South America Glucagon-like Peptide-1 (GLP-1) Agonists Market Size & Share Analysis - Growth Trends and Forecast (2026 - 2031)

South America Glucagon-like Peptide-1 (GLP-1) Agonists Market Trends and Insights

Rising Type 2 Diabetes and Obesity Treatment Demand

Diabetes and obesity create the basic demand base for the South American GLP-1 agonists market. The IDF projects diabetes cases in South and Central America will reach 52 million by 2050. This projection represents a 46% increase from the 2024 level.^{[1]“IDF Diabetes Atlas, 11th Edition, South and Central America Region,” IDF Diabetes Atlas, diabetesatlas.org} Regional diabetes expenditure reached USD 81 billion in 2024. That amount represented 8% of global diabetes expenditure. 

The clinical role of these medicines also extends beyond glucose control. A 2025 SELECT analysis reported a 20% reduction in major adverse cardiovascular events with semaglutide. The study covered patients with obesity and established cardiovascular disease.^{[2]“Semaglutide and Cardiovascular Outcomes by Baseline and Changes in Adiposity Measurements,” The Lancet, thelancet.com} The South American GLP-1 agonists market, therefore, has a broader clinical base than diabetes treatment alone. Treatment adoption will still depend on physician capacity and payer coverage.

Expansion of Specialist-Led Weight-Management Prescribing

Specialist prescribing is making obesity care more structured in major South American cities. Endocrinologists and obesity specialists can identify patients who need long-term therapy. They can also monitor treatment response and side effects. This care model supports continued use rather than intermittent purchases. It is especially relevant where medicines are largely paid for privately. The South American GLP-1 agonists market benefits when care pathways combine diagnosis, prescription, and follow-up.

Continuous glucose monitoring can support this approach for patients with diabetes. It gives clinicians more information when they adjust treatment plans. Novo Nordisk announced a Brazilian public-system pilot involving 1,000 patients at 3 health units in 2026.^{[3]“Novo Nordisk Announces 8 Billion DKK Investment in Montes Claros, Brazil,” Novo Nordisk, novonordisk.com} Future evaluation of public treatment models could affect the accessible patient population. The South American GLP-1 agonists market will remain tied to the availability of qualified prescribers and covered treatment pathways.

Increasing Availability of Weekly Injectable Pens

Weekly injectable pens remain the leading delivery format in the South American GLP-1 agonists market. Their clinical evidence base is extensive across diabetes and obesity. Less frequent dosing can reduce the treatment burden compared with daily injections. Device design also affects the practical use of chronic therapy. Multidose devices can reduce the number of separate pen purchases. Supply reliability remains necessary for these benefits to reach patients.

ANVISA approved a multidose Mounjaro pen in March 2026. The authorization covered 6 concentration formats in 1 device. This format may lower the per-application cost for some patients. Temperature requirements remain important outside large urban areas. Providers need appropriate storage and dispensing systems. These conditions can limit the South American GLP-1 agonists market in areas with weak cold-chain capacity.

Local Manufacturing and Post-Patent Competition

Local manufacturing has become more important for access and supply in Brazil. It can reduce dependence on imported finished products and drug substances. It can also shorten some supply chains. ANVISA approved the first synthetic semaglutide pen, Ozivy, in May 2026. The approval established a regulated pathway for domestic competition. It also created greater price pressure on branded injectable semaglutide. The South American GLP-1 agonists market may gain volume as lower-priced choices become available.

Novo Nordisk announced an 8 billion DKK (~USD 1.26 billion) production investment in Montes Claros, Brazil, in 2025. The project is intended to increase production capacity in Brazil. Competition will not remove the need for quality controls. Regulatory review remains important for synthetic and biosimilar products. Price competition is most likely to shape the injectable semaglutide part of the South American GLP-1 agonists market.

High Out-of-Pocket Treatment Cost

Out-of-pocket costs remain a major obstacle across the South American GLP-1 agonists market. Branded tirzepatide and high-dose semaglutide can exceed the budgets of many middle-income households. Cost pressure can lead patients to delay treatment or discontinue it. Lower-priced semaglutide can help in Brazil, but availability will differ across countries.

ANVISA cited manufacturing noncompliance and illegal sales without prescriptions. This intervention highlights the relationship between affordability and product safety. Patients need consistent access to regulated products. Countries without near-term semaglutide competition may face stronger affordability constraints. The South American GLP-1 agonists market will need both lower prices and reliable pharmacy oversight.

Restricted Reimbursement and Uneven Public-Sector Access

Reimbursement policies limit the conversion of regulatory approvals into routine patient use. The 2026 FIFARMA WAIT Indicator reported 23% extended availability for innovative cardiometabolic medicines across 10 South American countries. It reported availability delays of 22 to 43 months after approval. These delays were pronounced in Chile, Brazil, and Panama. The result is a smaller treated population than regulatory eligibility suggests. The South American GLP-1 agonists market remains concentrated in private-pay channels where public coverage is narrow.

