Mobile Payments Market Size & Share Analysis - Growth Trends and Forecast (2026 - 2031)

Global Mobile Payments Market Trends and Insights

Explosive UPI and Pix-Style Real-Time Rails Adoption

India’s Unified Payments Interface handled 228 billion transactions worth INR 300 trillion (USD 3.61 trillion) in 2025, equal to 83% of national retail digital volume, validating that real-time, zero-interchange rails can eclipse card usage once consumer familiarity and merchant ubiquity align. Brazil’s Pix reached 170 million adults and 20 million companies within four years, with person-to-business flows growing fastest as QR scans replace boleto slips.^{[1]Banco Central do Brasil, “Pix Payment System Statistics,” bcb.gov.br} Instant settlement slashes working-capital strain and bolsters monetary-policy transmission, prompting Singapore, Malaysia, and the European Union to accelerate similar rollouts.

Subsidised Merchant MDRs Fueling QR-Code Uptake

Indonesia’s QRIS regime caps merchant discount rates at 0.7% for small-ticket transactions and guarantees interoperability across 30 e-wallets, expanding acceptance to 21 million points by 2024.^{[2]Bank Indonesia, “QRIS Statistics and Regulations,” bi.go.id} Vietnam mirrored the tactic, waiving MDRs for micro-merchants and registering 892% year-on-year QR volume growth in January 2024. Governments justify the subsidies by enlarging the tax base and shrinking cash-handling costs, while wallet providers pivot to value-added services such as inventory analytics and loyalty engines.

Super-App Ecosystem Lock-Ins in East and Southeast Asia

Alipay and WeChat Pay processed more than 90% of China’s mobile payments in 2025, embedding mini-programs that bundle shopping, ride-hailing, wealth management, and insurance, which makes wallet switching onerous. GrabPay’s 40 million monthly users across Southeast Asia illustrate the model’s portability, delivering USD 9.4 billion in gross merchandise value in Q3 2024. Regulators are responding; China’s central bank ordered Alipay-WeChat interoperability in 2024, hinting at future antitrust interventions elsewhere.

Interchange-Free A2A Wallets Compressing Card Fees

The U.S. FedNow network connected 900 institutions by 2024, enabling account-pull checkouts that save merchants 1-3 percentage-points in fees. Europe’s SEPA Instant Payments mandate, effective January 2025, requires euro transfers to settle in under 10 seconds, catalyzing merchant adoption of open-banking-initiated payments. Merchants report 40-60% fee savings and zero chargeback exposure, pressuring card schemes to reposition as fraud-protection layers rather than primary rails.

High Chargeback Ratios in Cross-Border Wallet-Funded Transactions

Wallet-funded cross-border e-commerce sees chargeback rates of 1-2%, roughly quadruple domestic card levels, due to inconsistent authentication, currency disputes, and regulatory divergence.^{[3]Visa, “Chargeback Statistics,” visa.com} Merchants often respond by geo-blocking high-risk corridors, which then constrains wallet adoption and stifles growth in the mobile payments market. Networks are investing in real-time fraud scoring, yet liability rules remain patchy, discouraging universal acceptance.

Fragmented Tokenisation Standards Hindering Cross-Wallet Acceptance

EMVCo’s token framework is interpreted differently across regions, leading to lifecycle and cryptogram mismatches that degrade authorization success for cross-border shoppers.^{[4]EMVCo, “Payment Token Service Provider Specifications,” emvco.com} Retailers juggling multiple token vaults face higher costs and elevated cart-abandonment risk, undercutting one of the core convenience benefits that the mobile payments market promises.

Segment Analysis

By Mode of Payment: Physical Retail Infrastructure Anchors Volume, Digital Channels Capture Growt

Point of sales transactions delivered 67.89% of 2025 volume, underscoring the still-dominant role of NFC terminals and QR acceptance in brick-and-mortar settings. Nevertheless, online channels are forecast to grow at an 11.43% CAGR through 2031, reflecting expanding super-app ecosystems and one-click guest checkouts that remove traditional form-fill friction. Stripe’s 2024 Fastlane launch demonstrated a sub-30-second guest flow, lifting conversions markedly. While hardware refresh cycles slow point-of-sale upgrades, software distribution for e-commerce is near-instant, letting small merchants in under-banked regions tap digital wallets without card contracts. As a result, the mobile payments market is likely to see rapid share rebalancing despite the entrenched in-store base.

