Brazil Rice Market Analysis by Mordor Intelligence
The Brazil Rice Market size is estimated at USD 5.07 billion in 2025 and is anticipated to reach USD 6.09 billion by 2030, at a CAGR of 3.80% during the forecast period. Rice cultivation in Brazil is concentrated in the southern states, with Rio Grande do Sul producing 70% of the total output. This high production results from advanced farming methods, suitable climate conditions, and extensive irrigation systems that maintain consistent yields. Brazil is the largest consumer of milled rice in South America and the Caribbean, reflecting the grain's significance in the country's diet and food culture. The Brazil rice market is expanding into premium export markets by utilizing Non-GMO certification and improved tariff-free access to Mexico and Central America. The adoption of precision agriculture, genomic breeding, and blockchain traceability systems enables producers and processors to increase their market value.
Key Report Takeaways
- Brazil is one of the largest rice producers in South America, accounting for 42% of the region's total rice production.
Brazil Rice Market Trends and Insights
Driver Impact Analysis
| Driver | (~) % Impact on CAGR Forecast | Geographic Relevance | Impact Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|
| Favorable climate and land availability | +1.2% | South, Midwest | Long term (≥ 4 years) |
| Government support and favorable policies | +0.9% | National, focus on small and medium producers | Medium term (2-4 years) |
| Growing global demand for Non-GMO long grain rice | +0.8% | Export-oriented hubs in South | Medium term (2-4 years) |
| Strong staple-food demand maintains domestic off-take | +0.5% | Nationwide, notable in Northeast and Southeast | Short term (≤ 2 years) |
Source: Mordor Intelligence
Favorable Climate and Land Availability
Brazil's diverse climate zones and abundant surface water resources maintain the competitiveness of its irrigated rice production. The 2024 update to the Agricultural Climate Risk Zoning (Zarc) indicates an 80% success rate for irrigated rice planting in Tocantins between October 1st and November 20th, based on climate conditions. Remote-sensing platforms accurately map irrigated fields across six biomes with over 80% precision, enabling farmers to optimize planting schedules and water management.[1]"Mapping Irrigated Rice in Brazil Using Sentinel-2 Spectral–Temporal Metrics and Random Forest Algorithm", mdpi.com This integration of climate data and technology enhances the resilience of Brazil's rice market against weather-related disruptions while expanding production capabilities.
Government Support and Favorable Policies
The Brazilian government is implementing measures to enhance domestic rice production. In 2024, Brazil introduced the "Rice for the People" program, which aims to increase rice production by 500,000 metric tons in the succeeding year through government-backed option contracts. These contracts provide farmers with guaranteed purchase prices, encouraging small and medium-sized producers to expand their cultivation areas. The program, supported by BRL 1 billion (USD 178 million), addresses losses from recent droughts and floods while enhancing food security. Brazilian scientists are also developing sustainable irrigation techniques to reduce methane emissions in rice farming. Research conducted by USP's School of Agriculture and Embrapa demonstrates that intermittent irrigation can reduce emissions by up to 80%, enhancing environmental sustainability while maintaining crop yields.
Growing Global Demand for Non-GMO Long-Grain Rice
The growing consumer demand for Non-GMO staples is influencing global export patterns. Brazil's strict Non-GMO policies, supported by major mills like Camil Alimentos and Josapar, have created premium market opportunities following GMO contamination issues that affected U.S. exports. A 2023 trade agreement between Brazil and Kenya strengthened rice trade (including Non-GMO long-grain rice) and agricultural collaboration, enabling Kenya to import directly from Brazilian producers and reduce its dependence on Asian suppliers. Additionally, U.S. agricultural import tariffs in 2025 are likely to increase Brazilian rice exports to Mexico. The Mexican government's 2025 Anti-Inflation Decree, which extends duty-free access for certain agricultural products, creates opportunities for Non-FTA partners such as Brazil.
Strong Staple Food Demand Maintains Domestic Off-Take
Rice maintains a presence in 95% of Brazilian households, ensuring consistent baseline consumption. Government initiatives to combat hunger, including the Food-on-the-Plate Plan, strengthen demand through public procurement. Brazil supplements its domestic supply through rice imports, with Mercosur countries serving as primary suppliers. Paraguay, Uruguay, and Argentina, benefiting from tax-free status and favorable market access, collectively supplied 70% of Brazil's rice imports in 2023, according to SECEX data.[2]USDA Grain and Feed Annual Report
Restraints Impact Analysis
| Restraint | (~) % Impact on CAGR Forecast | Geographic Relevance | Impact Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|
| Escalating fertilizer and fuel input costs | -0.4% | Nationwide, higher burden in new frontiers | Medium term (2-4 years) |
| Competition from other exporting countries | -0.3% | Mexico, Central America, West Africa | Medium term (2-4 years) |
Source: Mordor Intelligence
Escalating Fertilizer and Fuel Input Costs
Brazil's dependence on fertilizer imports, which account for 77% of the total supply, makes agricultural producers vulnerable to global price fluctuations. Logistics costs constitute over 21% of processors' revenue. The depreciation of the Brazilian Real increases landed costs, reducing profit margins despite recent decreases in spot prices. In response, producers are implementing precision fertilizer application methods and integrated pest management practices to reduce input requirements and enhance operational resilience, even as short-term profits decrease.
