Avocado Market Size and Share

Avocado Market (2026 - 2031)

Avocado Market Analysis by Mordor Intelligence

The avocado market size reached USD 18.5 billion in 2026 and is forecast to climb to USD 27.6 billion by 2031, reflecting a robust 8.3% CAGR. This growth is fueled by a rising consumer shift towards plant-based diets, an increase in ready-to-eat offerings in both retail and foodservice sectors, and strategic cold-chain investments that ensure fruit quality over extended supply routes[1]Source: United States Department of Agriculture Economic Research Service, “Fruit and Tree Nuts Data,” ERS.USDA.gov. Quick-service restaurants are increasingly featuring avocados on their menus, bolstered by traceability programs that command sustainability premiums and high-density orchard practices that boost yields. Controlled-atmosphere shipping safeguards producer margins while tariff reductions pave the way for new markets, particularly in Asia. The competitive landscape is characterized by moderate rivalry as vertically integrated leaders adeptly blend multi-origin sourcing with exclusive ripening networks, curbing the bargaining power of fragmented growers. Suppliers stand to gain by certifying organic produce, harnessing blockchain for traceability, or focusing on counter-seasonal exports to address supply voids in northern-hemisphere markets.

Key Report Takeaways

  • By geography, North America led with a 35% of the avocado market size in 2025. The Asia-Pacific region is projected to expand at a 9.4% CAGR through 2031, the fastest among all regions.

Note: Market size and forecast figures in this report are generated using Mordor Intelligence’s proprietary estimation framework, updated with the latest available data and insights as of January 2026.

Geography Analysis

North America held 35% of the avocado market share in 2025, largely due to its geographical advantages. Orchards in Michoacán can deliver fruit to distribution centers in Texas within 48 hours, outpacing maritime shipments from South America by over a week. The United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement, with zero tariffs, reduces landed costs. Controlled-ripening warehouses situated near Chicago and New York City ensure retail chains receive consistently high-quality produce. Canada, though starting from a smaller base, is witnessing nearly double-digit growth, fueled by an increasing immigrant population that is incorporating avocados into their traditional dishes.

Asia-Pacific is the fastest-growing regional segment, projected to post a 9.4% CAGR through 2031. In 2024, imports into China rose significantly, driven by e-commerce platforms bundling avocados with cooking tutorials and other related content. Japan followed with notable imports, supported by the rollouts of convenience stores and innovations related to sushi. These factors establish Asia-Pacific as a key growth area for the avocado market.

South America serves as the main counter-seasonal supplier for Europe and Asia. In 2024, Peru exported significant volumes after the lifting of drip-irrigation subsidies, which increased yields during droughts[3]Source: Government of Peru Ministry of Agriculture, “Peru Avocado Export Data 2024,” Gob.pe. Chile managed to export substantial quantities despite facing water stress. They achieved this by shifting production to cooler coastal valleys that retained moisture, enabling exporters to command higher prices for larger fruit sizes. Meanwhile, Colombia's newer orchards, now at full productivity, contributed additional volumes, marking a shift from their traditional coffee revenue.

Spain and the Netherlands predominantly influence Europe's market share. In 2024, Spanish farms in Andalusia produced significant quantities, meeting local summer demand and reducing the need for imports. The port of Rotterdam handled large volumes, re-exporting a notable portion within just 36 hours, supported by advanced ripening centers. Moving forward, exporters with blockchain or satellite proof of forest-free orchards will have an edge under the European Union's deforestation mandate.

While the Middle East and Africa hold significant growth potential. In 2024, Kenya exported notable quantities to the European Union and the UAE, capitalizing on two annual harvests made possible by bimodal rainfall. South Africa, emphasizing premium certified fruits, achieved a price premium through organic and Fairtrade certifications. Meanwhile, Israel, leveraging its expertise in drip irrigation, maintains robust yields in its arid regions and caters to both domestic and select European markets.

Avocado Market CAGR (%), Growth Rate by Region
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Competitive Landscape

Moderate competitive intensity characterizes the market, with vertically integrated leaders seamlessly blending multi-country orchards, packing facilities, and ripening centers to align with customer delivery windows. In the third quarter of 2024, Mission Produce reported revenue of USD 324.0 million. Additionally, the company expanded its Oxnard warehouse by 120,000 square feet to enhance its controlled-atmosphere capacity, which is anticipated to meet the rising demand. Major firms, through direct contracts with ocean carriers, secure controlled-atmosphere shipping, ensuring predictable freight pricing and optimal fruit ripeness upon arrival. In contrast, smaller cooperatives in regions such as Kenya and Colombia face the potential for marginalization, as they lack the capital to implement blockchain traceability or meet the rising costs of wages.