Evolving security requirements, notably PSD2’s strong customer authentication, initially impeded online adoption but are now largely invisible to consumers due to biometric pass-through in leading wallets. Where tap-to-ride transit systems normalize habitual phone payments, adjacent quick-service outlets are following suit, blurring the historical line between physical and digital checkout.

By Payment Type: SMS and USSD Wallets Retain Reach, QR Codes Lead Momentum

Other payment types—chiefly SMS and USSD wallets—held 48.67% share in 2025, proving indispensable where feature phones dominate and internet access is patchy. QR-based methods, however, are tracking a 12.24% CAGR as merchants appreciate zero hardware costs and governments subsidize MDRs. Indonesia’s interoperable QRIS and India’s Bharat QR exemplify how public standards ignite competition among private wallets without locking merchants into proprietary codes.  

61 million users in 18 African nations move value over USSD rails, bypassing the need for smartphones. Still, as entry-level Android handsets fall below USD 50, QR acceptance is expected to leapfrog older modalities, expanding the mobile payments market size in rural locales formerly reliant on cash.

By Transaction Type: Social Transfers Dominate Counts, Commercial Flows Drive Value

Peer-to-peer transfers represented 61.92% of 2025 transaction counts, energized by wedding gifts, informal commerce, and migrant remittances. Yet person-to-business volumes are projected to log a 13.17% CAGR as real-time rails eliminate cash-on-delivery and gig-economy payouts migrate to wallets. India’s Paytm, with 10.5 million QR merchants, exemplifies the pivot from gratuities to structured commerce.  

Recurring bill frameworks such as India’s Bharat Bill Payment System are automating utilities and insurance debits, making digital wallets sticky and predictable revenue generators. Consequently, the mobile payments market share of commercial flows is set to rise even if P2P remains transaction-count heavy.

By Application: Retail Commands Today, Transit and Logistics Accelerate Tomorrow

Retail and e-commerce absorbed 31.59% of 2025 mobile payments market size, reflecting grocery, apparel, and restaurant dominance. Transit and logistics, however, are expanding at a 10.56% CAGR as NFC fare gates proliferate and freight platforms embed instantaneous wallet settlements. Transport for London processed 1.7 million daily contactless taps in 2024, with 70% issued from phones, proving that the daily commute entrenches behavioral change.  

Government-to-person disbursements also matter; India’s Direct Benefit Transfer funneled INR 9.4 trillion (USD 113 billion) to citizens in 2024, legitimizing wallets as official channels. Over the forecast period, public sector and healthcare payments are poised to climb as regulators digitize tax and license workflows, fortifying the mobile payments industry against cash leakage.

Geography Analysis

Asia-Pacific remains the epicenter of the mobile payments market, anchored by Alipay and WeChat Pay capturing over 90% of China’s transactions and locking 1.33 billion users into super-app webs. India’s UPI contributed INR 300 trillion (USD 3.61 trillion) of 2025 value, equal to 83% of domestic retail digital activity. Southeast Asia is rising quickly; GrabPay’s 40 million monthly users and Indonesia’s 21 million QRIS merchants illustrate regional replication potential. Japan and South Korea continue to post high tap-to-pay penetration, with Kakao Pay processing KRW 183 trillion (USD 141 billion) in 2023.

Latin America is the second-fastest region as Brazil’s Pix moved BRL 26.4 trillion (USD 5.28 trillion) in 2024 and achieved 76.4% adult penetration. Mercado Pago processed USD 134 billion in total payment value in 2023 and is leveraging transaction data to underwrite consumer credit. Mexico’s CoDi and Argentina’s inflationary environment are also nudging cash users toward wallets.

The Middle East is accelerating through policy targets, with the UAE at 95% smartphone penetration and Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 mandating cashless ecosystems. MTN Mobile Money’s agent-assisted onboarding offsets biometric KYC gaps, yet tier-2 banks lack infrastructure, slowing broader wallet rollout. North America and Europe show slower headline growth but benefit from transit-led NFC habit formation and impending open-banking boosters like SEPA Instant.