Human Papillomavirus Vaccine Market Size & Share Analysis - Growth Trends & Forecasts (2025 - 2030)

The Human Papillomavirus Vaccine Market is Segmented by Vaccine Type (Bivalent, Quadrivalent, and More), Indication (Cervical Cancer, Anal Cancer, Penile Cancer, and More), Distribution Channel (Public and Private), Age Group (Adults and Pediatric) and Geography (North America, Europe, Asia-Pacific, and More). The Market and Forecasts are Provided in Terms of Value (USD).

Human Papillomavirus Vaccine Market Size and Share

Image © Mordor Intelligence. Reuse requires attribution under CC BY 4.0.

Compare market size and growth of Human Papillomavirus Vaccine Market with other markets in Healthcare Industry

Human Papillomavirus Vaccine Market Analysis by Mordor Intelligence

The human papillomavirus vaccine market is valued at USD 8.98 billion in 2025 and is on track to reach USD 13.51 billion by 2030, advancing at an 8.51% CAGR. Single-dose schedules endorsed by the World Health Organization (WHO) in late-2024 [1]World Health Organization, “Single-Dose HPV Vaccine Position Paper,” who.int , a surge of low- and middle-income country (LMIC) manufacturers, and widening gender-neutral policies are redefining clinical demand patterns. The rapid uptake of nonavalent formulations, large-scale government funding commitments in India, China and the European Union, and the extension of FDA labels to cover head-and-neck cancers together sustain robust volume growth. Manufacturers are simultaneously re-tooling production for single-dose regimens and region-specific multivalent platforms, while payers negotiate tiered pricing that broadens access without eroding margins. These forces position the human papillomavirus vaccine market for sustained expansion across public programs and premium private segments worldwide.

Key Report Takeaways

  • By vaccine type, quadrivalent products led with 67.53% revenue share in 2024, while nonavalent formulations are projected to expand at a 9.24% CAGR to 2030.  
  • By indication, cervical cancer prevention held 69.98% of the human papillomavirus vaccine market share in 2024, whereas anal cancer prevention is advancing at a 9.31% CAGR through 2030.  
  • By distribution channel, public programs commanded 62.45% of the human papillomavirus vaccine market size in 2024, while private healthcare outlets are growing at 9.42% CAGR during the forecast period.  
  • By age group, adults accounted for 59.65% share of the human papillomavirus vaccine market size in 2024, yet pediatric vaccination is set to post the fastest 9.13% CAGR to 2030.  
  • By geography, North America captured 39.48% share of the human papillomavirus vaccine market in 2024, but Asia-Pacific is on course for the strongest 9.22% CAGR through 2030.  

Segment Analysis

By Vaccine Type: Nonavalent Innovation Challenges Quadrivalent Dominance

Quadrivalent vaccines retained 67.53% share in 2024, underpinning broad national program penetration. Their entrenched status supports predictable revenue flow, yet premium-priced nonavalent products are outpacing at a 9.24% CAGR. The human papillomavirus vaccine market size for nonavalent offerings is expanding strongly in North America and Europe as payers endorse wider oncogenic strain coverage. This shift also benefits middle-income consumers willing to pay for broader protection, even while procurement agencies in LMICs continue purchasing cost-efficient quadrivalent or bivalent doses.

Global clinical evidence shows Gardasil 9 delivering near-universal cervical cancer protection and 90% efficacy against other HPV-related conditions. WHO prequalification of Cecolin for single-dose schedules and Walrinvax for two-dose regimes broadens supply options, pressuring price points in the human papillomavirus vaccine market. Looking forward, region-specific multivalent candidates designed for African and Asian strain prevalence may further fragment the competitive field.

Image © Mordor Intelligence. Reuse requires attribution under CC BY 4.0.

By Indication: Cervical Cancer Prevention Expands to Male-Focused Applications

Cervical cancer prevention accounted for 69.98% of 2024 revenue thanks to entrenched public-health focus and decades of supportive data. Yet anal cancer prevention is rising fastest at 9.31% CAGR because gender-neutral policies recognize growing male disease burden. The human papillomavirus vaccine market share for cervical applications will gradually erode as non-cervical indications gain prominence, though absolute revenues continue growing.

FDA extension of Gardasil 9 to head-and-neck cancers validates expansion beyond female-centric indications and informs adult catch-up programs. Peer-reviewed data reveal a rising incidence of oropharyngeal cancer among men, catalyzing policy updates worldwide. Manufacturers are therefore repositioning value propositions toward comprehensive cancer prophylaxis that appeals to both sexes.