Technology adoption stands out as the key differentiator in the industry. For instance, pilots by IBM Food Trust achieved a notable 7% premium in European supermarkets as shoppers engaged with QR codes for orchard data. Furthermore, precision-agriculture start-ups utilize satellite imagery in irrigation models, achieving a reduction in water use and forecasting harvest volumes with 90% accuracy. This capability allows integrated packers to secure retail promotions months in advance. A surge in mergers, joint ventures, and partnerships is anticipated as mid-tier exporters aim to share cold-chain infrastructure and negotiate collective freight contracts to navigate rate fluctuations.

Recent Industry Developments

  • April 2025: The Avocado Producers & Exporting Packers Association of Mexico (APEAM) reaffirmed its commitment to advancing global avocado trade by expanding market access, improving export protocols, and fostering partnerships to meet rising demand. The association emphasized efforts to optimize phytosanitary procedures and diversify markets, particularly in Asia and Europe, to sustain Mexico's leadership in the global avocado supply chain.
  • March 2025: Avocados Australia has received approximately USD 135,200 (A$200,000) through the ASEAN-Australia Centre's 2024/25 grants program. This funding will support a new two-year program of trade promotions and culinary engagement in key Southeast Asian markets. The initiative aims to boost Australian avocado export activities and strengthen regional trade ties.
  • January 2025: Westfalia Fruit, a global leader in the avocado industry, has acquired Syros, a Belgian manufacturer of avocado products serving the European food, service, and retail sectors.

Table of Contents for Avocado Industry Report

1. Introduction

  • 1.1 Study Assumptions and Market Definition
  • 1.2 Scope of the Study

2. Research Methodology

3. Executive Summary

4. Market Dynamics

  • 4.1 Market Overview
  • 4.2 Market Drivers
    • 4.2.1 Rising global consumer preference for healthy fats and plant-based diets
    • 4.2.2 Strong growth of guacamole and ready-to-eat avocado products in foodservice and retail
    • 4.2.3 Expanding trade liberalization and lower tariffs among major importers
    • 4.2.4 Continuous yield gains via high-density planting and drip irrigation
    • 4.2.5 Controlled-atmosphere maritime shipping extending shelf-life
    • 4.2.6 Blockchain-enabled origin traceability unlocking premium pricing
  • 4.3 Market Restraints
    • 4.3.1 Climate variability and intensified drought risk in key producing zones
    • 4.3.2 Volatile ocean-freight costs compressing exporter margins
    • 4.3.3 Heightened deforestation scrutiny that may trigger stricter import rules
    • 4.3.4 Farm-labor shortages and rising wages inflating production costs
  • 4.4 Opportunities
  • 4.5 Challenges
  • 4.6 Value Chain Analysis
  • 4.7 Technologies and Usage of AI in the Industry
  • 4.8 Input Market Analysis
    • 4.8.1 Seeds
    • 4.8.2 Fertilizers
    • 4.8.3 Crop Protection Chemicals
  • 4.9 Distribution Channel Analysis
  • 4.10 Market Sentiment Analysis
  • 4.11 PESTLE Analysis

