Romania Power Market Size & Share Analysis - Growth Trends And Forecast (2025 - 2030)

Romania Power Market Trends and Insights

EU Green Deal Decarbonisation Targets Drive Capacity Additions

Romania’s pledge to supply 38% of electricity from renewables by 2030 has reoriented national planning toward wind, solar, and hydropower build-out. Approval of a EUR 3 billion CfD program in November 2024 allocated 5 GW at winning strike prices of EUR 65/MWh for wind and EUR 51/MWh for solar, well below the 2024 day-ahead wholesale average.^{[1]European Commission, “State Aid SA.109966 (2023/N)–Romania–Contracts for Difference Scheme,” europa.eu} Utility-scale solar installations jumped by 2 GW in 2024 alone, illustrating how quickly projects move once grid links and land permits are secured. Wind growth lags due to longer environmental assessments, yet Dobrogea’s 7 m/s resource remains attractive for developers with seasoned local partners. The upcoming carbon border adjustment mechanism further encourages domestic manufacturers to switch to low-carbon electricity, reinforcing demand certainty for new plants.

Rising Corporate PPA Demand from Energy-Intensive Exporters

Romanian automotive, steel, and chemicals groups now favor multi-year PPAs to hedge OPCOM price swings and satisfy Scope 2 reporting under the Corporate Sustainability Reporting Directive. NextE’s 42.9 MW on-site solar deal signed in 2024 priced power near EUR 50/MWh, beating the prior year’s EUR 90–120/MWh wholesale range. This differential triggered fresh tenders in Timiș and Argeș and pushed local lenders to refine credit benchmarks for long-term offtakes. An EIB survey found 81% of firms rating energy costs a top competitiveness threat, with 57% spending on on-site efficiency upgrades and 90% on greenhouse-gas measures.^{[2]European Investment Bank, “EIB Investment Survey 2024–Romania Factsheet,” eib.org} As the PPA ban lifted in 2022, bankable offtakes became feasible, transferring volume risk away from utilities and into bilateral contracts.

EU-Funded Grid-Modernisation Grants Unlock Transmission Capacity

Transelectrica received EUR 56.2 million in 2024 to pilot solar-plus-storage at 29 high-voltage substations, aiming to smooth renewable ramps and defer costly line upgrades.^{[3]Transelectrica, “RRF Pilot Projects,” transelectrica.ro} The EBRD’s EUR 100 million loan to PPC’s distribution arm and Electrica’s EUR 171 million smart-meter rollout anchors wider digitalization that improves load forecasting and voltage management. Romania’s vintage 1970s network lacks dynamic line rating, leading to midday solar curtailment in southern counties. Competitive auctions for scarce grid-connection capacity, proposed by ANRE in 2024, intend to prioritize projects offering firm capacity or co-located batteries. Without these upgrades, the 5 GW awarded under the CfD scheme risk commissioning delays and squeezed returns.

Newly-Approved Black Sea Offshore Wind Framework

Law 128/2024 opened Romania’s exclusive economic zone to 3–7 GW of offshore wind by 2035, giving developers access to capacity factors above 45% and avoiding much of the onshore permitting pushback.^{[4]World Bank, “Romania Offshore Wind Roadmap,” worldbank.org} The BSOG consortium targets a 3 GW shallow-water array with the first turbines expected in 2027, while Verbund secured leases for adjacent sites. Absence of a pre-built offshore grid requires private financing of subsea cables, adding EUR 1–2 million/km and lengthening payback periods. A Germany-style centralized grid model could cut costs and accelerate schedules, but would need fresh legislation and public funding.

High Upfront CAPEX & Permitting Lead-Times

Utility-scale PV typically clears permits within three years, yet wind projects average 6.5 years because multi-agency reviews include environment, heritage, and land-use approvals. Archaeological rules require digs within 500 m of ancient sites, impacting roughly 30% of planned Dobrogea wind locations. Developers also shoulder substation costs that can exceed EUR 50 million before grid access is guaranteed. ANRE’s proposal for capacity auctions adds further uncertainty, potentially pushing smaller independent power producers out of contention, given higher carrying costs.

