Mexico Plant-based Food And Beverages Market Size & Share Analysis - Growth Trends And Forecast (2025 - 2030)

Mexico Plant-Based Food And Beverages Market Trends and Insights

Government Nutritional Labelling (NOM-051) Favouring Clean Labels

NOM-051 mandates front-of-package warnings for foods high in calories, sodium, sugar, and fats. Plant-based dairy and meat substitutes, often sidestepping these warnings, gain prime shelf space and consumer trust due to their perceived health benefits and regulatory compliance. In 2024, authorities immobilized 15 non-compliant beverages, underscoring the strict enforcement and non-negotiable nature of the regulations. This strict approach signals to manufacturers the importance of adhering to the guidelines to avoid penalties and reputational damage. Brands adeptly formulating to dodge warnings not only fortify their position in domestic aisles but also enhance their allure in North American export markets, where clean labels and regulatory compliance are increasingly valued. This regulation has catalyzed industry-wide reformulations, steering research and development towards simpler ingredients and reduced sodium content, which align with evolving consumer preferences for healthier options. Looking ahead, compliance with NOM-051 is poised to shift from a distinguishing factor to a standard expectation, pushing slower manufacturers to swiftly update their legacy products to remain competitive and relevant in the market.

Expansion of Domestic Flexitarian Consumer Base

Survey data reveals that 54% of Mexican shoppers are on the lookout for plant-based alternatives. This trend is particularly pronounced among millennials and Gen Z, especially in metropolitan areas, where dietary preferences are rapidly evolving. Mexicans, already familiar with plant-forward staples like quelites, nopales, and legumes, are now embracing modern alternatives such as plant-based dairy and meat substitutes. This shift broadens the market's reach, extending beyond just vegan and vegetarian consumers to include a growing number of flexitarians. Flexitarian shoppers, who tend to have higher disposable incomes, show a readiness to invest in premium, novel SKUs, making this segment highly lucrative for manufacturers. Urbanization, coupled with increasing levels of tertiary education, solidifies this dietary shift by fostering greater awareness of health and sustainability benefits associated with plant-based diets. As flexitarianism spreads to secondary cities, companies that adapt their taste profiles to resonate with regional cuisines stand to gain significant volume, all while minimizing marketing expenses and leveraging local culinary preferences.

Retail Chains' Private-Label Push for Plant-Based SKUs

Walmart Mexico has joined the "Hecho en México" campaign, marking a strategic pivot towards domestic sourcing for its private-label products. This move could lead to cost reductions and enhanced control over the supply chain for its plant-based offerings^{[1]Source: Gobierno de Mexico," Strategy for Equitable and Sustainable Economic Development for Shared Prosperity", embamex.sre.gob.mx} .Walmart is investing USD 6 billion in a 2025 capex program, which includes two AI-driven distribution centers. These centers aim to expedite the replenishment cycles for chilled, plant-based products. Meanwhile, Chedraui is set to unveil 144 new stores, and Soriana is hastening the rollout of smaller-format outlets. These moves are strategically expanding shelf space for exclusive private-label products. By penetrating the private-label market, retailers can offer more affordable prices, reducing brand premiums and simultaneously enhancing their profit margins. The "Hecho en México" initiative promotes domestic sourcing, further cutting logistics costs and bolstering price competitiveness. Retail media networks, like Walmart Connect, are amplifying the visibility of these proprietary labels, both in-store and online. This surge in visibility is intensifying the pressure on established brands, prompting them to innovate or risk losing their market share.

Rising Dairy Allergies and Lactose-Intolerance Awareness

In Mexico, a significant portion of the population, especially indigenous groups, grapples with lactose intolerance. This has led to a consistent demand for lactose-free products. Plant-based alternatives like milks, yogurts, and cheeses cater to this demand, allowing producers to sidestep the costs associated with enzymatic treatments for lactose-free dairy. Health authorities and NGOs, through educational campaigns, have heightened awareness, effectively translating medical guidance into consumer behavior. These campaigns emphasize the health benefits of plant-based options, such as improved digestion and reduced risk of allergic reactions, further encouraging adoption. The narrative surrounding allergies aligns with broader wellness trends, including the growing preference for natural and sustainable food choices, solidifying plant-based dairy as the primary choice for newcomers. In major cities, manufacturers focusing on calcium fortification and familiar flavors have seen impressive repeat purchases, as these attributes resonate strongly with health-conscious consumers seeking both nutrition and taste.

