US E-Commerce Market Size & Share Analysis - Growth Trends & Forecasts (2025 - 2030)

The United States E-Commerce Market Report is Segmented by Business Model (B2C, B2B), Device Type (Smartphone / Mobile, Desktop and Laptop, Other Device Types), Payment Method (Credit / Debit Cards, Digital Wallets, BNPL, Other Payment Method), B2C Product Category (Beauty and Personal Care, Consumer Electronics, Fashion and Apparel, and More). The Market Forecasts are Provided in Terms of Value (USD).

US E-Commerce Market Size and Share

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US E-Commerce Market Analysis by Mordor Intelligence

The US ecommerce market stands at USD 1.25 trillion in 2025 and is forecast to reach USD 2.08 trillion by 2030, equivalent to a 10.71% CAGR over the period. Robust spending on digital channels, continuous gains in mobile commerce, and deeper integration of embedded finance offset the tapering of pandemic-era tailwinds. Mobile now drives the majority of online checkouts and acts as a catalyst for same-day service expectations, while generative AI lifts conversion by reducing the friction between search intent and product discovery. Category growth remains uneven: consumer electronics retains the largest revenue base, but online grocery and food delivery accelerate fastest as retailers deploy micro-fulfilment centres. Regulatory shifts, including tighter de minimis rules on cross-border parcels, push merchants to re-engineer supply chains yet also open white space for domestic third-party logistics platforms. Competitive intensity rises as Walmart, Shein, and Temu chip away at Amazon’s leadership, and as B2B marketplaces draw manufacturers directly into the digital arena.

Key Report Takeaways

  • By business model, the B2C segment held 88% of the US ecommerce market in 2024, while B2B is advancing at a 12.8% CAGR through 2030.  
  • By device type, smartphones commanded 72% share of US ecommerce transactions in 2024 and are projected to grow at a 12.1% CAGR to 2030.  
  • By payment method, credit and debit cards accounted for 54% of transactions in 2024, whereas BNPL solutions are forecast to rise at an 18.3% CAGR over 2025-2030.  
  • By B2C product category, consumer electronics led with 25% of US ecommerce market share in 2024, while food & beverages is projected to expand at a 15.2% CAGR through 2030.  

Segment Analysis

By Business Model: B2B Digitization Accelerates Growth

The B2C stream contributed 88% of US ecommerce transactions in 2024, a share that underscores its entrenched position among consumers. Nevertheless, B2B digital commerce is projected to outpace the broader US ecommerce market, expanding at a 12.8% CAGR to 2030 as industrial buyers migrate online. This surge reflects a demographic turnover: millennials are forecast to represent 70% of professional purchasers by 2025, pushing suppliers toward intuitive, consumer-grade interfaces. Advanced analytics adoption now reaches 86% of B2B sellers, fueling personalised catalogs and real-time inventory visibility.  

A platform shift underpins this growth. Marketplace participation already involves 59% of B2B buyers, redirecting spend from traditional distribution to digital self-service paths. Subscription pricing models further reinforce loyalty, with the total subscription economy inside the segment projected at USD 1.5 trillion by 2025. As a result, US ecommerce market size forecasts show B2B’s contribution moving from the periphery to a material share of online GMV, though B2C still magnifies absolute dollars due to its sheer scale.

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By Device Type: Mobile Dominance Reshapes Experience Design

Smartphones generated 72% of US ecommerce checkouts in 2024 and are forecast to compound at 12.1% through 2030, cementing a mobile-first paradigm. Despite high usage, conversion on small screens trails desktop by 35.1%, leaving optimisation headroom. Native apps outperform responsive sites by 30% on conversion, encouraging retailers to shift budget from desktop upgrades to mobile features like one-tap checkout.  

Daily mobile screen time averages 4.4 hours, 88% of which occurs in apps. Mobile wallets are set to handle USD 190 billion in 2024, equivalent to more than half of digital payments. Augmented reality features drive deeper engagement, with 90% of mobile shoppers open to AR try-ons. These advances improve the proportion of mobile sales inside the US ecommerce market size, closing the performance gap with desktop over the forecast horizon.

