Iran Wind Energy Market Size & Share Analysis - Growth Trends and Forecast (2026 - 2031)

Iran Wind Energy Market Trends and Insights

Government 10-GW Target & SATBA Incentives Accelerate Procurement

Iran’s Seventh National Development Plan calls for 30,000 MW of renewables by 2030, including 5,000 MW of wind. SATBA signed 11 GW of MoUs with private developers in 2024, and new rules in December 2024 reduced licensing hurdles and opened National Development Fund credit lines.^{(1)“SATBA seeking investors to develop renewable power plants,” Tehran Times, tehrantimes.com} The 9.5 ¢/kWh tariff valid for 4.5 years cushions exchange-rate swings, while tradable PPAs create price discovery on IRENEX. Together, these measures draw domestic capital into the Iranian wind energy market and lessen reliance on scarce foreign financing. The program also prioritizes high-wind regions, which supports rapid capacity gains through 2030.

Growing Power-Supply Deficit & Load-Shedding Pressure Drive Urgency

Operational capacity stood near 62,000 MW in 2024 against peaks up to 80,000 MW, leaving gaps that produced blackouts in Tehran and factory shutdowns in Isfahan. Gas shortages forced plants to burn diesel, raising costs and emissions. Grid losses of 13% compound the shortage. High-quality wind in Sistan-Baluchestan supplies power during hot summer peaks, easing pressure on thermal units. Facing public outcry, regulators accelerated license approvals, which pushes new onshore wind into the Iranian wind energy market quicker than earlier plans predicted.

Record 85% Capacity-Factor Mil Nader Project Proves Bankability

The 50 MW Mil Nader farm posted an 85.49% first-month capacity factor in June 2024, matching offshore benchmarks.^{(2)MAPNA Group, “Mil Nader Record,” mapnagroup.com} Domestic 2.5 MW turbines delivered the performance, easing technology-risk concerns among local banks that lend at rates above 24%. MAPNA intends to scale the site toward 600-700 MW, showing how proven resources can unlock utility-scale investment. Successful operation has raised confidence across the Iranian wind energy market and is influencing SATBA site choices for future rounds.

Tradable 20-Year PPAs on IRENEX Unlock Local Financing

IRENEX moved 232 million kWh of renewable electricity during March-July 2024 at an average 7.7 ¢/kWh, giving developers a secondary revenue stream.^{(3)IRENEX, “Renewable PPA Trading,” iremax.ir} The exchange mitigates single-buyer risk and allows sales to industrial users and crypto miners ready to pay premiums for a stable supply. Twenty-year contracts match turbine life and satisfy bank tenors. Although lender step-in rights remain weak, the mechanism strengthens cash flow forecasts and broadens the funding base for large projects in the Iranian wind energy market.

High Domestic Borrowing Costs Dampen Project IRR

Bank lending rates above 24% erode project returns, making many proposals unbankable unless sponsors tap concessional National Development Fund loans.^{(4)International Energy Agency, “Renewables 2024: Analysis and forecast to 2030,” iea.org} Inflation and Rial volatility force costs to be denominated in local currency even when inputs are priced in USD. Weak step-in rights deter genuine project-finance structures, so developers rely on balance-sheet funding. This environment limits participation by smaller firms and restricts diversification within the Iranian wind energy industry.

US/EU Sanctions Restricting Foreign Capital & Turbines

Executive Order 13846 and EU Regulation 267/2012 block Western turbine exports and choke international insurance and payment channels. Vestas, Siemens Gamesa, GE Vernova, and Nordex exited after 2018, removing high-capacity machines from the pipeline. Chinese OEMs have stayed cautious because of secondary sanctions, leaving MAPNA’s 2.5 MW platform as the primary option. The cap on available turbine ratings raises balance-of-system costs and slows technology upgrades across the Iranian wind energy market.

*Our forecasts treat driver/restraint impacts as directional, not additive. The impact forecasts reflect baseline growth, mix effects, and variable interactions.

Segment Analysis

By Location: Onshore Monopoly Masks Offshore Potential

Onshore wind contributes 100% of installed capacity and is forecast to rise from 430 MW in 2025 to 1,880 MW by 2031, matching the overall Iran wind energy market CAGR. The Iran wind energy market size for onshore projects benefits from proven corridors in Sistan-Baluchestan, Qazvin, Khorasan, and East Azerbaijan. Developers favor land within 50 km of substations to avoid costly transmission upgrades. Offshore resources in the Caspian Sea and Persian Gulf show technical promise but remain untouched because Iran lacks offshore-rated turbines, installation vessels, and specialized cabling. Current capital costs run two to three times higher than onshore, a hurdle under domestic borrowing rates exceeding 24%. Grid planners therefore prioritize onshore expansions that can use local manufacturing and that align with SATBA’s streamlined licensing. Without sanctions relief or a targeted subsidy, offshore wind is unlikely to enter the Iranian wind energy market before 2030.

Although policy still favors onshore build-out, provincial governments along the Caspian coast continue technical assessments of monopile and gravity-base foundations in water depths under 50 m. Deeper zones would need floating platforms, but no domestic yard can fabricate them yet. If offshore prototypes emerge after 2027, they may unlock larger rotor diameters that lower levelized costs, but such gains depend on relaxed export controls for advanced composites. Until then, onshore remains the sole growth engine for the Iranian wind energy market.