By Distribution Channel: Private Sector Growth Outpaces Public Programs

Public tenders controlled 62.45% of doses in 2024, dominated by Gavi, UNICEF and national ministries. Nevertheless, private outlets are posting a 9.42% CAGR as urban middle-classes seek convenience and earlier vaccination. This dual structure compels suppliers to calibrate differential pricing; for instance, Serum Institute offers Cervavac at INR 2,000 (USD 24) privately versus INR 300-400 in government schemes.

European procurement showcases efficiency, with average tender prices sliding from EUR 101.8 in 2007 to EUR 28.4 by 2017. CDC data echo payment-linked disparities, where privately insured adolescents display higher completion than Medicaid or uninsured cohorts. Future volume gains in the human papillomavirus vaccine market stem from hybrid public-private models that expand reach while protecting manufacturer margins.

Human Papillomavirus Vaccine Market: Market Share by Distribution Channel
Image © Mordor Intelligence. Reuse requires attribution under CC BY 4.0.

By Age Group: Adult Catch-Up Programs Drive Market Expansion

Adults represented 59.65% sales in 2024, reflecting legacy cohorts that missed early immunization. Catch-up demand remains strong after the CDC broadened recommendations to 27-45-year-olds, though uptake is uneven at 16% in that bracket. Conversely, pediatric programs deliver the fastest 9.13% CAGR as countries introduce vaccination at 9 years and adopt single-dose regimens.

Evidence that earlier initiation improves series completion from 47% to over 60% by age 13 guides strategy. Long-term surveillance finds 79% fewer cervical precancers among women aged 20-24 who received adolescent vaccination, reinforcing cost-effectiveness arguments. In turn, this encourages governments and insurers to fund earlier, broader coverage, cementing lifetime value within the human papillomavirus vaccine market.

Geography Analysis

North America’s 39.48% share reflects early adoption, broad insurance coverage, and ongoing gender-neutral catch-up initiatives. The United States still shows payment-linked gaps, yet Canada’s 2024 single-dose recommendation for those aged 9-20 positions it as a policy bellwether. Mexico’s participation in PAHO’s elimination roadmap promises synergies in pricing and procurement across the sub-region.

Asia-Pacific leads growth at a 9.22% CAGR, propelled by India’s fully funded girls’ program and China’s surge of domestic producers challenging Western incumbents. Merck’s 41% Q1-2025 sales decline in China highlights intensifying price competition and regulatory complexity. Japan’s shift to 9-valent vaccines for boys and girls, together with Australia’s mature elimination strategy, illustrates the diversity of policy models that collectively enlarge the human papillomavirus vaccine market size across the region.

Europe continues policy innovation through its 90% female coverage and expanding male vaccination mandate, underwritten by EUR 20 million in EU4Health funds. Competitive tenders sustain affordability without compromising supply security. The Middle East and Africa face cold-chain and hesitancy barriers, yet Nigeria’s 2024-2025 drive to reach 7.7 million girls shows that community-centric engagement can secure high utilization. In South America, PAHO’s 2025 partnership with Spanish agencies enhances access to 9-valent vaccines, while differential economics across the continent necessitate phased rollouts.

Human Papillomavirus Vaccine Market CAGR (%), Growth Rate by Region
Image © Mordor Intelligence. Reuse requires attribution under CC BY 4.0.

Competitive Landscape

The human papillomavirus vaccine industry is moderately concentrated. Merck continues to dominate with the Gardasil franchise but faces unprecedented legal and commercial headwinds, including USD 8 billion in safety litigation and rapid share loss in China. Investments in an expanded Elkton, Virginia plant and single-dose Gardasil 9 formulations are designed to defend leadership.

GSK maintains a cost-centric niche through Cervarix, while Serum Institute’s Cervavac and newly WHO-prequalified Chinese entrants erode price floors, especially in LMIC tenders. Emerging pipelines feature therapeutic gene therapies such as Precigen’s PRGN-2012 for recurrent respiratory papillomatosis, pending FDA priority review in August 2025. Digital tracking platforms integrated with electronic medical records are becoming a differentiator, allowing companies to document coverage evidence and reinforce value propositions with payers.

White-space segments include adult male vaccination, therapeutic vaccines, and region-specific multivalent formulations. Suppliers able to navigate complex biologics regulation, deploy tiered pricing, and support community-driven education campaigns will capture outsized gains in the human papillomavirus vaccine market through 2030.

