Thailand Oil And Gas Market Size & Share Analysis - Growth Trends And Forecast (2025 - 2030)

Thailand Oil And Gas Market Trends and Insights

Robust Gas-Fired Power Build-Out Boosting Domestic Demand

EGAT’s current Power Development Plan calls for 15 GW of additional gas-fired capacity by 2030, a 40% step-up from 2024 levels.^{[1]EGAT, “Power Development Plan (PDP2024),” egat.co.th} Long-term supply contracts between independent power producers and PTTEP underpin a stable offtake for new upstream projects. Demand is concentrated in the Eastern Economic Corridor, where power and petrochemical requirements overlap, ensuring minimum load factors for new plants. Pipeline expansions from the Gulf of Thailand to Chonburi and Rayong have therefore gained priority approvals. Consequently, upstream investors view the Thailand oil and gas market as insulated from near-term demand volatility, encouraging a healthy drilling program pipeline.

New Gulf of Thailand PSC Licensing Rounds Opening Acreage

The 25th bidding round, with nine onshore blocks and improved fiscal terms, marks the first licensing window since 2018. Royalty rates have been lowered by one percentage point for exploration phases, while local-content rules are relaxed until field development commences. This fiscal reset arrives as Brent prices hover above USD 80/bbl, lifting netbacks for frontier drilling. International majors have pre-qualified teams focusing on shallow-water gas prospects that could enter production before 2030. Successful awards would counterbalance a 5% annual decline in legacy fields and reinforce the Thailand oil and gas market’s upstream-led growth narrative.

Ongoing Downstream Expansions at Map Ta Phut Petro-Complex

PTTGC’s USD 1.2 billion ethane cracker expansion adds 1 million tpa of ethylene capacity by 2026, while Dow Chemical’s USD 800 million polyethylene unit strengthens value-chain integration.^{[2]PTT Global Chemical, “Ethane Cracker Expansion Fact Sheet,” pttgcgroup.com} These projects increase domestic demand for NGL and lean gas, providing a back-of-the-envelope level of offtake security for Gulf of Thailand gas producers. The complex’s adjacency to deep-water berths lowers export logistics costs, enhancing Thailand’s regional competitiveness. New storage, such as Vopak’s 60,000 m³ ethane tank, improves feedstock optionality and supports turn-key contract opportunities for midstream players. Collectively, these assets anchor downstream profitability despite national pump-price controls.

LNG Regas Capacity Additions Improving Supply Security

The 7.5 mtpa Nong Fab terminal entered service in 2024, granting Thailand access to global spot LNG and mitigating pipeline supply risks from Myanmar. A 5 mtpa third terminal in Chonburi is undergoing FEED review, with a target FID by late 2025. Regas capacity raises system flexibility, enabling seasonal import arbitrage and safeguarding power plants during upstream maintenance shutdowns. Thailand also eyes re-export opportunities via interconnected pipelines to Laos and Cambodia, potentially creating an ASEAN trading hub. These moves enhance the resilience of the Thailand oil and gas market while widening revenue pools along the gas value chain.

Rapid Decline of Legacy Fields (Erawan, Bongkot)

Output from Erawan, once 25% of the national gas supply, is declining 15% per year due to a drop in reservoir pressure and rising water cut.^{[3]PTTEP, “Field Decline Management Report,” pttep.com} Bongkot shows parallel exhaustion trends, despite secondary recovery schemes. Chevron has allocated USD 2 billion for infill drilling, but geological limits cap incremental gains. The shortfall forces higher LNG imports, which squeeze the balance of payments and elevate power tariffs. Urgent replacement barrels and molecules therefore dominate operator capital budgets in the Thailand oil and gas market, crowding out discretionary exploration spend elsewhere.

Carbon-Intensity Scrutiny Under EU CBAM on Refined Exports

The EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism enters its monitoring phase in 2026, exposing Thai refiners shipping diesel and jet fuel to Europe to prospective carbon tariffs. Bangchak has begun ISO 14001 deployments, yet full Scope-1 emission cuts require multi-year furnace upgrades and renewable power PPAs. Added compliance costs could erode netbacks by USD 1/bbl for European-bound cargoes, thereby challenging the expansion economics of export-oriented capacity. This policy headwind nudges refiners toward higher-value petrochemicals and Asian demand centers, reshaping downstream flow patterns within the Thailand oil and gas market.