Ageing Grid Causes Renewable Curtailment Risk

Legacy conductors lack phase-shifting transformers, so Transelectrica cuts renewable output during high-irradiance or high-wind intervals to preserve system frequency. Curtailment reached 150 GWh in 2024, equal to -1% of renewable production, and could double by 2027 without accelerated upgrades. Battery pilots at 29 substations help, yet nationwide reinforcement needs EUR 2–3 billion, well beyond the current EU grant envelope. Distribution feeders in rural solar clusters also breach voltage limits, requiring reactive-power devices that add unforeseen OPEX for utilities.

Segment Analysis

By Power Source: Renewables Dominate Amid Coal Phase-Out

Renewables contributed 68.3% of 2024 capacity, and their 8.6% growth pace keeps the Romania power market size expansion aligned with EU emission goals. Hydropower alone held a 33.47% share, courtesy of Hidroelectrica’s 6.5 GW fleet that supports peak shaving and frequency response. Wind capacity reached 3 GW, with 2.5 GW more awarded in the CfD auction at EUR 65/MWh, pricing that underlines a maturing cost curve. Solar jumped past 5.3 GW after 2 GW was connected in 2024, helped by modules priced below USD 0.18/W and fast-track permits for projects under 10 MW. The Black Sea offshore framework could add 3–7 GW by 2035, giving Romania a fresh nucleus for high-factor generation and bolstering energy-security margins. Gas-fired capacity rises modestly as flexible CCGTs linked to Neptun Deep output replace retiring coal. Nuclear remains vital; Cernavoda Units 1-2 generate one-fifth of supply, while Units 3-4 plus the 462 MW Doicești SMR will anchor firm, low-carbon baseload later in the decade.

The shift reshapes asset economics, as capacity-weighted average LCOE for new projects reaches EUR 48/MWh for solar and EUR 56/MWh for onshore wind, both below 2024 wholesale prices. Curtailment risk tempers enthusiasm in congestion-prone southern counties, yet co-located storage can secure higher balancing fees. Accordingly, project sponsors aggregate PV with 4-hour batteries sized at 25% of nameplate capacity to capture arbitrage spreads.

Note: Segment shares of all individual segments available upon report purchase

By End User: Industrial Offtakers Accelerate PPA Adoption

Utilities still owned 65.9% of capacity in 2024, but the 9.1% CAGR expected for commercial and industrial offtakers signals a decisive decentralization of the Romania power market. Automotive hubs in Timiș and Argeș host rooftop solar arrays coupled with lithium-ion batteries that flatten demand peaks and cut grid fees. NextE’s 42.9 MW PPA at EUR 50/MWh triggers competitive follow-ons, with multinationals demanding supply chain carbon cuts ahead of the 2026 carbon border adjustment. Lenders restrict PPAs to investment-grade buyers, limiting access for SMEs and concentrating deals among export-oriented corporates.

Residential prosumers already add meaningful volume: systems average 13 kW and feed surplus into distribution networks under yearly net-billing terms, raising the Romania power market size for distributed generation. Smart-meter deployment unlocks time-of-use rates and prospective VPP remuneration, though settlement backlogs frustrate early adopters. Utilities respond by proposing tariff structures that reward afternoon self-consumption to relieve network stress.

Note: Segment shares of all individual segments available upon report purchase

Geography Analysis

Dobrogea hosts the largest wind clusters and will likely anchor the first Romanian offshore projects, giving the region both onshore and maritime leverage over future renewable additions. Transmission corridors to Bucharest are mid-upgrade, and sustained curtailment risk remains until 2027 line reinforcements come online. Oltenia’s high irradiance propels solar greenfield activity, with over 40% of the 2 GW PV built in 2024 situated here. Retiring lignite assets in Turceni and Rovinari free up skilled labor and grid nodes ideally suited to solar-plus-storage retrofits.

Transylvania blends moderate wind and solar resources with strong industrial demand, making it fertile ground for corporate PPAs. Cross-border lines into Hungary and Serbia enable exporters to arbitrage spot spreads, improving project bankability. Banat benefits from the new 400 kV Serbia link, which trimmed redispatch costs for wind farms during winter 2024 congestion events.

Bucharest and Ilfov account for roughly one-fifth of national consumption. Lacking local generation, the capital relies on inland hydropower, Dobrogea wind, and imported baseload. Smart-meter rollouts improve peak-load visibility and support demand-response pilots that shave evening ramps. Ongoing synchronization work with Ukraine and Moldova positions Romania as a continental transit hub, enhancing merchant revenue options for generators grappling with domestic price caps.