Latin America Glucagon-like Peptide-1 (GLP-1) Agonists Market Size & Share Analysis - Growth Trends and Forecast (2026 - 2031)

Latin America Glucagon-like Peptide-1 (GLP-1) Agonists Market Trends and Insights

Rising T2D And Obesity Prevalence Fuels Baseline Demand

Adult diabetes cases in South and Central America climbed from 32 million in 2021 to 35.4 million in 2024 and are projected to reach 51.5 million by 2050, creating a vast patient pool for the Latin America GLP-1 agonists market.^{[1]International Diabetes Federation, “IDF Diabetes Atlas 2024,” International Diabetes Federation, diabetesatlas.org} Mexico's 2023 documented 38.9 percent of obesity prevalence among adults, while 37.3 percent of the population is classified as overweight or obese, creating a high patient pool of individuals.^{[2]World Obesity Federation Data Team, “Mexico Obesity Prevalence Dataset,” World Obesity Federation, data.worldobesity.org} In Brazil, 16.6 million residents carry a diabetes diagnosis, yet fewer than 40% achieve HbA1c targets under public care models. Better adherence profiles for once-weekly GLP-1 agents therefore present a clinical upgrade over older sulfonylureas. Regional cardiovascular-mortality data further underline the urgency of therapies that simultaneously address glycemia, weight, and cardiometabolic risk.

Physician Shift Toward Once-Weekly And Dual-Incretin Therapies

Brazilian and Mexican endocrinologists report 30%-40% higher 12-month persistence for once-weekly semaglutide or dulaglutide compared with daily liraglutide. Tirzepatide’s 2.0%-2.5% mean HbA1c reduction in SURPASS studies outperformed semaglutide by roughly 0.5 percentage points, prompting Mexico’s regulator to authorize the drug for obesity in 2024. Survey data from Brazil showed 62% of specialists preferring weekly regimens for patients with prior adherence issues. Private insurers in São Paulo and Rio logged a 45% annual jump in once-weekly GLP-1 scripts in 2025, showing that convenience translates to volume gains once costs moderate.

Gradual Reimbursement Expansion In Brazil, Colombia, And Beyond

Although Brazil’s health-technology body CONITEC deferred full semaglutide incorporation in 2024, the 2025 federal budget increased diabetes-drug funding by 15%, hinting at future tender capacity.^{[3]News Article, “Brazil’s Conitec Rejects GLP-1 Slimming Drugs for Inclusion in SUS,” Navlin Daily, navlindaily.com} Colombia’s benefit plan already covers liraglutide for high-BMI patients, while Mexico’s IMSS logged a 1.8% HbA1c drop and 8 kg weight loss in its 2024 pilot that combined semaglutide with remote monitoring. Argentina’s PAMI allows dulaglutide for retirees with cardiovascular history, setting precedent for indication-based access even amid fiscal pressure.

Local Manufacturing And Fill-Finish Investments Lower Supply Risk

Novo Nordisk’s USD 1.09 billion upgrade to its Montes Claros complex, announced in April 2025, will begin producing GLP-1 pens domestically in late 2026, shielding the Latin America GLP-1 agonists market from future import bottlenecks. EMS’s R$ 60 million Hortolândia plant opened in August 2024, and its tech-transfer pact with Fiocruz aims to supply 2 million biosimilar pens per year by 2028. Mexican authorities are evaluating similar pacts with Liomont and Probiomed. Local capacity not only cuts logistics risk but satisfies procurement clauses that favor national content in public tenders.

High Therapy Cost And Patchy Public Coverage

Monthly branded semaglutide costs reach BRL 1,200 (USD 240) in Brazil—about 80% of the minimum wage—placing it out of reach for many SUS beneficiaries. Mexico’s IMSS serves less than 5,000 GLP-1 patients annually via exception pathways, despite more than 12 million diabetics. Argentina and Colombia apply strict prior-authorization hurdles that lengthen initiation and depress uptake, effectively confining large segments of the Latin America GLP-1 agonists market to private payers.

Global Supply Shortages And Allocation Caps

2023-2024 shortages saw Latin American shipments cut by roughly 25% as U.S. and European demand soared. Brazil’s regulator logged 487 shortage complaints in the first half of 2024, and Mexico instituted parallel-import fast tracks to offset caps. Persisting physician caution on supply reliability dampens new starts even in 2026.

Segment Analysis

By Drug: Semaglutide Dominance Faces Dual-Agonist Disruption

Semaglutide captured 51.35% of the Latin America GLP-1 agonists market in 2025 thanks to once-weekly convenience and robust SUSTAIN and STEP data. Tirzepatide’s 12.12% forecast CAGR reflects its dual receptor mechanism and superior weight-loss performance, with COFEPRIS granting an obesity label in 2024. Dulaglutide maintains a steady user base among Brazilian private insurers who favor its auto-injector design, while liraglutide’s daily-injection regimen is losing ground to longer-acting rivals. Biosimilar pipelines will accelerate after semaglutide’s Brazilian patent expiry in March 2026, as Fiocruz-EMS aims for 2 million annual pens by 2028. Oral semaglutide remains a niche alternative for needle-averse patients, though fasting-administration requirements curtail adherence.

