Southeast Asia Solar Energy Market Size & Share Analysis - Growth Trends And Forecast (2025 - 2030)

Southeast Asia Solar Energy Market Trends and Insights

Accelerated National Renewable-Energy Targets and Carbon-Neutral Pledges

Revised power plans elevated regional solar targets in 2024 and are now anchored in energy-security economics rather than climate diplomacy. Vietnam’s updated PDP VIII calls for 30 GW of utility-scale capacity. Indonesia has doubled its 2030 goal to 9.2 GW, and Thailand has lifted its renewable electricity commitment to 30% by 2030.^{(1)Ministry of Industry and Trade, “PDP VIII,” moit.gov.vn} Higher import costs for liquefied natural gas, averaging USD 14-16 per MMBtu in 2024, pushed solar to the top of least-cost supply stacks. The Philippines awarded 3.5 GW of contracts at record-low tariffs under its Green Energy Auction Program, signalling that transparent auctions can outcompete feed-in tariffs in capital attraction. Singapore’s pledge to import 4 GW of renewables by 2035 has mobilized more than SGD 2 billion of cross-border transmission investment.

Rapid Cost Decline of Mono-PERC and TOPCon PV Modules

TOPCon module prices fell to USD 0.12-0.15 per W in 2024 as polysilicon costs slipped below USD 6 per kg, widening the performance gap with legacy PERC.^{(2)International Technology Roadmap for Photovoltaic, “14th Edition,” itrpv.net} Superior temperature coefficients deliver 4-6% higher annual yields in tropical heat, driving Vietnamese levelized costs down to USD 0.038-0.042 per kWh, well below new coal plants once environmental compliance is priced in. Indonesia’s 145 MW Cirata floating project used bifacial TOPCon panels to capture 12-15% extra generation from water-surface albedo. Secondary markets for retired PERC modules are emerging across Myanmar and Cambodia, lowering entry barriers for off-grid electrification.

Grid-Parity Rooftop PV for Commercial and Industrial Users

C&I electricity tariffs of USD 0.12-0.18 per kWh now exceed the costs of rooftop solar generation, which range from USD 0.06 to USD 0.09 per kWh, creating an immediate arbitrage opportunity. Singapore’s SolarNova program installed 350 MW on public buildings and industrial estates in 2024, backed by 15-year PPAs below SGD 0.10 per kWh.^{(3)Singapore Economic Development Board, “SolarNova Fact Sheet,” edb.gov.sg}Thailand’s Net-Metering 3.0 allows 90% export credit, lifting internal rates of return by roughly 2 percentage points and pushing rooftop applications up 42% year on year. Malaysia’s corporate-green power scheme enabled 180 MW of installations for multinational manufacturers pursuing Scope 2 abatement.

ASEAN Cross-Border Power-Trade Pilot

The Lao-Thailand-Malaysia-Singapore Power Integration Project achieved its first delivery in October 2024, setting a regulatory precedent for transnational solar flows. Singapore signed a 1.2 GW import agreement with Indonesia’s Riau Islands at tariffs of SGD 0.11-0.13 per kWh, including cable losses. Thailand is upgrading 500 kV lines to wheel 2 GW of Lao and Cambodian solar southward by 2028. A unified renewable-certificate framework adopted in 2024 now underpins corporate PPAs across borders, streamlining due diligence processes.

Land-Availability Conflicts in High-Irradiance Zones

Competition for farmland is elevating lease prices above USD 2,000 per hectare annually in Vietnam’s Ninh Thuan and Binh Thuan provinces, eroding internal rates of return by up to 1.2 percentage points. ^{(4)Vietnam Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment, “Land-Lease Bulletin 2024,” monre.gov.vn} Thailand withdrew 18,000 hectares of military land from solar allocation in 2024 to prioritize food security. Indonesia’s environmental checks add almost one year to permitting for arrays larger than 10 hectares. Floating solar on reservoirs and agrivoltaic crop-sharing schemes are emerging workarounds, albeit at 18-22% capital-cost premiums.

Weak Distribution-Grid Infrastructure in Secondary Cities

Voltage excursions above ±8% in Indonesian and Philippine feeders are forcing inverter disconnects that shave 4-7% off annual generation.^{(5)Asian Development Bank, “Distribution Grid Study 2024,” adb.org} Vietnam curtailed 1.2 TWh in 2024 due to south-north transmission bottlenecks, translating to roughly USD 200 million of lost revenue. PLN budgeted USD 2.8 billion for feeder automation and smart meters through 2028, yet coverage will still fall short of bottleneck needs. Dynamic export limits introduced by Thailand’s Provincial Electricity Authority now cap rooftop injection at 50% of the contract demand, dampening the economics of surplus sales. Large-scale batteries, such as the Philippines’ 200 MWh Masinloc system, are easing grid stress while earning capacity payments that lift solar project returns by about 1 percentage point.

