Iran Wind Energy Market Size & Share Analysis - Growth Trends And Forecast (2025 - 2030)

Iran Wind Energy Market Trends and Insights

Government 10-GW 2025 Target & SATBA Incentives

SATBA has mandated an additional 10 GW of renewables by August 2025 and streamlined permitting to reduce lead times to below 12 months^{(1)United Nations, “Renewable Energy Forum in Iran,” un.org} . The agency backs 20-year power-purchase agreements traded on IRENEX, offering inflation-adjusted tariffs and upfront land allocation in high-wind corridors. Its Vision 2031 blueprint envisions 450,000 new jobs, positioning the Iranian wind energy market as both an energy security anchor and a diversification lever. Private contractors have been cleared to build 11 GW, marking a shift from state-led builds and accelerating onshore wind near Zabol and Manjil. The target is directly tied to increasing national power capacity from 93 GW to 123 GW within five years, with wind accounting for at least 40% of the new renewables.

Growing Power-Supply Deficit & Load-Shedding Pressure

Peak-season shortfalls hit 14 GW in 2024, leading to mazut firing and rolling blackouts that curbed industrial output and residential comfort. The government warns of a 30% gap by summer 2025 if no corrective action is taken, creating urgency around the Iranian wind energy market. Wind profiles in Sistan-Baluchestan align with evening demand spikes, providing a cost-effective mitigation solution. SATBA now exempts self-generating factories from load-reduction mandates, triggering orders for small clusters of 2 MW turbines. Remote cities have adopted hybrid wind-solar-battery systems to maintain power to clinics and telecom towers during curtailment events.

Record 85% Capacity-Factor Mil Nader Project Proves Bankability

MAPNA’s 50 MW Mil Nader wind farm generated 31 GWh in June 2024 alone, translating to an 85.5% capacity factor and avoiding 20,000 t of CO₂^{(2)MAPNA Group, “Mil Nader Record,” mapnagroup.com} . The achievement convinced local banks to underwrite 70% of the debt at sub-benchmark rates, citing the proven yield. Developers now benchmark P50-P90 models on live data rather than global averages, shortening due diligence cycles. International engineers use Mil Nader as a case study for high-turbulence control algorithms suited to the Iranian wind energy market sites.

Tradable 20-Year PPAs on IRENEX Unlock Local Financing

Since 2022, IRENEX has listed standardized, inflation-indexed PPAs that developers can trade to increase liquidity^{(3)IRENEX, “Renewable PPA Trading,” iremax.ir} . The instruments carry SATBA payment guarantees, boosting confidence among pension funds and insurance firms. Some 800 MW of wind PPAs changed hands in 2024, underpinning construction finance for projects in Manjil-Rudbar and Chabahar. Analysts note that PPA secondary trading smooths cash-flow mismatches, a critical feature while hard-currency loans remain constrained by sanctions.

Feed-in Tariff Erosion to 3 ¢/kWh Post-Rial Devaluation

The rial’s slide has cut real-term wind tariffs from 12¢ to 3¢ per kWh, well below the 7¢–8¢ threshold for equity returns^{(4)International Energy Agency, “Iran Feed-in Tariff,” iea.org}. Smaller developers defer final investment decisions, and SATBA’s annual indexation fails to keep pace with currency losses. Policy studies suggest redirecting a portion of fossil-fuel subsidies to restore tariffs, enabling wind to cover 5% of national electricity demand while staying fiscally neutral. Until reforms land, the Iranian wind energy market sees capital flowing chiefly to sponsors able to hedge exchange-rate risk.

US/EU Sanctions Restricting Foreign Capital & Turbines

Sanctions impede letters of credit, limit OEM service contracts, and hinder access to 6 MW-plus turbine models. European suppliers are resorting to local-assembly joint ventures with MAPNA, while Chinese groups, such as Goldwind, are stepping in to supply 3-4 MW platforms. Sanctions could raise Iran’s CO₂ emissions by 12%-30% by 2028 if import barriers persist, running counter to global decarbonization efforts. On the upside, domestic R&D efforts around permanent-magnet generators are accelerating as firms localize components to circumvent export controls.