Chile excludes GLP-1 medicines from its public system. Colombia uses multistep prior authorization for liraglutide. Argentina restricts certain reimbursement for patients with documented cardiovascular events. These rules prioritize limited public budgets and clinically defined groups. The South American GLP-1 agonists market needs evidence that links treatment access with health-system value.

*Our forecasts treat driver/restraint impacts as directional, not additive. The impact forecasts reflect baseline growth, mix effects, and variable interactions.

Segment Analysis

By Molecule: Semaglutide Led Revenue While Tirzepatide Grew Faster

Semaglutide held 51.35% of the South American GLP-1 agonists market share in 2025. Its position reflected established use through Ozempic for Type-2 Diabetes and Wegovy for obesity. The molecule has a long prescribing history across the region. Brazilian competition increased after the semaglutide patent expiry in March 2026. ANVISA approved Ozivy as the first synthetic semaglutide pen in May 2026. This approval introduced a regulated domestic alternative. More product options can increase use among price-sensitive patients.

Tirzepatide is forecast to expand at a 9.22% CAGR through 2031. Its dual GLP-1 and GIP mechanism supports its differentiated clinical position. Tirzepatide remains insulated from the Brazilian semaglutide price cycle. Liraglutide, dulaglutide, and exenatide retain roles in legacy prescribing and cost-focused procurement. Dulaglutide retains value through its auto-injector format. The other category can broaden as approved products enter the South American GLP-1 agonists market.

By Route of Administration: Injectable Pens Retained Scale, While Oral Tablets Offered Future Choice

Injectable pens accounted for 87.42% of the South American GLP-1 agonists market size in 2025. They had the largest clinical evidence base and commercial availability. Injectable products also fit established pharmacy storage and dispensing practices. Weekly dosing supports ongoing treatment for patients who accept self-injection. However, device access can be difficult in remote locations. Cold-chain conditions can also limit distribution outside major cities.

Oral tablets are expected to grow at an 8.74% CAGR through 2031. Eli Lilly reported successful results from a third Phase 3 trial for orforglipron in August 2025. Oral products could appeal to patients who do not want injections. They could also reduce dependence on specialized device logistics. Regulatory approval is still required before these products affect regional sales. The South American GLP-1 agonists market could gain a broader delivery mix after approvals.

By Indication: Type-2 Diabetes Was the Core Use, While Obesity Advanced Faster

Type-2 Diabetes accounted for 78.13% revenue share in 2025. The indication has established protocols and a large diagnosed patient population. Diabetes also has a substantial unmet detection need across the region. The disease burden supports continuing demand for glucose-lowering medicines. GLP-1 treatment has clinical relevance for patients with cardiometabolic risks. The South American GLP-1 agonists market remains anchored in diabetes care. Broader screening could increase the treated population over time.

Obesity/weight management is projected to grow at a 10.17% CAGR through 2031. Obesity has become a more formal treatment focus for health systems and specialists. Semaglutide also has cardiovascular evidence for defined high-risk patients. Emerging uses such as MASH can diversify clinical demand. Payer coverage will determine whether those uses become broadly accessible in the South American GLP-1 agonists market.

By Distribution Channel: Hospital Pharmacies Led While Online Pharmacies Expanded

Hospital pharmacies held 47.42% revenue share in 2025. They benefit from institutional cold-chain infrastructure and specialist-adjacent care. They also participate in insurance-negotiated sales and public tenders. These capabilities support the handling of temperature-sensitive injectable medicines. Retail pharmacies serve patients paying directly for treatment. Channel choice depends on availability, price, and prescription requirements.

Online pharmacies are projected to expand at 9.65% CAGR through 2031. Brazil’s prescription-retention rules for GLP-1 medicines took effect in June 2025. The rules require a retained prescription at dispensing. They support more formal controls over medicine sales. Online dispensing can be convenient for patients on stable weekly regimens. The South American GLP-1 agonists market can benefit from digital channels when compliance systems are robust.

Geography Analysis

Brazil accounted for 59.82% of the South American GLP-1 agonists market share in 2025. It has the region’s most active GLP-1 regulatory environment. It also has a large private healthcare and pharmacy base. Domestic manufacturing adds another source of strength. Novo Nordisk’s Montes Claros investment supports expanded local production capacity.

ANVISA approved the first synthetic semaglutide pen in 2026. This can increase unit availability and pressure branded injectable prices. Brazil’s prescription-retention framework took effect in June 2025. It strengthens dispensing controls and pharmacovigilance. Formal pharmacy operators may benefit from these requirements.

The public system still has limited access to GLP-1 treatment. Most demand, therefore, remains within private channels. Local production may improve supply, but does not ensure public reimbursement. Argentina is projected to grow at an 11.2% CAGR through 2031. ANMAT updated its commercialization authorization framework for synthetic medicinal products in June 2025. Colombia, Chile, Peru, and other countries face reimbursement, cold-chain, and healthcare-spending constraints.