Segment Analysis

By Technology: Photovoltaic Supremacy Leaves CSP Stranded

Photovoltaic installations captured the entire Southeast Asia solar energy market in 2024, making concentrated solar power commercially unviable due to direct normal irradiance seldom exceeding 1,500 kWh per m². TOPCon and heterojunction lines are pushing conversion efficiency to 24-25%, decreasing balance-of-system costs by USD 0.08-0.12 per W and sustaining a 19.4% CAGR forecast through 2030. The Southeast Asia solar energy market benefits from the scale of the Chinese supply chain: LONGi, Trina Solar, and JinkoSolar delivered landed costs 15-20% below global averages, enabling utility projects in Vietnam to clear auctions at USD 0.042-0.048 per kWh. Heterojunction modules carved out an 8% slice of premium rooftop demand in Singapore and Malaysia despite 25-30% price premiums, underscoring the willingness to pay for kW-density in space-constrained zones.

Thin-film cadmium-telluride technology gained only 2% share but posted better high-temperature yield in the Philippines’ 150 MW Calatagan project. Perovskite-silicon tandem cells are transitioning from lab to field trials at Singapore’s Solar Energy Research Institute and could enter commercial pilots by 2027, pending breakthroughs in humidity stability. Until then, crystalline silicon will continue to dominate the Southeast Asia solar energy market, with premium bifacial TOPCon projected to command more than 70% of shipments by 2030 as legacy PERC technologies retire.

Note: Segment shares of all individual segments available upon report purchase

By Grid Type: Off-Grid Surge Challenges On-Grid Dominance

On-grid projects accounted for 88.7% of the 2024 capacity; however, off-grid systems are forecast to deliver the fastest growth at a 24.7% CAGR through 2030, as they displace diesel on thousands of islands. Indonesia’s mining sector alone installed 180 MW of solar-plus-storage in 2024 to power remote nickel and bauxite operations, reducing generation costs by USD 0.18-0.22 per kWh compared to diesel. Hybrid microgrids on the Philippines’ Siargao Island now deliver 24-hour power at USD 0.16 per kWh, down from USD 0.28 per kWh diesel baselines. Pay-as-you-go home systems, financed through mobile money, have reached 280,000 households across Myanmar, Cambodia, and rural Indonesia, with repayment rates exceeding 92%.

The Southeast Asia solar energy market share for off-grid applications remains modest, yet rising policy support for universal electrification and new smart-meter mandates are likely to expand hosting capacity for islanded systems. Regulatory clarity is still elusive in Thailand and Malaysia, but anticipated rural electrification tenders could unlock bundled solar-storage concessions over the forecast period.

By End-User: Residential Rooftop Gains as Utility-Scale Matures

Utility-scale projects captured 76.9% of new capacity in 2024, underpinned by auctions in Vietnam, Thailand, and the Philippines, with clearing prices ranging from USD 0.042 to USD 0.048 per kWh. Even so, the residential segment is expected to outpace the market at a 23.9% CAGR through 2030, as module prices fall below USD 0.15 per W and payback periods drop under six years in Thailand, Malaysia, and urban Indonesia. In Thailand, 420 MW of household installations, concentrated around Bangkok and Chiang Mai, leveraged 90% net-metering export credits, creating a strong arbitrage. Malaysia’s zero-export net-energy-metering cut permitting cycles from 90 days to under 30, spurring a 28% jump in installations during 2024.

C&I rooftops added 850 MW in 2024, a 37% increase year-over-year, as multinational electronics and automotive plants secured PPAs at rates below local retail tariffs. Battery-storage attachments rose from 8% in 2023 to 22% in 2024 among C&I projects, primarily to avoid export caps and maximize on-site consumption. Vietnam’s residential adoption cooled after net-metering suspension in December 2024, freezing 180 MW of planned projects pending new tariff structures.

Note: Segment shares of all individual segments available upon report purchase

Geography Analysis

Vietnam maintained a 58.5% share of installed capacity in 2024, following the implementation of feed-in tariffs that triggered 16.5 GW of new installations. However, curtailment reached 1.2 TWh due to transmission upgrades lagging. Indonesia possesses 1,200 GW of technical potential, but only 0.3 GW is currently online due to capped tariffs and a state-utility monopsony, setting the stage for accelerated adoption once cross-border export routes to Singapore materialize. The Philippines is pivoting toward mega-solar: the 3.5 GW Terra Solar plant, announced in 2024, will become the world’s largest solar-plus-storage project upon operationalization in 2027. Thailand’s balanced 4.2 GW fleet benefits from an adder of THB 0.50 per kWh for projects with storage or agrivoltaics, reinforcing the margin resilience of Thai developers.

Malaysia’s 2.1 GW base is concentrated in Peninsular load centers, while superior irradiance in Sabah and Sarawak remains under-tapped due to limited transmission. Singapore’s 870 MW domestic limit drove the 2024 signing of 1.2 GW import PPAs from Indonesia and 400 MW from Cambodia, cementing cross-border sourcing as a core pillar of the Southeast Asia solar energy market. Brunei’s pipeline is the region’s fastest, slated to expand from 15 MW in 2024 to 200 MW by 2027, driven by sovereign-wealth hydrogen diversification. Cambodia, Lao PDR, and Myanmar together added 380 MW in 2024, anchored by Cambodia’s 100 MW Kampong Chhnang array and Lao PDR’s export-focused projects.

Note: Segment shares of all individual segments available upon report purchase