South America Bunker Fuel Market Size & Share Analysis - Growth Trends and Forecast (2026 - 2031)

South America Bunker Fuel Market Trends and Insights

Rising Marine Transportation Of Essential Commodities In South America

Exports of soybeans, corn, iron ore, copper, and lithium continue to lift voyage counts and sustain bunker demand across major Atlantic and Pacific ports. Brazil shipped 102 million tonnes of soybeans and 55 million tonnes of corn in 2024, while Vale moved 380 million tonnes of iron ore primarily to China.^{[2]United States Department of Agriculture, “Oilseeds: World Markets and Trade,” USDA, usda.gov} Chile exported 5.5 million tonnes of copper and 180,000 tonnes of lithium carbonate, feeding steady bunker liftings at Valparaíso, San Antonio, and Quintero.^{[3]Chilean Copper Commission, “Chile Copper Exports 2025,” Cochilco, cochilco.cl} Argentina’s Vaca Muerta pipeline project will allow very large crude carriers to load by 2027, creating additional uplift demand at Punta Colorada. Commodity flows remain resilient because longer transit times offset slow-steaming fuel savings. Infrastructure expansions scheduled through 2028 will cement this medium-term influence on the South America bunker fuel market.

Supportive IMO-2020 Compliant Fuel-Switching Incentives And Local Sulfur-Tax Breaks

Regulators introduced cost-relief mechanisms that reward vessels burning lower-sulfur fuels. Brazil’s National Waterway Transport Agency waives port-fee surcharges for fuels at or below 0.10% sulfur, and Argentina’s Prefectura Naval grants dockage-fee reductions for ISO 8217-compliant deliveries.^{[4]Brazilian National Waterway Agency, “Sulphur Tax Incentive Program,” ANTAQ, antaq.gov.br} Chile aligned with IMO 2020 requirements in 2025, accelerating the shift from 3.5% sulfur HSFO to VLSFO and MGO. These measures prompt shipowners to retrofit scrubbers or switch to compliant fuels within the next two years. They also establish a precedent for differentiated port charges tied to carbon intensity, likely supporting emerging LNG and methanol supply chains.

Accelerating Pre-Salt Crude Exports Boosting Demand At Brazilian And Uruguayan Hubs

Petrobras’s pre-salt output reached 2.86 million barrels per day in late 2024, and new floating production units will push capacity above 3.2 million barrels per day by 2026. Each additional Suezmax or Aframax voyage departing Santos or Rio de Janeiro typically takes on 1,200-1,800 tonnes of bunker fuel, adding roughly 400,000 tonnes of annual demand by 2028. Uruguay’s Montevideo port, upgraded under a long-term concession, is attracting spillover traffic from Brazilian crude terminals. Sustained Chinese and Atlantic Basin crude imports support a structural rise in tanker-borne fuel demand, bolstering the South America bunker fuel market outlook.

Rapid Port-Call Growth On Asia-South America Container Loops

Liner operators expanded direct Asia services after Panama Canal slot normalization. Maersk’s AE55 and Ocean Network Express’s SAX rotations add more than 120 container-ship calls annually to Santos and Paranaguá. Santos alone handled 4.37 million TEU in the first nine months of 2025, up 7.8% year on year. Additional calls translate into an estimated 180,000 tonnes of incremental bunker demand each year, primarily served offshore to minimize berth delays. Rising Brazil-China trade volumes and Argentine import liberalization support continued fleet deployments.

Persistent Crude-Price Volatility Impacting Bunker Price Stability

Brent crude oscillated between USD 70 and USD 90 per barrel during 2025, driving 15-20% monthly swings in VLSFO and HSFO prices at Santos and Buenos Aires. Shipowners on fixed freight contracts experience margin pressure and often defer bunkering when local premiums exceed USD 30 per tonne relative to benchmark hubs. Only 22% of South American volumes moved under quarterly fixed-price deals in 2025, far below Singapore’s 45% share, which forces traders to hold larger working-capital buffers. Limited derivative liquidity, South America accounts for less than 2% of global marine-fuel swaps, hampers risk-management options.

Delayed LNG Bunkering Infrastructure Build-Out Across Atlantic And Pacific Coasts

Only three of twelve proposed small-scale LNG terminals achieved financial close by end-2025, leaving dual-fuel vessels reliant on truck-to-ship transfers under 80 tonnes per operation. Maersk and CMA CGM routinely detour to Caribbean or European hubs for LNG bunkering, curtailing regional volumes to roughly 120,000 tonnes in 2025 despite double-digit demand potential. Uruguay’s GNL Del Plata project will mitigate the shortfall after its expected 2027 start, but Brazil’s Atlantic and Chile’s Pacific terminals remain stalled over offtake agreements.

Segment Analysis

By Fuel Type: HSFO Dominance Gives Way To Steady LNG Expansion

High-sulfur fuel oil retained 43.8% of the South America bunker fuel market share in 2025, supported by a large fleet of scrubber-equipped tankers and bulk carriers that can legally consume 3.5% sulfur fuel. LNG volumes, though smaller, are projecting a 13.3% CAGR that will steadily erode HSFO share as more dual-fuel vessels enter service. VLSFO serves container and general-cargo vessels that have not installed exhaust-gas-cleaning systems, while MGO fills niche auxiliary-engine demand where fuel-quality thresholds are strict. Methanol, ammonia, and synthetic fuels remain embryonic because engines and handling infrastructure are limited, yet multiple liner operators have placed methanol-capable vessels on order for post-2027 deployment. Bio-bunkers occupied roughly 1.2% of 2025 volumes and hinge on feedstock economics; cost parity with MGO will determine whether the category scales beyond early-adopter volumes.