5. Market Size and Growth Forecasts (Value and Volume)

  • 5.1 By Geography
    • 5.1.1 North America
    • 5.1.1.1 United States
    • 5.1.1.1.1 Production Analysis (Area Harvested, Yield, and Production Volume)
    • 5.1.1.1.2 Consumption Analysis (Consumption Value and Volume)
    • 5.1.1.1.3 Import Market Analysis (Import Value, Volume, and Key Supplying Markets)
    • 5.1.1.1.4 Export Market Analysis (Export Value, Volume, and Key Destination Markets)
    • 5.1.1.1.5 Wholesale Price Trend Analysis and Forecast
    • 5.1.1.1.6 Regulatory Framework
    • 5.1.1.1.7 List of Key Players
    • 5.1.1.1.8 Logistics and Infrastructure
    • 5.1.1.1.9 Seasonality Analysis
    • 5.1.1.2 Mexico
    • 5.1.1.2.1 Production Analysis (Area Harvested, Yield, and Production Volume)
    • 5.1.1.2.2 Consumption Analysis (Consumption Value and Volume)
    • 5.1.1.2.3 Import Market Analysis (Import Value, Volume, and Key Supplying Markets)
    • 5.1.1.2.4 Export Market Analysis (Export Value, Volume, and Key Destination Markets)
    • 5.1.1.2.5 Wholesale Price Trend Analysis and Forecast
    • 5.1.1.2.6 Regulatory Framework
    • 5.1.1.2.7 List of Key Players
    • 5.1.1.2.8 Logistics and Infrastructure
    • 5.1.1.2.9 Seasonality Analysis
    • 5.1.2 Europe
    • 5.1.2.1 Morocco
    • 5.1.2.1.1 Production Analysis (Area Harvested, Yield, and Production Volume)
    • 5.1.2.1.2 Consumption Analysis (Consumption Value and Volume)
    • 5.1.2.1.3 Import Market Analysis (Import Value, Volume, and Key Supplying Markets)
    • 5.1.2.1.4 Export Market Analysis (Export Value, Volume, and Key Destination Markets)
    • 5.1.2.1.5 Wholesale Price Trend Analysis and Forecast
    • 5.1.2.1.6 Regulatory Framework
    • 5.1.2.1.7 List of Key Players
    • 5.1.2.1.8 Logistics and Infrastructure
    • 5.1.2.1.9 Seasonality Analysis
    • 5.1.2.2 Spain
    • 5.1.2.2.1 Production Analysis (Area Harvested, Yield, and Production Volume)
    • 5.1.2.2.2 Consumption Analysis (Consumption Value and Volume)
    • 5.1.2.2.3 Import Market Analysis (Import Value, Volume, and Key Supplying Markets)
    • 5.1.2.2.4 Export Market Analysis (Export Value, Volume, and Key Destination Markets)
    • 5.1.2.2.5 Wholesale Price Trend Analysis and Forecast
    • 5.1.2.2.6 Regulatory Framework
    • 5.1.2.2.7 List of Key Players
    • 5.1.2.2.8 Logistics and Infrastructure
    • 5.1.2.2.9 Seasonality Analysis
    • 5.1.2.3 Netherlands
    • 5.1.2.3.1 Production Analysis (Area Harvested, Yield, and Production Volume)
    • 5.1.2.3.2 Consumption Analysis (Consumption Value and Volume)
    • 5.1.2.3.3 Import Market Analysis (Import Value, Volume, and Key Supplying Markets)
    • 5.1.2.3.4 Export Market Analysis (Export Value, Volume, and Key Destination Markets)
    • 5.1.2.3.5 Wholesale Price Trend Analysis and Forecast
    • 5.1.2.3.6 Regulatory Framework
    • 5.1.2.3.7 List of Key Players
    • 5.1.2.3.8 Logistics and Infrastructure
    • 5.1.2.3.9 Seasonality Analysis
    • 5.1.2.4 Russia
    • 5.1.2.4.1 Production Analysis (Area Harvested, Yield, and Production Volume)
    • 5.1.2.4.2 Consumption Analysis (Consumption Value and Volume)
    • 5.1.2.4.3 Import Market Analysis (Import Value, Volume, and Key Supplying Markets)
    • 5.1.2.4.4 Export Market Analysis (Export Value, Volume, and Key Destination Markets)
    • 5.1.2.4.5 Wholesale Price Trend Analysis and Forecast
    • 5.1.2.4.6 Regulatory Framework
    • 5.1.2.4.7 List of Key Players
    • 5.1.2.4.8 Logistics and Infrastructure
