Asia-Pacific Commercial Aircraft Market Size & Share Analysis - Growth Trends and Forecast (2026 - 2031)

Asia-Pacific Commercial Aircraft Market Trends and Insights

Rapid LCC-Led Fleet Expansion

Low-cost carriers ordered 800 single-aisle aircraft between 2024 and 2025, accounting for 68% of the regional backlog, as their unit-cost advantage enables them to profit at load factors as low as 72%. IndiGo’s 500-jet order, VietJet’s 200-unit deal, and Cebu Pacific’s 100-aircraft commitment underscore a pivot toward point-to-point networks that bypass congested hubs. Fuel-efficient A320neo-family aircraft deliver a 15% burn improvement, enabling 8-12% lower average fares on sub-three-hour routes.^{[1]Airbus S.A.S., “A320neo Family Fuel Performance,” airbus.com} Airport slots remain available in many Tier 2 Asian cities, allowing carriers to expand without incurring high congestion fees. The strategy lifts secondary-airport traffic and attracts private investment into regional terminals. Consequently, the Asia-Pacific commercial aircraft market is seeing pronounced demand for narrow-bodies that match LCC economics.

Replacement Need for Fuel-Efficient Narrow-Bodies

More than 1,800 CFM56- and V2500-powered narrow-bodies in China, Japan, and South Korea averaged 14.3 years of age in 2025, pushing maintenance reserves above residual values. China Southern retired 38 737-800 aircraft in 2025 and cut unit fuel burn by 13% after switching to locally built C919 jets. Japan Airlines ordered 21 A321neo aircraft in 2026, citing a 19% lower trip cost versus 767-300ERs on 1,000-kilometer legs. Mid-life 737-800 and A320ceo jets are entering conversion lines, extending service life by up to 15 years and supporting freighter growth. Replacement cycles, therefore, funnel narrow-body orders toward next-generation platforms and sustain aftermarket demand for conversions.

Accelerated Airport-Infrastructure Build-Out

India opened 22 new airports in 2025, raising the national total to 148 and reducing the required daily traffic for route viability to 85 passengers. Indonesia commissioned eight new runways across Kalimantan and Sulawesi, enabling 70- to 90-seat turboprops on 1,200-meter strips. Thailand’s USD 3.8 billion expansion of U-Tapao Airport will alleviate congestion in Bangkok and add 15 million passengers per year by 2028. Such projects slash ground-handling barriers, invite new entrants, and broaden the Asia-Pacific commercial aircraft market’s route map. As infrastructure spreads, airlines diversify fleet mixes to match runway constraints and demand densities.

Scale-Up of China’s Domestic OEM Capacity

COMAC lifted C919 output to 207 units in 2025, a 63% rise year on year, and now sources 68% of components domestically. Water-over-operation certification secured in late 2025 enables the C919 to reach Indonesia and the Philippines, offering Southeast Asian carriers a 22-28% cheaper alternative to Western single-aisle aircraft. ARJ21 exports to TransNusa Airlines show that price concessions can offset brand inertia in emerging markets. As Chinese OEMs scale, Airbus and Boeing lose share in their largest regional market, reshaping procurement bargaining power across Asia-Pacific commercial aircraft market participants.

Persistent Global Supply-Chain Bottlenecks

Pratt & Whitney’s geared-turbofan recall grounded 637 regional aircraft across 2024-2025 for inspections averaging 95 days, delaying 180 Asia-Pacific deliveries slated for 2026.^{[2]Jon Ostrower, “GTF Recall Timelines Stretch into 2027,” wsj.com} Boeing capped 737 MAX output at 38 units per month due to fuselage quality issues, prompting carriers to extend leases at rates 18-22% above pre-recall levels. Airbus trimmed A320neo output by 6% amid titanium shortages after sanctions hit Russian supply lines. These bottlenecks compress airlines’ fleet-planning horizons and restrain near-term growth in the Asia-Pacific commercial aircraft market.

Certification Delays for New Aircraft Programs

EASA and FAA validations for the C919 have slipped beyond the expected 24-month window due to software-redundancy debates, limiting export potential to China-only certificates. Mitsubishi’s cancellation of the SpaceJet erased Japan’s only home-grown commercial airplane and left a gap in the 70-100 seat segment. Indonesia’s N219 remains uncertified outside its domestic market, curbing export revenue targets. Lengthy approvals reinforce the Western duopoly on global routes and temper competitive pressure in the Asia-Pacific commercial aircraft market.

Segment Analysis

By Aircraft Type: Narrow-Body Dominance Masks Regional-Jet Momentum

Narrow-body models controlled 72.78% of the Asia-Pacific commercial aircraft market share in 2025, reflecting their economics on 800- to 3,500-kilometer sectors. The Asia-Pacific commercial aircraft market size for regional jets is projected to expand at a 7.37% CAGR, outpacing the overall market because 100- to 150-seat models profitably serve routes with 90-110 daily passengers when airport fees fall at upgraded secondary airports.^{[3]Embraer, “Market Outlook 2025,” embraer.com} IndiGo’s order forby 9% in 2025 as airlines prioritized faster asset turnover on single-aisle aircraft, 50 ATR 72-600s to launch 28 UDAN routes, underscores the attractiveness of rightsized aircraft on thin city pairs.