Competition from Other Exporting Countries
Brazil's rice market faces constraints from major global exporters like Thailand, Vietnam, India, and the United States, which control international trade through lower production costs and established export networks. Asian exporters maintain competitive prices through government subsidies, modern milling facilities, and efficient logistics infrastructure. Brazil's domestic market also experiences competition from regional suppliers, including Paraguay, Argentina, and Uruguay. The country's dependence on irrigated rice cultivation increases production costs compared to rainfed rice farming in Africa and Southeast Asia. These competitive pressures have led Brazilian producers to focus on premium rice varieties, sustainability certifications, and specialized market segments to distinguish their exports.
Geography Analysis
The State of Rio Grande do Sul serves as Brazil's primary rice-producing region. The state maintains an established rice industry that generates substantial agricultural waste from processing operations. In line with Brazil's increased focus on sustainability, farms in this region have adopted no-tillage practices in flooded paddies, which improve soil structure, enhance microbial activity, and reduce methane emissions. According to the USDA, irrigated rice accounts for 92% of the total rice in the country, and rainfed rice accounts for 8% of the total rice production.
The Midwest region provides strategic production diversification. In Lagoa da Confusão, Tocantins, optimized supply chains have enhanced grain classification, reduced spoilage, and decreased drying costs, improving farmer cash flow. Agricultural Climate Risk Zoning guides planting decisions, while financing options support irrigation infrastructure development, enabling commercial-scale production.
The Northeast and Southeast regions fulfill distinct market roles. Northeast farms maintain household-level rice production through targeted support programs, incorporating drought-forecast systems and water-efficient varieties. The Southeast, particularly São Paulo, houses significant milling facilities and packaging operations, utilizing multimodal transportation to distribute to urban markets. The Northern region's decreased rice production aligns with environmental conservation objectives and shifts toward more profitable crops without impacting national supply capabilities.
Competitive Landscape
Brazil Rice Industry Leaders
- *Disclaimer: Major Players sorted in no particular order
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Recent Industry Developments
- February 2025: Monthly rice exports climbed 34% year-on-year to 112.5 thousand metric tons, generating USD 35.9 million and reaching Senegal, Gambia, and the United States.
- October 2024: Brazil introduced the "Rice for the People" program to increase rice production and strengthen national stockpiles, with a target of expanding output by 500,000 metric tons. The government allocated BRL 1 billion (USD 178 million) to support the initiative, which provides option contracts to small and medium-sized farmers by guaranteeing predetermined purchase prices to stimulate rice cultivation.
- May 2024: Brazil suspended import tariffs on rice from May 2024 to December 31, 2024, in response to severe flooding in Rio Grande do Sul, which accounts for two-thirds of the country's rice production. The tariff exemption covers polished and non-parboiled rice, which previously carried duties ranging from 9% to 10.8%.
Brazil Rice Market Report Scope
Rice is the starchy seeds or grain of annual marsh grass, Oryza sativa, cultivated in warm climates and used for food. Rice is a convenient form of nutritious and healthy food that is made available to consumers through retail channels and farms. The Report includes Production Analysis (Volume), Consumption Analysis (Value and Volume), Export Analysis (Value and Volume), Import Analysis (Value and Volume), and Price Trend Analysis. The report offers the market size and forecast in both value (USD) and volume (metric tons).
| Geography | Brazil | Production Analysis (Volume) |
| Consumption Analysis (Value and Volume) | ||
| Import Analysis (Value and Volume) | ||
| Export Analysis (Value and Volume) | ||
| Price Trend Analysis |
Geography
| Brazil | Production Analysis (Volume) |
| Consumption Analysis (Value and Volume) | |
| Import Analysis (Value and Volume) | |
| Export Analysis (Value and Volume) | |
| Price Trend Analysis |
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Key Questions Answered in the Report
What is the current size of the Brazil rice market?
The Brazil rice market is valued at USD 5.07 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach USD 6.09 billion by 2030.
Which region drives most of Brazil’s rice production?
The South region, led by Rio Grande do Sul and Santa Catarina, contributes 75% of national output, although the Midwest is the fastest-growing hub.
How is technology improving rice competitiveness in Brazil?
Precision agriculture, genomic breeding, blockchain traceability, and remote-sensing field mapping cut input costs, raise yields, and help exporters secure premiums.
What government policies support smallholders in the rice sector?
Programs such as “Arroz da Gente” and Pronaf provide subsidized credit and option contracts, ensuring market stability and fostering inclusive growth among small and medium producers
