United States Less than-Truck-Load (LTL) Market SIZE & SHARE ANALYSIS - GROWTH TRENDS & FORECASTS UP TO 2030

United States Less than-Truck-Load (LTL) Market Analysis

The United States Less than-Truck-Load (LTL) Market size is estimated at 114 billion USD in 2025, and is expected to reach 139.6 billion USD by 2030, growing at a CAGR of 4.13% during the forecast period (2025-2030).

The U.S. LTL market is experiencing significant transformation driven by substantial infrastructure investments and modernization initiatives. In March 2024, the U.S. Department of Transportation's Maritime Administration announced USD 450 million in funding through the Port Infrastructure Development Program to modernize coastal and inland ports, strengthen supply chains, and improve economic security. Additionally, the Federal Aviation Administration revealed a USD 110 million investment from the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law to enhance over 70 U.S. airports, with USD 43 million specifically allocated for Charlotte Douglas International Airport's taxiway construction. These investments demonstrate the government's commitment to developing robust transportation infrastructure that supports efficient freight transportation.

Cross-border trade dynamics are reshaping the LTL industry, with notable shifts in international trade patterns. Mexico has surpassed China as the largest exporter of goods to the United States, with Mexican exports reaching USD 475.6 billion in 2023, marking a 5% increase from 2022. This shift has prompted carriers to enhance their cross-border capabilities, as evidenced by XPO's expansion of its U.S.-Mexico service through XPO Mexico+ in July 2024, which now covers 99% of postal codes in Mexico. The evolving trade patterns are driving carriers to adapt their networks and service offerings to meet changing customer demands in the less than truckload sector.

The industry is witnessing significant regulatory changes and sustainability initiatives that are reshaping operational practices. Federal regulators have postponed several trucking regulations, including the speed limiter rule for trucks over 26,000 pounds, which has been delayed to May 2025. This regulatory adjustment provides carriers additional time to prepare for compliance while maintaining operational efficiency. In June 2024, gas prices demonstrated an unusual trend, falling to USD 3.44 per gallon during the peak summer season, providing temporary relief to carriers' operational costs in the ground transportation sector.

Technological advancement and operational efficiency improvements are becoming increasingly crucial in the LTL sector. In June 2024, Norwegian solar company NorSun announced a USD 620 million investment in Tulsa, Oklahoma, for its first U.S. manufacturing plant, highlighting the growing emphasis on domestic manufacturing capabilities and sustainable technologies. The industry is also witnessing increased adoption of automation and digital solutions, with carriers investing in advanced tracking systems, automated dock operations, and real-time visibility solutions to enhance service reliability and customer experience. These technological investments are crucial for maintaining competitiveness and meeting evolving customer expectations in the digital age, thereby influencing the LTL market size.

United States Less than-Truck-Load (LTL) Market Trends

United States leads regional GDP with 86% contribution, driven by infrastructure and supply chain investments

• In September 2024, the FAA, under the US Department of Transportation, allocated USD 1.9 billion in grants for 519 projects. These projects span 48 states, Guam, Puerto Rico, and other territories, all part of the Airport Improvement Program (AIP). Additionally, USD 269 million in Supplemental Discretionary Grants for 2023 will back 62 projects at 56 U.S. airports. This competitive initiative aids airport owners and operators in enhancing the U.S. airport system. Marking its largest round yet, this fifth AIP grant cycle funds diverse projects, from airport safety and sustainability upgrades to noise reduction. The grants cater to airports nationwide, regardless of size.
• With infrastructure development and the e-commerce boom, the transportation and storage sector is set for a job surge. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) projects a 0.8% annual growth rate from 2022 to 2032, translating to nearly 570,000 new jobs. Notably, the couriers and messengers industry, alongside warehousing and storage, is expected to drive about 80% of this job growth.

The United States remained a net crude oil importer in 2022, importing about 6.28 million bpd of crude oil from 80 countries

• Gasoline prices in the US are expected to drop below USD 3 a gallon for the first time in over three years by October 2024, just before the presidential election. Lower fuel prices are mainly due to weaker demand and falling oil prices, providing relief to consumers who have faced high costs that fueled inflation. This could also help Vice President Kamala Harris and other Democrats counter Republican criticism over high gas prices. In September 2024, the average price for regular gas was USD 3.25 a gallon, down 19 cents from last month and 58 cents from last year.
• According to US Energy Information Administration (EIA), crude oil prices will stay steady in 2024 compared to 2023, then decrease in 2025. The US' introduction of new refining capacities in 2023 will boost its operable capacity, alleviating price strain on oil products in 2024 and 2025. Furthermore, the Middle East, particularly Kuwait, will add new international refining capacities, which will help ease global price pressure on gasoline and diesel. Also, it is expected, narrowing crack spreads in 2024 are likely to lead to lower average US retail fuel prices in both 2024 and 2025. Gasoline prices are projected to USD 3.36/gal in 2024 and USD 3.24/gal in 2025.