The South America bunker fuel market size attributable to LNG could rise from 950,000 tonnes in 2025 to more than 2 million tonnes by 2031 if shore-side infrastructure reaches the planned twelve terminals. Delivered LNG in Santos averaged USD 14 per MMBtu in 2025, which equates to a 12-15% fuel-cost saving versus VLSFO on an energy-equivalent basis, although capital amortization for dual-fuel engines narrows the margin over a 20-year horizon. ULSFO retains a niche role for vessels entering emission-control areas outside the region, but limited South American demand keeps blended supply tight. The South America bunker fuel market continues to balance cost, compliance, and infrastructure maturity when allocating bunker-fuel budgets across HSFO, VLSFO, LNG, and emerging alternatives.

Note: Segment shares of all individual segments available upon report purchase

By Bunkering Method: Offshore Transfers Sustain Efficiency, LNG Barges Emerge

Ship-to-ship transfers captured 50.2% of 2025 volumes because offshore deliveries minimize port dwell time, a key benefit when Santos terminals average three-day queues. Tankers and container ships alike schedule mid-passage refueling that allows continuous cargo operations and reduces congestion surcharges. Port-to-ship truck and pipeline deliveries remain important for MGO and VLSFO in terminals with refinery connections, but their share is slipping as vessel sizes increase and operators demand quicker turnarounds. Portable tank solutions meet residual demand in remote Chilean and Peruvian locations where fixed assets are absent.

LNG barge-to-ship delivery represents the fastest-growing method, poised for a 12.5% CAGR once Brazil’s Paranaguá and Uruguay’s GNL Del Plata facilities come online. The South America bunker fuel market size linked to LNG barges could triple by 2031 as dual-fuel container vessels schedule synchronized bunkering alongside cargo operations. Regulatory support is improving; Brazil’s ANTAQ published simultaneous cargo and LNG bunkering guidelines in 2024 that align with International Gas Carrier Code safety standards. As infrastructure matures, the mix will tilt toward barges that provide higher throughput and safer handling compared with truck transfers.

By Vessel Type: Tanker Incumbency Faces Container-Ship Surge

Tankers held 29.9% of total consumption in 2025, supported by Vale’s Valemax ore carriers and Petrobras crude exports that require large bunker stems before trans-Atlantic voyages. The segment’s share will soften marginally as slow-steaming offsets part of the added voyage count, but absolute volumes continue climbing with pre-salt output. Container vessels present the fastest expansion at 6.9% CAGR, driven by new weekly loops that employ 10,000 TEU tonnage and require 400-600 tonnes per call. Bulk carriers, which lift Brazil’s grain and Chile’s copper cargoes, show seasonal spikes tied to harvest cycles, prompting suppliers to pre-stage inventories during second-quarter peaks.

The South America bunker fuel market size for container vessels reached an estimated 4.3 million tonnes in 2025 and could approach 6 million tonnes by 2031 if planned port expansions sustain double-digit TEU growth. Offshore support vessels and seismic ships represent a small but strategic category that demands higher-grade fuels such as MGO and ULSFO near offshore installations. Passenger and ro-pax ferries remain niche, concentrated in southern Chilean fjords and Argentine coastal services, yet they exemplify early adopters of bio-fuel blends under corporate carbon programs.

Note: Segment shares of all individual segments available upon report purchase

Geography Analysis

Brazil's bunker-fuel ecosystem is anchored by Santos and Rio de Janeiro, where refinery proximity, deepwater access, and pre-salt crude exports underpin steady demand growth. Current volumes exceed 9 million tonnes and could rise 2% annually if crude output meets Petrobras' guidance. Diverse fuel availability, from HSFO to bio-blends, gives Brazil pricing power, yet refinery divestments are lowering barriers for foreign traders that offer digital ordering and flexible credit terms. Future expansion hinges on LNG terminal completion at Paranaguá and on the successful deployment of blockchain-based delivery notes that reduce dispute risk.

Argentina is regaining a competitive footing after December 2025 reforms scrapped bunker-quantity caps and invited independent suppliers into Buenos Aires and Zona Común. Spot premiums narrowed, and physical supply climbed to nearly 2 million tonnes as GAC and others entered the market. Vaca Muerta pipeline completion will attract VLCCs that each uplift more than 2,000 tonnes per voyage, reinforcing a 6.4% forecast CAGR. The main challenge remains macroeconomic stability, because currency and financing volatility can deter sustained supplier presence.

The rest of South America, chiefly Chile, Uruguay, Peru, Colombia, and Ecuador, collectively accounts for just under 30% of regional demand. Montevideo's USD 455 million terminal upgrade positions it as a transshipment and overflow hub, especially when Santos congestion surges. Callao's successful bio-fuel pilot marks the Pacific coast's first low-carbon option, while Valparaíso and San Antonio lag until LNG and VLSFO storage projects reach sanction. Colombia's Caribbean ports explore LNG barges that could interconnect with Trinidad's liquefaction infrastructure, offering dual-fuel vessels a new bunkering waypoint on north-south trades.

Note: Segment shares of all individual segments available upon report purchase