TUNISIA GRAIN MARKET SIZE & SHARE ANALYSIS - GROWTH TRENDS & FORECASTS (2025 - 2030)

Tunisia Grain Market Trends and Insights

Investments in Infrastructure and Modernization

The Tunisian Cereals Office plans to expand grain storage capacity by 120,000 metric tons in 2025, distributed across Rades (40,000 metric tons), Sousse (58,000 metric tons), and Sfax (38,000 metric tons). The office will simultaneously renovate existing silos to maintain a stable grain supply. The new storage facilities require TND 205 million (USD 66.6 million), while silo renovations will cost TND 143 million (USD 44.5 million). The construction contracts specify modular steel designs for rapid assembly and reduced maintenance in port areas with high salinity. These infrastructure improvements enhance Tunisia's food security and increase the grain sector's resilience to climate and economic challenges.

Rising Barley Demand for Animal Feed and Beer Production

Barley serves as a secondary cereal crop in Tunisia, primarily supporting the livestock feed sector. While produced in lower volumes than wheat, it mainly serves as a feed grain for ruminants and livestock, with a small portion used in malt production for brewing. Tunisia's barley seeded area increased to 412,000 ha from 395,000 ha in Marketing Year 2024-2025^{[1]Ministry of Agriculture and Farmer Associations}, while the USDA report 2025 forecasts consumption in MY 2025-2026 at 940,000 metric tons, maintaining an average growth rate of approximately two percent. The grain is predominantly used in feedlots and as supplemental feed, particularly in areas with stressed rangelands. The brewing industry's demand has contributed to increased barley imports, with ITC Trade Map data showing import volume reaching 1.43 million metric tons in 2023, a 99% increase from the previous year's 0.71 million. Tunisia has implemented import liberalization following a successful trial period in the market year 2023-2024, reducing state budget expenditure and aligning with recommendations from international institutions and donors, marking a transition from the Office des Céréales (Cereal Board) monopoly to private sector participation in barley imports.

Favoring Government Policies Supporting the Market

The government of Tunisia is supporting the grains sector by collaborating with international organizations. The World Bank provided a USD 300 million loan for the Emergency Food Security Response Project to support certified seed distribution, input vouchers, and direct income transfers in place of blanket subsidies.^{[2]World Bank} The Ministry of Agriculture allocated TND 2,400 million (USD 760 million) for grain purchases in 2024-2025, enabling cooperatives to offer competitive prices to farmers and encourage increased planting. The Office des Céréales implemented e-procurement systems to improve transparency and reduce administrative processing times. These combined measures have strengthened farmer confidence, leading to increased cultivation area despite weather uncertainties.

Adoption of Salt-tolerant Durum Wheat Cultivars

Tunisia's grain market is experiencing growth through the adoption of salt-tolerant durum wheat cultivars, which enable farmers to maintain stable yields in saline soil conditions. The National Agronomic Research Institute of Tunisia (INRAT) has identified high-performing Tunisian wheat varieties with enhanced salt tolerance through agro-physiological screening and genetic introgression. The incorporation of Nax genes has improved durum wheat grain yield in saline soils by reducing sodium accumulation in leaves. This development is essential for Tunisia, where soil salinity affects more than 10% of arable land and restricts conventional wheat cultivation. The implementation of salt-tolerant cultivars allows farmers to expand wheat production into previously unviable areas, reducing import dependency and enhancing food security. These improvements strengthen the sustainability and resilience of Tunisia's grain market.

Prevalence of Drought Conditions

Tunisia's grain market faces significant constraints due to drought conditions that affect crop yields, water availability, and food security. The country has experienced three consecutive years of drought, causing reservoir levels to fall to 25% of capacity and requiring water rationing by authorities. Grain harvests have decreased by 60%, with domestic production falling to 250,000 metric tons. The combination of high input costs, crop failures, and limited irrigation has forced farmers to increase grain imports from Ukraine and Romania. Climate models project a long-term rainfall reduction of up to 15%, indicating a continued reliance on imports of approximately 30% even during favorable growing seasons. While the implementation of water-efficient drip irrigation systems and drought-tolerant seed multiplication programs is increasing, their adoption rate remains insufficient to address the current climate challenges.

Unavailability of Proper Storage and Transportation Facilities

Tunisia's grain market faces significant constraints due to inadequate storage and transportation infrastructure, resulting in post-harvest losses, supply chain inefficiencies, and increased import dependency. The market experiences post-harvest losses of 10-15%, which negatively impact farmer incomes and increase import costs. The current silo network capacity of 508,000 metric tons falls short by 300,000 metric tons, necessitating open-air storage that increases the risk of aflatoxin contamination. Small-scale farmers in interior regions must transport grain over 150 km on poor-quality roads to reach certified elevators, incurring additional transportation costs. While there are plans to expand storage capacity by 120,000 metric tons, this addresses only 40% of the current deficit. According to World Bank analysis, resolving these storage constraints could reduce annual wheat import volumes by 7-10%.

Geography Analysis

Tunisia's grain market operates within its Mediterranean climate, which supports wheat, barley, and pulses production while facing challenges from frequent droughts and water scarcity. The country's primary grain-producing regions are in the north and coastal areas, particularly Bizerte, Beja, and Jendouba, which benefit from higher rainfall and fertile soils. The central and southern regions, including Sfax and Gabes, experience arid conditions that limit grain cultivation and necessitate increased imports from Ukraine, Romania, and Russia.

Imports constitute a fundamental component of Tunisia's grain market. In 2024, wheat and barley imports reached USD 1.1 billion, accounting for approximately 10% of total merchandise imports. The import composition has evolved, with Russian volumes increasing to 1.1 million metric tons in 2023, while French shipments decreased due to shifting price benchmarks. The Office des Céréales implements staggered cargo scheduling to prevent freight congestion and storage overflow at Rades port, Tunisia's main grain entry point. The 2024 bilateral protocols establish quality and phytosanitary standards, enhancing supply chain efficiency.

Tunisia’s port-logistics revamp aims to raise berth productivity from 12 to 18 ships per month, matching peers and safeguarding Tunisia's grain market share in regional trans-shipment. Knowledge-exchange missions to Italian and Spanish ports feed into master-plan updates that envisage bonded warehousing zones, potentially repositioning Tunisia as a value-added milling and re-export hub.