Mexico Oil And Gas Downstream Market Size & Share Analysis - Growth Trends And Forecast (2025 - 2030)

Mexico Oil And Gas Downstream Market Trends and Insights

Government refinery-upgrade program bolstering utilization rates

Processing volumes across PEMEX’s six refineries climbed from 511 kb/d in 2018 to 1.23 MMb/d by early 2024 after successive rehabilitation outlays and Deer Park’s integration. The National Refining System is budgeted MX$136 billion through 2030 to replace critical units, debottleneck coking trains, and raise power reliability. While these efforts underpin the Mexican oil and gas downstream market, actual utilization still lingers below 60% because recurring maintenance backlogs outpace annual capital expenditure (capex) allocations. Dos Bocas reached only 115 kb/d throughput—34% of its design capacity—by May 2025, reflecting the absence of cogeneration and gas interconnects. The 2025-2035 roadmap now prioritizes debt reduction to unlock cash flow for turnarounds, a move expected to lift the Mexico oil and gas downstream market in the medium term.^{(2)Mexico Business News Staff, “The Year in Oil and Gas: A New Administration,” Mexico Business News, mexicobusiness.news}

Commissioning of Dos Bocas refinery adding 340 kbd new capacity

Dos Bocas is the country’s largest downstream investment in decades, designed for 340,000 barrels per day of heavy-crude runs that could trim Mexico’s gasoline and diesel import dependence by 30%. Operational reality diverged from design: the plant reached only 115 kbd—34% of its nameplate capacity—by May 2025 because the cogeneration island and natural-gas interconnects were not yet finished. Its location in Tabasco provides direct access to Maya crude from Cantarell and Ku-Maloob-Zaap, reducing haulage costs compared to imported light blends. Even at reduced throughput, Dos Bocas has proven it can yield gasoline, diesel, and fuel oil that previously required costly imports. Once the cogeneration unit, sulfur-recovery trains, and tank-farm tie-ins are completed, the refinery is expected to increase national processing capacity beyond 1.5 MMb/d, thereby reinforcing the Mexican oil and gas downstream market. Continuous monitoring through SEMARNAT’s environmental framework ensures emissions control and wastewater handling, aligning with federal energy sovereignty goals.

Rising gasoline & diesel consumption from an expanding vehicle fleet

Mexico added nearly 900,000 light and heavy vehicles in 2024, maintaining nationwide sales resilience despite inflationary pressures. Northern border states post the fastest demand growth because cross-border logistics rely heavily on diesel, thereby elevating regional demand for the Mexican oil and gas downstream market. The federal government capped average retail prices at MX$23 per liter in 2025 and synchronized the IEPS tax adjustment at 4.5%, shielding demand from volatility. These measures stabilize margins for wholesale distributors while sustaining throughput requirements at refineries. Pipeline congestion and limited storage capacity, however, still hamper timely product flow to inland terminals.

Near-shoring-led petrochemical demand boom in northern clusters

Relocation of electronics, automotive, and packaging supply chains has attracted more than USD 20 billion of greenfield commitments into Tamaulipas, Nuevo León, and Coahuila. This surge prompts the addition of ethane and propane streams, encouraging joint ventures and the construction of import terminals that expand the Mexican oil and gas downstream market. Braskem Idesa’s ethane terminal and the Pacifico Mexinol complex—set to deliver 2.1 million t/y methanol using carbon-capture technology—represent flagship investments supported by IFC and multilaterals.^{(3)ChemAnalyst Editorial Team, “NextChem Secures Licensing Contract for Ultra-Low Carbon Methanol Plant in Mexico,” ChemAnalyst, chemanalyst.com} Although feedstock tightness persists, PEMEX has signaled its willingness to formalize supply contracts, anchoring private confidence.

Chronic maintenance backlogs keeping utilization below 60%

Supplier arrears topping MX$430 billion have led key contractors to idle rigs and curtail works, a scenario that translates into fewer spare parts and delayed turnarounds across the Mexico oil and gas downstream market. The Cadereyta refinery is scheduled to face 2025 environmental hearings that could restrict throughput until emission controls are improved. Pemex secured a USD 10 billion liability management package but still requires additional funding to cover pipeline inspections, storage roof repairs, and delayed coker upgrades. The new “Oil Rights for Well-Being” fiscal scheme promises lighter royalty loads; however, the timing of its execution remains uncertain. Until full funding is secured, operational rates remain subdued.

