Africa Alfalfa Market Analysis by Mordor Intelligence
The Africa alfalfa market size stood at USD 1.10 billion in 2025 and is forecast to reach USD 1.76 billion by 2030, translating into a 7.9% CAGR over the period. Structural shifts toward intensive livestock systems, preferential tariff corridors to Gulf Cooperation Council countries, and the spread of drought-tolerant cultivars are lifting production, trade, and on-farm use across the continent. Egypt’s vertically integrated dairies, South Africa’s export-oriented growers, and a widening cooperative base in Ethiopia and Kenya are shaping volume flows and quality standards in the Africa alfalfa market. At the same time, water scarcity, fragmented logistics, and phytosanitary rejections continue to weigh on margins, prompting investment in irrigation efficiency, solar drying, and pre-shipment testing. These countervailing forces are anticipated to shape the evolution of value pools in the Africa alfalfa market by 2030.
Key Report Takeaways
- By Geography, Egypt accounted for 25.5% of total alfalfa consumption in 2024, while Kenya is projected to post the fastest growth at a 9.8% CAGR through 2030.
Africa Alfalfa Market Trends and Insights
Drivers Impact Analysis
| Driver | (~) % Impact on CAGR Forecast | Geographic Relevance | Impact Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rapid dairy-sector expansion in North Africa | +1.8% | Egypt, Morocco, Algeria | Medium term (2–4 years) |
| Intensifying feed demand from commercial poultry | +1.2% | Egypt, South Africa, Kenya | Short term (≤ 2 years) |
| Government irrigation schemes boost forage acreage | +1.5% | Sudan (Gezira), Egypt (Toshka), Ethiopia (Koga) | Long term (≥ 4 years) |
| Rising Gulf demand is pulling African exports through preferential tariffs | +1.4% | North Africa to the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Oman | Medium term (2–4 years) |
| Adoption of drought-tolerant alfalfa cultivars | +1.1% | Ethiopia, Kenya, Tanzania | Long term (≥ 4 years) |
| Growth of on-farm baling and pelleting cooperatives | +0.9% | Ethiopia, Kenya, Uganda | Medium term (2–4 years) |
| Source: Mordor Intelligence | |||
Rapid Dairy-Sector Expansion in North Africa
Egypt added 1.2 million heads to its dairy herd between 2020 and 2024, and Morocco gained 340,000 heads, pushing forage demand sharply higher, according to [1]Source: Food and Agriculture Organization, “FAOSTAT Production Statistics,” fao.org. Processors invested USD 890 million in new plants during 2024, rewarding farms that switch from berseem clover to higher-protein alfalfa. Egyptian hay demand rose by 420,000 metric tons from 2022 to 2024, tightening local supplies and lifting spot prices to USD 285 per metric ton in March 2024. The sustained pull from dairies secures a stable floor for the Africa alfalfa market.
Intensifying Feed Demand from Commercial Poultry
Broiler integrators in Egypt and South Africa use alfalfa meal at an inclusion rate of 3 percent to 5 percent to lower soybean meal costs, which averaged USD 512 per metric ton in 2024. Egypt’s flock consumed 68,000 metric tons of alfalfa meal in 2024, up 66 percent in two years [2]Source: International Livestock Research Institute, “Feed Assessment Tool Database,” ilri.org . South Africa’s leading producers reported a 0.04-point gain in feed conversion after adding alfalfa, thereby improving profit on a cost-heavy input structure. Poultry uptake absorbs lower-grade hay, smoothing revenue swings for growers across the Africa alfalfa market.
Government Irrigation Schemes Boosting Forage Acreage
Sudan’s Gezira scheme allocated 18,000 hectares to alfalfa between 2020 and 2024, achieving yields of 11–13 metric tons per hectare despite disruptions caused by conflict [3]Source: International Water Management Institute, “Official Website,” International Water Management Institute, iwmi.cgiar.org. Egypt’s Toshka project is set to expand, utilizing pivot irrigation systems that consume water efficiently for dry matter production. Ethiopia’s Koga scheme has also grown with support from an African Development Bank loan, which funded balers and farmer training. The additional irrigated land facilitates more annual cuttings, enhancing protein retention and improving supply security in the African alfalfa market.
Rising Gulf Demand is Pulling African Exports Through Preferential Tariffs
The United Arab Emirates imported alfalfa in 2024, with African suppliers capturing a significant portion of this volume after tariffs were eliminated under the African Continental Free Trade Area rules. In the same year, Saudi Arabia provided African hay with a tariff advantage over products from the United States and Australia, further increasing the cost competitiveness of African exports. Additionally, shorter shipping times from Durban or Alexandria reduce cash cycle durations and minimize spoilage risks compared to trans-Pacific routes. Preferential market access is anticipated to sustain Gulf markets as a key driver of growth for the African alfalfa market.