    • 5.1.2.4.9 Seasonality Analysis
    • 5.1.3 Asia-Pacific
    • 5.1.3.1 India
    • 5.1.3.1.1 Production Analysis (Area Harvested, Yield, and Production Volume)
    • 5.1.3.1.2 Consumption Analysis (Consumption Value and Volume)
    • 5.1.3.1.3 Import Market Analysis (Import Value, Volume, and Key Supplying Markets)
    • 5.1.3.1.4 Export Market Analysis (Export Value, Volume, and Key Destination Markets)
    • 5.1.3.1.5 Wholesale Price Trend Analysis and Forecast
    • 5.1.3.1.6 Regulatory Framework
    • 5.1.3.1.7 List of Key Players
    • 5.1.3.1.8 Logistics and Infrastructure
    • 5.1.3.1.9 Seasonality Analysis
    • 5.1.3.2 Philippines
    • 5.1.3.2.1 Production Analysis (Area Harvested, Yield, and Production Volume)
    • 5.1.3.2.2 Consumption Analysis (Consumption Value and Volume)
    • 5.1.3.2.3 Import Market Analysis (Import Value, Volume, and Key Supplying Markets)
    • 5.1.3.2.4 Export Market Analysis (Export Value, Volume, and Key Destination Markets)
    • 5.1.3.2.5 Wholesale Price Trend Analysis and Forecast
    • 5.1.3.2.6 Regulatory Framework
    • 5.1.3.2.7 List of Key Players
    • 5.1.3.2.8 Logistics and Infrastructure
    • 5.1.3.2.9 Seasonality Analysis
    • 5.1.3.3 China
    • 5.1.3.3.1 Production Analysis (Area Harvested, Yield, and Production Volume)
    • 5.1.3.3.2 Consumption Analysis (Consumption Value and Volume)
    • 5.1.3.3.3 Import Market Analysis (Import Value, Volume, and Key Supplying Markets)
    • 5.1.3.3.4 Export Market Analysis (Export Value, Volume, and Key Destination Markets)
    • 5.1.3.3.5 Wholesale Price Trend Analysis and Forecast
    • 5.1.3.3.6 Regulatory Framework
    • 5.1.3.3.7 List of Key Players
    • 5.1.3.3.8 Logistics and Infrastructure
    • 5.1.3.3.9 Seasonality Analysis
    • 5.1.3.4 Indonesia
    • 5.1.3.4.1 Production Analysis (Area Harvested, Yield, and Production Volume)
    • 5.1.3.4.2 Consumption Analysis (Consumption Value and Volume)
    • 5.1.3.4.3 Import Market Analysis (Import Value, Volume, and Key Supplying Markets)
    • 5.1.3.4.4 Export Market Analysis (Export Value, Volume, and Key Destination Markets)
    • 5.1.3.4.5 Wholesale Price Trend Analysis and Forecast
    • 5.1.3.4.6 Regulatory Framework
    • 5.1.3.4.7 List of Key Players
    • 5.1.3.4.8 Logistics and Infrastructure
    • 5.1.3.4.9 Seasonality Analysis
    • 5.1.4 South America
    • 5.1.4.1 Brazil
    • 5.1.4.1.1 Production Analysis (Area Harvested, Yield, and Production Volume)
    • 5.1.4.1.2 Consumption Analysis (Consumption Value and Volume)
    • 5.1.4.1.3 Import Market Analysis (Import Value, Volume, and Key Supplying Markets)
    • 5.1.4.1.4 Export Market Analysis (Export Value, Volume, and Key Destination Markets)
    • 5.1.4.1.5 Wholesale Price Trend Analysis and Forecast
    • 5.1.4.1.6 Regulatory Framework
    • 5.1.4.1.7 List of Key Players
    • 5.1.4.1.8 Logistics and Infrastructure
    • 5.1.4.1.9 Seasonality Analysis
    • 5.1.4.2 Colombia
    • 5.1.4.2.1 Production Analysis (Area Harvested, Yield, and Production Volume)
    • 5.1.4.2.2 Consumption Analysis (Consumption Value and Volume)
    • 5.1.4.2.3 Import Market Analysis (Import Value, Volume, and Key Supplying Markets)
    • 5.1.4.2.4 Export Market Analysis (Export Value, Volume, and Key Destination Markets)
    • 5.1.4.2.5 Wholesale Price Trend Analysis and Forecast
    • 5.1.4.2.6 Regulatory Framework
    • 5.1.4.2.7 List of Key Players
    • 5.1.4.2.8 Logistics and Infrastructure