By Payment Method: BNPL Disrupts the Traditional Payment Hierarchy

Cards retained 54% share of online payments in 2024, yet BNPL claims the growth spotlight at an 18.3% CAGR through 2030. The BNPL user base reached 79 million Americans in 2023 and is poised to escalate as Gen Z adoption climbs toward 47.4% by 2025. Retailers observe tangible benefits: higher cart values and reduced abandonment once instalment options appear above the fold.  

Future share gains hinge on risk scoring and regulatory clarity. Consumer Financial Protection Bureau guidance underway in 2025 encourages providers to integrate with credit bureaus, which may temper approval rates. Still, embedded BNPL woven into digital wallets keeps checkout friction low. These dynamics suggest BNPL will capture a larger slice of US ecommerce market share by value, though cards remain entrenched among affluent shoppers who seek loyalty points.

US E-Commerce Market: Market Share by Payment Method
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Note: Segment shares of all individual segments available upon report purchase

By B2C Product Category: Food & Beverages Lead Digital Transformation

Consumer electronics generated 25% of online revenue in 2024, keeping the crown for ticket size and upgrade frequency. However, food & beverages holds the fastest lane, expanding at 15.2% CAGR to 2030. Online penetration sits at 16.7% and is forecast to climb to 28.9% by 2029. Investments in temperature-controlled fulfilment and subscription meal kits propel repeat frequency and basket breadth.  

Fashion wrestles with returns yet benefits from virtual try-on tools that chip away at fit uncertainty. Furniture and home categories gain momentum through AR visualisation, enhancing shopper confidence on bulky purchases. Toys, DIY, and media adopt personalisation algorithms to refine discovery. Collectively, these shifts rebalance category weights inside the US ecommerce market size, amplifying the role of everyday staples relative to discretionary electronics.

Geography Analysis

The United States accounts for 16% of global online sales and sits behind only China in absolute GMV. Domestic digital value creation reached USD 4.9 trillion or 18% of GDP in 2025, up from 11% in 2020. Metropolitan areas on the coasts and in the Great Lakes region spearhead adoption of micro-fulfilment and same-day logistics, translating into higher per-capita ecommerce spending. Conversely, rural counties experience slower penetration due to higher freight fees, a gap widened by the new USD 1.75 remote delivery surcharge from UPS.  

Cross-border demand remains a lever for domestic brands. Section 321 policy changes effective February 2025 removed the duty-free threshold for imports from China, Canada, and Mexico, prompting merchants to reroute inventory to bonded warehouses or explore in-country production for foreign customers. While this disrupts drop-ship models, it underscores a strategic push toward near-shoring and regional fulfilment nodes.  

Digital activity permeates every congressional district, supporting 28.4 million jobs that expand 12 times faster than overall employment. Hyperlocal fulfilment facilities range from 10,000 to 20,000 sq ft and create roles in operations, maintenance, and data analytics throughout the Midwest and Sun Belt. As a result, the US ecommerce market spreads economic benefits beyond legacy tech hubs, setting a foundation for broader adoption of advanced retail technologies nationwide.

Competitive Landscape

Amazon commands 37.6% of US ecommerce market share, underpinning a marketplace model where third-party sellers account for 60% of GMV. Walmart follows with 6.4% and capitalises on its 4,600-store network to blend in-store pick-up with nationwide delivery. Apple, eBay, and Target round out the top five, yet cross-border entrants such as Shein and Temu accelerate rapidly: Shein now holds 50% of the US fast-fashion niche while Temu logs more than 503 million monthly visits.  

Fulfilment excellence differentiates leaders. Amazon extended same-day coverage to 90 metropolitan areas, leveraging mini-sort centres positioned within 50 miles of demand clusters. Walmart’s strategy aims for 25% online penetration by FY30, hinging on grocery strength and a marketplace expected to grow at 26% CAGR. Third-party sellers gravitate toward both ecosystems, yet Walmart’s stricter vetting helps preserve brand equity, particularly in food and household staples.  

Technology adoption scales across incumbents and challengers alike. Seventy-eight percent of ecommerce brands either use or plan to use AI to personalise recommendations and optimise supply chains. Amazon’s Project Ivy leverages generative AI for catalogue enrichment, while Walmart integrates predictive analytics to reduce out-of-stocks. Meanwhile, Shopify positions itself as the operating system for independent merchants, processing USD 292 billion GMV in 2024 and holding 12% share of the US ecommerce market. Competition therefore pivots not solely on price but on service reliability, ecosystem breadth, and data-driven merchandising.

