Tuna Fish Market Size and Share
Tuna Fish Market Analysis by Mordor Intelligence
The Tuna Fish Market size is estimated at USD 48.20 billion in 2025, and is anticipated to reach USD 63.90 billion by 2030, at a CAGR of 5.80% during the forecast period. Rising demand for ready-to-eat formats in food-service channels, quota expansions in key fishing nations, and the rapid roll-out of digital vessel-monitoring systems have strengthened the global tuna market’s growth trajectory[1]Source: Food and Agriculture Organization, “Globefish Tuna Market Report 2024,” fao.org. Supply security is improving through closed-cycle aquaculture breakthroughs, while carbon-credit revenue linked to pole-and-line certification offers diversified income for small-scale fleets. Consolidation among Japanese and Thai processors is driving cost efficiency, yet climate-linked biomass shifts and tightening illegal, unreported, and unregulated (IUU) enforcement continue to pressure margins. Investors remain cautious in financing recirculating aquaculture systems, but innovative pay-for-performance contracts tied to feed conversion benchmarks are expanding access to capital.
Key Report Takeaways
- By geography, Asia-Pacific led revenue by 52.8% in 2024, and the Middle East and Africa region is projected to register the fastest 2025-2030 growth at 7.3%.
Global Tuna Fish Market Trends and Insights
Drivers Impact Analysis
| Driver | (~) % Impact on CAGR Forecast | Geographic Relevance | Impact Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expanding ready-to-eat tuna demand in HoReCa and food-service chains | +1.2% | Global, with a concentration in North America and the EU | Medium term (2-4 years) |
| Demand surge from global canning and surimi processors | +0.8% | Asia-Pacific core, spill-over to South America | Short term (≤ 2 years) |
| Expansion of long-line aquaculture and closed-cycle ranching capacity | +0.6% | Mediterranean, Asia-Pacific coastal regions | Long term (≥ 4 years) |
| Digital vessel-monitoring improving quota utilization | +0.4% | Global, early adoption in developed markets | Medium term (2-4 years) |
| Rising popularity of high-protein, tuna-based snack products in convenience retail | +0.5% | North America and EU, expanding to urban Asia-Pacific | Short term (≤ 2 years) |
| Carbon-credit revenue from pole-and-line certification | +0.3% | Pacific Island states, South Africa | Long term (≥ 4 years) |
| Source: Mordor Intelligence | |||
Expanding Ready-to-Eat Tuna Demand in HoReCa and Food-Service Chains
Global hotel, restaurant, and catering operators are accelerating purchases of premium, ready-to-eat tuna cuts, steadily shifting share away from shelf-stable canned products. U.S. distributors highlight stagnant canned volumes yet strong growth in non-canned portions, while Thai processors have become leading suppliers of cooked frozen loins. Food-service buyers now request blockchain-verified sourcing, allowing certified suppliers to capture price premiums of 7-10% in direct-to-operator contracts. The trend is amplifying raw material prices for yellowfin and bluefin grades, squeezing margins for processors without sustainability credentials.
Demand Surge from Global Canning and Surimi Processors
Capacity additions in Thailand and the Philippines are elevating raw fish requirements as surimi manufacturers integrate tuna trim into value-added sticks and analog seafood. Thai Union targets USD 7.0 billion in net sales by 2030, with its ambient division dominated by tuna, already contributing USD 1.9 billion (THB 68.4 billion) in 2024 Thai Union[2]Source: Thai Union Group, “Strategy 2030 Investor Presentation,” thaiunion.com. Rising throughput intensifies procurement competition in Western and Central Pacific auctions, putting upward pressure on ex-vessel prices.
Expansion of Long-Line Aquaculture and Closed-Cycle Ranching Capacity
Breakthroughs in broodstock management are translating into viable, closed-cycle Atlantic bluefin production. Next, Tuna produced juveniles to 10 kg in land-based tanks, enabling commercial volumes by 2028, according to the European Commission. Malta’s offshore cages already supply 90% of its aquaculture value and illustrate cash-generating potential even with feed conversion ratios of 15:1. Mediterranean investors are negotiating green bonds tied to feed efficiency targets, aiming to shave two points off financing costs. In the Asia-Pacific region, Japanese conglomerates are co-locating hatcheries with renewable-powered recirculation systems to offset energy intensity and meet carbon-neutral pledges.
