LED Phosphors Market Size & Share Analysis - Growth Trends and Forecast (2026 - 2031)

Global LED Phosphors Market Trends and Insights

Surge in Global Smart-Lighting Deployments

Municipal retrofits from high-pressure sodium to connected LED arrays are amplifying orders for multi-phosphor blends capable of delivering correlated color temperatures spanning 2 700 K-6 500 K while supporting dim-to-warm control algorithms. North American cities installed more than 8.5 million smart streetlight nodes in 2024, a 34% year-over-year increase, and similar initiatives are scaling across Europe and Asia Pacific. These projects elevate demand for phosphors with low thermal drift and tight binning tolerances, attributes now embedded into most public tender specifications. Smart-building upgrades add further pull, with intelligent lighting controls expected to cut global lighting electricity use 19% by 2030.^{[1]International Energy Agency, “Energy Efficiency 2025,” iea.org}As ultraviolet disinfection modules become standard in healthcare and hospitality fixtures, inventories of UV-capable phosphors have tightened, reinforcing a favorable price trend for niche suppliers.

Government Energy-Efficiency Mandates for Solid-State Lighting

Standards adopted in the United States, Europe, and China since 2024 require efficacy levels that only high-conversion phosphor systems can deliver. The U.S. floor for commercial luminaires moved to 150 lm/W in January 2025, pushing OEMs toward YAG:Ce and nitride red blends that minimize Stokes losses. Europe’s updated Ecodesign rules added color-quality metrics, effectively sidelining low-CRI phosphor mixes, while China linked subsidies to 180 lm/W thresholds, accelerating demand for narrow-band green and red emitters. Collectively, these mandates compress the addressable space for low-performance chemistries and accelerate the LED phosphors market shift toward premium formulations.

Expanding Display-Panel Production Capacities in Asia

New Gen 8-plus fabs in China and South Korea are ramping mini-LED backlight output, each premium television incorporating up to 20,000 LED chips and adjacent phosphor or quantum-dot films. LG Display earmarked KRW 3.2 trillion (USD 2.4 billion) to scale mini-LED and micro-LED lines by 2027, creating long-term anchor contracts for phosphor suppliers able to guarantee sub-1 nm wavelength variation and superior thermal stability. These capacity additions underpin double-digit volume growth for the LED phosphors market despite maturing handset sales elsewhere.

Quantum-Dot/LED Phosphor Hybrid Solutions Gaining Traction

Indium-phosphide quantum dots layered over conventional phosphor films now deliver ≥100% DCI-P3 color gamut with improved heat tolerance. Automotive head-up displays and professional monitors are early beneficiaries, while reductions in blue-light hazard of nearly 18% compared with pure phosphor systems strengthen the technology’s safety proposition. Module suppliers shipped more than 2 million hybrid units to European automakers in 2024, a trend that signals durable long-cycle pull for specialty red and green phosphors tailored to partner with quantum-dot spectra.

Volatility in Rare-Earth Oxide Supply and Pricing

China supplied 70% of global rare-earth output and more than 90% of refining volume in 2024, a concentration that enabled export quotas to lift europium oxide spot prices 22% in early 2025. Phosphor makers outside Asia absorbed raw-material cost spikes that narrowed margins or forced reformulations with inferior CRI. Although new Australian and U.S. refining projects are scheduled for full capacity by late 2026, combined output covers less than 8% of forecast demand, leaving the LED phosphors market exposed to geopolitical shocks.

High Cost of High-CRI Narrow-Band Red Phosphors

Nitride-based red phosphors such as (Ca,Sr)AlSiN₃:Eu²⁺ cost roughly USD 180 per kg, quadruple broad-band garnet alternatives, due to high-temperature, high-pressure synthesis and lower quantum efficiencies. Manufacturers therefore load more material to reach target lumens, inflating bill-of-materials costs and restraining penetration in budget lighting lines.^{[2]Illuminating Engineering Society, “TM-30-24: Color Quality Metrics,” ies.org} Manganese-activated fluoride candidates promise lower synthesis temperatures but require hermetic packaging that re-introduces cost penalties, keeping the affordability gap wide at least through mid-forecast.

Segment Analysis

By Phosphor Material: Nitride Chemistries Anchor High-Performance Tiers

Nitride materials controlled 40.32% of LED phosphors market share in 2025 and are projected to register an 11.01% CAGR through 2031. The LED phosphors market size for nitride blends is expanding on the back of adaptive-driving-beam headlamps and premium indoor fixtures that demand tight wavelength stability at junction temperatures above 150 °C. Garnet YAG:Ce remains dominant in cost-sensitive lamps thanks to mature high-yield processes and quantum efficiencies exceeding 85%.

