North America Metal Cans Market Size & Share Analysis - Growth Trends And Forecast (2025 - 2030)

North America Metal Cans Market Trends and Insights

Growing beverage industry momentum

North American beverage producers are scaling output of energy drinks, hard seltzers, and functional beverages, thereby lifting unit demand for cans. Crown Holdings reported low single-digit can volume growth in North America during Q1 2025, yet global segment income jumped 24%, showing firms can still price through inflationary input costs. Arca Continental earmarked USD 900 million in 2025 to expand plants in Mexico and the U.S. Southwest, a move designed to serve 125 million consumers across both sides of the border. Smaller formats are taking share because brands use them to position SKUs as premium, which raises the total number of cans per hectoliter sold. Seasonal swings force producers to build inventory during Q1 and Q4, causing tightness in body-maker availability each spring. Statistics Canada confirmed underlying demand by showing January 2025 manufacturing sales up 3.0% year over year, with food and beverages key contributors.^{[1]Statistics Canada, “Monthly Survey of Manufacturing, January 2025,” statcan.gc.ca}

Aluminium circularity strengthens adoption

Recycled aluminum requires 75% less energy than primary smelting, a reality that underpins corporate net-zero pledges and state waste targets. The Can Manufacturers Institute puts the U.S. aluminum can recycling rate at 43%, and producers now incorporate up to 77% recycled content in new cans. Novelis forecasts global can-sheet demand to rise at 4% CAGR from 2023-2031, driven largely by RTD water, wine, and energy drinks that rely on the metal’s barrier properties. The Bay Minette, Alabama, rolling mill-first such U.S. facility in nearly 40 years-added 600,000 t of annual capacity in 2025, anchoring regional supply. Tariff pressure has paradoxically pushed brands to favor recycled billets over imported primary metal, as the cost delta widened above USD 300/t in Q3 2025.

Premium ready-to-drink beverages upscale can usage

RTD cocktails and canned wines leverage improved graphics and matte finishes to differentiate at shelf, raising average revenue per can. Ball’s proprietary high-resolution print lines enable 360-degree photorealistic branding that resonates with millennials and Gen Z consumers seeking bar-quality flavor in portable formats. Canadian forecasts indicate 25% aluminum tariffs scheduled for 2025 could add 5-10% to can costs, spurring local filling investments and a shift to higher-alcohol RTDs that deliver more margin per ounce. CANPACK’s Quadromix® system enables four distinct visuals in a single shrink run, letting RTD brands test limited editions at low volume without retooling. FDA labeling rules for alcohol are already familiar to can makers, shortening time-to-market for wineries pivoting away from glass. Outdoor consumption bans on glass at concerts and beaches have further entrenched aluminum as the go-to premium container.

Domestic can-sheet capacity expansion

Local sourcing shields converters from shipping delays and currency volatility. Novelis’ Bay Minette complex recycles and rolls in one location, reducing lead times for high-purity sheet by up to four weeks compared with Asian imports. Techint Engineering won a USD 255 million mandate in March 2025 to double Vinton Steel’s annual output, easing tin-mill steel bottlenecks for three-piece food cans. Hydro is enlarging extrusion lines in Pennsylvania to supply seamless impact-extruded pharmaceutical cans, boosting domestic supply for regulated drug formats. Trade policy matters: the 50% tariff on Russian primary aluminum enacted in June 2025 accelerated offtake contracts between Novelis and Ardagh, locking in volumes through 2028. Reduced trucking miles from mill to filler, also cut Scope 3 emissions, and helped brand owners hit science-based targets.

Proliferation of PET and flexible pouches in food and drink

Brand owners courting cost-sensitive shoppers are shifting tomato sauces, beans, and even carbonated drinks into pouches or lightweight PET. Arca Continental and Coca-Cola Mexico invested MXN 56.5 million (USD 3.3 million) in April 2025 to expand a PET bottle collection plant that will reclaim 380 million bottles annually, signaling long-term plastic circularity commitments. PetStar already recovers 7 of every 10 bottles it places on the market and feeds 30.3% recycled resin back into new containers, narrowing sustainability gaps with metal. Flexible pouches now incorporate high-barrier EVOH layers and laser-scored easy-open features, eroding cans’ convenience edge for ready-to-eat soups. Food-grade retort pouches can trim shipping weight by up to 40%, translating into downstream logistics savings for e-commerce grocers. Regulatory agencies remain format-neutral as long as shelf-life and migration rules are met, reducing historical default to steel in shelf-stable foods.^{[2]Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, “Packaged Food Trends in Canada,” agriculture.canada.ca}

