Tunisia Agriculture Market Analysis by Mordor Intelligence
The Tunisia agriculture market size is estimated at USD 3.20 billion in 2025 and is forecast to reach USD 4.12 billion by 2030, reflecting a 5.20% CAGR. This performance confirms the sector’s role as a pillar of economic diversification at a time when Tunisia prioritizes climate resilience and technological upgrading. Multilateral funding, such as the World Bank’s USD 520 million Emergency Food Security Response Project, authorized in March 2024, accelerates technology adoption, irrigation upgrades, and financial inclusion. Cereals and grains retain primacy through concerted self-sufficiency programs that mitigated 2023 drought shocks when 2024 cereal production jumped to 1.5 million metric tons, while annual imports still hover near 3.5 million metric tons. Greenhouse horticulture is expanding rapidly, with tomato processors handling 980,000 metric tons in 2024 and solar-powered facilities lowering energy costs. Meanwhile, chronic water scarcity of 450 m³ per person annually and regional investment gaps underscore the ongoing need for precision irrigation and balanced regional development.
Key Report Takeaways
- By commodity type, cereals and grains led with 31.20% of the Tunisia agriculture market share in 2024, while fruits and vegetables are projected to advance at a 5.20% CAGR through 2030.
Tunisia Agriculture Market Trends and Insights
Drivers Impact Analysis
| Driver | (~) % Impact on CAGR Forecast | Geographic Relevance | Impact Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|
| Government support and subsidy programs | +1.2% | National, with concentrated benefits in northern and central regions | Medium term (2-4 years) |
| Growing domestic demand for cereals | +0.8% | National, with urban centers driving consumption growth | Short term (≤ 2 years) |
| Rising import demand for Tunisian olive oil | +1.1% | Global, with European Union markets as primary destinations | Long term (≥ 4 years) |
| Expansion of greenhouse horticulture footprint | +0.9% | Coastal regions and northern governorates | Medium term (2-4 years) |
| Near-shoring effect of the European Union (EU) Green Deal boosting Tunisian supply chains | +0.7% | Northern Tunisia with spillover to central regions | Long term (≥ 4 years) |
| Adoption of salt-tolerant cereal cultivars and solar-powered desalination | +0.6% | Southern and central arid regions | Long term (≥ 4 years) |
| Source: Mordor Intelligence | |||
Government Support and Subsidy Programmes
The 2025 Finance Law reserved 10 million dinars for small cattle breeders, of which 5 million dinars fund direct subsidies and breeding premiums, complemented by tax exemptions on imported heifers until December 2028. A new social protection fund formalizes agricultural labor, boosting productivity and safety nets. Digital platforms like “Engrais” streamline fertilizer allocation, reducing leakage and lifting the Agriculture in Tunisia market.
Growing Domestic Demand for Cereals
Durum wheat now represents 20% of national wheat output on 48,700 hectares of irrigated land, reflecting a quality shift in consumer preferences. Annual wheat imports costing USD 885 million underscore the urgency of closing yield gaps through mechanization and improved seed varieties. Consumer preference shifts toward organic and locally-sourced products, accelerated by the COVID-19 pandemic, are creating premium market segments that can support higher farm-gate prices.
Rising Import Demand for Tunisian Olive Oil
Olive oil exports earned USD 1.159 billion in the first seven months of the 2023/24 crop year, 89% higher year on year, mainly to Spain[1]Source: Olive Oil Times, “Tunisian Olive Oil Exports Surge in 2024,” oliveoiltimes.com. Although Tunisia enjoys duty-free access for only 56,700 metric tons under EU quotas, organic olive oil shipments exceeding 40,000 metric tons show rising value capture. Date exports worth USD 311 million in 2023 confirm diversified Mediterranean produce competitiveness.
Expansion of Greenhouse Horticulture Footprint
Tomato processors handled 980,000 metric tons across 23 factories in 2024, allocating 94% for paste. Research confirms that photovoltaic-powered ventilation meets optimal tomato growth conditions while cutting energy costs. Buried diffuser irrigation lifted yields by 23% versus surface drip while lowering salinity loads[2]Source: MDPI, “Photovoltaic Solutions for Mediterranean Greenhouses,” mdpi.com. Geothermal heating in Kebili supports year-round horticulture on 16,000 hectares.
