Turkey Solar Energy Market Size & Share Analysis - Growth Trends And Forecast (2025 - 2030)

Turkey Solar Energy Market Trends and Insights

Net-metering expansion and rooftop mandate roll-outs

Monthly net-metering credits enable homes and factories to sell surplus power, reducing payback times to below seven years. Rooftop potential equals 120 GW, or three times the 2030 capacity target.^{[1]Ember, “Türkiye can expand solar by 120 GW through rooftops,” ember-energy.org} Installations under 5 MW see faster licensing, which boosts small EPC activity in Istanbul and Ankara. Distribution firms flag voltage swings at midday, yet smart inverters ease the strain. The government plans digital meters nationwide, a move that supports broader bidirectional flows. These factors collectively expand the customer base of the Turkish solar energy market.

Declining LCOE of PV electricity

Utility bids are now clearing below USD 70/MWh, matching imported gas and coal prices. Module prices decline as local fabs scale, while low-cost financing reduces the weighted cost of capital. Southern provinces average 7.2 sun-hours daily, lifting capacity-factor economics. Storage prices fall too, making hybrid arrays viable for factories with evening loads. As a result, developers lock in long PPAs that underpin the Turkey solar energy market size through the decade.

Green-hydrogen pilots anchoring utility-scale PPAs

Biga Hydrogen opened a 400 MW electrolyzer line tied to a 1.5 MW solar plant. Steel and cement firms study similar setups that swap gas heat for hydrogen. Solar developers gain 20-year offtake certainty, which lowers lender risk premiums. Co-location also trims grid fees and transmission losses. Yet high electrolyzer costs cap near-term volumes, keeping growth modest until scale brings prices down.

“Made-in-Türkiye” module incentive scheme

Feed-in bonuses add up to TRY 1.3/kWh for Turkish panels and TRY 0.8/kWh for local inverters. Astronergy and four local partners commit USD 2.5 billion to new cell lines, targeting an annual output of 10 GW.^{[2]PV Tech, “Astronergy, four Turkish PV manufacturers to invest USD 2.5 billion in solar cell plants,” pv-tech.org} Local supply cuts FX exposure and shortens lead times for EPC firms. Antidumping duties on select imports further protect price floors. Together, these levers secure input costs and bolster the domestic manufacturers' share of the Turkey solar energy market.

Grid-curtailment caps in high-solar provinces

Rapid PV build-outs now press the 400 kV backbone, and curtailment averages 4% in Konya, climbing to 7% on clear spring days.^{[3]International Energy Agency, “Renewable Energy Market Update – June 2023,” iea.org} The transmission operator applies hourly caps that slice merchant revenues and unsettle lenders. Developers respond with inverter oversizing, battery add-ons, and staggered energization schedules; however, these fixes increase project capital expenditures and temper near-term additions. Grid-reinforcement plans promise a new south-north corridor by 2027, yet until then, curtailment will trim the Turkey solar energy market's CAGR.

TRY-USD volatility squeezing imported balance-of-system costs

The lira’s 15% slide in 2024 lifted prices for inverters, trackers, and cables that still rely on overseas supply. Although the YEKDEM tariff adjusts quarterly, FX swings complicate loan servicing and insurance covenants. To hedge, larger EPC groups price PPAs in euros or buy forward contracts, strategies out of reach for many small installers. Local content rules partially offset the shock, yet domestic factories cannot meet the total demand for power electronics. The result is a modest drag on the Turkey solar energy market growth curve through 2027.

Segment Analysis

By Technology: PV Dominance Sustains, CSP Remains Niche

Solar Photovoltaic installations captured 99.99% of 2024 capacity, while Concentrated Solar Power lingered at 0.01%. PV’s cost edge is clear: the Karapinar complex delivers electricity at USD 69.9/MWh, whereas no commercial CSP bid has met the YEKA price ceiling. Consequently, PV additions are expected to average 2.9 GW annually, keeping the Turkey solar energy market size firmly PV-centric. CSP’s 118.7% CAGR reflects pilot-scale projects, such as a proposed 20 MW hybrid tower in Mersin; yet, even full build-out leaves CSP with a share below 1% by 2030.