    • 5.1.4.2.9 Seasonality Analysis
    • 5.1.4.3 Chile
    • 5.1.4.3.1 Production Analysis (Area Harvested, Yield, and Production Volume)
    • 5.1.4.3.2 Consumption Analysis (Consumption Value and Volume)
    • 5.1.4.3.3 Import Market Analysis (Import Value, Volume, and Key Supplying Markets)
    • 5.1.4.3.4 Export Market Analysis (Export Value, Volume, and Key Destination Markets)
    • 5.1.4.3.5 Wholesale Price Trend Analysis and Forecast
    • 5.1.4.3.6 Regulatory Framework
    • 5.1.4.3.7 List of Key Players
    • 5.1.4.3.8 Logistics and Infrastructure
    • 5.1.4.3.9 Seasonality Analysis
    • 5.1.4.4 Peru
    • 5.1.4.4.1 Production Analysis (Area Harvested, Yield, and Production Volume)
    • 5.1.4.4.2 Consumption Analysis (Consumption Value and Volume)
    • 5.1.4.4.3 Import Market Analysis (Import Value, Volume, and Key Supplying Markets)
    • 5.1.4.4.4 Export Market Analysis (Export Value, Volume, and Key Destination Markets)
    • 5.1.4.4.5 Wholesale Price Trend Analysis and Forecast
    • 5.1.4.4.6 Regulatory Framework
    • 5.1.4.4.7 List of Key Players
    • 5.1.4.4.8 Logistics and Infrastructure
    • 5.1.4.4.9 Seasonality Analysis
    • 5.1.5 Africa
    • 5.1.5.1 South Africa
    • 5.1.5.1.1 Production Analysis (Area Harvested, Yield, and Production Volume)
    • 5.1.5.1.2 Consumption Analysis (Consumption Value and Volume)
    • 5.1.5.1.3 Import Market Analysis (Import Value, Volume, and Key Supplying Markets)
    • 5.1.5.1.4 Export Market Analysis (Export Value, Volume, and Key Destination Markets)
    • 5.1.5.1.5 Wholesale Price Trend Analysis and Forecast
    • 5.1.5.1.6 Regulatory Framework
    • 5.1.5.1.7 List of Key Players
    • 5.1.5.1.8 Logistics and Infrastructure
    • 5.1.5.1.9 Seasonality Analysis
    • 5.1.5.2 Kenya
    • 5.1.5.2.1 Production Analysis (Area Harvested, Yield, and Production Volume)
    • 5.1.5.2.2 Consumption Analysis (Consumption Value and Volume)
    • 5.1.5.2.3 Import Market Analysis (Import Value, Volume, and Key Supplying Markets)
    • 5.1.5.2.4 Export Market Analysis (Export Value, Volume, and Key Destination Markets)
    • 5.1.5.2.5 Wholesale Price Trend Analysis and Forecast
    • 5.1.5.2.6 Regulatory Framework
    • 5.1.5.2.7 List of Key Players
    • 5.1.5.2.8 Logistics and Infrastructure
    • 5.1.5.2.9 Seasonality Analysis
    • 5.1.6 Middle East
    • 5.1.6.1 United Arab Emirates
    • 5.1.6.1.1 Production Analysis (Area Harvested, Yield, and Production Volume)
    • 5.1.6.1.2 Consumption Analysis (Consumption Value and Volume)
    • 5.1.6.1.3 Import Market Analysis (Import Value, Volume, and Key Supplying Markets)
    • 5.1.6.1.4 Export Market Analysis (Export Value, Volume, and Key Destination Markets)
    • 5.1.6.1.5 Wholesale Price Trend Analysis and Forecast
    • 5.1.6.1.6 Regulatory Framework
    • 5.1.6.1.7 List of Key Players
    • 5.1.6.1.8 Logistics and Infrastructure
    • 5.1.6.1.9 Seasonality Analysis
    • 5.1.6.2 Saudi Arabia
    • 5.1.6.2.1 Production Analysis (Area Harvested, Yield, and Production Volume)
    • 5.1.6.2.2 Consumption Analysis (Consumption Value and Volume)
    • 5.1.6.2.3 Import Market Analysis (Import Value, Volume, and Key Supplying Markets)
    • 5.1.6.2.4 Export Market Analysis (Export Value, Volume, and Key Destination Markets)
    • 5.1.6.2.5 Wholesale Price Trend Analysis and Forecast
    • 5.1.6.2.6 Regulatory Framework
    • 5.1.6.2.7 List of Key Players
    • 5.1.6.2.8 Logistics and Infrastructure
    • 5.1.6.2.9 Seasonality Analysis