OTHER KEY INDUSTRY TRENDS COVERED IN THE REPORT

• Retail sales in the United States expanded by 3.2% YoY in 2023 supported by consumer spending
• US oil production stabilizes at 13.2 million barrels per day, while major companies pursue mergers for Permian Basin output
• The number of e-commerce users in the United States is expected to reach 333 million by 2029 from 273 million in 2024
• Small- and medium-sized manufacturers (SMMs) comprise 98% of the US manufacturing firms as of 2023
• United States leads regional GDP with 86% contribution, driven by infrastructure and supply chain investments 
• US boosts highway investment by 55% to improve infrastructure, targeting supply chain efficiency by 2026
• Road infrastructure investments under the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law (2022-2026) focus on repairing existing roads and launching new road projects
• The United States is projected to become the world's fifth-largest rice exporter, with 3.1 million tons by 2031-32
• US imports from Mexico reached USD 475.6 billion in 2023, up 5% from 2022
• The trucking industry is expected to recruit nearly 1.2 million drivers over the next ten years to replace drivers leaving
• Over 12,000 medium- and heavy-duty electric trucks were put into service across the US between 2019 and 2023
• New commercial truck sales declined in Q2 2024, due to drop in Class 8 truck sales
• Investment in infrastructure worth USD 550 billion by 2026, to boost road freight volumes in the United States
• Growing exports and imports of petroleum, along with growing truck driver wages, are driving road freight pricing in the US despite a decline in fuel price
• Rising government efforts to support land (road and rail) mode of transport, with rising infrastructure investments
• Residue impact of economic shutdown on global supply chains led to an increase in food and energy prices

Segment Analysis: End User Industry

Wholesale and Retail Trade Segment in United States LTL Market

The Wholesale and Retail Trade segment dominates the United States Less-than-Truckload (LTL) market, commanding approximately 35% market share in 2024. It is also the fastest-growing segment, with a projected growth rate of around 5% during 2024-2029. This segment's prominence is largely driven by the robust growth in e-commerce, with the sector experiencing a 14% year-over-year growth in 2023. The continued penetration of e-commerce into the retail sector, despite economic uncertainties, has been particularly notable, with holiday shopping and online deals contributing significantly to this growth. Major developments in the segment include TikTok Shop's launch in the US in September 2023, which has introduced seamless product purchasing through creator content. Furthermore, the segment's growth is supported by projections indicating that total retail sales in the United States will reach USD 7.9 trillion by 2026, while the number of online buyers is expected to grow to 291.2 million by 2025, representing about 80.4% of the total population.

Remaining Segments in End User Industry

The manufacturing segment represents the second-largest portion of the market, benefiting from significant developments such as NorSun's USD 620 million investment in its first U.S. manufacturing plant in Tulsa, Oklahoma. The construction segment has been bolstered by substantial infrastructure investments, including the FAA's USD 110 million investment from the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law. The agriculture, fishing, and forestry segment has seen growth through government initiatives like the USD 110 million investment in meat and poultry processing. The oil and gas, mining, and quarrying segment maintains its presence in the market, supported by developments such as Chevron's operations at Jack/St. Malo and Tahiti facilities. The "Others" segment encompasses various industries, including environmental services and waste management, with notable developments like Clean Harbors' acquisition of HEPACO for USD 400 million.

Segment Analysis: Destination

Domestic Segment in United States Less-than-Truckload (LTL) Market

The domestic segment continues to dominate the United States Less-than-Truckload (LTL) market, commanding approximately 77% of the total market value in 2024. This substantial market share is supported by the segment's robust infrastructure network, comprising over 900 new dock doors nationally by Q1 2024. The segment's strength is further reinforced by major players like XPO Logistics, which reported EBITDA of more than USD 1 billion in the LTL segment and has been actively expanding its capacity through strategic investments. The domestic segment's dominance is also attributed to the growing e-commerce sector, established infrastructure, and increasing expansion opportunities across the country. Companies are focusing on investing in capacity before demand rises, which helps them gain profitable market share by offering top-quality service to customers.

International Segment in United States Less-than-Truckload (LTL) Market

The international segment is projected to be the fastest-growing segment in the United States Less-than-Truckload (LTL) market, with an expected growth rate of approximately 4% from 2024 to 2029. This growth is primarily driven by increasing cross-border trade activities, particularly with Mexico and Canada. Major developments supporting this growth include XPO's expansion of its cross-border service between the U.S. and Mexico with XPO Mexico+, which now covers 99% of postal codes in Mexico. The segment's growth is further supported by significant cross-border trade volumes, particularly in high-value goods such as computers and electronic parts. The implementation of strategic partnerships and service expansions by major carriers is expected to continue driving this segment's growth trajectory in the coming years.