Restraints Impact Analysis
| Restraint | (~) % Impact on CAGR Forecast | Geographic Relevance | Impact Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chronic water scarcity and inefficient irrigation networks | -1.8% | National, with severe impacts in central and southern regions | Short term (≤ 2 years) |
| Soil salinity and land degradation in coastal regions | -0.9% | Coastal governorates and irrigated areas | Medium term (2-4 years) |
| Fragmented land-holding limiting mechanization | -0.7% | National, with highest impact in northern and central farming regions | Long term (≥ 4 years) |
| Stricter phytosanitary rules and pest incursions | -0.5% | National, with export-oriented regions most affected | Medium term (2-4 years) |
| Source: Mordor Intelligence | |||
Chronic Water Scarcity and Inefficient Irrigation Networks
Only 8% of cultivable land is irrigated despite agriculture consuming 77% of available water. Over 40% of irrigation draws on stressed aquifers, causing quality decline[3]Source: International Water Association, “Aquifer Stress in North Africa,” iwa-network.org. Dam reserves have slipped since 2017, prompting irrigation caps and shrinking cereal output by 61% in 2023. High distribution losses require capital-heavy modernization that smallholders struggle to finance, restraining the Agriculture in Tunisia market.
Soil Salinity and Land Degradation in Coastal Regions
Intensive greenhouse operations amplify groundwater salinity, with accumulating trace metals reducing water suitability. More than 1 hectare of land is abandoned each year in southern Tunisia due to salinity-linked degradation. Halophyte intercropping and salt-tolerant varieties offer solutions but demand technical know-how and upfront investment.
Segment Analysis
By Commodity Type: Cereals Lead While Horticulture Accelerates
Cereals and grains accounted for 31.20% the Tunisia agriculture market share in 2024 as national food security strategies prioritized wheat self-sufficiency. Durum wheat yields averaged 3.9 metric tons per hectare against a 6.7 metric tons target. The Agriculture market size for cereals in Tunisia is projected to expand further as salt-tolerant barley varieties and deficit irrigation stabilize dryland output. Despite a 2024 recovery, annual wheat imports of 3.5 million metric tons continue to strain the trade balance and emphasize mechanization shortfalls.
Fruits and vegetables represent the fastest-growing segment, posting a 5.20% CAGR through 2030. Tomato paste exports gain from stable processor demand, while olive orchards cover 1.68 million hectares and are on track to deliver 340,000 metric tons in the 2024-25 season. Cash crops led by dates achieved 369,000 metric tons and USD 311 million in export receipts. Pulses and oilseeds remain import-dependent, creating prospects for agronomic upgrades and input service businesses within the Agriculture industry in Tunisia.
Note: Segment shares of all individual segments available upon report purchase
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Geography Analysis
Tunisia agriculture market activity illustrates a pronounced north-south divide. Northern governorates attracted foreign direct investment in six central-southern governorates, mirroring infrastructure disparities. Coastal regions dominate greenhouse horticulture and olive oil processing thanks to export-linked ports. Durum wheat productivity peaks in Jendouba yet trails in Kairouan, revealing efficiency gaps the Agriculture in Tunisia market must address.
Central Tunisia faces volatile rainfall and limited irrigation networks, hampering scaling efforts despite policy incentives. Oasis systems in Kebili leverage geothermal water for 16,000 hectares of date palms, showcasing adaptive resource use. Southern areas contend with high soil salinity, though research on halophytes promises niche expansion. National port upgrades forecast GDP gains of 4-5%, promising lower logistics costs for agricultural exporters.
Regional specialization will intensify as climate pressure nudges growers toward drought-resistant varieties and water-saving irrigation. Balanced development programs aim to steer finance toward interior governorates, unlocking opportunities across the Agriculture in Tunisia market.
Recent Industry Developments
- June 2025: A cabinet meeting chaired by Prime Minister Sara Zaafrani Zenzri approved accelerated fertilizer stock-building, streamlined credit procedures and dedicated energy-supply guarantees for storage facilities ahead of the 2025-2026 cropping year.
- May 2025: The World Bank’s Tunisia Economic Update projected GDP growth of 1.9 % in 2025, citing improved rainfall and agricultural resilience, and reiterated that upgrading port connectivity could lift GDP by 4-5 % through stronger agri-food exports.
- May 2024: Tunisia signed seven bilateral memoranda with China on agriculture, green energy, and health, signaling deeper Eastern cooperation.
Research Methodology Framework and Report Scope
Market Definitions and Key Coverage
Our study defines the Tunisian agriculture market as the annual gross value of all crops and livestock produced within the country, measured at first-sale prices and expressed in constant 2024 U.S. dollars. It embraces production, short-haul handling, and on-farm primary processing while tracking trade flows that shape local price discovery.
Scope exclusion: fisheries, aquaculture, and downstream food manufacturing are analyzed separately and therefore not included here.