6. End Use Applications and Industries

  • 6.1 Primary Applications and Emerging Applications
  • 6.2 Consumption Breakdown by Industries

7. Competitive Landscape

  • 7.1 Overview of the Competition
  • 7.2 Recent Developments
  • 7.3 Market Concentration Analysis

8. Market Opportunities and Future Trends

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Research Methodology Framework and Report Scope

Market Definitions and Key Coverage

Our study treats the avocado market as the total annual value of fresh and minimally processed avocados (pulp, guacamole, oil) traded at wholesale and retail levels across all producing and importing regions. According to Mordor Intelligence, estimates cover production, domestic consumption, cross-border trade, and prevailing average selling prices converted to constant 2024 US dollars.

Scope exclusion: wild-harvested fruit that never enters organized supply chains is not counted.

Segmentation Overview

  • By Geography
    • North America
      • United States
        • Production Analysis (Area Harvested, Yield, and Production Volume)
        • Consumption Analysis (Consumption Value and Volume)
        • Import Market Analysis (Import Value, Volume, and Key Supplying Markets)
        • Export Market Analysis (Export Value, Volume, and Key Destination Markets)
        • Wholesale Price Trend Analysis and Forecast
        • Regulatory Framework
        • List of Key Players
        • Logistics and Infrastructure
        • Seasonality Analysis
      • Mexico
        • Production Analysis (Area Harvested, Yield, and Production Volume)
        • Consumption Analysis (Consumption Value and Volume)
        • Import Market Analysis (Import Value, Volume, and Key Supplying Markets)
        • Export Market Analysis (Export Value, Volume, and Key Destination Markets)
        • Wholesale Price Trend Analysis and Forecast
        • Regulatory Framework
        • List of Key Players
        • Logistics and Infrastructure
        • Seasonality Analysis
    • Europe
      • Morocco
        • Production Analysis (Area Harvested, Yield, and Production Volume)
        • Consumption Analysis (Consumption Value and Volume)
        • Import Market Analysis (Import Value, Volume, and Key Supplying Markets)
        • Export Market Analysis (Export Value, Volume, and Key Destination Markets)
        • Wholesale Price Trend Analysis and Forecast
        • Regulatory Framework
        • List of Key Players
        • Logistics and Infrastructure
        • Seasonality Analysis
      • Spain
        • Production Analysis (Area Harvested, Yield, and Production Volume)
        • Consumption Analysis (Consumption Value and Volume)
        • Import Market Analysis (Import Value, Volume, and Key Supplying Markets)
        • Export Market Analysis (Export Value, Volume, and Key Destination Markets)
        • Wholesale Price Trend Analysis and Forecast
        • Regulatory Framework
        • List of Key Players
        • Logistics and Infrastructure
        • Seasonality Analysis
      • Netherlands
        • Production Analysis (Area Harvested, Yield, and Production Volume)
        • Consumption Analysis (Consumption Value and Volume)
        • Import Market Analysis (Import Value, Volume, and Key Supplying Markets)
        • Export Market Analysis (Export Value, Volume, and Key Destination Markets)
        • Wholesale Price Trend Analysis and Forecast
        • Regulatory Framework
        • List of Key Players
        • Logistics and Infrastructure
        • Seasonality Analysis
      • Russia
        • Production Analysis (Area Harvested, Yield, and Production Volume)
        • Consumption Analysis (Consumption Value and Volume)
        • Import Market Analysis (Import Value, Volume, and Key Supplying Markets)
        • Export Market Analysis (Export Value, Volume, and Key Destination Markets)
        • Wholesale Price Trend Analysis and Forecast
        • Regulatory Framework
        • List of Key Players
        • Logistics and Infrastructure
        • Seasonality Analysis
    • Asia-Pacific
      • India
        • Production Analysis (Area Harvested, Yield, and Production Volume)
        • Consumption Analysis (Consumption Value and Volume)
        • Import Market Analysis (Import Value, Volume, and Key Supplying Markets)
        • Export Market Analysis (Export Value, Volume, and Key Destination Markets)
        • Wholesale Price Trend Analysis and Forecast
        • Regulatory Framework
        • List of Key Players
        • Logistics and Infrastructure
        • Seasonality Analysis
      • Philippines
        • Production Analysis (Area Harvested, Yield, and Production Volume)
        • Consumption Analysis (Consumption Value and Volume)
        • Import Market Analysis (Import Value, Volume, and Key Supplying Markets)
        • Export Market Analysis (Export Value, Volume, and Key Destination Markets)
        • Wholesale Price Trend Analysis and Forecast
        • Regulatory Framework
        • List of Key Players
        • Logistics and Infrastructure
        • Seasonality Analysis
      • China
