adapt to using stevia, erythritol, or absorb the costs of shrinking portions might find their profit margins squeezed and risk losing valuable shelf space, potentially impacting their market presence and competitiveness.

Rising health consciousness and awareness of obesity/diabetes risks

In 2024, Saudi Arabia reported an adult obesity rate of 27.8%, while the UAE noted that 67.9% of its population was classified as overweight^{[3]Source: World Health Organization, " Epidemiology of obesity and control interventions in Saudi Arabia" , emro.who.int}. These alarming statistics have spurred government campaigns in both nations, particularly targeting sugary foods. In response, consumers are adjusting their habits: they're downsizing portion sizes, gravitating towards dark chocolate, and opting for alternative snacks such as nuts, seeds, and low-sugar bars. Given the historical taxation on carbonated drinks, there's growing speculation about potential levies on confectionery items, which could further impact consumer behavior and market dynamics. This has led many brands to hasten their reformulation efforts, focusing on reducing sugar content and introducing healthier product lines. While premium buyers indulge in chocolate as an acceptable luxury, mainstream consumers are reducing their purchase frequency due to health concerns and potential cost increases. This shift presents a pronounced volume risk for brands targeting the mass market, compelling them to reassess their strategies to maintain competitiveness.

Competition from traditional sweets and other snacks

In the Middle East, cultural rituals celebrate regional favorites like dates, kunafa, baklava, and halva. Annually, the region consumes over 1 million tons of dates, reflecting their deep-rooted significance in traditional practices and daily life. These sweets are not only integral to cultural identity but also compete for the same gifting occasions, often being associated with perceived health benefits. Freshly baked kunafa, with its warm, rich texture and sensory appeal, offers an experience that packaged chocolate struggles to rival. This unique appeal resonates strongly with consumers, granting small local producers a distinct advantage during festivals and special occasions. Although chocolate's branding, convenience, and shelf stability cater to impulse snacking and modern gifting trends, heritage treats like kunafa, baklava, and halva dominate high-value ceremonial gifts. These traditional sweets symbolize cultural pride and are often chosen to honor significant events and relationships, reinforcing their enduring relevance in the market.

Segment Analysis

By Type: Dark Chocolate Gains as Health Narratives Shift Preferences

In 2024, milk and white chocolate dominated the Middle East and Africa chocolate market, accounting for 68.71% of sales. This stronghold underscores the deep-seated consumer affinity for these flavors, especially in mass retail and gifting contexts. Yet, as health-conscious trends rise, spotlighting sugar content, there's a subtle shift. Shoppers are gravitating towards higher-cocoa options. In response, white chocolate is infusing regional flavors like saffron and rose-water, ensuring it remains relevant amidst the sugar scrutiny. This blend of tradition and innovative flavors helps milk and white chocolates maintain their stature, even as market dynamics evolve.

Dark chocolate is emerging as the fastest-growing segment, projected to grow at a 7.24% CAGR, outpacing the broader Middle East and Africa chocolate market. This surge is fueled by heightened awareness of cardiovascular health and regulatory emphasis on sugar content, steering consumers towards bars with 70% cocoa and above. Premium brands, such as Lindt and Mirzam, are capitalizing on this trend, offering single-origin dark ranges that highlight their provenance and health benefits. Concurrently, mainstream producers are experimenting with sugar substitutes in dark chocolates, aiming to cater to both price and taste-conscious consumers. With these strategies aligning, dark chocolate is poised to seize a larger share of the market's value, even as milk and white chocolates continue to lead in volume.

By Form: Tablets Dominate, Yet Pralines Capture Gifting Premiums

In 2024, tablets dominate the chocolate market in the Middle East and Africa, making up 82.43% of the volume. Their alignment with checkout merchandising and quick-commerce fulfillment boosts their popularity. Standardized sizes and consistent price points ensure tablets are pivotal for maintaining steady sales in supermarkets and on delivery apps. This format drives volume-centric strategies, promoting accessibility and encouraging repeat purchases. Tablets are particularly effective in catering to a broad consumer base, as they offer affordability and convenience, making them a staple in everyday consumption. Consequently, tablets serve as the primary growth engine for many regional chocolate brands, even as premium formats gain traction.