Digital Vessel-Monitoring Improving Quota Utilization
Satellite-enabled vessel-monitoring systems (VMS) and electronic observers are transforming quota compliance. The Inter-American Tropical Tuna Commission mandates VMS on large longliners, and the U.S. Atlantic Highly Migratory Species program now requires two-way reporting before departure, cutting inspection costs by 11%[3]Source: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, “Atlantic HMS Electronic Technology Plan,” noaa.gov. Insurers have begun adjusting premiums downward for fleets with continuous electronic monitoring, further incentivizing uptake in developing flag states.
Restraint Impact Analysis
| Restraint | (~) % Impact on CAGR Forecast | Geographic Relevance | Impact Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|
| Accelerating vegan and alt-protein substitution | -0.9% | North America and EU, expanding to urban Asia-Pacific | Medium term (2-4 years) |
| Tightening IUU enforcement and trade bans | -0.7% | Global, with a focus on developing nations exports | Short term (≤ 2 years) |
| El Nino-driven biomass volatility and climate-induced stock migration | -0.6% | Pacific and Eastern Atlantic | Short term (≤ 2 years) |
| Capital scarcity for recirculating aquaculture systems (RAS) amid feed-price uncertainty | -0.5% | Global impacting both developed and emerging investors | Medium term (2-4 years) |
| Source: Mordor Intelligence | |||
Accelerating Vegan and Alt-Protein Substitution
Plant-based tuna analogs and cell-cultivated toro cuts are gaining traction among environmentally conscious consumers. BlueNalu partnered with Nomad Foods to develop cultivated bluefin for UK retail, capitalizing on survey data showing 92% of local sushi patrons willing to try cultured alternatives. Legacy brands have responded with hybrid formulations blending vegetable protein and skipjack mince to defend shelf space.
Tightening IUU Enforcement and Trade Bans
Customs agencies intensify scrutiny, with new USMCA provisions empowering authorities to deny entry for shipments lacking digital catch certificates. U.S. Customs and Border Protection estimates IUU accounts for 20% of worldwide catch volumes, and stepped-up interdictions have redirected part of Asia’s longline fleet to stricter licensing regimes. Producers without audited traceability risk exclusion from major supermarket chains in the EU and North America.
Geography Analysis
Asia-Pacific remains the anchor of the global tuna market, led by a 52.8% share in 2024, accounting for well over half of the catch and processing value in 2025. Japan’s 31% quota lift on bluefin for 2025, underpinned by improved stock assessment, amplifies regional supply availability, Osakana Suisankai. While these moves secure regional employment, they also heighten competition for raw materials among domestic processors. Digital catch documentation systems in the Western Pacific reduce transshipment loopholes, tightening traceability in the global tuna market.
The Middle East and Africa segment delivers the fastest 2025-2030 expansion at a projected 7.3% CAGR, reflecting sovereign food security investments and rising urban dining expenditure. Gulf Cooperation Council nations finance offshore grow-out cages and cold-chain hubs to reduce reliance on imports. The World Bank-backed Africa Program for Fisheries contributes USD 24 billion to the continental GDP, enabling coastal states to fund patrol capacity that combats IUU incursions.
North America and Europe retain mature yet strategically important consumer bases where eco-label premiums are most pronounced. The EU’s Farm-to-Fork policy raises the bar on sustainability, compelling exporters to certify chain-of-custody and carbon disclosure. Both regions witness the fastest growth in niche categories, such as sashimi-grade yellowfin and skipjack jerky, while canned volumes stagnate. Import tariffs remain low for certified eco-labels, motivating processors worldwide to upgrade monitoring systems to defend market access.
Recent Industry Developments
- May 2025: Sojitz Corporation reported JPY 346,793 million (USD 2,392.91 million) gross profit for FY 2025 in its Retail and Consumer Service segment, highlighting frozen tuna processing gains.
- April 2025: BlueNalu broadened its partnership with Nomad Foods to commercialise cell-cultivated seafood in the UK and EU, capitalising on high consumer interest in alternative bluefin toro.
- October 2024: Nissui Group finalized its domestic farming consolidation, forming Nissui Maguro for streamlined operations.
- January 2024: The Australian Fisheries Management Authority mandated upgraded VMS standards across Commonwealth fleets to reinforce sustainable fishing.
Research Methodology Framework and Report Scope
Market Definitions and Key Coverage
According to Mordor Intelligence, the tuna fish market covers all fresh, frozen, and chilled fillet formats derived from skipjack, yellowfin, bigeye, albacore, and bluefin landings, valued at ex-factory prices before any further processing.