        • Production Analysis (Area Harvested, Yield, and Production Volume)
        • Consumption Analysis (Consumption Value and Volume)
        • Import Market Analysis (Import Value, Volume, and Key Supplying Markets)
        • Export Market Analysis (Export Value, Volume, and Key Destination Markets)
        • Wholesale Price Trend Analysis and Forecast
        • Regulatory Framework
        • List of Key Players
        • Logistics and Infrastructure
        • Seasonality Analysis
      • Indonesia
        • Production Analysis (Area Harvested, Yield, and Production Volume)
        • Consumption Analysis (Consumption Value and Volume)
        • Import Market Analysis (Import Value, Volume, and Key Supplying Markets)
        • Export Market Analysis (Export Value, Volume, and Key Destination Markets)
        • Wholesale Price Trend Analysis and Forecast
        • Regulatory Framework
        • List of Key Players
        • Logistics and Infrastructure
        • Seasonality Analysis
    • South America
      • Brazil
        • Production Analysis (Area Harvested, Yield, and Production Volume)
        • Consumption Analysis (Consumption Value and Volume)
        • Import Market Analysis (Import Value, Volume, and Key Supplying Markets)
        • Export Market Analysis (Export Value, Volume, and Key Destination Markets)
        • Wholesale Price Trend Analysis and Forecast
        • Regulatory Framework
        • List of Key Players
        • Logistics and Infrastructure
        • Seasonality Analysis
      • Colombia
        • Production Analysis (Area Harvested, Yield, and Production Volume)
        • Consumption Analysis (Consumption Value and Volume)
        • Import Market Analysis (Import Value, Volume, and Key Supplying Markets)
        • Export Market Analysis (Export Value, Volume, and Key Destination Markets)
        • Wholesale Price Trend Analysis and Forecast
        • Regulatory Framework
        • List of Key Players
        • Logistics and Infrastructure
        • Seasonality Analysis
      • Chile
        • Production Analysis (Area Harvested, Yield, and Production Volume)
        • Consumption Analysis (Consumption Value and Volume)
        • Import Market Analysis (Import Value, Volume, and Key Supplying Markets)
        • Export Market Analysis (Export Value, Volume, and Key Destination Markets)
        • Wholesale Price Trend Analysis and Forecast
        • Regulatory Framework
        • List of Key Players
        • Logistics and Infrastructure
        • Seasonality Analysis
      • Peru
        • Production Analysis (Area Harvested, Yield, and Production Volume)
        • Consumption Analysis (Consumption Value and Volume)
        • Import Market Analysis (Import Value, Volume, and Key Supplying Markets)
        • Export Market Analysis (Export Value, Volume, and Key Destination Markets)
        • Wholesale Price Trend Analysis and Forecast
        • Regulatory Framework
        • List of Key Players
        • Logistics and Infrastructure
        • Seasonality Analysis
    • Africa
      • South Africa
        • Production Analysis (Area Harvested, Yield, and Production Volume)
        • Consumption Analysis (Consumption Value and Volume)
        • Import Market Analysis (Import Value, Volume, and Key Supplying Markets)
        • Export Market Analysis (Export Value, Volume, and Key Destination Markets)
        • Wholesale Price Trend Analysis and Forecast
        • Regulatory Framework
        • List of Key Players
        • Logistics and Infrastructure
        • Seasonality Analysis
      • Kenya
        • Production Analysis (Area Harvested, Yield, and Production Volume)
        • Consumption Analysis (Consumption Value and Volume)
        • Import Market Analysis (Import Value, Volume, and Key Supplying Markets)
        • Export Market Analysis (Export Value, Volume, and Key Destination Markets)
        • Wholesale Price Trend Analysis and Forecast
        • Regulatory Framework
        • List of Key Players
        • Logistics and Infrastructure
        • Seasonality Analysis
    • Middle East
      • United Arab Emirates
        • Production Analysis (Area Harvested, Yield, and Production Volume)
        • Consumption Analysis (Consumption Value and Volume)
        • Import Market Analysis (Import Value, Volume, and Key Supplying Markets)
        • Export Market Analysis (Export Value, Volume, and Key Destination Markets)
        • Wholesale Price Trend Analysis and Forecast
        • Regulatory Framework
        • List of Key Players
        • Logistics and Infrastructure
        • Seasonality Analysis
      • Saudi Arabia
        • Production Analysis (Area Harvested, Yield, and Production Volume)
        • Consumption Analysis (Consumption Value and Volume)
        • Import Market Analysis (Import Value, Volume, and Key Supplying Markets)
        • Export Market Analysis (Export Value, Volume, and Key Destination Markets)
        • Wholesale Price Trend Analysis and Forecast
        • Regulatory Framework
        • List of Key Players
        • Logistics and Infrastructure
        • Seasonality Analysis