Volatile aluminium and steel coil prices

LME aluminum traded in a USD 2,300-2,900/t band through 2025, forcing converters to renegotiate pass-through clauses each quarter. Midwest premium spikes to 62-63 ¢/lb compressed margins for can-makers holding fixed-price contracts. Silgan cited USD 10 million in weather-driven pack-plan disruption costs during Q3 2024 after a major customer cut orders by 30% amid raw-material sticker shock. Steel is similarly fragile: only three domestic tin-plate lines remain in operation, and import dependency sits near 70%, exposing food can producers to freight surcharges and quota limits. Currency swings also matter-Canadian fillers hedge USD exposure because most coil purchases are denominated in dollars despite sales booked in CAD, adding financial complexity.

Segment Analysis

By Material Type: Aluminum Dominance Driven by Sustainability

Aluminum held a 71.61% North American metal cans market share in 2024, and its 5.63% forecast CAGR underscores deep alignment with recycling mandates and consumer perception of eco-friendliness. This dominance has been cemented by beverage brands that promote infinite recyclability on-pack, a claim that steel cannot match without higher energy use. The North American metal cans market size benefits further from Novelis’ 600,000-ton Bay Minette mill, which cuts sheet lead times and adds post-consumer recycled content capacity for premium RTD brands. Steel retains relevance in large-volume food formats, yet tariff risk and thin domestic capacity threaten its economics. Emerging technologies such as VulCan’s Toyo Ultimate Can (aTULC) remove bisphenol coatings and water from forming steps, positioning aluminum for regulatory compliance wins in health-sensitive categories.

In parallel, steel’s import reliance near 70% exposes fillers to shipping snarls and quota limits, which can stall promotions that depend on large 28-oz cans for soups or beans. Aluminum’s 75% energy savings when produced from scrap is resonating with retailers setting Scope 3 targets, and that narrative drives procurement teams to lock in recycled sheet volumes through 2030. Recycled aluminum also helps beverage companies hedge against raw-material inflation because scrap prices lag LME movements by up to six months. These structural advantages explain why aluminum’s position is unlikely to erode even if steel coil prices retreat.

By Can Structure: Two-Piece Efficiency Meets Aerosol Expansion

Two-piece cans commanded 53.53% of 2024 revenue, illustrating the central role of drawn-and-ironed efficiency in high-speed beverage lines.^{[3]Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A., “2024 20-F Filing,” ardaghmetalpackaging.com} The North American metal cans market size gains scale benefits when fillers run 2,400-can-per-minute cans on standard 12-oz lines that have been tuned over decades. However, monobloc aerosol formats are on track for a 6.23% CAGR to 2030 thanks to pharmaceutical spray treatments and premium personal-care SKUs that demand seamless bodies. Nearly half of Ardagh Metal Packaging’s 2024 shipments were specialty shapes, proving value-added structures can achieve volume relevance.

Pharmaceutical regulations around leachables push suppliers toward monobloc aluminum that avoids weld lines and uses ultra-clean lubricants. CCL Container recently scaled a line in Connecticut capable of 300 million inhaler units per year, underscoring demand from respiratory drug makers. Conversely, three-piece construction lingers for foodservice coffee and paint where sizes exceed 1 L, but growth is flat. The supply-chain bottleneck sits with body-maker machines; OEM lead times stretch to 14 months, and builders such as Stolle and SLAC have backlogs through 2026, constraining two-piece expansion.

By Capacity/Size: Mid-Range Formats Anchor Premium Price Architecture

Cans of 250-500 ml captured 31.42% of 2024 revenue, balancing portion control and production efficiency. Form factors in this range deliver margin because consumers perceive them as “just right” for energy drinks or sparkling waters that retail above USD 2 per unit. The ≤250 ml tier is forecast to pace the segment with a 5.32% CAGR, reflecting demand for canned wines and craft spirits that seek premium single-serve occasions. Aluminum slip lids and snap closures enable wineries to achieve resealability, supporting on-premise sampling programs banned under some state liquor laws during COVID.

Larger 500-1,000 ml sizes remain staples for multi-serve beers, though craft brewers now migrate to slim 568 ml designs to stand out on the shelf. Over 24 oz, viability narrows to sports hydration and automotive fluids, where large mouth diameters aid fast pour. Each size change triggers costly line adjustments: changeover time exceeds four hours in legacy plants, encouraging fillers to cluster SKUs by format. Brands, therefore, weigh SKU complexity against incremental velocity when allocating shelf space.

