Cod Fish Market Size & Share Analysis - Growth Trends & Forecasts (2025 - 2030)

Global Cod Fish Market Trends and Insights

Growing Demand for Protein-Rich, Low-Fat Seafood

Global protein consumption increased by 40% since 2000, with lean whitefish emerging as a dietary staple. Cod provides 20 g of protein per 100 g serving while containing minimal saturated fat and low mercury levels, making it attractive to health-conscious consumers. Urban lifestyles have increased weekly seafood consumption, with industry surveys indicating that 74% of consumers plan to increase their intake. While restaurant traffic recovered in 2021, at-home consumption remained high, demonstrating the cod market's adaptability across distribution channels. Strong demand continues to support price premiums resulting from harvest limitations, maintaining the cod market's growth momentum.

Government Support for Sustainable Fisheries and Aquaculture

Governments are implementing dual strategies of restricting wild catch quotas while supporting aquaculture development. Norway aims to increase seafood export value by 50% by 2030 through industry collaboration. The United Kingdom's USD 1.75 million (EUR 1.5 million) investment in 2024 in the Sustainable Aquaculture Innovation Centre focuses on disease prevention technologies. Norway's implementation of individual transferable quotas has increased ex-vessel prices, demonstrating the compatibility of economic growth with stock conservation. The Alaska Seafood Marketing Institute's USD 10 million funding request aims to enhance domestic market presence. These policy measures support the cod market's sustained competitiveness.

Convenience-Led Surge in Frozen Cod Product Uptake

The frozen seafood segment is expanding due to improved logistics capabilities and changing consumer cooking preferences. Royal Greenland introduced recyclable packaging in January 2025, addressing regulatory compliance requirements while improving product shelf life. Research demonstrates that storing cod at −40 °C maintains its quality for over 12 months. With home-prepared seafood accounting for 59% of total consumption, the demand for retail freezer space continues to grow. The cod market is gaining additional household consumption opportunities, driving increased market penetration.

Premiumization and Traceability Demand from High-End Channels

High-end restaurants and gourmet retailers require verified product origin. Norwegian skrei maintains higher prices compared to frozen fillets due to its seasonal freshness. The Black Cod Company is developing EU farms focused on Michelin-star restaurant buyers. However, Marine Stewardship Council data indicate minimal price premiums for certain certifications, highlighting the need for refined marketing approaches. Blockchain technology and QR codes provide vessel-to-plate traceability, which is becoming a key differentiator in the cod market. This traceability also helps mitigate trade disruptions, such as China's planned 5% tariff increase on frozen imports in 2025.^{[1]Food and Agriculture Organization, “GLOBEFISH ‒ Market Reports on Groundfish,” FAO, fao.org}

Quota Cuts from Overfishing Reduce Wild Capture Supply

The Barents Sea allocation for 2025 decreased by 31% to 311,587 metric tons, reaching its lowest level since 1950. ICES recommended zero catches for Kattegat cod, except for unavoidable by-catch in the lobster fishery.^{[2]European Union, “Council Regulation on Fishing Opportunities 2025–2026,” eur-lex.europa.eu} Global landings declined from 1.3 million metric tons in 2023 to 1.1 million metric tons in 2024, affecting processors and increasing raw material costs. The Georges Bank biomass remains at 32% of the target level, necessitating a rebuilding plan with restricted commercial quotas through 2027.^{[3]New England Fishery Management Council, “Atlantic Cod Rebuilding Plan Status,” nefmc.org}These reductions constrain supply and increase price volatility throughout the cod market.

Climate Change Shifting Cod Habitats and Productivity

Rising temperatures in the North Sea have reduced food availability, leading to declining cod recruitment, while Barents Sea cod stocks have temporarily increased under current warming conditions. The Marine Stewardship Council's suspension of Northeast Atlantic mackerel certifications demonstrates the governance challenges when fish populations move across national boundaries. In South Korea, warming coastal waters resulted in cod imports of 2,306 metric tons in 2023, reflecting a decline in domestic catches.^{[4]U.S. Department of Agriculture, “Korea: Frozen Cod Imports 2023,” USDA, usda.gov} The Food and Agriculture Organization's models predict reduced maximum catch potential in tropical regions, indicating future protein security risks for countries in lower latitudes. These environmental changes create significant uncertainty for long-term cod market planning and investment decisions.

Geography Analysis

Europe accounts for 34% of global turnover in 2024, supported by its proximity to North Atlantic fishing grounds and established culinary traditions that maintain cod as a regular household meal. Norway dominates with over 20% of the global quota, maintaining an integrated value chain from fishing fleets to processing and retail distribution. However, the 2025 Barents quota reduction to 311,587 metric tons constrains raw material availability, compelling processors to secure farmed alternatives and diverse import sources. While EU quota frameworks through 2026 provide planning stability, enhanced traceability requirements increase operational costs.

The Middle East exhibits the highest growth rate at 6.8% CAGR, with Saudi Arabia's expanding hospitality sector and Turkey's position as a distribution center for Gulf retailers driving demand. Saudi Vision 2030 tourism objectives increase hotel and restaurant seafood consumption, while higher consumer incomes encourage household purchases of chilled and frozen cod. Regional governments' investments in desalination-supported aquaculture facilities may reduce import reliance and alter market dynamics.

North America benefits from Alaska's scientific management approach, with ASMI targeting 50% domestic market share through Responsible Fisheries Management certification and traceability-focused marketing campaigns. While Russian import restrictions benefit U.S. exporters in Europe, Canadian processors lag behind Nordic competitors in automation adoption. In Asia-Pacific, China's January 2025 tariff increase from 2% to 5% on frozen cod redirects trade toward tariff-free nations, particularly in Southeast Asia. South America and Africa remain small-scale cod markets, though improving cold storage infrastructure and increasing middle-class wealth indicate potential growth in the coming decade.