Detailed Research Methodology and Data Validation

Primary Research

Mordor analysts interviewed growers, packers, importers, and major retail produce buyers across North America, Latin America, Europe, and Asia. Conversations and short surveys clarified average pack-out rates, typical price premiums for organic lots, seasonality of contracted volumes, and expected orchard expansion, which in turn validated secondary data and filled in regional gaps.

Desk Research

We began with national agriculture statistics such as USDA ERS, Mexico's SIAP, and Eurostat, which provide planted acreage, yield, and shipment data. Trade flows were reconstructed from UN Comtrade and Volza shipment manifests, while farm-gate and wholesale price trends came from the Hass Avocado Board and FAO FAOSTAT. Company filings, press releases, and customs tariffs helped us sense-check margins and export incentives.

Paid repositories (D&B Hoovers for producer financials and Dow Jones Factiva for historical news) supplied context on investment cycles, weather shocks, and biosecurity events. These sources anchor baseline volumes before we move to model building; many additional public records were referenced for cross-checks, though not listed here exhaustively.

Market-Sizing & Forecasting

A top-down construct that starts with harvested tonnage and trade balances was applied. Then, supplier roll-ups of sampled export invoices and channel checks gave bottom-up reasonableness tests. Key variables feeding the model include bearing acreage, average yield per hectare, per-capita avocado intake, real disposable income, and five-year average farm-gate prices. Where official data lagged, we interpolated missing points using three-year moving averages before anchoring to the latest season's actuals. Forecasts use multivariate regression blended with scenario analysis; demand is linked to income growth and health-food adoption indices, whereas supply projections hinge on new orchard maturation curves and water-availability outlooks. Expert consensus kept extreme weather or phytosanitary disruption scenarios within realistic bounds.

Data Validation & Update Cycle

Outputs are run through variance filters that flag any ten percent deviation from historic price-volume elasticities, and anomalies are reviewed by a second analyst layer before release. Our reports refresh annually, with interim revisions triggered by material events such as El Niño impacts or phytosanitary bans, ensuring clients always receive an up-to-date baseline.

Why Mordor's Avocado Baseline Earns Decision-Maker Confidence

Published values often differ because firms choose dissimilar product mixes, pricing points, and currency bases, and because refresh cadences vary. We acknowledge these realities upfront so users understand why charts sometimes seem contradictory.

Key gap drivers include whether processed derivatives are bundled with fresh fruit, currency conversion timing, and how shadow imports are treated. Mordor reports the full farm-to-retail chain and updates the model each year, while others may rely on shorter historical runs or single-currency snapshots that magnify exchange-rate swings.

Benchmark comparison

Market SizeAnonymized sourcePrimary gap driver
USD 19.56 B Mordor Intelligence-
USD 17.36 B Global Consultancy AExcludes value-added products and uses factory-gate pricing only
USD 19.80 B Industry Publisher BIncludes select specialty oils and applies mixed 2023-24 exchange rates

In short, by tying every figure to transparent acreage, trade, and price levers, and by revisiting those levers each season, Mordor delivers a balanced, defensible view that practitioners can replicate and stress-test with minimal extra effort.

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Key Questions Answered in the Report

What is the current value of the avocado market and how fast is it growing?

The avocado market size reached USD 18.5 billion in 2026 and is projected to grow at an 8.3% compound annual rate to USD 27.6 billion by 2031.

Which region commands the largest demand for avocados?

North America leads with a 35% share, supported by strong United States consumption and close proximity to Mexican orchards.

Which region is expanding fastest in avocado consumption?

Asia-Pacific is the fastest, expected to rise at a 9.4% compound annual growth rate through 2031 as China and Japan accelerate imports.

How are controlled-atmosphere containers impacting avocado trade?

They extend shelf life by up to 21 days, enabling exporters to reach distant markets such as East Asia without compromising fruit quality.

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