We explicitly exclude canned, tinned, and other processed tuna products from this assessment.
Segmentation Overview
- By Geography (Production Analysis (Volume), Consumption Analysis (Volume and Value), Import Analysis (Volume and Value), Export Analysis (Volume and Value), and Price Trend Analysis)
- North America
- United States
- Canada
- South America
- Brazil
- Argentina
- Europe
- Germany
- United Kingdom
- France
- Spain
- Russia
- Asia-Pacific
- China
- Japan
- Indonesia
- Philippines
- Papua New Guinea
- Middle East
- Turkey
- United Arab Emirates
- Africa
- South Africa
- North America
Detailed Research Methodology and Data Validation
Primary Research
Mordor analysts spoke with Indonesian long-line operators, Japanese wholesalers, EU importer groups, Gulf retail buyers, and bluefin ranching specialists. These conversations verified catch-to-price conversions, clarified skipjack-to-yellowfin substitution, and stress-tested regional growth assumptions.
Desk Research
We began by extracting global catch and aquaculture volumes from FAO FishStat, ICCAT, and the Western & Central Pacific Fisheries Commission. Trade values were mapped through UN Comtrade and ITC Trademap, and consumer price series came from Eurostat and the US Bureau of Labor Statistics. Peer-reviewed journals on biomass resilience and FAO 'State of World Fisheries' reports clarified ecological constraints. Paid tools such as D&B Hoovers checked supplier revenues, while Dow Jones Factiva tracked quota or tariff shifts. The sources above are illustrative, and many additional references fed into data cleansing and triangulation.
Market-Sizing & Forecasting
A top-down model converts verified tonnage to value through weighted landing prices, then is cross-checked with a selective bottom-up roll-up of processor revenues and sampled ASP x volume. Core inputs include MSC-certified quota use, per-capita tuna intake, skipjack share in total landings, farmed bluefin output, exchange-rate shifts, and wholesale price spreads. Multivariate regression with ARIMA overlays captures biomass swings and income elasticity, while scenario analysis adjusts for policy shocks. Data gaps in supplier roll-ups are bridged with regional proxy margins confirmed during expert calls.
Data Validation & Update Cycle
Before sign-off, our team compares model outputs with ISSF stock reports and NOAA import alerts, flags anomalies, and passes the file through tiered peer review. Models refresh every twelve months, with interim tweaks triggered by quota reallocations or sharp price moves, so clients receive the latest calibrated view.
Why Mordor's Tuna Fish Market Baseline Commands Reliability
Published estimates often diverge because firms choose different product mixes, pricing levels, and refresh cadences.
Key gap drivers include rival studies valuing only canned formats, using retail shelf prices, or relying on factory-gate definitions that understate the premium fresh segment. External pages reviewed show USD 44.17 billion for 2025, USD 47.18 billion for 2024, and USD 36.12 billion for 2025.
Benchmark comparison
| Market Size | Anonymized source | Primary gap driver |
|---|---|---|
| USD 48.20 B (2025) | Mordor Intelligence | - |
| USD 44.17 B (2025) | Global Consultancy A | Excludes bluefin and uses three-year-old catch data |
| USD 47.18 B (2024) | Trade Journal B | Values retail shelf sales and lacks currency normalization |
| USD 36.12 B (2025) | Industry Association C | Reports factory-gate value, omitting fresh and frozen segments |
The comparison underscores how our disciplined scope, dual-path modeling, and annual refresh deliver a balanced, transparent baseline that decision-makers can trust.
Key Questions Answered in the Report
What is the current value of the global tuna market?
The global tuna market size reached USD 48.2 billion in 2025.
How fast is the market projected to grow?
It is projected to register a 5.8% CAGR, pushing value to USD 63.9 billion by 2030.
Which region holds the largest share?
Asia-Pacific leads with a 52.8% market share in 2024, due to extensive processing infrastructure and proximity to Western and Central Pacific fishing grounds.
Why is aquaculture gaining traction in tuna supply?
Breakthroughs in closed-cycle breeding and rising wild-catch regulation costs are encouraging investment in land-based and offshore grow-out systems.
How are sustainability certifications affecting competition?
With 91% of commercial catch linked to Marine Stewardship Council programs, certifications now function as basic entry requirements for premium markets.
What threat do alternative proteins pose to tuna producers?
Cultivated and plant-based substitutes are growing in premium segments, potentially eroding canned tuna demand, though premium eco-labeled products remain resilient.
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