Refining Catalysts Market Size & Share Analysis - Growth Trends and Forecast (2025 - 2031)

Global Refining Catalysts Market Trends and Insights

Stricter Global Sulfur-Cap Regulations

The International Maritime Organization’s 0.50% sulfur limit for marine fuels, effective since January 2020, still reverberates across coastal refineries that now hydrotreat residual streams to supply compliant bunker blends. China’s nationwide China VI gasoline and diesel standards, implemented in 2024, limit sulfur to 10 ppm and forced state-owned refiners to add hydrotreating capacity equal to nearly 1.2 million barrels per day of throughput. The United States Environmental Protection Agency’s Tier 3 gasoline program maintains a comparable 10 ppm cap, bolstering demand for noble-metal alumina catalysts that reach deep desulfurization under moderate hydrogen partial pressures. Europe’s Fuel Quality Directive replicates the 10 ppm threshold, reinforcing NiMo and CoMo demand throughout the continent. Overlapping mandates deliver a 0.8 percentage-point uplift to the base CAGR mainly through 2026 as multiple deadlines converge.

Refinery Capacity Build-Out in Asia-Pacific and Middle East

Greenfield and brownfield projects in China, India, Saudi Arabia, and Kuwait add roughly 3 million barrels per day of crude distillation between 2024 and 2028, translating into multi-ton catalyst charges for FCC, hydrotreating, and hydrocracking units. Saudi Aramco and China Petrochemical Corporation’s Fujian complex will consume an estimated 12,000 tons of zeolite FCC catalysts annually at full stride, while India’s Panipat, Gujarat, and Barauni expansions boost local hydrotreating demand through 2027. Kuwait’s Al-Zour refinery processes 615,000 barrels per day of heavy crude, relying on NiW and CoMo residue hydrocracking catalysts to maximize middle-distillate yields. The combined build-out contributes a 0.9 percentage-point push to the forecast CAGR, peaking as these new units reach nameplate throughput over 2026-2028.

Rising Demand for Higher-Octane Gasoline and Petro-Feedstocks

Turbocharged engines and hybrid powertrains support ongoing demand for 95 RON and 98 RON gasoline grades even where total gasoline volumes plateau. Modern FCC units equipped with rare-earth Y-zeolites lift octane by 2-3 numbers without sacrificing conversion efficiency. Petrochemical complexes simultaneously prize propylene and butylene, prompting refiners to deploy ZSM-5 additives that raise light-olefin yield by up to 15% in commercial service^{[1]BASF SE, “ZSM-5 Additive Raises Propylene Yield,” BASF Press Release, basf.com} . North American operators follow the same path: ExxonMobil’s Beaumont expansion, finished in 2024, added 250,000 barrels per day of crude capacity through FCC trains tailored for propylene recovery. The octane and petro-feedstock push adds 0.5 percentage points to the CAGR with medium-term resonance.

Bio-Feed Co-Processing Needs Dual-Function Catalysts

Renewable diesel and sustainable aviation fuel mandates in Europe and North America force refiners to co-process vegetable oils or waste fats that challenge conventional hydrotreating catalysts. Shell’s Pernis refinery accommodates up to 30% bio-derived feedstocks by deploying NiMo catalysts tolerant of oxygenates and coking precursors. Topsoe’s HydroFlex technology, running at more than 10 sites by late 2025, integrates hydro-deoxygenation with saturation reactions to secure renewable diesel yields above 90%. Combined policies under the United States Renewable Fuel Standard and California’s Low Carbon Fuel Standard mandate roughly 15 billion liters of renewable diesel a year by 2027, generating an incremental 2,500 tons of catalyst demand annually. This driver contributes 0.3 percentage points to growth with long-term momentum.

Volatility in Cobalt, PGMs, and Other Critical Metals

Cobalt prices rose 18% in 2025 on tight supply from the Democratic Republic of Congo, while platinum and palladium climbed 12% amid South African output curbs. CoMo hydrotreating catalysts that contain 2-4% cobalt by weight face margin compression because regulated fuel prices limit pass-through. Platinum-bearing reforming catalysts see similar strain: a 10% palladium rise inflates finished-catalyst cost by roughly USD 50 per kilogram. Suppliers pursue cobalt-free NiW chemistries and accelerate recycling to cushion volatility, yet commercialization may take two to three years. Price swings trim 0.4 percentage points from the base CAGR, with most impact between 2024 and 2026 as refiners lengthen change-out intervals.

EV Penetration Curbing Long-Term Gasoline Demand

Battery-electric vehicle sales reached 14 million units in 2025, removing nearly 200,000 barrels per day of gasoline demand, and the International Energy Agency expects that figure to triple by 2030^{[2]International Energy Agency, “World Energy Outlook 2025,” IEA, iea.org} . Europe’s gasoline use dropped 6% between 2019 and 2025 as the electric-vehicle share surpassed 25% of new car sales in Norway, the Netherlands, and Germany. China’s gasoline plateaued at 3.2 million barrels per day by 2024, with plug-in vehicles representing 38% of passenger-car sales in 2025. These shifts erode FCC throughput, cut absolute zeolite volume per barrel, and subtract 0.5 percentage points from growth with medium-term prominence.