Price Premium Versus Animal Products

At retail, plant-based items are priced 30-50% higher than their animal counterparts, limiting their trial among cost-sensitive households. This price disparity makes it challenging for these products to gain traction in markets where affordability is a key purchasing factor. Economic challenges often lead consumers to opt for cheaper staples, such as cooking oils and spreads, further impacting the adoption of plant-based alternatives. In response, retailers are introducing value-driven private-label ranges to cater to budget-conscious consumers, while start-ups are streamlining formulations to reduce ingredient costs without compromising product quality. With nearshored production and Plan México incentives on the horizon, scale efficiencies are expected to follow, potentially lowering costs over time. However, for now, the premium positioning of many SKUs restricts them to affluent urban areas, limiting their reach in the mass market and slowing broader adoption.

Supply-Chain Dependence on Imported Pea and Soy Concentrates

Producers import over two-thirds of their protein inputs, making them vulnerable to currency fluctuations and freight volatility. This dependency on imports exposes the supply chain to significant risks, particularly during periods of economic instability or geopolitical tensions. Additionally, trade tensions with primary supplier nations heighten tariff risks, which could further increase costs for producers. In a bid to bolster domestic production and reduce reliance on imports, the government has allocated MXN 54 billion for local crop processing^{[2]Source: Gobierno de Mexico," Mexico Advances Food Sovereignty Through International Cooperation and Strategic Partnerships", www.gob.mx}. This funding targets the establishment of extraction facilities for amaranth, chia, and beans, aiming to create a self-sufficient supply chain and potentially displace imports within five years. Companies that adopt contract farming and vertical integration early on could reap cost benefits, secure raw material availability, and mitigate risks associated with external dependencies. However, firms heavily dependent on imports might face squeezed margins if currency weaknesses persist, further challenging their profitability and competitiveness.

Segment Analysis

By Product Type: Dairy Alternatives Consolidate Leadership

In 2024, plant-based dairy dominated Mexico's plant-based food and beverage market, accounting for 43.18% of total sales. This dominance is largely attributed to the country's high lactose intolerance rates, prompting many consumers to turn to dairy alternatives. Additionally, compliance with NOM-051 labeling standards has smoothed the path for market entry. Producers of plant-based dairy often emphasize clean labels and functional ingredients. Within the plant-based dairy realm, milks lead in retail volume, while yogurts and creamers have found their way into traditional Mexican dishes. This adaptability has led to a growing trend of households swapping conventional dairy for almond, oat, or soy alternatives in both cooking and snacking. Looking ahead, the strong retail presence of plant-based dairy, combined with its appeal to health-conscious consumers, suggests it will continue to thrive, even as competition intensifies.

Forecasts indicate that the meat substitutes segment will be the fastest-growing in Mexico's plant-based sector, with an anticipated CAGR of 11.13% through 2030. The surge is fueled by the rising presence of plant-based burgers, tacos, and other comfort foods in fast-casual and quick-service restaurant menus. This heightened visibility has normalized meat-free dining, broadening its appeal from niche vegan circles to a larger flexitarian audience. Manufacturers are turning to pea protein formulations, prized for their nutritional balance, texture, and adaptability to local seasonings. Innovations tailored to Mexican tastes, like the use of authentic spices, herbs, and regional chiles, are bolstering consumer acceptance and loyalty. With urban consumers increasingly seeking protein-rich yet sustainable options, meat substitutes are set to outpace other plant-based categories, buoyed by robust foodservice backing and growing home consumption.

Note: Segment shares of all individual segments available upon report purchase

By Protein Source: Soy’s Leadership vs. Pea’s Growth Momentum

In 2024, soy protein emerged as the dominant player in the plant-based protein arena. This leadership position is largely attributed to soy's entrenched presence in both global and regional plant-based formulations, making its taste and texture familiar to consumers. Beyond its palatability, soy protein boasts a complete amino acid profile, appealing to those seeking nutritional parity with animal proteins. Its versatility enables seamless incorporation into a range of products, from milks and yogurts to meat substitutes and baked goods. Established supply chains and relatively low raw material costs bolster the prominence of soy-based alternatives in both retail and foodservice sectors. Looking ahead, while soy is poised to retain its leadership due to its scalability, it is increasingly contending with emerging plant-protein bases that tout allergen-friendliness and cleaner labels.