By Turbine Capacity: Shift to 3-6 MW Segment Reflects Efficiency Push

Units up to 3 MW held a 61.40% Iran wind energy market share in 2025, but their growth will trail larger machines. The 3-to-6 MW class is forecast to expand at 33.10% CAGR, fueled by higher hub heights, fewer foundations, and lower maintenance costs. The Iranian wind energy market size for this class will climb once MAPNA commercializes its planned 4.5 MW platform. Imports of Siemens Gamesa 3.2 MW machines before 2018 continue to show favorable performance at Siahpoush and are slated for the 99.2 MW Tizbaad project. Lack of fresh imports limits supply, but domestic reverse-engineering may fill part of the gap.

Supply constraints place a ceiling on the above-6 MW segment, which remains at zero capacity. Blades longer than 65 m need carbon fiber and precision pitch systems restricted by export bans. Absent Chinese entry or sanction relief, developers will keep optimizing 3-to-6 MW layouts. Even within those limits, turbines above 3 MW can cut balance-of-plant costs by reducing the number of pads and cables per megawatt, making them the fastest-growing slice of the Iranian wind energy market.

By Application: Utility-Scale Dominance Reflects Grid-Priority Policy

Utility-scale farms contributed 84.10% of installed capacity in 2025 and will grow at 29.45% CAGR through 2031, mirroring SATBA’s concentration on projects of 50-100 MW or larger. This focus lets planners address the 20,000 MW deficit quickly and justify new 400 kV lines. Developers also gain the option to sell excess output on IRENEX, which strengthens revenue stability. The Iranian wind energy market size for utility projects, therefore, dominates the landscape and is expected to keep its lead.

Commercial-and-industrial schemes are hampered by the absence of net-metering and by elevated borrowing costs. Only large firms such as Mobarakeh Steel have financed renewable plants for captive loads. Community wind remains negligible because there is no cooperative finance model and limited policy support. Hybrid microgrids of 1-5 MW may emerge in border provinces, but they will add a small fraction to the Iranian wind energy market by 2030.

Geography Analysis

Sistan-Baluchestan leads new capacity thanks to the 120-day winds that gave Mil Nader its 85.49% capacity factor. East Azerbaijan, Gilan, and Ardabil host most legacy farms and enjoy proximity to Tehran and Tabriz load centers, which lowers transmission losses. Qazvin contains the 61.2 MW Siahpoush farm and is earmarked for further MAPNA projects that will lift regional totals. Khorasan offers strong resources, but bottlenecks at remote substations slow build-out.

Caspian provinces have begun offshore assessments yet face modest wind speeds at 4.5-5.8 m/s near shore. Southern coasts in Bushehr and Hormozgan exhibit stronger winds but need floating foundations because depths exceed 400 m after the first 50 km. Without specialized vessels or financial incentives, offshore remains a post-2030 possibility. Central provinces such as Isfahan and Yazd show moderate wind and are better suited for solar-wind hybrids that serve factories or isolated communities.

Through 2030, capital will cluster in Sistan-Baluchestan, Qazvin, Khorasan, and East Azerbaijan, where capacity factors exceed 40% and existing grids can absorb new megawatts. Provinces outside these corridors may require premium feed-in tariffs or transmission grants to attract developers, especially as the Iranian wind energy market races toward the 5 GW national target.

Regulatory Landscape

Renewable power development in Iran is primarily governed by SATBA under the Ministry of Energy, which acts as the counterparty for standardized renewable procurement and project development processes. Wind developers typically progress through SATBA permitting and must secure an environmental impact assessment clearance from the Department of Environment, alongside grid-connection approvals coordinated through Tavanir for interconnection and dispatch requirements.

The commercial framework continues to center on long-tenor contracting, combining a guaranteed purchase structure and 20-year PPAs, including tradable PPAs enabled through the Iran Energy Exchange (IRENEX) as cited in the market context. In April 2026, notified renewable-development rules aimed at removing administrative obstacles (including land acquisition and financing facilitation) reinforced the state-led push to convert more licensed projects into buildable pipelines, while also tightening process discipline around readiness and compliance milestones needed for settlement and commercial operation.

Market Opportunities and Future Outlook

Wind deployment in Iran shows clear whitespace around converting signed developer interest into commissioned projects, especially in provinces where high-quality resources overlap with grid access, such as Sistan-Baluchestan and Qazvin. Evidence through mid-2026 indicates renewables exceeding 3,700 MW in total installed capacity, with wind representing about 29% of that portfolio, leaving wind with a sizable share within national clean-power additions even as solar leads the mix. SATBA also disclosed 2,878 MW of renewable projects across 26 provinces, pointing to an active project pipeline in which wind competes for grid capacity, equipment, and financing.

Near-term opportunity clusters include (i) utility-scale, high-capacity-factor corridors such as the Mil Nader area, where MAPNA has progressed from the initial Mil Nader project into the 100 MW Mil Nader 2 build, and (ii) bankability improvements tied to tradable PPAs and exchange-based offtake that broaden buyer access beyond a single state purchaser. A second gap is domestic industrial demand, where large consumers and public entities can contract for renewable electricity through market mechanisms, supported by policy direction cited in recent reporting that mandates increased renewable sourcing for large users. Where grid injection and metering prerequisites are met, this can translate into additional PPA-backed wind volumes.