Modified Bitumen Market Size & Share Analysis - Growth Trends and Forecast (2026 - 2031)

Global Modified Bitumen Market Trends and Insights

Road-Building Stimulus in the US IIJA, EU CEF-2, and India PM-Gatishakti

Multi-year lettings, fueled by substantial funding allocations, are driving up the consumption of polymer-modified asphalt. The US Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act has earmarked significant funds for highways. While a large portion of this amount is obligated, only a fraction has been spent as of September 2025, hinting at a purchasing peak in the coming years. In India, the PM-Gatishakti corridors and the PMGSY-IV rural-road initiative are set to cover extensive kilometers, utilizing waste plastic and cold-mix technologies. This move is set to accelerate the adoption of SBS, especially in emerging states. Meanwhile, Europe’s CEF-2 program has tied a significant portion of its budget to climate objectives, pushing projects towards using recycled rubber and bio-polymer binders^{[1]European Commission, “Connecting Europe Facility-2 Transport Programme,” ec.europa.eu}. Suppliers boasting regional blending terminals, sourcing both SBS and APP, and maintaining pre-approved product lists are reaping the benefits as agencies shorten bid timelines. The cumulative result is a notable surge in volumes, albeit unevenly distributed across regions, bolstering the modified bitumen market for the foreseeable future.

Tightening Asphalt-Performance Specs in China JTGF40-2021 and Austroads Hybrid-PMB Standards

China's JTGF40-2021 has set new rutting-resistance thresholds for expressways with high daily traffic, effectively mandating the use of SBS-rich mixes^{[2]Ministry of Transport China, “JTGF40-2021 Technical Specifications for Highway Asphalt Pavements,” mot.gov.cn}. Enforcement began in 2024 in Guangdong and Zhejiang, leading to an increase in SBS demand. Austroads' guidelines for hybrid binders advocate a blend of SBS and crumb rubber, achieving a balance between high-temperature stability and low-temperature flexibility. This approach allows a reduction in polymer dosage while still meeting fatigue criteria. These evolving standards not only shorten payback periods for polymer-blending plants but also narrow competition to pre-qualified suppliers. Furthermore, they expedite the diffusion of technology to ASEAN nations that are adopting codes from Australasia. Contractors who neglect to upgrade their formulations face the risk of warranty voids and project delays. This scenario underscores the growing entrenchment of polymer-modified asphalt specifications within the modified bitumen market.

Shift to Self-Adhered and Cold-Applied Membranes Cutting Labor-Site Fires

In the United States, open-flame torch applications spark numerous roofing fires each year. This surge in incidents is pushing liability premiums upward and shrinking the pool of certified installers. Self-adhered membranes, favored under tightening fire codes in states like California and New York, as well as in Germany, not only slash installation time but also eliminate potential ignition sources. In 2025, industry giants GAF, Firestone, and SOPREMA introduced cold-applied liquid membranes that cure at ambient temperatures, extending their usability in chillier climates. As certified torch installers command high wages in major metropolitan areas, the resultant installer shortage is steering specifications towards self-adhered systems, even with their premium material costs. This labor-driven pivot is amplifying the demand for APP and hybrid membranes, fortifying the modified bitumen market against its usual road-centric fluctuations.

Recycled-Rubber Quotas in EU Green Deal Roads

By 2027, the EU's Circular Economy Action Plan mandates that EU-funded asphalt incorporate post-consumer tire rubber. This move creates a dedicated market for crumb-rubber-modified binders. In pilot projects across the Netherlands, France, and Spain, tire waste was successfully diverted per ton of asphalt, all while adhering to EN 12697 fatigue standards. Large blenders, equipped with in-house grinding capabilities, benefit from economies of scale. However, it's worth noting that this additional processing increases the asphalt cost. Suppliers are now patenting pre-treatment chemistries to counteract low-temperature brittleness. They foresee these innovations gaining traction, especially as the Green Deal procurement transitions from pilot phases to mainstream projects. Looking ahead, the quotas for recycled rubber are poised to provide a consistent boost to the modified bitumen market.

Crude-Oil Price Volatility Squeezing Modifier Economics

In 2025, Brent crude prices remained steady. However, in Asia, SBS spot prices surged due to tight butadiene supplies, leading to a reduction in blender margins. OPEC+ production curbs have kept forward prices elevated. In response to rising feedstock costs, polymer manufacturers are signaling price increases. Notably, government road contracts in India and Southeast Asia seldom incorporate price-escalation clauses, compelling blenders to shoulder the financial spread. While integrated oil majors with their own polymer assets remain shielded from these fluctuations, independent blenders are feeling the squeeze, facing pressures that could lead to consolidation and a diminished supplier diversity in the modified bitumen market.

Skilled Torch-Applicator Shortages in North America and Europe

The share of the United States roofing workers aged 55 and older has increased, while apprenticeship enrollments have declined, creating a noticeable labor gap. Germany is witnessing similar aging trends, leading to higher hourly wages for certified torch applicators. This labor shortage not only delays project timelines but also drives up costs for installed membranes. As a result, building owners are increasingly opting for self-adhered or cold-applied systems. Unless new installation methods gain widespread acceptance, the ongoing workforce attrition is likely to hinder growth in the modified bitumen market's roofing applications.