Pea protein is set to outpace other plant-based sources in Mexico, forecasting a robust CAGR of 9.74% from 2025 to 2030. Its allure lies in its non-allergenic, non-GMO nature, setting it apart from soy and appealing to health-conscious consumers. Pea protein's unique ability to mimic meat texture has positioned it as the go-to choice for next-gen burgers, tacos, and other protein-rich dishes. Local brands are capitalizing on its versatility, infusing traditional Mexican flavors and seasonings to craft products that resonate with local palates^{[3]Source: Science Direct," Do Mexican consumers really care about hen welfare? Understanding their attitudes, constraints, and willingness to pay for cage-free eggs", www.sciencedirect.com}. Additionally, the growing interest from sports nutrition and wellness circles has broadened pea protein's reach, finding its way into beverages, powders, and nutrition bars. With supply chains becoming more robust and costs on a downward trend, pea protein is on the brink of mainstream acceptance, poised to carve out a larger slice of the plant-based protein market.

By Distribution Channel: Off-Trade Retains Scale, On-Trade Gains Pace

In 2024, off-trade channels dominated Mexico's plant-based food and beverage sector, accounting for 68.51% of total turnover. Supermarkets played a pivotal role in this trend, expanding their chilled aisles to prominently feature plant-based dairy products, meat substitutes, and ready-to-drink beverages alongside traditional offerings. By harnessing loyalty apps and targeted digital promotions, these supermarkets not only fostered repeat purchases but also deepened penetration of plant-based products among mainstream consumers. Convenience stores bolstered the off-trade's strength, catering to urban consumers on the move, particularly with small-pack beverages and nutrition bars. Impulse purchases further fueled the off-trade segment, benefiting both established brands and newcomers. Looking ahead, the off-trade segment is poised to remain a growth anchor, bolstered by Mexico's affinity for brick-and-mortar shopping and the expansion of modern retail networks, which are increasingly making plant-based products accessible in semi-urban locales.

While currently smaller, the on-trade channel is set to outpace others, with a projected CAGR of 9.65% through 2030. Restaurants, hotels, and cafés are at the forefront, introducing plant-based options that resonate with health-conscious diners, flexitarians, and eco-conscious tourists. By innovating menus with familiar formats like enchiladas, tortas, and tamales, substituting animal proteins with plant-based alternatives, they've seamlessly integrated these dishes into the culinary landscape. This strategy has not only reduced hesitance but also framed plant-based meals as authentic staples rather than foreign novelties. The burgeoning on-trade segment mirrors a larger foodservice trend, emphasizing not just taste but also wellness and environmental consciousness. With foodservice operators increasingly collaborating with prominent plant-based brands, the on-trade is set to play a pivotal role in enhancing consumer acceptance and experiential marketing within Mexico's expanding plant-based landscape.

Geography Analysis

In Mexico, metropolitan hubs like Mexico City, Guadalajara, and Monterrey dominate the plant-based foods and beverages market, capturing over 60% of the share. This dominance is attributed to these cities' higher incomes, progressive consumer behaviors, and well-established modern retail networks. These urban centers not only support premium pricing but also encourage frequent trials of new product formats. Meanwhile, the Bajío industrial corridor is emerging as a key production hub. With AI-enabled distribution centers set to launch in León and Querétaro, regional lead times are expected to shrink significantly. Additionally, northern border states are reaping the benefits of nearshoring, drawing U.S. investments into protein isolate facilities that cater to both domestic needs and export demands.

Secondary cities like Puebla, Tijuana, and Mérida are witnessing double-digit growth rates, albeit from a smaller starting point. This growth is fueled by the expansion of cold-chain logistics and the success of private-label SKUs reaching significant value thresholds. While southern states remain underpenetrated in the market, they hold untapped potential. This demand is being unlocked through investments from Plan México in agriculture and a push for rural retail expansion. Coastal areas, known for their tourism, are increasingly adopting plant-based menus in hotels and restaurants, leading to a surge in foodservice spending during peak travel times.

Agricultural states like Sinaloa and Sonora, with climates conducive to legume cultivation, are aligning with government initiatives aimed at ingredient sovereignty. The establishment of local extraction plants not only promises to reduce freight emissions but also aims to enhance rural employment. This development could create a positive feedback loop, fostering wider geographic adoption of these practices.