Pralines, on the other hand, are the market's rising star, with projections of a 5.95% CAGR. They command price premiums of 50–100%, particularly during peak times like Ramadan and wedding seasons. These elevated margins bolster brand profitability, even with pralines holding a smaller volume share. Luxury brands, such as Patchi, heavily invest in praline assortments, using them to cement their premium image and gifting appeal. Pralines are often associated with indulgence and exclusivity, making them a preferred choice for special occasions and high-end gifting. Thus, while tablets anchor brands with scale and reach, pralines carve out a niche, emphasizing differentiation and seasonal value.

By Price Range: Premium Segment Outpaces Mass Despite Smaller Base

In the Middle East and Africa, mass-priced chocolate dominates the chocolate market, making up 67.15% of sales and driving the overall category's scale. This tier's prevalence is due to its affordability, widespread distribution in supermarkets and convenience stores, and its alignment with daily consumption habits. Global giants leverage this tier to achieve high-volume sales, especially in the region's price-sensitive areas. To capitalize on the region's upgrading consumer behavior without jeopardizing their mass base, many are rolling out "premium-lite" ranges. These offerings elevate brand perception while remaining within reach of the average consumer's budget. The "premium-lite" strategy allows companies to bridge the gap between mass and premium segments, offering products that appeal to aspirational consumers while maintaining affordability. This approach helps brands retain their core customer base while attracting new consumers seeking a more refined experience.

Meanwhile, the premium tier is witnessing the fastest growth, boasting an 8.13% CAGR. This surge is attributed to income stratification and the emergence of affluent clusters in cities such as Dubai, Riyadh, and Johannesburg. Shoppers in these urban centers value craftsmanship, origin narratives, and the aesthetics of gifting. This focus allows brands to command significantly higher margins per unit. Furthermore, premium consumers have a strong affinity for limited editions and boutique experiences, enhancing brand loyalty and justifying elevated prices. The premium segment's growth is also fueled by increasing consumer awareness of high-quality ingredients and ethical sourcing, which resonate strongly with affluent buyers. However, companies that attempt to navigate both the mass and premium tiers face the risk of brand dilution. This challenge necessitates a strategic decision: pursue a cost-leadership scale or distinctly position as artisanal or luxury.

By Ingredient Type: Plant-Based and Single-Origin Gain Traction

In the Middle East and Africa, dairy-based chocolate leads the chocolate market, thanks to its familiar taste, creamy texture, and prominent presence in mainstream tablets, bars, and gift assortments. Supermarkets and convenience stores widely stock it, and it resonates strongly with traditional taste preferences. Single-origin dairy bars, priced between USD 8–12, appeal to affluent consumers by emphasizing their unique provenance and traceability. These bars often highlight the origin of the cocoa beans, creating a premium perception among consumers who value authenticity and quality. Yet, this focus on specific cocoa origins poses a risk: supply constraints and market volatility can jeopardize profit margins and product availability. Additionally, fluctuations in cocoa prices and geopolitical factors in cocoa-producing regions further exacerbate these challenges, making supply chain management critical for manufacturers.

Plant-based chocolate is rapidly emerging as the fastest-growing segment. Its ascent is fueled by the convergence of vegan, lactose-free, and halal positioning in major markets. Brands leverage oat and almond milk alternatives to cater to lactose-intolerant and ethically-conscious consumers, all while preserving indulgent flavors. These alternatives not only address dietary restrictions but also align with the growing consumer preference for sustainable and environmentally friendly products. Tightening halal documentation rules play to the advantage of these products. Regulators like ESMA are leaning towards manufacturers with stringent, auditable supply chains. Consequently, companies boasting robust certification and traceability systems are poised to expand their plant-based offerings, aligning with both regulatory standards and consumer demands. This shift also opens opportunities for innovation in flavors and formats, enabling brands to differentiate themselves in an increasingly competitive market.