Domestic manufacturers channel the USD 2.5 billion cell-fab investment into n-type modules that cross 24% efficiency, cutting land use per megawatt. EPC firms also favor bifacial and single-axis tracker combinations, which boost yield by 15–20% in southern provinces. CSP, in contrast, faces high water demand and limited local engineering expertise, so developers adopt a wait-and-see approach. Still, grid-stability debates could revive interest in thermal-storage-rich CSP after 2028.

Note: Segment shares of all individual segments available upon report purchase

By Grid Type: On-Grid Projects Lead, Off-Grid Finds Niches

On-grid plants accounted for 90.7% of installations in 2024, mirroring the country's push for centrally dispatched renewables. Their 17.5% CAGR keeps pace with national demand growth, ensuring the on-grid slice of Turkey's solar energy market share stays above 88% through 2030. Net-metered rooftops feed surplus into local feeders, while utility parks sign 15-year feed-in deals under YEKA.

Off-grid arrays serve telecom towers, border posts, and eco-tourism resorts where grid links would exceed USD 1 million per kilometer. Falling lithium-iron-phosphate battery prices shorten the payback period, yet the segment grows from a small base, adding roughly 50 MW per year. Hybrid kits that switch between islanded and grid-tied modes blur category lines and could boost off-grid uptake in northern Black Sea villages that frequently experience storm outages.

By End User: Utility Still Commands, Residential Accelerates

Utility-scale facilities held 64.3% of installed power in 2024 thanks to multi-hundred-megawatt YEKA rounds. They attract export-credit financing, which locks borrowing costs below 6% and maintains robust margins even at flat tariffs. However, rooftop households logged the fastest 20.4% CAGR, aided by simple e-permitting that now approves sub-10 kW kits within five days. If that pace holds, residential rooftops will supply 7% of the nation's solar output by 2030, thereby expanding the Turkey solar energy market share for distributed assets.

Commercial-and-industrial rooftops straddle both worlds. Textile plants in Bursa install 5 MW systems to shave peak tariffs and earn CBAM credits, while logistics centers near Izmir deploy car-park canopies coupled with 2 MWh batteries for backup. As storage rules mature, C&I owners may trade flexibility services, turning private arrays into micro-balancing resources for the main grid.

Note: Segment shares of all individual segments available upon report purchase

Geography Analysis

Turkey's southern corridor accounts for 52% of the country's installed capacity, equivalent to 12.2 GW, or just over half of the Turkish solar energy market size in 2025. Konya alone hosts 1.35 GW at Karapinar and secures another 900 MW in late-stage permitting, while Antalya and Mersin each surpass 1 GW of cumulative arrays.^{[4]Philippine News Agency, “Europe's Largest Solar Power Plant to Officially Launch Tuesday,” pna.gov.ph} These provinces average more than 1,600 kWh/m² of annual irradiation, enabling capacity factors near 23% and keeping levelized costs among the lowest in the country. Curtailment risk is highest here, yet grid-reinforcement plans that add 1.8 GW of south-north transfer capacity by 2027 safeguard future buildouts.

Western Turkey, including Istanbul, Ankara, and Izmir, holds 6.8 GW, or 29% of total installations, a share that is expected to rise to 9.5 GW by 2030 as rooftops expand across densely industrialized areas. This region records the fastest 12.6% CAGR among all clusters, aided by euro-linked corporate PPAs that hedge Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism fees. Net-metered households and small factories can contribute up to 15% of the local midday load on sunny days, prompting distribution companies to pilot smart inverter settings that ride through reverse power events. High urban land prices spur creative use of car-park canopies and building-integrated modules, widening access for space-constrained customers.

Eastern and southeastern Anatolia contribute just 4.5 GW, or 19% of Turkey's solar energy market share, yet house the nation's largest uncommitted land bank. Low population density facilitates site aggregation for parks exceeding 50 MW, and agrivoltaic pilots near Diyarbakır demonstrate that maize yields remain intact under elevated solar trackers. Transmission remains the hurdle; only 220 kV lines serve much of the plateau, capping the immediate government's potential. The government's 2030 grid blueprint allocates TRY 34 billion for double-circuit upgrades, positioning the region as a medium-term growth frontier once these links come online.