United States Oil And Gas Market Size & Share Analysis - Growth Trends And Forecast (2025 - 2030)

United States Oil And Gas Market Trends and Insights

Tight-oil Productivity Gains in the Permian

Advanced completion designs and AI-guided drilling lifted Permian Basin output to 6.3 million barrels per day in 2024, representing 60% of total US growth despite a leaner rig fleet. Longer laterals, higher proppant loading, and real-time frac optimization push recovery per well higher while trimming costs. ExxonMobil’s integration of Pioneer aims for a further 15% uplift through standardized execution and shared infrastructure.^{(2)Halliburton Company, "Form 10-Q Quarterly Report," sec.gov} Independent drillers mirror these tactics to remain competitive. Efficiency, therefore, anchors continued output gains that fortify the US oil and gas market against price swings

Surging LNG Export Capacity

New Gulf Coast liquefaction trains reshape demand by linking domestic supply to global price premia. Venture Global’s Plaquemines terminal added 20 million tpa capacity in 2024, with Golden Pass to follow at 15.6 million tpa.^{(3)Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, “LNG Monthly Report,” FERC, ferc.gov} The export surge boosts Appalachian and Haynesville drilling, while USD 15 billion of new pipelines funnel volumes south. Closer alignment with world markets tempers seasonal Henry Hub volatility, strengthening forward visibility for producers and midstream players, and reinforcing expansion in the US oil and gas market.

AI-driven Seismic Analytics for Marginal Well Recovery

Halliburton’s DecisionSpace platform processes seismic data 10× faster than prior workflows and identifies sweet spots with 85% accuracy. Operators in mature basins leverage these insights to re-enter legacy acreage, reducing drilling days and increasing initial production rates by 15%, as demonstrated by ConocoPhillips on Alaska’s North Slope. As computing costs fall, adoption widens, reinforcing a technology race that underpins productivity leadership in the US oil and gas market.

IRA 45Q & 45V Tax Credits Lowering CCS Costs

Inflation Reduction Act credits of up to USD 85 per ton for captured CO₂ and as high as USD 3 per kilogram for clean hydrogen narrow the economic gap for large-scale CCS hubs.^{(4)Internal Revenue Service, “Notice 2024-36: Clean Hydrogen Production Credit,” IRS, irs.gov} ExxonMobil pledged USD 4 billion to develop a Gulf Coast hub able to store 50 million tons annually by 2030, ExxonMobil.com. The policy certainty boosts new revenue streams and drives cross-sector partnerships, reinforcing decarbonization trends within the US oil and gas market.

Methane-fee Compliance Costs Under EPA OOOOb/c

Beginning in 2024, methane emissions exceeding set thresholds incur fees starting at USD 900 per metric ton and rising to USD 1,500 by 2026.^{(5)Environmental Protection Agency, “Methane Emissions Charge for Oil and Gas Facilities,” EPA, epa.gov} Added monitoring and repair programs raise operating costs by USD 2-4 per barrel for typical shale wells, hitting smaller producers hardest. Compliance demands speed consolidation and quick adoption of technology, such as continuous leak detection, to alter cost structures within the US oil and gas market.

Water-stress Limits on Permian Fracturing

The Ogallala Aquifer has fallen by up to 15 feet in parts of West Texas, forcing stricter water allocations.^{(6)US Geological Survey, “High Plains Aquifer Water-Level and Storage Changes,” USGS, usgs.gov} Operators invest in recycling systems, yet drought periods still create scheduling bottlenecks. Pioneer recycled 99% of produced water in 2024, cutting freshwater use by 75% from 2020 but noting constraints during peak irrigation seasons. Higher costs and potential delays temper growth expectations in the US oil and gas market.

Segment Analysis

By Sector: Upstream Investments Drive Market Leadership

Upstream claimed 72.3% of the US oil and gas market size in 2024 and is on track for a 4.9% CAGR to 2030. Midstream captured 18%, buoyed by pipeline additions and LNG terminal build-outs, while downstream refining held 9.7% amid capacity limits and tighter emissions rules. Operators now target internal rates above 15% at USD 60 oil, steering capital toward high-return shale laterals and select long-cycle projects. ConocoPhillips’ Willow development illustrates the shift, with 30-year reserves offering cash-flow depth rare in short-cycle shale projects. Drilling efficiency and disciplined reinvestment keep the upstream segment at the center of continued gains in the US oil and gas market.

Upstream’s dominance rests on rapid productivity gains that hold costs near sub-USD 40 per barrel breakevens. Midstream remains an opportunity-rich sector as LNG growth drives storage and takeaway needs, yet capital discipline tempers speculative projects. Downstream margins are tightening amid competition from renewable diesel and the cost of regulatory upgrades. Together, these dynamics reinforce the upstream sector’s outsized influence on revenue trends within the US oil and gas market.

Note: Segment shares of all individual segments available upon report purchase

By Location: Offshore Revival Challenges Onshore Dominance

Onshore activity held 73.9% of the US oil and gas market share in 2024, but offshore deepwater projects are projected to post a sharper 5.3% CAGR through 2030. Shell’s Whale field began flowing in 2024, validated by lower development costs resulting from the use of standardized subsea systems. Operators bid USD 382 million across 73 Gulf tracts that same year, signaling a renewed appetite for deepwater. The offshore resurgence anchors growth against onshore headwinds such as drilling setbacks in Colorado that removed 85% of locations in some counties.

While shale remains critical, the depletion of tier-one inventory pushes producers to explore fringe acreage or deeper horizons, which carry higher costs. Offshore, by contrast, offers multi-decade reserves and clearer permitting timelines. This geographic diversification supports resilience in the US oil and gas market even as regulatory risk rises on land.

By Service: Decommissioning Emerges as Growth Driver

Construction services accounted for 82.1% of the US oil and gas market size in 2024, while decommissioning is the fastest-growing segment at a 7.0% CAGR. Roughly 2,700 offshore structures and thousands of aging onshore wells must be dismantled over the next decade. TechnipFMC secured USD 1.2 billion in related contracts in 2024, leveraging its heavy-lift vessels and subsea expertise. Maintenance services fill the remaining share, buoyed by mandatory turnarounds that ensure compliance with emissions rules.

Bonding requirements are tightening, compelling operators to demonstrate future abandonment funding before obtaining permits. This framework creates a visible backlog of work that underpins revenue stability for specialty contractors. Decommissioning, therefore, stands out as a structural growth lever inside the US oil and gas market.

Note: Segment shares of all individual segments available upon report purchase

Geography Analysis

Texas and New Mexico supplied 65% of US crude in 2024, with the Permian rising 12% year over year to 6.3 million barrels per day. High-quality rock, abundant infrastructure, and permissive regulations keep the basin central to the US oil and gas market. North Dakota’s Bakken added 1.1 million barrels per day, while Colorado’s DJ and Pennsylvania’s Marcellus anchored gas volumes that feed LNG trains.

Gulf Coast states are pivotal, as 90% of export liquefaction is located in Texas and Louisiana, with plans to reach a 40 bcf/d capacity by 2028. This expansion reduces basis differentials and intertwines domestic pricing with global markets, enhancing revenue visibility for upstream and midstream operators.

Appalachia delivered 35% of US gas output in 2024. Despite permitting friction, proximity to Northeast load centers and multiple pipeline corridors sustains competitive economics. Alaska’s long-cycle Willow project adds supply diversity and optionality for future Asia-oriented LNG exports. Collectively, regional specialization and infrastructure depth underpin the geographic robustness of the US oil and gas market.