Segment Analysis

By Installation: Onshore Dominance Reflects Infrastructure Realities

Onshore wind held a 100% market share of the full Iranian wind energy market in 2024 and is projected to compound at a 72% rate through 2030. The Iran wind energy market size for onshore assets is forecast to increase from 400 MW in 2025 to 5,600 MW by 2030, solidifying its dominance as grid links, crane fleets, and road access favor land-based builds. Developers cluster in Manjil-Rudbar, Zabol, and Chabahar, where one-stop permitting and standard 63-kV interconnection packages reduce soft costs. Offshore prospects off the Persian Gulf remain shelved due to 50-m water depths, sanctions on subsea cables, and competing gas-platform traffic. Investors instead tweak hub heights and rotor diameters onshore to capture laminar evening winds that coincide with residential cooling peaks. Hybridization with utility-scale battery systems moderates volatility and qualifies projects for SATBA’s ancillary-services bonus, supporting revenue stacking within the Iranian wind energy market.

Recent contracts demonstrate that domestic EPCs are achieving 22% cost reductions through the use of local steel towers and modular blade transporters, further reinforcing the cost advantage of onshore plants. Meanwhile, universities partner with OEMs to test desert-proof coatings that reduce blade erosion by 30%, thereby extending the runtime between overhauls. These incremental innovations anchor onshore’s unrivaled share of the Iranian wind energy market through the decade.

Note: Segment shares of all individual segments available upon report purchase

By Turbine Capacity: Larger Units Drive Efficiency Gains

The 1-2.5 MW class controlled 59% of 2024 installations; however, the 2.5-5 MW band is expected to expand at a 75% CAGR over 2025-2030, increasing its contribution to nearly half of the Iranian wind energy market size by 2030. Bigger rotors yield 15% more annual energy on identical pad footprints, a critical factor where grid intertie quotas constrain project MW caps. MAPNA’s adoption of 3.4 MW direct-drive units at Mil Nader shaved USD 170,000/MW off balance-of-plant cost, validating the move up-scale. Developers also appreciate the segment’s compatibility with 63-kV feeders, which avoids the need for expensive 132-kV upgrades. Sub-1 MW turbines remain popular for microgrids in border villages, but their share slips to 4% by 2030 as pooled purchasing drives down the prices of larger machines. Models exceeding 5 MW face transport limitations on mountain passes and are confined to pilot trials in coastal plains. Overall, upsizing is the linchpin for lowering levelized cost and fortifying competitiveness within the Iranian wind energy market.

Note: Segment shares of all individual segments available upon report purchase

Geography Analysis

Sistan-Baluchestan led the Iran wind energy market with 45% of installed capacity in 2024, leveraging the robust “120-day winds” that blow at 8-10 m/s and deliver evening peak output. The province’s share of the Iranian wind energy market is expected to reach 3,000 MW by 2030, as 400 km of new 230-kV lines come online. Northwestern Gilan ranks second, housing legacy farms around Manjil-Rudbar and benefiting from winter wind surges that complement the southeast’s summer profile. Grid reliability and proximity to industrial demand centers push developers to queue 800 MW in Gilan by 2028, aided by SATBA’s fast-track land leasing.

Central plateau provinces, such as Yazd and Kerman, are emerging frontiers, where integrated wind-solar hybrids help mining companies decarbonize their operations and hedge against diesel-price volatility. Feasibility studies indicate an average capacity factor of 33%, enabling utility off-take under five-year contracts that align with mine-life horizons. Chabahar, located in the far southeast, holds an export allure: coastal farms could potentially feed a planned subsea link to Oman once diplomatic talks advance, positioning the Iranian wind energy market as a regional green-power supplier.

Remote border regions attract developmental micro-grids financed by multilateral agencies. Projects in West Azerbaijan now pair 250-kW turbines with 1 MWh of lithium-iron-phosphate storage, slashing diesel use and pulmonary health costs. SATBA targets 250 hybrid micro-grids by 2030, spreading the benefits of the Iranian wind energy market beyond the main transmission backbone.