By Manufacturing Process: Impact Extrusion Moves Beyond Niche

Drawn-and-ironed maintained a 32.35% share in 2024 by churning out standard beverage cans at the lowest unit cost. Yet impact extrusion will post the fastest 5.45% CAGR as pharma aerosol lines demand seamless bodies and tighter tolerances. Hydro’s extrusion upgrades in Pennsylvania dovetail with FDA rules requiring low particulates for pulmonary therapies, giving impact-extruded cans a credibility advantage. Drawn-and-redrawn remains the workhorse for deep-draw food cans, though investors hesitate to commit capital due to stagnant soup volumes.

Capital intensity is diverging: a new D&I line costs USD 140 million and takes 18 months to install, while impact extrusion cells can be deployed modularly inside nine months at one-third the capex, albeit with lower output. VulCan’s aTULC process eliminates epoxy water baths, cutting operating costs by 15% and shortening line length by 20 meters. These savings widen the addressable base for impact extrusion into deodorants and insecticides that were previously cost-prohibitive.

Note: Segment shares of all individual segments available upon report purchase

By End-User Industry: Pharmaceuticals Emerge as Growth Catalyst

Beverages still generated 38.52% of 2024 sales, but pharmaceuticals will lead with a 6.71% CAGR through 2030, reflecting surging demand for metered-dose inhalers and barrier-packaged nutraceuticals. RTD cocktails, sparkling water, and energy drinks keep aluminum utilization high by promoting recyclability stories on the pack. Yet inhalers, sterilized saline sprays, and high-pressure nitrogen-filled canisters command up to 4× the unit margin, enticing converters to shift spare capacity into health care.

Personal-care aerosols such as dry shampoos and SPF sprays also migrate to monobloc aluminum to sidestep rust risk in humid bathrooms. Automotive fluids and industrial chemicals remain niche due to strict material compatibility tests that often require internal coatings; still, chemical companies appreciate the puncture resistance of steel when shipping corrosives. Regulatory familiarity gives cans an edge: Health Canada’s migration limits and the U.S. FDA’s indirect additive codes are already established for aluminum, whereas emerging polymer formats must run new submissions.

Geography Analysis

The United States accounted for 71.33% of 2024 regional revenue thanks to a deep beverage filling base and mature deposit systems that capture used cans at scale. Ball’s recent purchase of Florida Can Manufacturing, completed in January 2025, immediately added 3 billion annual units of slim-line beverage capacity to serve Southeastern demand. The North American metal cans market size in the U.S. also benefits from state extended producer-responsibility bills that incentivize closed-loop sourcing agreements between fillers and scrap dealers. Equipment lead times, however, constrain supply; body-maker backorders stretch past 2026, creating seasonal shortages that push buyers to spot imports from South America at premiums above USD 35 per 1,000 units.

Canada leverages stringent Health Canada rules, which streamline cross-border harmonization for food-contact materials. The CAD 77.6 billion(USD 55.64 billion) packaged-food sector (USD 60.5 billion) provides steady volume in soups and vegetables, where high-acid retort stability pushes brands to stick with metal. Aluminum tariff scenarios could lift can costs by 5-10% in 2025, but local fillers counteract by negotiating offtake contracts tied to the Bay Minette mill output. E-commerce grocery has exploded; dairy categories logged a 79.2% online CAGR in 2024, elevating the need for dent-resistant packaging when last-mile carriers handle crates. Canadian craft breweries in Ontario and British Columbia increasingly choose sleek 355 ml aluminum to differentiate from mainstream 473 ml tallboys, adding a premium mix.

Mexico is forecast to grow at a 6.06% CAGR, fueled by Grupo Modelo’s USD 3.6 billion expansion across breweries and can lines through 2028. Near-shoring lures suppliers such as ArcelorMittal, which lifted flat-steel output 32.5% at its Lázaro Cárdenas complex to 5.3 million t, ensuring tin-plate availability for three-piece food cans. COFEPRIS alignment with FDA regulations reduces compliance hurdles for U.S. fillers shifting volume south to tap lower labor costs. Arca Continental’s investment in PET reclamation underlines cross-material competition but also indicates growing circularity infrastructure. Mexico’s proximity to Bay Minette improves logistics on recycled aluminum coil, shortening lead times by 20%, important during peak beverage season. Government tax incentives for automotive and medical-device clusters will further boost demand for aerosol lubricant and sterilant cans.