By Distribution Channel: Online Retail Surges as Dark Stores Redefine Convenience

Supermarkets dominate the chocolate market in the Middle East and Africa, commanding a 44.13% share by offering a wide range of products, promotions, and price points all in one location. This dominance underscores the importance of physical aisle visibility, secondary displays, and in-store promotions in brand strategy. Supermarkets provide consumers with the convenience of accessing diverse chocolate options, catering to both everyday consumption and special occasions. Specialty stores and duty-free outlets cater to luxury gifting, offering premium and exclusive chocolate products that appeal to high-end consumers. Meanwhile, convenience stores serve as impulse-buy spots near workplaces, transit hubs, and fuel stations, targeting on-the-go customers with smaller, ready-to-eat chocolate packs. Collectively, these brick-and-mortar outlets maintain a steady flow of sales, even as online channels grow.

Online retail is rapidly emerging as the leading channel, growing at a 7.12% CAGR, indicating a fundamental shift in chocolate discovery and purchasing. Brands now prioritize sponsored placements and algorithm-driven search optimization, equating their importance to traditional eye-level shelf space. The convenience of online shopping, coupled with personalized recommendations and exclusive online discounts, is driving consumer adoption of digital platforms. Given the region's extreme climates, ensuring fast delivery of chocolate necessitates thermal-shielded packaging and enhanced last-mile logistics, favoring larger players with the resources to invest. As these digital capabilities evolve, online platforms are set to play a pivotal role in determining brand visibility, pricing strategies, and customer loyalty in the Middle East and Africa's chocolate market.

Geography Analysis

Saudi Arabia, accounting for 43.12% of 2024's revenue, capitalizes on its high per-capita incomes and cultural norms that elevate chocolate's status, placing it alongside dates during Ramadan and Eid celebrations, as reported by VISA.COM. The country's strong gifting culture and preference for premium products further bolster its chocolate market. While mandatory sugar labels set to roll out in July 2025 might curtail sales of mass-market tablets, they are expected to steer demand towards premium dark bars, which are perceived as healthier alternatives. The UAE, echoing Saudi trends, sees its tourism-driven duty-free channels amplifying the allure of premium offerings, with international travelers contributing significantly to sales. Both Qatar and Kuwait, despite their smaller sizes, mirror the GCC's wealth and penchant for premium products, driven by high disposable incomes and a growing inclination toward luxury goods. Meanwhile, Egypt boasts a larger populace, but currency challenges and inflationary pressures temper its per-capita spending, limiting the market's growth potential.

South Africa, enjoying a 6.24% CAGR, attributes its growth to rising urban incomes and the deepening reach of e-commerce, both of which are fostering a shift towards premium products. The increasing availability of online platforms has made premium chocolates more accessible to a broader audience. While its per-capita consumption lags behind the GCC, it outpaces its sub-Saharan counterparts, positioning South Africa as a bridge between mass-market volumes and premium explorations. Though Nigeria and Kenya show promise for the long haul, challenges like infrastructure deficits, high tariffs, and limited cold chain logistics are hindering their immediate mainstream adoption. However, their young and growing populations present significant opportunities for future market expansion.

In summary, while GCC markets offer short-term profitability, they grapple with regulatory and health challenges, such as the upcoming sugar labeling regulations. In contrast, African nations, despite their hurdles, present a demographic advantage in the long run, with rising urbanization and a growing middle class driving demand. Across the chocolate landscape of the Middle East and Africa, essentials like flavor localization, halal adherence, and a robust omni-channel strategy are paramount to capturing market share and ensuring sustained growth.