Segmentation Overview
- By Commodity Type
- Cereals and Grains
- Production Analysis (Volume)
- Consumption Analysis (Value and Volume)
- Export Analysis (Value and Volume)
- Import Analysis (Value and Volume)
- Price Trend Analysis
- Pulses and Oilseed
- Production Analysis (Volume)
- Consumption Analysis (Value and Volume)
- Export Analysis (Value and Volume)
- Import Analysis (Value and Volume)
- Price Trend Analysis
- Fruits and Vegetables
- Production Analysis (Volume)
- Consumption Analysis (Value and Volume)
- Export Analysis (Value and Volume)
- Import Analysis (Value and Volume)
- Price Trend Analysis
- Cash Crop
- Production Analysis (Volume)
- Consumption Analysis (Value and Volume)
- Export Analysis (Value and Volume)
- Import Analysis (Value and Volume)
- Price Trend Analysis
- Cereals and Grains
Detailed Research Methodology and Data Validation
Primary Research
We held structured interviews and short mobile surveys with growers' cooperatives, grain millers, input dealers, and export-oriented pack-houses across northern irrigated belts and central dryland clusters to test secondary findings, refine price spreads, and validate planting-area intentions.
Desk Research
Mordor analysts first map the market landscape through public datasets such as Tunisia's National Institute of Statistics, FAOSTAT, World Bank commodity balances, and USDA GAIN shipment reports. Trade association bulletins from ONAGRI, regional climate and water-table readings, and peer-reviewed agronomy journals furnish seasonality and yield coefficients. Paid platforms including D&B Hoovers for agribusiness financials and Dow Jones Factiva for policy news help us cross-reference firm-level output shifts. The sources listed illustrate our desk work; many additional repositories were mined before numbers were frozen.
Market-Sizing & Forecasting
A top-down supply-and-utilization model reconstructs value by layering farmgate output, average realized prices, and post-harvest loss factors, which are then corroborated with selective bottom-up checks such as sampled olive-oil crusher throughput and wheat import channel invoices. Key variables include harvested hectares, yield per hectare, import parity pricing, irrigation coverage, fertilizer intensity, and subsidy pass-through ratios. Forecasts deploy multivariate regression blended with scenario analysis around rainfall variance and EU demand elasticity, producing a CAGR and a baseline value.
Data Validation & Update Cycle
Outputs move through variance screening against World Bank value-added series and customs export tallies before senior analyst sign-off. Reports refresh yearly, with interim updates after droughts, tariff shifts, or subsidy revisions.
Why Mordor's Tunisia Agriculture Baseline Delivers Dependable Clarity
Published estimates differ; rival figures often swing with scope choices, conversion rates, or dated inventories. Two widely cited numbers are USD 4.07 billion for 2021 and USD 4.50 billion for 2023.
Key gap drivers include whether horticulture gate value is net or gross, treatment of informal livestock sales, currency base year, and refresh cadence. Mordor normalizes all segments to constant dollars, applies uniform farm-to-gate margins, and updates rainfall-linked volumes every season.
Benchmark comparison
| Market Size | Anonymized source | Primary gap driver |
|---|---|---|
| USD 3.20 B (2025) | Mordor Intelligence | - |
| USD 4.07 B (2021) | Global Consultancy A | Uses production value without subtracting intermediary inputs; older base year |
| USD 4.50 B (2023) | Data Service B | Includes fisheries and forestry; applies nominal FX without inflation adjustment |
These contrasts show why decision-makers lean on Mordor's seasonally refreshed, scope-disciplined baseline that can be traced to transparent variables and repeatable steps.
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Key Questions Answered in the Report
What is the current size of the Tunisia agriculture market?
The Tunisia agriculture market reached USD 3.2 billion in 2025 and is projected to rise to USD 4.12 billion by 2030.
Which commodity category leads the Tunisia agriculture market?
Cereals and grains dominate with a 31.20% Tunisia agriculture market share in 2024 due to self-sufficiency policies and durum wheat expansion.
What is the fastest-growing segment within the Tunisia agriculture market?
Fruits and vegetables are forecast to register a 5.20% CAGR to 2030, supported by greenhouse technology and export demand.
How is water scarcity influencing the Tunisia agriculture market?
Water scarcity removes 1.8 percentage points from forecast CAGR, encouraging precision irrigation, desalination, and drought-tolerant crops.
What strategic investments are shaping future growth?
Multilateral financing, solar and hydrogen projects, and EU near-shoring incentives are channeling capital into irrigation, renewable energy, and value-added processing, bolstering long-term growth prospects for the Tunisia agriculture market.
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