Human Papillomavirus Vaccine Industry Leaders

  1. Serum Institute of India Pvt. Ltd.

  2. Wantai BioPharm

  3. INOVIO Pharmaceuticals

  4. Merck & Co., Inc.

  5. GSK plc.

  6. *Disclaimer: Major Players sorted in no particular order
Human Papillomavirus Vaccine Market Concentration
Image © Mordor Intelligence. Reuse requires attribution under CC BY 4.0.
Need More Details on Market Players and Competitors?
Download PDF

Recent Industry Developments

  • June 2025: Taiwan confirmed free HPV vaccinations for boys from September 2025, benefiting an estimated 90,000 beneficiaries annually.
  • February 2025: PAHO and Spanish development agencies agreed to scale cervical cancer elimination programs, expanding 9-valent vaccine access in Latin America.
  • January 2025: The Philippines Department of Health launched a fully funded HPV immunization program targeting 95% female coverage nationwide.
  • November 2024: Merck presented Gardasil 9 adult data at the International Papillomavirus Conference, reinforcing the rationale for gender-neutral vaccination up to age 45.

Table of Contents for Human Papillomavirus Vaccine Industry Report

1. Introduction

  • 1.1 Study Assumptions & Market Definition
  • 1.2 Scope of the Study

2. Research Methodology

3. Executive Summary

4. Market Landscape

  • 4.1 Market Overview
  • 4.2 Market Drivers
    • 4.2.1 Approval of New Multivalent HPV Vaccines
    • 4.2.2 Government & Multi-Lateral Funding Accelerators
    • 4.2.3 Gender-Neutral Immunization Policies
    • 4.2.4 Rising HPV-Linked Cancer Incidence
    • 4.2.5 One-Dose Schedule Endorsed By WHO
    • 4.2.6 Emergence of LMIC-Based Vaccine Manufacturers
  • 4.3 Market Restraints
    • 4.3.1 Stringent Biologics Regulations
    • 4.3.2 Vaccine Hesitancy & Misinformation
    • 4.3.3 High Procurement Cost for Mics
    • 4.3.4 Cold-Chain & Last-Mile Gaps in LMICs
  • 4.4 Regulatory Landscape
  • 4.5 Porters Five Forces Analysis
    • 4.5.1 Bargaining Power of Suppliers
    • 4.5.2 Bargaining Power of Buyers
    • 4.5.3 Threat of New Entrants
    • 4.5.4 Threat of Substitutes
    • 4.5.5 Intensity of Competitive Rivalry

5. Market Size & Growth Forecasts (Value, USD)

  • 5.1 By Vaccine Type
    • 5.1.1 Bivalent
    • 5.1.2 Quadrivalent
    • 5.1.3 Nonavalent
  • 5.2 By Indication
    • 5.2.1 Cervical Cancer
    • 5.2.2 Anal Cancer
    • 5.2.3 Penile Cancer
    • 5.2.4 Oropharyngeal Cancer
    • 5.2.5 Genital Warts
    • 5.2.6 Others
  • 5.3 By Distribution Channel
    • 5.3.1 Public
    • 5.3.2 Private
  • 5.4 By Age Group
    • 5.4.1 Adults
    • 5.4.2 Pediatric
  • 5.5 By Geography
    • 5.5.1 North America
    • 5.5.1.1 United States
    • 5.5.1.2 Canada
    • 5.5.1.3 Mexico
    • 5.5.2 Europe
    • 5.5.2.1 Germany
    • 5.5.2.2 United Kingdom
    • 5.5.2.3 France
    • 5.5.2.4 Italy
    • 5.5.2.5 Spain
    • 5.5.2.6 Rest of Europe
    • 5.5.3 Asia-Pacific
    • 5.5.3.1 China
    • 5.5.3.2 Japan
    • 5.5.3.3 India
    • 5.5.3.4 Australia
    • 5.5.3.5 South Korea
    • 5.5.3.6 Rest of Asia-Pacific
    • 5.5.4 Middle East and Africa
    • 5.5.4.1 GCC
    • 5.5.4.2 South Africa
    • 5.5.4.3 Rest of Middle East and Africa
    • 5.5.5 South America
    • 5.5.5.1 Brazil
    • 5.5.5.2 Argentina
    • 5.5.5.3 Rest of South America