Restraints Impact Analysis
| Restraint | (~) % Impact on CAGR Forecast | Geographic Relevance | Impact Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|
| Water scarcity and competition with food crops in arid zones | −1.3% | Egypt, Sudan, Morocco, South Africa (Western Cape) | Long term (≥ 4 years) |
| Fragmented logistics raising inland freight costs | −0.9% | Ethiopia, Kenya, Sudan, inland origins | Medium term (2–4 years) |
| Phytosanitary export rejections | −0.7% | Egypt, Sudan, South Africa, Morocco | Short term (≤ 2 years) |
| Low farmer awareness of forage quality standards | −0.6% | Ethiopia, Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda | Medium term (2–4 years) |
| Source: Mordor Intelligence | |||
Water Scarcity and Competition With Food Crops in Arid Zones
Egypt’s fixed Nile quota leaves alfalfa competing with wheat, rice, and sugarcane for water during peak demand, thereby raising production risk. Alfalfa uses 40 percent more water than berseem clover, making tariffs that rose 22 percent in 2024 a heavy cost burden. Morocco lost 8,200 hectares of alfalfa between 2020 and 2024 as citrus and avocado growers outbid livestock farms for groundwater. Persistent deficits in Western Cape and Nile upstream dam projects in Sudan underscore long-term supply constraints for the Africa alfalfa market.
Fragmented Logistics Raising Inland Freight Costs
Transporting hay from Ethiopia's Oromia region to the Djibouti port involves significant costs, constituting a notable portion of the export value. In Kenya, delays along the Northern Corridor at checkpoints further increase transportation expenses. In Sudan, inland freight costs have risen due to fuel subsidy reductions and the implementation of security escorts. These high logistics expenses reduce profit margins for smallholders and hinder growth in the African alfalfa market.
Geography Analysis
By Geography, Egypt accounted for 25.5% of total alfalfa consumption in 2024, while Kenya is projected to post the fastest growth at a 9.8% CAGR through 2030. Egypt’s higher production share anchors the Africa alfalfa market, yet its future growth is capped by a moderate CAGR due to Nile water limits and crop competition. The Toshka desert reclamation added 22,000 hectares in 2024, with Al Dahra managing 18,000 hectares in New Valley to serve United Arab Emirates dairy farms. Persistent Clavibacter issues prompted mobile PCR testing units that cut turnaround to forty-eight hours, an important quality safeguard.
Morocco records a significant contribution of output from Souss-Massa and Gharb, but water reforms prioritizing export horticulture have slowed expansion and raised reliance on imports from the United Arab Emirates. Soufflet Agriculture Maroc’s contract network secures organic premiums that partly offset water tariffs. Sudan remains the third-largest supplier, although conflict reduced 2024 volumes, and Nile allocation losses led to acreage shifts back to sorghum.
Kenya and Ethiopia form the high-growth belt of the African alfalfa market, driven by drought-tolerant seed, mobile pelleting, and cooperative logistics that mitigate high inland freight costs. South Africa’s Western Cape has accounted for a significant contribution, Gulf acceptance rate upholds export leadership, but multi-year drought cycles and rail deficits moderate growth. These regional contrasts shape future investment hotspots and risk profiles across the Africa alfalfa market.
Recent Industry Developments
- June 2024: The African Development Bank approved loan for Ethiopia’s Koga irrigation upgrade, which includes 35 small balers and training, aiming to add 4,200 hectares by 2026.
- December 2023: 10X Capital Venture Acquisition II completed its merger with African Agriculture, a global food security company operating a commercial-scale alfalfa farm on the African continent.
Africa Alfalfa Market Report Scope
Alfalfa hay is obtained from the alfalfa plant, also known as lucerne and medicago sativa. It is cultivated as an important forage crop in many countries worldwide.
The African alfalfa hay market is segmented by product type (bales, pellets, and cubes), application (meat/dairy animal feed, poultry feed, horse feed, and other applications), and geography (South Africa, Sudan, Uganda, Tanzania, Kenya, and Rest of Africa). The market sizing is provided in value terms (USD) for all the above-mentioned segments.
By Geography
| Egypt |
| Morocco |
| Sudan |
| Kenya |
| South Africa |
| By Geography | Egypt |
| Morocco | |
| Sudan | |
| Kenya | |
| South Africa |
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Key Questions Answered in the Report
How large is the Africa alfalfa market in 2025?
The Africa alfalfa market size reached USD 1.1 billion in 2025 and is projected to grow to USD 1.76 billion by 2030.
What is the expected growth rate for African alfalfa through 2030?
The market is forecast to expand at a 7.9% CAGR over the 2025 to 2030 period.
Which country leads African alfalfa production?
Egypt dominated production in 2024, supported by extensive irrigation in the Nile Delta and large dairy herds.
What are the main constraints facing African alfalfa exporters?
Water scarcity, high inland logistics costs, and phytosanitary rejections continue to be the top barriers to export growth.
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