In value terms, tirzepatide could command 30% of the drug class by 2031 if HTA bottlenecks clear and price parity tightens. Exenatide and lixisenatide remain relegated to cost-sensitive tender lots, preserving minimal but steady volume. The Latin America GLP-1 agonists market size for pipeline and biosimilar entrants is projected to grow quickly once public sectors secure 30%-40% list-price discounts.

Note: Segment shares of all individual segments available upon report purchase

By Route Of Administration: Injectable Pens Anchor Market

Injectable pens controlled 91.68% revenue in 2025 thanks to pre-filled accuracy, once-weekly scheduling, and audible dose cues that benefit low-vision patients. Brazil’s telemedicine rule accelerates pen adoption because video-based injection training is easily delivered. However, oral tablets are projected for a 10.35% CAGR as private plans expand Rybelsus coverage and as potential biosimilar competition narrows cost gaps. If oral semaglutide prices fall below USD 150 per month once local licensees enter, tablets could reach a 15% share by 2031.

Pen innovation continues: Novo Nordisk’s FlexTouch and Eli Lilly’s KwikPen incorporate tactile feedback that reduces dosing errors. Mexico’s labeling rules mandate Spanish instructions and tactile dose indicators, raising costs yet boosting patient safety. The Latin America GLP-1 agonists market size for pens still dwarfs tablets, but oral formats will increasingly attract first-line therapy seekers who dislike injections.

By Indication: Obesity Applications Gain Momentum

Type 2 diabetes generated 87.36% of 2025 revenue, but obesity-related demand is forecast to expand at 11.57% CAGR. Regulatory nods for Wegovy in Mexico and Brazil widen eligibility to millions of high-BMI adults, while cardiovascular-outcome data support use in secondary prevention. WHO’s 2025 guideline underpins broader payer consideration, increasing the Latin America GLP-1 agonists market size for cardio-renal indications by an estimated 25%. Yet cash-pay barriers keep real-world penetration below 200,000 patients so far, implying enormous headroom once biosimilar pricing compresses.

Obesity prescriptions may outgrow diabetes scripts after 2028 if public payers embrace cost-offset logic tied to reduced heart-failure hospitalizations and dialysis rates. Cardiovascular-risk coverage under private plans in São Paulo already rose in 2025, and Mexico’s ISSSTE is examining similar add-on benefits for 2027.

Note: Segment shares of all individual segments available upon report purchase

By Distribution Channel: E-Commerce Disrupts Traditional Retail

Retail chains accounted for 61.24% of 2025 sales, but e-commerce and tele-pharmacy are set for a 12.79% CAGR through 2031. Brazil’s Resolution 2314 green-lights online prescribing, while Drogasil’s 24-hour cold-chain delivery addresses pen-temperature constraints. E-pharmacy share already hits 8% in São Paulo and Rio, and Farmacias Guadalajara is piloting similar last-mile services. Hospital pharmacies stay stable, dispensing mainly to inpatients or clinic-based diabetes programs. Long-form prescription retention rules introduced in 2025 favor well-capitalized platforms with enterprise IT, skewing volume toward dominant e-pharmacy brands.

By End User: Homecare Leads, Private Clinics Accelerate

Homecare and self-administration captured 53.78% revenue in 2025, as once-weekly auto-injectors minimize clinic visits. Specialist-led private clinics should grow at 11.24% CAGR as payers see value in dose-optimization protocols that reduce ER admissions for hypoglycemia or GI events. Hybrid consultation models—initial in-clinic titration followed by telehealth—shrink overhead and appeal to cost-conscious insurers. Hospitals maintain a role in complex cases and pre-bariatric protocols, but their share is capped by outpatient-dispensing rules. The Latin America GLP-1 agonists market continues to tilt toward patient-managed care pathways.

Note: Segment shares of all individual segments available upon report purchase

Geography Analysis

Brazil generated 59.82% of 2025 revenue, buoyed by a 16.6 million diabetes population and 50 million private-insured lives. Novo Nordisk’s USD 1.09 billion Montes Claros expansion plants defensive roots against biosimilar pressure and embeds local content for SUS tenders. Fiocruz-EMS aims to deliver 2 million biosimilar pens annually by 2028, which could trim prices 30%-40% and enlarge public access. Patent expiry in March 2026 invites further generics, potentially accelerating volume but pressuring branded margins within the Latin America GLP-1 agonists market.

Mexico is forecast for a 10.57% CAGR, propelled by IMSS pilots pairing semaglutide with tele-monitoring and by a regulator that green-lit tirzepatide for obesity in 2024. ISSSTE added dulaglutide for albuminuric patients in 2025, illustrating payer willingness to bankroll therapies with proven renal outcomes. Parallel-import fast tracks eased but did not fully resolve supply gaps, and broader IMSS formulary inclusion remains the swing factor for future growth.

Argentina, Colombia, Chile, and Peru contribute smaller but steady increments. Argentina’s ANMAT approval of tirzepatide has yet to convert into volume because reimbursement remains restricted to retirees with cardiovascular events. Colombia covers liraglutide for high-BMI cases but imposes multi-step prior authorization. Chile’s public system still omits GLP-1 agents, limiting uptake to private insurers. Currency volatility and lower health-care spend slow penetration, yet IDF’s prevalence forecast suggests eventual policy shifts once biosimilar prices sink.