Policy volatility and frequent contract reviews deterring FDI

The January 2025 secondary energy laws merged CRE and CNH into a National Energy Commission, centralizing approvals under SENER and boosting state oversight. Shell’s sale of more than 200 stations to Iconn underscores how abrupt rule changes are pushing established multinationals to scale back. Although mixed contracts remain possible, uncertainty surrounding import permits, storage concessions, and clean-fuel targets makes long-term capital expenditures unattractive. This restraint tempers external capital inflows that could otherwise expand the Mexico oil and gas downstream market.

Segment Analysis

By Type: Refineries drive capacity while petrochemicals accelerate

Refineries accounted for 64.8% of Mexico's oil and gas downstream market in 2024, a dominance amplified by the Deer Park acquisition and the start-up of Dos Bocas. Despite the increase, refinery utilization lags behind design capacity because maintenance scheduling cannot keep pace with component failures. The Mexico oil and gas downstream market size attributed to refineries is expected to increase, as MXD 136 billion in federal funds is allocated to desulfurization, power generation, and dock expansion.

Petrochemical plants, in contrast, are expected to log a 4.2% CAGR to 2030, the fastest within the Mexican oil and gas downstream market. The Pacifico Mexinol project and Braskem Idesa's ethane terminal open additional capacity that meets near-shoring-driven demand, positioning northern clusters as major consumers. Sustained feedstock contracts and private-sector operational discipline underpin the petrochemical trajectory.

Note: Segment shares of all individual segments available upon report purchase

By Product Type: Refined products maintain leadership despite petrochemical momentum

Refined petroleum products accounted for 49.9% of Mexico's oil and gas downstream market in 2024, supported by price caps and import substitution drives that raised domestic throughput. The Mexico oil and gas downstream market size for refined products is projected to expand steadily as improved utilization lifts diesel and gasoline output.

Petrochemicals, although smaller today, are experiencing a 3.9% CAGR driven by near-shoring and low-carbon mandates that favor methanol, polyethylene, and specialty resins. Lubricants remain a niche but stable segment, feeding heavy-industry hubs in Monterrey and Saltillo.

By Distribution Channel: Wholesale dominance faces commercial-channel growth

Direct sales and wholesale operations accounted for 62.5% of the Mexican oil and gas downstream market in 2024, as PEMEX Logística utilized its pipeline and terminal network to supply government agencies and large distributors. The Mexico oil and gas downstream market share of wholesale channels may contract modestly as specialized distributors capture customers seeking flexible terms and conditions.

Distributors and commercial outlets will post a 4.6% CAGR through 2030, leveraging import terminals and private storage to offer blended grades, low-sulfur bunkers, and petrochemical feedstocks. Retail remains constrained by brand exits, yet domestic players, such as Oxxo Gas and Iconn, continue to expand their networks under local franchise models.

Note: Segment shares of all individual segments available upon report purchase

Geography Analysis

The Gulf Coast remains the operational backbone of the Mexico oil and gas downstream market, hosting five of six PEMEX refineries and the new Dos Bocas site. Crude proximity and dock infrastructure provide the region with scale advantages, although lingering maintenance gaps limit utilization. Northern border states form the fastest-growing demand corridor, fueled by USMCA trade flows and USD-pegged retail pricing that encourages diesel uptake for logistics fleets.

Central Mexico, anchored by Mexico City, Guadalajara, and Querétaro, consumes more than one-third of the nation's gasoline yet relies on long-haul pipelines and rail. IEnova's 650,000-barrel terminal, located outside the capital, reduces stock-out risk and increases flexibility for the Mexican oil and gas downstream market.^{(4)IEnova Corporate Website, “Energy Infrastructure in Mexico,” IEnova, ienova.com.mx}

Pacific ports—Manzanillo, Topolobampo, and Lázaro Cárdenas—are emerging as bunkering and petrochemical export hubs. The Pacifico Mexinol complex utilizes Topolobampo's deepwater access to ship green and blue methanol to Asian customers, reflecting geographic diversification within the Mexican oil and gas downstream market.