6. Competitive Landscape

  • 6.1 Market Concentration
  • 6.2 Market Share Analysis
  • 6.3 Company Profiles (includes Global-level Overview, Market-level Overview, Core Segments, Financials, Strategic Information, Market Rank/Share, Products & Services, Recent Developments)
    • 6.3.1 Merck & Co., Inc.
    • 6.3.2 GSK plc
    • 6.3.3 Serum Institute of India Pvt Ltd
    • 6.3.4 Walvax Biotechnology Co. Ltd
    • 6.3.5 Bharat Biotech
    • 6.3.6 Innovax (Xiamen Innovax Biotech)
    • 6.3.7 Wantai BioPharm
    • 6.3.8 Sinovac Biotech Ltd
    • 6.3.9 INOVIO Pharmaceuticals
    • 6.3.10 Novartis AG
    • 6.3.11 AstraZeneca plc
    • 6.3.12 Dynavax Technologies
    • 6.3.13 CSL Seqirus
    • 6.3.14 Shenzhen Kangtai Biological
    • 6.3.15 Pfizer Inc.
    • 6.3.16 Sanofi SA
    • 6.3.17 VBI Vaccines
    • 6.3.18 Geneos Therapeutics
    • 6.3.19 Takeda Pharmaceutical
    • 6.3.20 Daiichi-Sankyo

7. Market Opportunities & Future Outlook

  • 7.1 White-space & unmet-need assessment
You Can Purchase Parts Of This Report. Check Out Prices For Specific Sections
Get Price Break-up Now

Global Human Papillomavirus Vaccine Market Report Scope

As per the scope of this report, human papillomavirus vaccines are vaccines that are utilized to prevent HPV infection. HPV is a group of more than 100 viruses, of which 13 can cause cancer, and nearly all cases of cervical cancer are attributed to HPV. The human papillomavirus vaccine market is segmented by type (bivalent, quadrivalent, nonavalent), indication (cervical cancer, anal cancer, penile cancer, oropharyngeal cancer, genital warts, and others), and geography (North America, Europe, Asia-Pacific, Middle East and Africa, and South America). The report also covers the estimated market sizes and trends for 17 countries across major regions globally. The report offers the value (in USD) for the above segments.

By Vaccine Type Bivalent
Quadrivalent
Nonavalent
By Indication Cervical Cancer
Anal Cancer
Penile Cancer
Oropharyngeal Cancer
Genital Warts
Others
By Distribution Channel Public
Private
By Age Group Adults
Pediatric
By Geography North America United States
Canada
Mexico
Europe Germany
United Kingdom
France
Italy
Spain
Rest of Europe
Asia-Pacific China
Japan
India
Australia
South Korea
Rest of Asia-Pacific
Middle East and Africa GCC
South Africa
Rest of Middle East and Africa
South America Brazil
Argentina
Rest of South America
By Vaccine Type
Bivalent
Quadrivalent
Nonavalent
By Indication
Cervical Cancer
Anal Cancer
Penile Cancer
Oropharyngeal Cancer
Genital Warts
Others
By Distribution Channel
Public
Private
By Age Group
Adults
Pediatric
By Geography
North America United States
Canada
Mexico
Europe Germany
United Kingdom
France
Italy
Spain
Rest of Europe
Asia-Pacific China
Japan
India
Australia
South Korea
Rest of Asia-Pacific
Middle East and Africa GCC
South Africa
Rest of Middle East and Africa
South America Brazil
Argentina
Rest of South America
Need A Different Region or Segment?
Customize Now

Key Questions Answered in the Report

What is the projected value of the human papillomavirus vaccine market by 2030?

The market is expected to reach USD 13.51 billion by 2030, growing at an 8.51% CAGR.

Why are single-dose HPV schedules significant for LMICs?

Single-dose regimens cut follow-up visits in half and lower delivery cost, which improves coverage in settings with limited healthcare infrastructure.

Which vaccine type is growing fastest in the human papillomavirus vaccine market?

Nonavalent formulations show the quickest trajectory, expanding at a 9.24% CAGR through 2030 due to broader strain protection.

How are gender-neutral policies affecting demand?

Including boys effectively doubles the eligible population, accelerating uptake in North America, Europe and increasingly in Asia-Pacific.

Which region offers the highest growth potential to 2030?

Asia-Pacific is forecast to post the strongest 9.22% CAGR, driven by large-scale national programs and expanding domestic manufacturing.

What role do private channels play in vaccine distribution?

Private outlets are the fastest growing channel at 9.42% CAGR, catering to middle-income consumers willing to pay for convenience and early access.

Page last updated on: July 1, 2025

Human Papillomavirus Vaccine Market Report Snapshots