US E-Commerce Industry Leaders

  1. Apple Inc.

  2. eBay Inc.

  3. Amazon.com, Inc.

  4. Walmart Inc.

  5. The Home Depot, Inc.

  6. *Disclaimer: Major Players sorted in no particular order
US Ecommerce Market Concentration
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Recent Industry Developments

  • May 2025: Amazon’s attempt to dismiss an antitrust suit failed when the District of Columbia Court of Appeals allowed allegations concerning price-parity policies to proceed. The decision forces Amazon to reassess how it balances marketplace fee income with regulatory risk, signalling tighter guardrails on seller terms.
  • April 2025: Shopify posted USD 2.4 billion in Q1 revenue, up 27% year-over-year, confirming that its merchant-centric platform strategy scales globally while offering independent sellers an alternative to entrenched marketplaces.
  • March 2025: Walmart announced plans to lift ecommerce penetration from 17% to 25% of revenue by FY30, leveraging grocery leadership to draw repeat visits and expanding marketplace GMV at a 26% CAGR, a strategic gambit aimed at narrowing the gap with Amazon.
  • February 2025: US Customs and Border Protection removed duty-free privileges for low-value imports from China, Mexico, and Canada, forcing Temu and Shein to reassess US fulfilment routes and nudging domestic sellers to review cross-border pricing.

Table of Contents for US E-Commerce Industry Report

1. INTRODUCTION

  • 1.1 Study Assumptions and Market Definition
  • 1.2 Scope of the Study

2. RESEARCH METHODOLOGY

3. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

4. MARKET LANDSCAPE

  • 4.1 Market Overview
  • 4.2 Market Drivers
    • 4.2.1 Rapid Adoption of Same-Day and Instant Delivery Models in US Metros
    • 4.2.2 Online Grocery Penetration Post-COVID via Micro-Fulfilment Investments
    • 4.2.3 BNPL and Embedded Finance Boosting High-Ticket Conversions
    • 4.2.4 Cross-Border Demand for US DTC Brands via Section 321 De-Minimis
    • 4.2.5 SMB Marketplace Adoption Transitioning from Wholesale to DTC
    • 4.2.6 Generative-AI Product Discovery Enhancing Conversion Rates
  • 4.3 Market Restraints
    • 4.3.1 Last-Mile Delivery Cost Inflation and Carrier Surcharges
    • 4.3.2 State-Level Data-Privacy Rules Complicating Personalisation
    • 4.3.3 High Product-Return Rates Driving Reverse-Logistics Costs
    • 4.3.4 US Antitrust Scrutiny Limiting Platform Fee Expansion
  • 4.4 Value Chain Analysis
  • 4.5 Regulatory Outlook
  • 4.6 Porter’s Five Forces Analysis
    • 4.6.1 Bargaining Power of Suppliers
    • 4.6.2 Bargaining Power of Buyers / Consumers
    • 4.6.3 Threat of New Entrants
    • 4.6.4 Threat of Substitute Products
    • 4.6.5 Intensity of Competitive Rivalry
  • 4.7 Key Market Trends and Share of E-commerce in Total Retail
  • 4.8 Impact of Macroeconomic Factors on E-commerce Sales
  • 4.9 Investment Analysis
  • 4.10 Analysis of key demographic trends and patterns related to E-commerce industry in United States (Coverage to include Population, Internet Penetration, E-commerce Penetration, Age and Income etc.)
  • 4.11 Analysis of cross-border E-commerce industry in United States (Current market value of cross-border and key trends)
  • 4.12 Current positioning of country United States in the E-commerce industry in region North America

5. MARKET SIZE AND GROWTH FORECASTS (VALUES)

  • 5.1 By Business Model
    • 5.1.1 B2C
    • 5.1.2 B2B
  • 5.2 By Device Type
    • 5.2.1 Smartphone / Mobile
    • 5.2.2 Desktop and Laptop
    • 5.2.3 Other Device Types
  • 5.3 By Payment Method
    • 5.3.1 Credit / Debit Cards
    • 5.3.2 Digital Wallets
    • 5.3.3 BNPL
    • 5.3.4 Other Payment Method
  • 5.4 By B2C Product Category
    • 5.4.1 Beauty and Personal Care
    • 5.4.2 Consumer Electronics
    • 5.4.3 Fashion and Apparel
    • 5.4.4 Food and Beverages
    • 5.4.5 Furniture and Home
    • 5.4.6 Toys, DIY and Media
    • 5.4.7 Other Product Categories

6. COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE

  • 6.1 Market Concentration
  • 6.2 Strategic Moves
  • 6.3 Market Share Analysis
  • 6.4 Company Profiles (includes Global level Overview, Market level overview, Core Segments, Financials as available, Strategic Information, Market Rank/Share for key companies, Products and Services, and Recent Developments)
    • 6.4.1 Amazon.com, Inc.
    • 6.4.2 Walmart Inc.
    • 6.4.3 eBay Inc.
    • 6.4.4 Apple Inc.
    • 6.4.5 The Home Depot, Inc.
    • 6.4.6 Shopify Inc.
    • 6.4.7 Costco Wholesale Corporation
    • 6.4.8 Target Corporation
    • 6.4.9 Best Buy Co., Inc.
    • 6.4.10 Wayfair Inc.
    • 6.4.11 The Kroger Co.
    • 6.4.12 Etsy, Inc.
    • 6.4.13 Chewy, Inc.
    • 6.4.14 Overstock.com, Inc.
    • 6.4.15 Lowe’s Companies, Inc.
    • 6.4.16 Macy’s, Inc.
    • 6.4.17 Nordstrom, Inc.
    • 6.4.18 PDD Holdings Inc. (Temu)
    • 6.4.19 SHEIN Group Ltd.
    • 6.4.20 Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. (AliExpress US)

7. MARKET OPPORTUNITIES AND FUTURE OUTLOOK

  • 7.1 White-space and Unmet-Need Assessment
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US E-Commerce Market Report Scope

E-commerce is the buying and selling of goods and services over the Internet through online shopping. However, this term is often used to describe all the seller's efforts in selling products directly to consumers. It begins when potential customers learn about a product, buy it, use it, and ideally maintain lasting customer loyalty.

The US e-commerce market is segmented by B2C e-commerce (beauty and personal care, consumer electronics, fashion and apparel, food and beverages, furniture, and home) and B2B e-commerce. The report's scope includes market sizes and forecasts for the segments, with the B2C channel being further segmented by application. The market sizes and forecasts are provided in terms of value (USD) for all the above segments.

By Business Model B2C
B2B
By Device Type Smartphone / Mobile
Desktop and Laptop
Other Device Types
By Payment Method Credit / Debit Cards
Digital Wallets
BNPL
Other Payment Method
By B2C Product Category Beauty and Personal Care
Consumer Electronics
Fashion and Apparel
Food and Beverages
Furniture and Home
Toys, DIY and Media
Other Product Categories
By Business Model
B2C
B2B
By Device Type
Smartphone / Mobile
Desktop and Laptop
Other Device Types
By Payment Method
Credit / Debit Cards
Digital Wallets
BNPL
Other Payment Method
By B2C Product Category
Beauty and Personal Care
Consumer Electronics
Fashion and Apparel
Food and Beverages
Furniture and Home
Toys, DIY and Media
Other Product Categories
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Key Questions Answered in the Report

What is the current US ecommerce market size in 2025?

The market stands at USD 1.25 trillion in 2025 and is projected to reach USD 2.08 trillion by 2030.

Which device generates most online sales?

Smartphones accounted for 72% of transactions in 2024 and are growing at a 12.1% CAGR.

How fast is the B2B segment growing within US online commerce?

B2B ecommerce is expanding at a 12.8% CAGR through 2030, faster than the overall market.

What impact do delivery surcharges have on merchants?

New carrier fees add 10-12% to small-business shipping costs, pressuring margins and price competitiveness.

Why is BNPL significant for retailers?

BNPL raises average order value by about 20% and is forecast to grow at an 18.3% CAGR through 2030.

Which product category is forecast to grow fastest online?

Food & beverages leads with a projected 15.2% CAGR, driven by investment in temperature-controlled fulfilment and subscription models.

Page last updated on: July 2, 2025

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