Segment Analysis

By Product Type: Zeolites Anchor FCC Economics

Zeolites captured 96.01% of the refining catalysts market share in 2025 and are expected to grow 2.72% annually through 2031. This extensive dominance underscores how the refining catalysts market revolves around FCC operations that crack vacuum gas oil into gasoline, diesel, and light olefins. Rare-earth Y-zeolites remain the workhorse at riser temperatures of 500 °C-550 °C, while ZSM-5 additives lifted propylene production and represented about 8% of total zeolite use in 2025. CoMo catalysts accounted for roughly 2.5% of the refining catalysts market size, primarily in Asian and Middle Eastern hydrotreaters facing high-sulfur feeds. NiMo formulations held a similar 2.3% share, with aviation-fuel refiners favoring these systems for kerosene desulfurization. Alumina-supported noble-metal products served niche reforming duties at 0.8% of volume as precious-metal volatility limited broader uptake. NiW catalysts, favored for residue hydrocracking in heavy-crude regions, filled another 0.6%. The residual 0.3% encompassed experimental solutions like metal-organic frameworks. Clariant’s 2025 launch of a hierarchical zeolite that blends micro- and mesopores illustrates incremental yet valuable innovation within the dominant segment.

The impending replacement cycle illustrates continuing strength for zeolite formulations despite electric-vehicle demand erosion. Asia-Pacific FCC units designed for petro-integration specify higher ZSM-5 doses, and Middle Eastern residue hydrocrackers specify NiW systems with superior metal tolerance, providing volume diversity. Cobalt-free NiW formulations entering pilot trials may eventually capture share from CoMo in diesel hydrotreaters, but commercialization is unlikely before 2028, suggesting a stable competitive mix through the midpoint of the forecast window.

Note: Segment shares of all individual segments available upon report purchase

By Process: FCC Dominance Masks Hydrotreating Growth

Fluid catalytic cracking accounted for 74.91% of 2025 catalyst volume and is set to expand at a 2.77% CAGR from 2026 to 2031, aligning with the refining catalysts market growth pattern in emerging hubs. Hydrotreating processes collectively held roughly 20% of volume, with diesel hydrotreating leading at 8%, then vacuum-gas-oil hydrotreating at 5%, kerosene at 3%, gasoline at 2%, catalytic-cracking gasoline at 1.5%, and residual feeds at 0.5%. China’s 10 ppm sulfur cap for diesel and gasoline reinforced NiMo and CoMo demand across the national refinery network. The United States Tier 3 rule does the same for noble-metal alumina formulations that trim hydrogen use. Hydrocracking consumed 3% of volume and favors India and the Middle East, where refiners prioritize middle-distillate yields. Residue FCC accounted for about 2% but remains crucial in sites without coking units. Bio-feed co-processing blurs process boundaries: Shell’s 30% renewable-feed run in a hydrocracker uses dual-function catalysts that merge hydrotreating and hydrodeoxygenation, hinting at the gradual convergence of catalyst families.

Hydrotreating’s share creeps upward over the forecast horizon because every incremental sulfur rule or renewable diesel mandate directly expands catalytic desulfurization service. FCC maintains volumetric primacy, yet more of its barrels target propylene or butylene, altering zeolite specifications rather than absolute tons. Process diversification, therefore, sustains the refining catalysts market even as headline gasoline demand plateaus.

Note: Segment shares of all individual segments available upon report purchase

Geography Analysis

Asia-Pacific accounted for a 52.03% share of the global refining catalyst market. China and Saudi Aramco’s Fujian complex will eventually draw 12,000 tons of zeolite annually, and Indian expansions add significant hydrocracking demand under Albemarle’s USD 45 million contract. Southeast Asian projects in Indonesia, Vietnam, and Thailand add about 500,000 barrels per day of distillation capacity through 2028, broadening hydrotreating and FCC opportunities.

North America and Europe face refinery shutdowns and electric-vehicle-driven gasoline decline. Europe’s 6% gasoline retreat from 2019-2025 and North American unit reconfiguration toward propylene and diesel reshape catalyst specifications rather than spark volume growth. The United States Tier 3 rule keeps noble-metal demand steady, and Canada’s oil-sands upgraders sustain specialized hydrocracking volume. Yet the refining catalysts market in these mature regions edges sideways as plant rationalization offsets unit upgrades.

South America accounts for a considerable share of the global refining catalyst market. Argentina’s La Plata hydrocracker, scheduled for 2027, adds 600 tons of annual demand. These incremental additions solidify the region’s leadership in growth rate terms, even if Asia alone retains absolute volume dominance.

The Middle East and Africa are witnessing a significant rise in demand for refining catalysts with the fastest 2.78% CAGR to 2031. Saudi Arabia’s liquids-to-chemicals agenda and Kuwait’s Al-Zour heavy-crude platform generate constant demand for residue hydrocracking catalysts. Africa presents long-term upside through Nigeria’s 650 000 barrel-per-day Dangote refinery, which when fully loaded in 2026 will require roughly 5 000 tons of FCC and hydrotreating catalysts each year. South Africa’s Secunda gas-conversion retrofit will lift hydrotreating volume by 15%.