Commerce Media Services Market Size & Share Analysis - Growth Trends and Forecast (2026 - 2031)

Global Commerce Media Services Market Trends and Insights

First-Party Data Monetization After Third-Party Cookie Loss

The decline of third-party identifiers has made first-party purchase and loyalty data more important to the commerce media services market. Retailers can use consented transaction signals to support targeting and measurement within their own digital properties. IAB projected 12.1% commerce media growth in 2026 and linked the outlook to the continued development of first-party data ecosystems and repeat purchases.^{[1]IAB, “2026 Outlook Study: U.S. Ad Spend to Rise 9.5%,” IAB, iab.com} This position gives retailers a data asset that open-web publishers cannot replicate without direct transactional relationships. Smaller retailers can also use category-specific loyalty data in areas such as pharmacy and specialty food, where relevance may matter more than audience scale. The commerce media services market can therefore support narrower networks that offer advertisers a defined customer context and measurable purchase outcomes.

Margin Expansion From High-Gross-Margin Media Revenue

Media income has become a strategic revenue stream for retailers as their core operations face profitability pressure. Walmart reported strong growth in global advertising revenue, while Walmart Connect U.S. revenue also grew significantly. This performance has encouraged retailers to use advertising to fund store digitization, loyalty program development, and data infrastructure. Grocery retailers, which typically operate with lower net margins, have a strong incentive to develop media businesses that leverage customer data and existing digital traffic. This model can strengthen the commerce media services market, as investments in advertising tools also enhance retailers’ ability to sell and measure campaigns. It may also widen the gap between retailers with meaningful digital customer relationships and those that have not yet developed them.

Closed-Loop Measurement and Incrementality Proof

Advertisers increasingly require evidence that campaigns caused sales rather than merely received credit for transactions that would have occurred anyway. IAB and IAB Europe issued guidance for incremental measurement in commerce media in November 2025, covering controlled experiments, synthetic control approaches, and proxy models. The guidance provides a shared reference point for retailers, agencies, and advertisers that need to compare measurement practices. IAB also stated that improved AI-supported measurement could unlock substantial media investment over the near term. Networks that validate incremental sales can better defend their pricing and retain annual advertiser commitments. This trend makes independent testing and transparent reporting central to the commerce media services market, rather than optional reporting features.

Offsite and Full-Funnel Expansion Into CTV and Social

The commerce media services market is extending beyond retailer websites and applications into connected TV, social platforms, display, and audio. IAB projected continued growth in U.S. digital video advertising spending, supported by rising year-over-year demand. The expansion allows retailers to apply their purchase data to media channels where brand campaigns have historically relied on demographic targeting. Offsite retail media spending is expected to increase significantly as advertisers seek inventory beyond crowded onsite search results. This shift broadens the reachable audience while keeping transaction signals available for campaign measurement. The commerce media services market is consequently moving toward a fuller campaign model that combines product discovery, brand awareness, and conversion activity.

Fragmented Measurement and Reporting Standards

The absence of a common reporting standard remains a material constraint for the commerce media services market. IAB Europe found that many respondents identified a lack of standardization and network fragmentation as significant barriers to retail media growth.^{[2]IAB Europe, “Commerce Media Measurement Standards V2.1,” IAB Europe, iabeurope.eu} Platforms use different return-on-ad-spend definitions, attribution windows, and treatments of view-through activity. These differences make cross-retailer budget decisions more difficult and can increase manual work for advertisers and agencies. IAB Europe’s Commerce Media Measurement Standards and IAB’s Project Eidos offer frameworks for more consistent reporting. Adoption is still uneven, particularly among smaller networks that have limited engineering capacity and operate across multiple jurisdictions.

Ad Load Saturation and Shopper Experience Erosion

Rising sponsored placement density can reduce the usefulness of search and browsing experiences for shoppers. More paid listings can make it harder for shoppers to distinguish advertising from organic product results. As placements become more prominent, relevance and transparent ranking practices become more important to consumer confidence. Retailers face a tradeoff between selling more advertising inventory and preserving confidence in their recommendations. Offsite extensions and loyalty-based placements can provide alternative inventory, but these approaches still need appropriate controls at high-intent purchase moments. Sustainable growth in the commerce media services market depends on managing advertising density as part of the customer experience rather than treating it only as a revenue variable.

*Our forecasts treat driver/restraint impacts as directional, not additive. The impact forecasts reflect baseline growth, mix effects, and variable interactions.

