Middle-east And Africa Wind Power Market Size & Share Analysis - Growth Trends And Forecast (2025 - 2030)

Middle-East And Africa Wind Power Market Trends and Insights

Government Renewable-Energy Targets & Auctions

National auction programs underpin project pipelines. Saudi Arabia targets 50% clean electricity by 2030 with 16 GW of wind capacity, achieving a record USD 0.0199 per kWh tariff at Dumat Al Jandal in 2024. Egypt aims to achieve 7.2 GW of wind energy by 2035, backed by USD 3.2 billion in multilateral financing. Morocco’s 10 GW target for 2030 exploits Atlantic resources, while the UAE channels 12% of its 2050 generation mix toward wind. These synchronized mandates reduce demand risk, attract tier-one financiers, and encourage supply-chain localization.

Falling On-Shore LCOE Below Regional Fossil Benchmarks

Wind costs have dropped below USD 0.03 per kWh in Morocco, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia, which is lower than natural-gas tariffs of USD 0.035-0.045 per kWh.^{[1]International Renewable Energy Agency, “Renewable Power Generation Costs 2025,” irena.org} Dumat Al Jandal’s 2024 tariff came in 40% under fossil alternatives. Morocco’s Tarfaya complex sells at USD 0.025 per kWh, making cross-border exports commercially viable. Gulf of Suez projects operate at capacity factors above 40%, reinforcing the economic argument for wind investment.

Expansion of Corporate PPAs from Data-Center & Mining Sectors

Hyperscale data-center operators and miners secure multi-gigawatt PPAs to meet sustainability demands and tame grid volatility. Microsoft signed a 500 MW, 10-year wind contract in Egypt’s Gulf of Suez. Saudi aluminum and phosphate producers pursue fixed-price wind deals that offset 30-40% of energy costs. In South Africa, miners have lined up 1.2 GW in wind PPAs to bypass Eskom load-shedding.

Grid-Expansion Investments Across GCC & East Africa

The GCC Interconnection Authority is investing USD 2.1 billion through 2030 to transport surplus wind generation across member states.^{[2]GCC Interconnection Authority, “Planned Network Expansion 2025–2030,” gcchvdc.com} Saudi Arabia’s 3,000 km transmission build-out channels 16 GW of renewables toward demand centers. Egypt deploys USD 1.8 billion in upgrades that link the Gulf of Suez wind to the Nile Delta. Kenya’s Last Mile Connectivity Project integrates distributed wind, while Ethiopia emphasizes export-oriented interties.

Policy Uncertainty in Several Sub-Saharan Markets

Nigeria’s shifting feed-in tariffs and multi-layer permitting elevate financing spreads by 150–200 basis points. Kenya’s new grid codes create transition delays, Ghana faces currency fluctuations that inflate capacity payments, and Ethiopia’s regional conflicts hinder wind corridor development. These issues stretch development timelines by up to 18 months and temper near-term capacity additions outside stable auction jurisdictions.

Grid Stability & Curtailment Risk

Egypt curtails 8–12% of its wind output in peak periods due to thermal-dispatch prioritization and limited storage capacity.^{[3]Egyptian Electricity Transmission Company, “Annual Grid Curtailment Report 2024,” eetc.gov.eg} South Africa’s aging network triggers balancing costs, while Morocco’s southern bottlenecks cut capacity factors by 5 to 8%. Saudi and UAE grid modernizations aim to resolve such constraints; however, integration schedules often lag behind initial commissioning by several years.

Segment Analysis

By Location: On-shore Dominance Masks Offshore Potential

Onshore projects are expected to control the entire Middle East and Africa wind power market in 2024 and sustain a 16.5% CAGR to 2030, driven by mature supply chains and low capital costs. South Africa’s Eastern Cape farms and Saudi Arabia’s Dumat Al Jandal demonstrate performance with capacity factors of nearly 40%.^{[4]Vestas, “Dumat Al Jandal Project Brief,” vestas.com} Morocco’s Atlantic villas exceed 45% factors thanks to consistent trade winds.

Offshore potential is substantial. The Red Sea coasts offer water depths of 20–50 m with wind speeds of 9 m/s. NEOM’s 4 GW plan aims to anchor the first projects by 2028. Egypt is lining up 10 GW of offshore prospects and is negotiating concessional European financing. As pilot arrays prove bankable, the Middle East and Africa wind power market may diversify rapidly toward offshore capacity after 2027.

By Turbine Capacity: Scaling Up for Efficiency

The 3 to 6 MW class dominated 2024 installations. The Middle East and Africa wind power market share for this class stands at 74.8%, reflecting road transport constraints and established operational and maintenance (O&M) expertise. Vestas V150-4.2 MW and GE 3.8-130 account for the bulk of deliveries, supported by local service hubs.

Turbines with a capacity of≥6 MW are expected to grow at the fastest rate, with a 19.4% CAGR, to 2030, as developers favor fewer foundations per megawatt. Siemens Gamesa SG 6.0-170 and Nordex Delta4000 lines gain traction in Egyptian and Saudi tenders. Sub-3 MW machines continue serving the community and rugged-terrain projects where route surveys limit blade dimensions. Manufacturer investments in regional component parks further accelerate the trend of upsizing.

By Application: Industrial Demand Drives Growth

Utility-scale projects captured 85.1% of deployed capacity in 2024, following successive auctions in Saudi, and South Africa. Still, commercial and industrial demand expands at a 20.9% CAGR as data centers and heavy industry pursue cost efficiencies and sustainability certifications. Microsoft’s 500 MW deal in Egypt sets a precedent for tech-sector commitments. Mining firms in South Africa and Saudi metals producers rely on wind PPAs to comply with forthcoming carbon border taxes.

Community schemes gather pace in Morocco, Kenya, and South Africa. These 5–50 MW projects offer local ownership and simplified permits. South Africa has earmarked 2.3 GW for community entities, enabling rural electrification and local job creation. Growth in this niche supports distributed generation and grid-edge resilience.

Note: Segment shares of all individual segments available upon report purchase

Geography Analysis

South Africa leads in capacity deployment, with 30.9% of 2024 installations, and possesses the most mature auction framework. The Western and Eastern Cape zones deliver 35–42% capacity factors. A USD 0.037 per kWh clearing price in the latest bid round highlights cost competitiveness. Grid challenges hasten corporate PPAs, while a domestic tower and blade cluster lowers logistics complexity.

Saudi Arabia registers the Middle East and Africa wind power market’s fastest expansion at 25.6% CAGR to 2030. Dumat Al Jandal’s 850 MW success validates wind as a baseload source. Localization rules compel 35% domestic content, catalyzing supply-chain transfer. NEOM’s offshore and hydrogen integration further elevates market depth. The Public Investment Fund maintains demand visibility through its USD 50 billion renewable pipeline.

Egypt anchors development in the Gulf of Suez corridor, where average wind speeds exceed 10 m/s and projects achieve capacity factors of over 40%. A USD 3.2 billion European financing package backs this national strategy. Morocco leverages Atlantic exposure and European interconnections for export gains. The UAE and Jordan are pushing pilot offshore arrays and hybrid PV-wind farms. Iran’s vast resources remain under-exploited due to sanctions and limited access to technology.

Note: Segment shares of all individual segments available upon report purchase