Segment Analysis

By Modifier Type: SBS Dominance Meets APP’s Heat-Reflective Surge

SBS accounted for 39.75% of the modified bitumen market share in 2025 on the strength of its low-temperature flexibility, especially for Canadian and northern European highways where thermal cracking dictates maintenance cycles. As road agencies in China, the United States, and Europe begin to incorporate SBS performance into their design manuals, the market size for SBS-linked modified bitumen is projected to grow steadily through 2031. APP, by contrast, is forecast to grow at a 4.29% CAGR, propelled by Middle Eastern and North African roofing mandates that require high solar-reflectance membranes under ambient temperatures exceeding 70 °C.

Demand for modified bitumen adjusts according to regional climates and regulatory codes. For instance, while SBS is favored in cold-climate resurfacing initiatives—such as Japan's expressway rehabilitation—APP is the go-to choice for hot, arid regions, especially for warehouse roofs equipped with photovoltaic arrays. Hybrid blends of crumb-rubber and SBS meet the EU's recycled-content standards but remain a niche segment due to challenges in quality control. Meanwhile, early-stage bio-polymer modifiers, currently categorized under "Others," are on the brink of expansion, especially if carbon pricing helps narrow their cost disparity. Suppliers adept at balancing their capacities between SBS and APP can navigate regional fluctuations and tap into the changing dynamics of the modified bitumen market.

Note: Segment shares of all individual segments available upon report purchase

By Application Method: Hot Asphalt Holds Specification Ground

Hot-mix asphalt secured 45.74% of revenue in 2025 and will keep a 4.01% CAGR, buoyed by entrenched highway specifications that favor high-temperature polymer dispersion and dense aggregate packing. Hot-mix plants in the United States are reaping the rewards of a highway rehabilitation budget, while in China, a plant-upgrade program is making waves. These developments are driving the growth of the modified bitumen market.

Cold-mix technologies are scaling in India’s rural-road builds, cutting curing time to 6 hours and enabling traffic resumption the same day. Torch-applied roofing remains standard in emerging markets, but installer shortages in North America and Europe are shifting share toward self-adhered membranes. Over the forecast horizon, hot mix retains primacy for high-traffic roadways, while cold and self-adhered methods capture incremental growth in maintenance, rural, and roofing niches, diversifying the application-method composition of the modified bitumen market.

By Application: Road Construction’s Infrastructure Tailwinds

Road construction represented 75.05% of 2025 revenue, underpinned by deferred maintenance backlogs in the United States and multi-lane expressway rollouts in India and China. This segment of the modified bitumen market size is forecast to register a 3.96% CAGR through 2031 as the U.S. IIJA outlays peak and China’s western provinces tackle connectivity gaps.  

Roofing and waterproofing are driven by data-center and warehouse builds that favor modified-bitumen membranes compatible with rooftop solar installations. While road volumes dwarf roofing tonnage, membranes offer higher gross margins and steadier demand, allowing producers to balance portfolio risk. “Other” uses, such as bridge-deck waterproofing and airport runways, supply niche but stable volume streams, further broadening the demand base of the modified bitumen market.

Note: Segment shares of all individual segments available upon report purchase

Geography Analysis

Asia-Pacific generated 44.36% of 2025 revenue, driven by China's addition of expressways and India's expansion of highways. Yet, as eastern provinces of China approach network saturation, growth has moderated. Concurrently, India grapples with land-acquisition delays, extending its tender-to-award cycles. Japan, investing heavily annually, emphasizes SBS polymers for expressway overlays, aiming to mitigate fatigue on its aging pavements. Meanwhile, ASEAN's demand surges, buoyed by ADB-financed industrial corridor projects, though challenges like currency risks and political shifts loom large.

The Middle-East and Africa region is poised for the fastest 5.98% CAGR. Major investments in transport pipelines, roads for new administrative capitals, and freeway rehabilitation spur this growth. Additionally, the GCC's building codes mandate SRI-compliant APP membranes, while South Africa pushes for recycled-rubber, both bolstering volume prospects. However, the region grapples with funding volatility tied to oil prices and overarching security concerns.

North America and Europe are set to grow at a more tempered pace. As these mature networks pivot from expansion to maintenance, challenges arise. The U.S. National Bridge Inventory flags numerous structures in need of deck membranes. Yet, with IIJA allocations set to wane post-2026 and gas-tax revenues dipping due to rising EV adoption, the future looks uncertain. Across the Atlantic, Europe's CEF-2 dedicates a limited portion of its budget to highways, confining growth to essential resurfacing and urban retrofits. South America, though small and cyclical, sees a glimmer of hope: Brazil's toll concessions for 2024-2025 spark demand, yet macroeconomic instability casts a shadow on the outlook.