Process innovations that shrink particle-size distributions and integrate phosphor-on-chip deposition enable brighter, thinner mini-LED packages, widening the application envelope. RoHS cadmium caps enacted in Europe during 2024 pushed OEMs to migrate from older silicate reds toward cadmium-free nitride equivalents despite higher costs, reinforcing nitride leadership across cross-border product lines.

Note: Segment shares of all individual segments available upon report purchase

By Emission Color: Red Phosphors Outpace Warm White in Growth

Warm white blends held 36.81% of 2025 shipments, mirroring their ubiquity in residential and office lighting. However, red phosphors are forecast to expand at an 11.92% CAGR as controlled-environment agriculture and medical phototherapy specify narrow-band emissions between 600 nm and 700 nm to boost biological efficacy. The LED phosphors market size linked to red products is therefore set to grow faster than any other color segment.

Indoor farms, which added 28% more square footage between 2020 and 2024, are shifting toward spectra-optimized fixtures that elevate photosynthetic photon flux density per watt.^{[3]U.S. Department of Agriculture, “Census of Horticulture Specialties 2024,” nass.usda.gov} In human-centric lighting, tunable white engines blend warm and cool packages alongside red boosts to emulate daylight rhythms; CRI levels above 95 across a 2 700 K–6 500 K range are now commercial reality, underlining the revenue upside for specialty red suppliers.

By Application: Horticulture and Medical Lighting Surge Ahead

LCD TVs captured 32.98% of 2025 value, yet horticulture and medical installations represent the fastest-growing slice of the LED phosphors market at 12.52% CAGR to 2031. Tailored red-and-blue arrays help vertical farms cut HVAC loads while maximizing yield, shifting demand from commodity warm white mixes toward higher-margin spectra-tuned formulations.

Medical device clearances for LED-based phototherapy climbed 37% between 2022 and 2024 fda.gov, spurring purchases of precise blue phosphors that sustain 450 nm–470 nm peaks under thermal stress. Automotive adaptive-driving-beam systems add further upside by embedding dozens of high-flux phosphor-coated LEDs per module, locking in multiyear supply commitments at premium pricing.

Note: Segment shares of all individual segments available upon report purchase

By End-Use Industry: Specialty and Medical Device Makers Lead Growth

Consumer electronics OEMs absorbed 43.44% of LED phosphors market size in 2025, yet specialty and medical device manufacturers are tracking a 12.01% CAGR through 2031 as they chase high-margin, performance-critical niches. Surgical luminaires, endoscopy probes, and diagnostic systems now specify CRI less than 95, pushing adoption of nitride reds and high-purity blues.

Automotive OEMs enlarge their per-vehicle spend by moving from dual-pixel to matrix headlamps with up to 100 addressable zones, each requiring rugged phosphor layers that withstand vibration and 150 °C junction temperatures. Lighting fixture brands facing rare-earth volatility are rationalizing supplier rosters, often awarding multi-year exclusivity to vendors offering integrated refining or recycling capabilities, a trend that cements share for entrenched players.

Geography Analysis

Asia Pacific accounted for 51.07% of 2025 revenues and will expand at a 13.09% CAGR, reinforcing its status as the epicenter of LED and display manufacturing. Cost advantages stem from co-locating rare-earth refining and phosphor synthesis, with Chinese producers paying USD 340 per kg for europium oxide versus USD 465 per kg for North American importers.^{[4]China Rare Earth Industry Association, “Market Report January 2025,” cre.net.cn}The LED phosphors market size in South Korea is poised to double by 2028 as mini-LED backlight ramps at LG Display and Samsung Display absorb incremental tonnage.

Japan leverages longstanding materials science depth to supply ultra-narrow nitride reds for automotive and premium lighting niches, commanding price premiums but limited volume. North America and Europe show slower unit growth yet richer mix, driven by mandates that phase out sub-150 lm/W luminaires. Both regions champion recycling to mitigate supply risk; the European Critical Raw Materials Act targets recovering 25% of rare-earth content from discarded lamps by 2030.

Emerging markets in the Middle East and Africa, alongside pockets of South America, add incremental volume via large-scale street-lighting and infrastructure retrofits. The United Arab Emirates completed LED upgrades on 1.2 million streetlights in 2025, trimming municipal energy use by 42%. Import tariffs and logistics complexity still temper Latin American uptake, but incentive programs in Brazil and Argentina are narrowing the affordability gap.