Segment Analysis

By Sector: Upstream Dominance Drives Market Growth

Upstream activities captured 73.7% of the Thai oil and gas market share in 2024, reflecting heavy capital expenditure (capex) to offset natural decline and bring discoveries onstream.^{[4]PTTME, “Offshore Maintenance Portfolio,” pttme.co.th} The segment is projected to post a 5.7% CAGR to 2030, outpacing midstream and downstream segments due to multi-well drilling campaigns, platform refurbishments, and early CCS pilots. The Thailand oil and gas market size attributed to the upstream sector stood at USD 3.3 billion in 2025, with PTTEP, Chevron, and TotalEnergies leading the investment. DigitalX workflow adoption has reduced unplanned downtime by 85%, resulting in higher asset uptime and lower lifting costs.

Midstream, while smaller, benefits from LNG terminal build-outs, new gas processing trains, and cross-border pipelines. Processing capacity additions at onshore gas plants preserve condensate quality, enabling premium pricing. Downstream faces margin compression due to regulated pump prices, yet receives structural support from the Eastern Economic Corridor’s petrochemical boom. As fuel subsidies unwind after 2026, refining utilization is expected to recover modestly, aided by increased export demand to Cambodia and Laos.

Note: Segment shares of all individual segments available upon report purchase

By Service: Maintenance Leadership Amid Decommissioning Surge

Maintenance and turnaround accounted for 48.3% of 2024 service revenue, as 450 offshore platforms require periodic inspections, valve overhauls, and topsides integrity checks. Aging jackets in the Gulf necessitate high scaffolding hours and subsea cathodic protection, validating the need for long-term framework contracts with providers such as PTTEP Energy Service. Decommissioning, though only 7% of 2024 revenue, is set for a 7.5 % CAGR, driven by Chevron’s 49-platform retirement campaign and Centurion’s 250 km pipeline plug-and-abandon scope. The Thailand oil and gas market size for decommissioning is forecast to touch USD 420 million by 2030, with high engineering barriers offering attractive margins.

Construction services occupy the middle ground, buoyed by LNG jetty builds and onshore compressor station upgrades. EPC contractors are embedding digital twin models to compress schedule risk and improve safety compliance. Service providers that combine asset integrity expertise with end-of-life removal solutions are well-positioned to secure bundled contracts as operators seek one-stop solutions for mature assets.

By Location: Offshore Concentration Reflects Resource Geography

Offshore output represented 64.9% of Thailand's oil and gas market size in 2024 and is forecast to grow 6.2% annually amid the intensive redevelopment of shallow-water blocks. Fixed-platform economics remain viable for water depths of 20–80 m and short tieback distances to onshore gas plants. Erawan, Arthit, and Bongkot alone host over 200 wellhead platforms, generating steady demand for marine logistics, drilling, and brownfield modifications.

Onshore, while holding a modest share, still appeals to independents, thanks to lower OPEX and easier land access. The current bidding round's nine blocks could surface small but quick-to-market finds that complement the national supply mix. Frontier areas in the Northern basins are being remapped using high-resolution 3D seismic data that was previously unavailable. Nonetheless, offshore will likely retain dominance given its remaining prospective resource base and existing infrastructure grid.

Note: Segment shares of all individual segments available upon report purchase

Geography Analysis

Thailand’s oil and gas activities are concentrated in the Gulf of Thailand and the Eastern Economic Corridor, where 80% of proven reserves and 60% of refining capacity are located. Rayong Province hosts Map Ta Phut, the hub for LNG imports, ethane cracking, and bulk chemical exports. Chonburi complements with tank farms and a forthcoming 5 mtpa regas terminal, reinforcing coastal supply resilience.

Power and industrial demand concentrate around Bangkok and Pathum Thani, creating a steady sink for pipeline gas delivered via the onshore trunk grid. Northern provinces, although resource-light, serve as distribution nodes for refined products transported by pipeline and road to Laos and Myanmar. In the south, Songkhla supports offshore logistics, while pipeline links to Malaysia facilitate cross-border swap arrangements.

Joint development of overlapping claims with Cambodia and Malaysia may unlock 11 trillion cubic feet (tcf) of gas and 300 million barrels (bbl) of liquids, although diplomatic negotiations extend the timelines beyond 2028. Successful framework agreements would diversify supply and defer LNG import dependence. The Thailand oil and gas market, therefore, benefits from both domestic clustering efficiencies and emerging regional integration pathways.