Regional jets are gaining traction as carriers introduce twice-daily frequencies on 800- to 1,200-kilometer sectors, which were previously flown only four times a week by 50-seat turboprops. Embraer delivered 34 E195-E2 aircraft to Asia-Pacific customers in 2025, including 12 to Colorful Guizhou Airlines, whose break-even load factor dropped to 68% thanks to a 17.3% fuel-burn edge over legacy E-Jets. Turboprop interest is also reviving in Southeast Asia, where ATR has secured 78 orders for operations into runways with a 1,400-meter length at minimal ground-support costs. Wide-body deliveries declined 9% in 2025 as airlines prioritized faster asset turnover on single-aisles, signaling that long-haul growth will lag behind regional-route expansion through 2031.

By Application: Freighter Upswing Alters Revenue Mix

Passenger configurations held a 94.89% share in 2025; however, the Asia-Pacific commercial aircraft market size for freighters is rising at an 8.81% CAGR, driven by e-commerce, which now treats air cargo as a core distribution layer. Alibaba’s Cainiao arm expanded its dedicated fleet from eight to 14 units in 2025 and aims to reach 25 by 2027, utilizing 737-800 and A321 converted freighters that carry payloads of 23-27 tons at 35% lower costs than wide-body freighters on intra-Asia lanes.

Retailers are bypassing forwarders and contracting with airlines directly for guaranteed capacity, which commands premiums of 18-25%. Lessors exploit the arbitrage in passenger-to-freighter conversions, investing USD 4-6 million to earn unlevered returns topping 14% over a 12-year life. Combination passenger-freighter use remains niche because cabin-cargo rules restrict flexibility so that dedicated freighters will capture most incremental cargo demand in the Asia-Pacific commercial aircraft market.

By Propulsion Type: Turboprops Stage a Cost-Driven Revival

Turbofan engines still dominate with 90.38% share, but turboprops are forecast to record a 9.71% CAGR through 2031 as airlines revisit sub-600-kilometer route economics. Philippine Airlines ordered 18 ATR 72-600 aircraft, citing 12% lower maintenance costs and 40% longer overhaul intervals than the Dash 8 they are replacing. PW127XT engines deliver an incremental 3% fuel-burn improvement, extending maximum range to 1,665 kilometers and opening longer island-hopping sectors.

One hundred forty-two Southeast Asian airports have runways shorter than 1,500 meters and lack precision approaches, conditions ideal for turboprops’ short-field capability. Turbofan speed remains decisive beyond 1,000 kilometers; however, slot costs drive airlines to diversify their propulsion choices. Experimental hybrid-electric concepts are in flight-test phases, but commercial entry before 2029 depends on breakthroughs in battery density.

By Component: Avionics and Flight-Control Systems Gain Share

Airframe structures accounted for 34.21% of the component value in 2025, but avionics and flight-control systems are growing at a rate of 6.67% per year due to software-defined upgrades. Honeywell’s GoDirect orders jumped 34% in 2025 as carriers embraced predictive-maintenance savings. Thales retrofitted 240 narrow-body aircraft with 100 Mbps satellite links, generating USD 8 to 12 per passenger in ancillary revenue.

Engines accounted for 28% of value, led by LEAP variants compatible with 50% SAF blends, a feature that shields operators from rising carbon-offset costs. Cabin interiors captured 19% as airlines invested in premium-economy retrofits, a strategy that lifted Singapore Airlines’ premium bookings by 18% after a USD 230 million upgrade. Other systems, such as landing gear and APUs, comprise 18.79% and are expected to expand vastly in line with fleet growth.

Geography Analysis

China commanded 37.74% of the Asia-Pacific commercial aircraft market value in 2025, supported by 660 million passengers. In contrast, India is poised for a 10.04% CAGR from 2025 to 2031, driven by UDAN-enabled connectivity, which lifted domestic traffic 16% in 2025 to 185 million.^{[4]Directorate General of Civil Aviation India, “Traffic Report 2025,” dgca.gov.in} Air India’s 470-aircraft order will raise the national narrow-body fleet 38% by 2027 and introduce 91 new routes. IndiGo’s 61% domestic share across 142 monopoly city pairs underlines pricing power in India’s fast-growing market.

Japan, South Korea, and Australia formed a 28% share in 2025, driven by fleet replacements rather than expansion. Japan Airlines and ANA are introducing A321XLRs and 787-8s to reduce trip costs by up to 22% on dense short-haul routes. Australia’s market saw new competition when Bonza Airlines launched 737 MAX operations on 17 regional routes, forcing incumbents to lower fares by 12-18% and growing traffic by 9% on the affected sectors.

Southeast Asia, comprising Thailand, Indonesia, Vietnam, the Philippines, and Malaysia, accounted for 19% of the regional value in 2025 and is projected to grow at 6.8%, as privatized airports attract USD 12 billion for new terminals that will add capacity for 47 million additional passengers by 2028. Indonesia’s archipelagic geography favors 70-90-seat turboprops connecting Kalimantan and Sulawesi, an opportunity underscored by the completion of eight airports in 2025.

South Korea is pivoting toward long-haul premium traffic, with Korean Air and Asiana operating 68 wide-body aircraft and capturing yields, as premium cabins generate 55% of revenue. Smaller Pacific and Himalayan markets, together, represented 4% in 2025; liberalization moves, such as Papua New Guinea’s 2024 policy, are drawing carrier interest in niche mining charters.