Segment Analysis

By Platform Ownership Model: First-Party Scale Anchors Network Economics

Owned and Operated Networks held 43.80% of commerce media services market share in 2025, supported by their exclusive access to purchase, loyalty, browsing, and in-store behavior data. Their direct relationship with the shopper supports closed-loop measurement that third-party providers cannot reproduce in the same way. This feature helps advertisers connect campaign activity with sales outcomes and evaluate the value of placements. Amazon also stated that Sponsored Products remained its largest advertising offering. Its Ads Agent reduced cost per impression and cost per acquisition compared with an unassisted setup, according to the company. Regulatory scrutiny of sponsored ranking practices in the United States and Europe may limit how far the largest networks can increase monetization. This gives mid-tier operators an opening to compete on transparency, brand safety, and customer experience.

Integrated Commerce Media Platforms are projected to record the fastest growth at a CAGR of 10.89% from 2026 to 2031. Their model brings onsite, offsite, and in-store inventory into one buying and measurement environment. Brands can use these platforms to plan campaigns across several stages of the commerce journey without relying on separate tools for each channel. This approach can reduce the operational complexity created by isolated owned networks and fragmented third-party supply. Third-Party Networks are also gaining relevance because they aggregate mid-market retailer inventory and provide access through a single demand-side platform connection. That structure can help consumer packaged goods advertisers reach grocery, pharmacy, and convenience retail audiences while managing duplication. White-Label Enablement Platforms remain smaller by direct revenue, but they provide the technical foundation for retailers that lack internal advertising technology teams. Their presence can widen participation in the commerce media services market across the Middle East, Southeast Asia, and Africa.

By Advertising Format: Search Performance Leads, CTV Reshapes the Upper Funnel

Sponsored Products and Sponsored Search Ads accounted for 39.50% of the commerce media services market size in 2025. Their scale reflects broad adoption by brands that use retail search to reach customers already considering a purchase. Search queries inside a transaction environment provide a direct indication of product interest. This makes sponsored search a common entry point for advertisers who are moving performance budgets toward commerce channels. Amazon stated that shoppers using Sponsored Prompts converted more often and spent more on average in a recent quarter. Display Ads continue to serve endemic consumer packaged goods advertisers that need wider brand visibility. Audio Ads and Digital Out-of-Home and In-Transit Ads remain at an earlier stage of adoption in delivery and mobility platforms. IAB Europe’s Flexi Ad Sizes Guidelines are intended to reduce creative production barriers for display campaigns operating across several networks.

Video Ads, including Connected TV, are projected to expand at a CAGR of 10.94% through 2031, the highest rate among advertising formats. IAB expects digital video to account for most total U.S. TV and video advertising spending for the first time in the near term. Connected TV gives retailers a means to use purchase data in a channel that has traditionally supported television-style brand campaigns. Walmart Connect has linked its retail media network with VIZIO’s connected TV platform, allowing viewers to purchase featured products in the same session.^{[3]Walmart, “Walmart Connect Showcases a New Era of Creativity-Powered Commerce at Cannes Lions,” Walmart, walmart.com} This design shortens the distance between brand exposure and a purchase action. Native and Shoppable Content Ads are following a related path by placing commercial messages within social and editorial settings. These formats help the commerce media services market reach audiences outside retail search while retaining a connection to transaction data. Their use also places more importance on transparent disclosures and relevant ad placement.

Geography Analysis

North America held 39.00% of the commerce media services market share in 2025. U.S. retail media advertising spending has grown significantly and is expected to continue expanding. Offsite activation represents a meaningful share of this total. Walmart is aligning Walmart Connect U.S., Walmart Connect International, and Sam’s Club through shared technology and platforms.

Asia-Pacific is the second-largest regional cluster within the commerce media services market. Alibaba’s Alimama platform and JD.com’s Jingzhuntong system anchor a large ecosystem in China, where a coalition including Alibaba and JD.com committed substantial instant retail subsidies. Japan’s domestic retail media sector expanded significantly year over year. Google Japan and BCG estimated that in-store retail media could grow substantially over the long term. Europe is expanding as retailers build consent management and clean-room capabilities, while Carrefour Links is built on a large base of transactions and global customers.

The Middle East is projected to be the fastest-expanding geography at 10.81% CAGR during the forecast period. IAB MENA documented several active retail media networks across the Gulf Cooperation Council. In South America, MercadoLibre reported strong year-over-year advertising revenue growth in U.S. dollars. Africa remains at an earlier stage, where Criteo and Massmart introduced Sponsored Product Ads and Onsite Display Ads in South Africa. These developments extend the commerce media services market into retail systems where mobile performance advertising is becoming more important.